May 17, 2016 12:41:39
April 4W wholesale -9.9% MoM, but Astra market share +7%

·         4W sales in April reached 84,685 units down 9.9% MoM and but 3.8% YoY.

·         YTD 4W sales were 351,911 units, down 3.3% YoY and ~32% of our full-year forecast of 1,100,000 units.

·         Despite the MoM decline in industry wholesale figure in April, Astra’s sales were up 2.5% MoM increasing its market share by 7% MoM to 56%.

·         The main reason for the Astra’s market-share increase in April was because of inventory sell-down, especially by Honda. It looked like to us that Honda was too confident in the recovery in the retail sales, which were not seen in April. Due to the high inventory, our quick channel checks suggest that one can get discount of ~IDR25m for the Honda Mobilio model. The HRV model, which looked very strong in terms of demand (customers used to wait for 3-4 month), now is ready stock with improved features in accessories (bigger screen size for car tape) and also discount of ~IDR10m.

·         We forecast recovery to start in May when we approach fasting month and Hari Raya..