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Jun 04, 2016 18:47:47
Bank Negara Indonesia : Key Takeaways From Bojonegoro Site Visit
Last weekend, BBNI took us with several foreign and local investors on a site visit to Bojonegoro, which had the highest GDP growth of 13.3% in the country last year. By leveraging its close connection with the local government, BBNI is able to tap into the medium-size enterprise and corporate loan segments in the region. We maintain our BUY call and GGM-derived TP of IDR6,200 (34% upside). The stock is currently trading at 1.0x 2016F P/BV (-1SD of its historical mean).
¨ Support from local government. Bojonegoro recorded 13.3% GDP growth in 2015, thanks to its abundant oil & gas reserves. Amid lower commodity prices, the local government has set the minimum wages for villages at only IDR1m (below the minimum wages of IDR1.3m for its city) to stimulate growth in surrounding villages and to attract more local and foreign investors in the non-commodity sector. The local government has also simplified the permit application process for investors under one roof in an effort to achieve more sustainable GDP growth going forward.
¨ More players in local banking landscape. Given its high GDP growth, more banks have opened branches in Bojonegoro. Apart from state-owned enterprise (SoE) banks and regional bank (Bank Jatim), these include private banks eg Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN), Panin (PNBN) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA)). This has led to increased competition in the area. Specifically, we think that Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) is well-positioned due to its strong relationship with the local Government and business owners.
¨ Leveraging its relationship. During our site visit, we met up with one of BBNI’s corporate borrowers – the biggest Wallet bird nest producer in the area. The company started out managing bird nests but has now expanded to the downstream business by producing bird nest bottled beverage using recycled water and by-products of its upstream bird nests. However, we think its downstream business is still at an early stage and would only be profitable in three years’ time at the earliest due to the small market for specialised (bird nest) bottled beverage. Moreover, with the estimated ASP of IDR35,000, its product is relatively expensive in the bottled beverage market given that most Indonesians prefer tea bottled beverage. The second BBNI borrower we visited was a local batik producer, who emphasised that her business is a side job to supplement her full-time employment as a junior high school teacher. This falls under BBNI’s small business segment due its <IDR5bn loan size. On the other hand, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) caters more towards loan sizes of <IDR100m, while Bank Mandiri (BMRI) taps more into the national-scale corporate segment.
¨ Maintain BUY and GGM-derived TP of IDR6,200, which implies 1.3x 2016F P/BV. The stock is currently trading at 1x 2016F P/BV (-1SD of its historical mean). Key risks to our call are:
i. Government intervention risk;
ii. Lower-than-expected GDP growth that may worsen its assets quality. (Eka Savitri)