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P H
@ph
P H
Jul 24,2018 14:22:25

Tobacco
Dividend is the key driver
- If the cigarette stocks continue to be driven by relative dividend yields, GGRM should continue to outperform HMSP.
- 1H18 cigarette industry volume data suggest that HMSP’s volume declined 0.4% vs. GGRM's c.2% yoy volume growth during the period.
- Factoring in a 4% decline in HMSP’s 2018F earnings and GGRM’s higher 2019F capex (airport construction), we estimate GGRM’s yield at c.4% vs. HMSP’s 2.8%.
- Maintain sector Overweight. We now prefer GGRM over HMSP, though we maintain that HMSP is still the better long-term play on cigarette consumption trend.

Dividend yield as key to stock outperformance
In the past three years, GGRM’s share price has outperformed HMSP’s. Our analysis found the relative share price performances of the two stocks correlated strongly with dividend yields. GGRM started to outperform HMSP when its dividend yield rose sharply in 2016, resulting in higher returns vs. HMSP. The normalisation of GGRM’s capex and HMSP’s weak earnings momentum should allow the former to maintain a higher relative dividend yield, in our view.

Smokers continue to prefer high- and mid-tar cigarettes
According to Philip Morris International (PMI), the industry’s volume declined 1.5% yoy in 1H18, reflecting soft consumer purchasing power and higher-than-inflation excise tax hikes on cigarettes. Among the segments, high- and mid-tar cigarettes continued to support the industry’s growth, while hand-rolled and mild segments, and white cigarettes lost popularity.

GGRM consistently seizing market share
The consumers' smoking pattern plays into GGRM’s strength, as evidenced by its ability to expand its volume; much like what happened last year in 2017. Findings from our channel checks suggest that GGRM’s 1H18F volume grew c.2% yoy (vs. industry’s - 1.5%, according to PMI), despite c.8% yoy price increases. We project 1H18 sales growth of c.10% for GGRM vs. c.4% for HMSP. GGRM’s flagship, GG Surya, has been performing well (5M18 volume up 1.5% yoy, according to Nielsen).

HMSP remains a better long-term play
Indonesia smokers would likely shift back to the mild segment when purchasing power normalises; such is the trend globally. Economic uncertainties in the past few years and introduction of the mid-tar segment (effectively discounted cigarettes) led to market share shifting to ‘value’ cigarettes. Producers are incentivised to phase out such products eventually, in our view. HMSP’s firm position in the mild segment suffered, with its flagship A Mild hit (volume down 8% yoy in 1H18). Its 0.3% pt yoy market share gain in 1H18 to 33.2% was driven by low-margin products.

For now, GGRM is a superior stock
Assuming that value cigarettes stay trendy, GGRM should post relatively higher earnings CAGR of c.8% in 2017-20 vs. HMSP’s c.7%. We expect GGRM’s dividend yield in 2019F to remain superior to HMSP’s, unless its payout falls to less than c.43% (past three-year average: 72%). GGRM currently trades at 17x 2018F P/E, a discount of 52% vs. HMSP’s. Meanwhile, the government’s approval of e-cigarettes which have a 57% excise tax and could be sold from Jul 2018, has little impact on GGRM and HMSP, for now.

$GGRM $HMSP $$RMBA $WIIM

hide
P H
Jul 24,2018 14:22:22

Tobacco
Dividend is the key driver
- If the cigarette stocks continue to be driven by relative dividend yields, GGRM should continue to outperform HMSP.
- 1H18 cigarette industry volume data suggest that HMSP’s volume declined 0.4% vs. GGRM's c.2% yoy volume growth during the period.
- Factoring in a 4% decline in HMSP’s 2018F earnings and GGRM’s higher 2019F capex (airport construction), we estimate GGRM’s yield at c.4% vs. HMSP’s 2.8%.
- Maintain sector Overweight. We now prefer GGRM over HMSP, though we maintain that HMSP is still the better long-term play on cigarette consumption trend.

Dividend yield as key to stock outperformance
In the past three years, GGRM’s share price has outperformed HMSP’s. Our analysis found the relative share price performances of the two stocks correlated strongly with dividend yields. GGRM started to outperform HMSP when its dividend yield rose sharply in 2016, resulting in higher returns vs. HMSP. The normalisation of GGRM’s capex and HMSP’s weak earnings momentum should allow the former to maintain a higher relative dividend yield, in our view.

Smokers continue to prefer high- and mid-tar cigarettes
According to Philip Morris International (PMI), the industry’s volume declined 1.5% yoy in 1H18, reflecting soft consumer purchasing power and higher-than-inflation excise tax hikes on cigarettes. Among the segments, high- and mid-tar cigarettes continued to support the industry’s growth, while hand-rolled and mild segments, and white cigarettes lost popularity.

GGRM consistently seizing market share
The consumers' smoking pattern plays into GGRM’s strength, as evidenced by its ability to expand its volume; much like what happened last year in 2017. Findings from our channel checks suggest that GGRM’s 1H18F volume grew c.2% yoy (vs. industry’s - 1.5%, according to PMI), despite c.8% yoy price increases. We project 1H18 sales growth of c.10% for GGRM vs. c.4% for HMSP. GGRM’s flagship, GG Surya, has been performing well (5M18 volume up 1.5% yoy, according to Nielsen).

HMSP remains a better long-term play
Indonesia smokers would likely shift back to the mild segment when purchasing power normalises; such is the trend globally. Economic uncertainties in the past few years and introduction of the mid-tar segment (effectively discounted cigarettes) led to market share shifting to ‘value’ cigarettes. Producers are incentivised to phase out such products eventually, in our view. HMSP’s firm position in the mild segment suffered, with its flagship A Mild hit (volume down 8% yoy in 1H18). Its 0.3% pt yoy market share gain in 1H18 to 33.2% was driven by low-margin products.

For now, GGRM is a superior stock
Assuming that value cigarettes stay trendy, GGRM should post relatively higher earnings CAGR of c.8% in 2017-20 vs. HMSP’s c.7%. We expect GGRM’s dividend yield in 2019F to remain superior to HMSP’s, unless its payout falls to less than c.43% (past three-year average: 72%). GGRM currently trades at 17x 2018F P/E, a discount of 52% vs. HMSP’s. Meanwhile, the government’s approval of e-cigarettes which have a 57% excise tax and could be sold from Jul 2018, has little impact on GGRM and HMSP, for now.

$GGRM $HMSP $$RMBA $WIIM

hide
P H
Jul 24,2018 14:22:22

Tobacco
Dividend is the key driver
- If the cigarette stocks continue to be driven by relative dividend yields, GGRM should continue to outperform HMSP.
- 1H18 cigarette industry volume data suggest that HMSP’s volume declined 0.4% vs. GGRM's c.2% yoy volume growth during the period.
- Factoring in a 4% decline in HMSP’s 2018F earnings and GGRM’s higher 2019F capex (airport construction), we estimate GGRM’s yield at c.4% vs. HMSP’s 2.8%.
- Maintain sector Overweight. We now prefer GGRM over HMSP, though we maintain that HMSP is still the better long-term play on cigarette consumption trend.

Dividend yield as key to stock outperformance
In the past three years, GGRM’s share price has outperformed HMSP’s. Our analysis found the relative share price performances of the two stocks correlated strongly with dividend yields. GGRM started to outperform HMSP when its dividend yield rose sharply in 2016, resulting in higher returns vs. HMSP. The normalisation of GGRM’s capex and HMSP’s weak earnings momentum should allow the former to maintain a higher relative dividend yield, in our view.

Smokers continue to prefer high- and mid-tar cigarettes
According to Philip Morris International (PMI), the industry’s volume declined 1.5% yoy in 1H18, reflecting soft consumer purchasing power and higher-than-inflation excise tax hikes on cigarettes. Among the segments, high- and mid-tar cigarettes continued to support the industry’s growth, while hand-rolled and mild segments, and white cigarettes lost popularity.

GGRM consistently seizing market share
The consumers' smoking pattern plays into GGRM’s strength, as evidenced by its ability to expand its volume; much like what happened last year in 2017. Findings from our channel checks suggest that GGRM’s 1H18F volume grew c.2% yoy (vs. industry’s - 1.5%, according to PMI), despite c.8% yoy price increases. We project 1H18 sales growth of c.10% for GGRM vs. c.4% for HMSP. GGRM’s flagship, GG Surya, has been performing well (5M18 volume up 1.5% yoy, according to Nielsen).

HMSP remains a better long-term play
Indonesia smokers would likely shift back to the mild segment when purchasing power normalises; such is the trend globally. Economic uncertainties in the past few years and introduction of the mid-tar segment (effectively discounted cigarettes) led to market share shifting to ‘value’ cigarettes. Producers are incentivised to phase out such products eventually, in our view. HMSP’s firm position in the mild segment suffered, with its flagship A Mild hit (volume down 8% yoy in 1H18). Its 0.3% pt yoy market share gain in 1H18 to 33.2% was driven by low-margin products.

For now, GGRM is a superior stock
Assuming that value cigarettes stay trendy, GGRM should post relatively higher earnings CAGR of c.8% in 2017-20 vs. HMSP’s c.7%. We expect GGRM’s dividend yield in 2019F to remain superior to HMSP’s, unless its payout falls to less than c.43% (past three-year average: 72%). GGRM currently trades at 17x 2018F P/E, a discount of 52% vs. HMSP’s. Meanwhile, the government’s approval of e-cigarettes which have a 57% excise tax and could be sold from Jul 2018, has little impact on GGRM and HMSP, for now.

$GGRM $HMSP $$RMBA $WIIM

hide
P H
Jul 24,2018 14:22:22

Tobacco
Dividend is the key driver
- If the cigarette stocks continue to be driven by relative dividend yields, GGRM should continue to outperform HMSP.
- 1H18 cigarette industry volume data suggest that HMSP’s volume declined 0.4% vs. GGRM's c.2% yoy volume growth during the period.
- Factoring in a 4% decline in HMSP’s 2018F earnings and GGRM’s higher 2019F capex (airport construction), we estimate GGRM’s yield at c.4% vs. HMSP’s 2.8%.
- Maintain sector Overweight. We now prefer GGRM over HMSP, though we maintain that HMSP is still the better long-term play on cigarette consumption trend.

Dividend yield as key to stock outperformance
In the past three years, GGRM’s share price has outperformed HMSP’s. Our analysis found the relative share price performances of the two stocks correlated strongly with dividend yields. GGRM started to outperform HMSP when its dividend yield rose sharply in 2016, resulting in higher returns vs. HMSP. The normalisation of GGRM’s capex and HMSP’s weak earnings momentum should allow the former to maintain a higher relative dividend yield, in our view.

Smokers continue to prefer high- and mid-tar cigarettes
According to Philip Morris International (PMI), the industry’s volume declined 1.5% yoy in 1H18, reflecting soft consumer purchasing power and higher-than-inflation excise tax hikes on cigarettes. Among the segments, high- and mid-tar cigarettes continued to support the industry’s growth, while hand-rolled and mild segments, and white cigarettes lost popularity.

GGRM consistently seizing market share
The consumers' smoking pattern plays into GGRM’s strength, as evidenced by its ability to expand its volume; much like what happened last year in 2017. Findings from our channel checks suggest that GGRM’s 1H18F volume grew c.2% yoy (vs. industry’s - 1.5%, according to PMI), despite c.8% yoy price increases. We project 1H18 sales growth of c.10% for GGRM vs. c.4% for HMSP. GGRM’s flagship, GG Surya, has been performing well (5M18 volume up 1.5% yoy, according to Nielsen).

HMSP remains a better long-term play
Indonesia smokers would likely shift back to the mild segment when purchasing power normalises; such is the trend globally. Economic uncertainties in the past few years and introduction of the mid-tar segment (effectively discounted cigarettes) led to market share shifting to ‘value’ cigarettes. Producers are incentivised to phase out such products eventually, in our view. HMSP’s firm position in the mild segment suffered, with its flagship A Mild hit (volume down 8% yoy in 1H18). Its 0.3% pt yoy market share gain in 1H18 to 33.2% was driven by low-margin products.

For now, GGRM is a superior stock
Assuming that value cigarettes stay trendy, GGRM should post relatively higher earnings CAGR of c.8% in 2017-20 vs. HMSP’s c.7%. We expect GGRM’s dividend yield in 2019F to remain superior to HMSP’s, unless its payout falls to less than c.43% (past three-year average: 72%). GGRM currently trades at 17x 2018F P/E, a discount of 52% vs. HMSP’s. Meanwhile, the government’s approval of e-cigarettes which have a 57% excise tax and could be sold from Jul 2018, has little impact on GGRM and HMSP, for now.

$GGRM $HMSP $$RMBA $WIIM

hide
P H
Jul 24,2018 14:22:22

Tobacco
Dividend is the key driver
- If the cigarette stocks continue to be driven by relative dividend yields, GGRM should continue to outperform HMSP.
- 1H18 cigarette industry volume data suggest that HMSP’s volume declined 0.4% vs. GGRM's c.2% yoy volume growth during the period.
- Factoring in a 4% decline in HMSP’s 2018F earnings and GGRM’s higher 2019F capex (airport construction), we estimate GGRM’s yield at c.4% vs. HMSP’s 2.8%.
- Maintain sector Overweight. We now prefer GGRM over HMSP, though we maintain that HMSP is still the better long-term play on cigarette consumption trend.

Dividend yield as key to stock outperformance
In the past three years, GGRM’s share price has outperformed HMSP’s. Our analysis found the relative share price performances of the two stocks correlated strongly with dividend yields. GGRM started to outperform HMSP when its dividend yield rose sharply in 2016, resulting in higher returns vs. HMSP. The normalisation of GGRM’s capex and HMSP’s weak earnings momentum should allow the former to maintain a higher relative dividend yield, in our view.

Smokers continue to prefer high- and mid-tar cigarettes
According to Philip Morris International (PMI), the industry’s volume declined 1.5% yoy in 1H18, reflecting soft consumer purchasing power and higher-than-inflation excise tax hikes on cigarettes. Among the segments, high- and mid-tar cigarettes continued to support the industry’s growth, while hand-rolled and mild segments, and white cigarettes lost popularity.

GGRM consistently seizing market share
The consumers' smoking pattern plays into GGRM’s strength, as evidenced by its ability to expand its volume; much like what happened last year in 2017. Findings from our channel checks suggest that GGRM’s 1H18F volume grew c.2% yoy (vs. industry’s - 1.5%, according to PMI), despite c.8% yoy price increases. We project 1H18 sales growth of c.10% for GGRM vs. c.4% for HMSP. GGRM’s flagship, GG Surya, has been performing well (5M18 volume up 1.5% yoy, according to Nielsen).

HMSP remains a better long-term play
Indonesia smokers would likely shift back to the mild segment when purchasing power normalises; such is the trend globally. Economic uncertainties in the past few years and introduction of the mid-tar segment (effectively discounted cigarettes) led to market share shifting to ‘value’ cigarettes. Producers are incentivised to phase out such products eventually, in our view. HMSP’s firm position in the mild segment suffered, with its flagship A Mild hit (volume down 8% yoy in 1H18). Its 0.3% pt yoy market share gain in 1H18 to 33.2% was driven by low-margin products.

For now, GGRM is a superior stock
Assuming that value cigarettes stay trendy, GGRM should post relatively higher earnings CAGR of c.8% in 2017-20 vs. HMSP’s c.7%. We expect GGRM’s dividend yield in 2019F to remain superior to HMSP’s, unless its payout falls to less than c.43% (past three-year average: 72%). GGRM currently trades at 17x 2018F P/E, a discount of 52% vs. HMSP’s. Meanwhile, the government’s approval of e-cigarettes which have a 57% excise tax and could be sold from Jul 2018, has little impact on GGRM and HMSP, for now.

$GGRM $HMSP $$RMBA $WIIM

hide
P H
Jul 10,2018 07:48:46

Indonesia Telco: Pricing is not up in 2Q18, but healthier trends observed vs. 1Q18

We conducted an on-the-ground review of telco tariffs across: 1) traditional channels, and 2) distributors. Our key takeaways are: a) data yields remained down in June vs. May but this is likely due to telco channel stuffing, with June Lebaran actual demand strong especially in rural areas, b) Strong demand is prompting telcos and distributors to raise their ASPs in July, c) starter packs are incrementally deemphasized (vs. reloads) at Telkomsel. Our thesis of a better recovery in 2H18 is starting to take shape; hence, we see 2Q18 as another “wash-out” quarter due to a ‘lost’, subscriber base (see our report “Indo Telco – The State of Play: 1Q18 Wrap up” , 16 May 2018).

All in all, this suggests 2 key findings: a) 2Q18 revenue probably has yet to recover owing to continued data-yield pressure, while subscriber overhang remains due to SIM card deregistration, b) however, the overall trend is definitely getting healthier, especially with market leader Telkomsel since late June deemphasizing high-churn starter packs. This suggests its focus has turned towards lower-churn customers, which is positive for the longer-term tariff trend (ie, it is easier to maintain tariffs in an ecosystem of recharges vs. one of starter packs), and paves the way for trend improvements in 2H18.

Data yield down from average of IDR8k/GB to average of IDR6k/GB in June; but demand was strong during Lebaran. Our research across traditional shops in Jakarta, Jogja, Bandung and Makassar (700+ data points in 3 months) suggests data yields continue to trend lower across different absolute price ranges. Our market research looked at 3 price points i) below IDR25k, ii) IDR25-70k, and iii) above IDR70k. Our key findings are as follows:

1) Data yield overall declined for Telkomsel, EXCL and Fren, while for ISAT, Axis and Tri it is stabilizing-to-rising. In 1Q18 we observe data yields falling sharply to IDR8-10/MB (4Q17: IDR9-14/MB); in 2Q18 our market research suggests a further decline potentially to IDR6-8/MB on a blended basis. A data yield decline is, in our view, natural and we also understand demand (consumption) during Lebaran was especially strong for telco packages, which offsets data the yield decline. Our official view is that tariffs will continue to decline, but at a less rapid pace, which bodes well vs. the 2H17-1H18 rapid-declining tariff season.

2) SmartFren data yield gap significant vs. others. Fren data yield ranges from IDR4k-5.5k/GB or a good 10-20% gap vs. others. Smartfren is the only player we see turning more aggressive in July; we think this is a logical move given Fren’s sparse network and see this is one factor limiting tariff upside continuously. Our meeting with Smartfren suggests they have a peak utilization below 50% (lowest in the sector); indeed the recent OpenSignal June Indonesia report ranks Smartfren’s 4G availability and overall download speed to be the fastest, even above Telkomsel’s. We believe Smartfren’s network does put a cap on overall tariff increases (see next section for more thoughts on Smartfren).

3) Telkomsel likely exited low-priced packages (below IDR25k) in July. This tallies with our market research and we understand it is management’s strategy to shift towards reloads and less churn. We believe this is healthy for the industry, and with the exception of Smartfren, we are indeed seeing less competition in this segment.

$TLKM $ISAT $EXCL $FREN

hide
P H
Jul 10,2018 07:48:46

Indonesia Telco: Pricing is not up in 2Q18, but healthier trends observed vs. 1Q18

We conducted an on-the-ground review of telco tariffs across: 1) traditional channels, and 2) distributors. Our key takeaways are: a) data yields remained down in June vs. May but this is likely due to telco channel stuffing, with June Lebaran actual demand strong especially in rural areas, b) Strong demand is prompting telcos and distributors to raise their ASPs in July, c) starter packs are incrementally deemphasized (vs. reloads) at Telkomsel. Our thesis of a better recovery in 2H18 is starting to take shape; hence, we see 2Q18 as another “wash-out” quarter due to a ‘lost’, subscriber base (see our report “Indo Telco – The State of Play: 1Q18 Wrap up” , 16 May 2018).

All in all, this suggests 2 key findings: a) 2Q18 revenue probably has yet to recover owing to continued data-yield pressure, while subscriber overhang remains due to SIM card deregistration, b) however, the overall trend is definitely getting healthier, especially with market leader Telkomsel since late June deemphasizing high-churn starter packs. This suggests its focus has turned towards lower-churn customers, which is positive for the longer-term tariff trend (ie, it is easier to maintain tariffs in an ecosystem of recharges vs. one of starter packs), and paves the way for trend improvements in 2H18.

Data yield down from average of IDR8k/GB to average of IDR6k/GB in June; but demand was strong during Lebaran. Our research across traditional shops in Jakarta, Jogja, Bandung and Makassar (700+ data points in 3 months) suggests data yields continue to trend lower across different absolute price ranges. Our market research looked at 3 price points i) below IDR25k, ii) IDR25-70k, and iii) above IDR70k. Our key findings are as follows:

1) Data yield overall declined for Telkomsel, EXCL and Fren, while for ISAT, Axis and Tri it is stabilizing-to-rising. In 1Q18 we observe data yields falling sharply to IDR8-10/MB (4Q17: IDR9-14/MB); in 2Q18 our market research suggests a further decline potentially to IDR6-8/MB on a blended basis. A data yield decline is, in our view, natural and we also understand demand (consumption) during Lebaran was especially strong for telco packages, which offsets data the yield decline. Our official view is that tariffs will continue to decline, but at a less rapid pace, which bodes well vs. the 2H17-1H18 rapid-declining tariff season.

2) SmartFren data yield gap significant vs. others. Fren data yield ranges from IDR4k-5.5k/GB or a good 10-20% gap vs. others. Smartfren is the only player we see turning more aggressive in July; we think this is a logical move given Fren’s sparse network and see this is one factor limiting tariff upside continuously. Our meeting with Smartfren suggests they have a peak utilization below 50% (lowest in the sector); indeed the recent OpenSignal June Indonesia report ranks Smartfren’s 4G availability and overall download speed to be the fastest, even above Telkomsel’s. We believe Smartfren’s network does put a cap on overall tariff increases (see next section for more thoughts on Smartfren).

3) Telkomsel likely exited low-priced packages (below IDR25k) in July. This tallies with our market research and we understand it is management’s strategy to shift towards reloads and less churn. We believe this is healthy for the industry, and with the exception of Smartfren, we are indeed seeing less competition in this segment.

$TLKM $ISAT $EXCL $FREN

hide
P H
Jul 10,2018 07:48:46

Indonesia Telco: Pricing is not up in 2Q18, but healthier trends observed vs. 1Q18

We conducted an on-the-ground review of telco tariffs across: 1) traditional channels, and 2) distributors. Our key takeaways are: a) data yields remained down in June vs. May but this is likely due to telco channel stuffing, with June Lebaran actual demand strong especially in rural areas, b) Strong demand is prompting telcos and distributors to raise their ASPs in July, c) starter packs are incrementally deemphasized (vs. reloads) at Telkomsel. Our thesis of a better recovery in 2H18 is starting to take shape; hence, we see 2Q18 as another “wash-out” quarter due to a ‘lost’, subscriber base (see our report “Indo Telco – The State of Play: 1Q18 Wrap up” , 16 May 2018).

All in all, this suggests 2 key findings: a) 2Q18 revenue probably has yet to recover owing to continued data-yield pressure, while subscriber overhang remains due to SIM card deregistration, b) however, the overall trend is definitely getting healthier, especially with market leader Telkomsel since late June deemphasizing high-churn starter packs. This suggests its focus has turned towards lower-churn customers, which is positive for the longer-term tariff trend (ie, it is easier to maintain tariffs in an ecosystem of recharges vs. one of starter packs), and paves the way for trend improvements in 2H18.

Data yield down from average of IDR8k/GB to average of IDR6k/GB in June; but demand was strong during Lebaran. Our research across traditional shops in Jakarta, Jogja, Bandung and Makassar (700+ data points in 3 months) suggests data yields continue to trend lower across different absolute price ranges. Our market research looked at 3 price points i) below IDR25k, ii) IDR25-70k, and iii) above IDR70k. Our key findings are as follows:

1) Data yield overall declined for Telkomsel, EXCL and Fren, while for ISAT, Axis and Tri it is stabilizing-to-rising. In 1Q18 we observe data yields falling sharply to IDR8-10/MB (4Q17: IDR9-14/MB); in 2Q18 our market research suggests a further decline potentially to IDR6-8/MB on a blended basis. A data yield decline is, in our view, natural and we also understand demand (consumption) during Lebaran was especially strong for telco packages, which offsets data the yield decline. Our official view is that tariffs will continue to decline, but at a less rapid pace, which bodes well vs. the 2H17-1H18 rapid-declining tariff season.

2) SmartFren data yield gap significant vs. others. Fren data yield ranges from IDR4k-5.5k/GB or a good 10-20% gap vs. others. Smartfren is the only player we see turning more aggressive in July; we think this is a logical move given Fren’s sparse network and see this is one factor limiting tariff upside continuously. Our meeting with Smartfren suggests they have a peak utilization below 50% (lowest in the sector); indeed the recent OpenSignal June Indonesia report ranks Smartfren’s 4G availability and overall download speed to be the fastest, even above Telkomsel’s. We believe Smartfren’s network does put a cap on overall tariff increases (see next section for more thoughts on Smartfren).

3) Telkomsel likely exited low-priced packages (below IDR25k) in July. This tallies with our market research and we understand it is management’s strategy to shift towards reloads and less churn. We believe this is healthy for the industry, and with the exception of Smartfren, we are indeed seeing less competition in this segment.

$TLKM $ISAT $EXCL $FREN

hide
P H
Jul 10,2018 07:48:46

Indonesia Telco: Pricing is not up in 2Q18, but healthier trends observed vs. 1Q18

We conducted an on-the-ground review of telco tariffs across: 1) traditional channels, and 2) distributors. Our key takeaways are: a) data yields remained down in June vs. May but this is likely due to telco channel stuffing, with June Lebaran actual demand strong especially in rural areas, b) Strong demand is prompting telcos and distributors to raise their ASPs in July, c) starter packs are incrementally deemphasized (vs. reloads) at Telkomsel. Our thesis of a better recovery in 2H18 is starting to take shape; hence, we see 2Q18 as another “wash-out” quarter due to a ‘lost’, subscriber base (see our report “Indo Telco – The State of Play: 1Q18 Wrap up” , 16 May 2018).

All in all, this suggests 2 key findings: a) 2Q18 revenue probably has yet to recover owing to continued data-yield pressure, while subscriber overhang remains due to SIM card deregistration, b) however, the overall trend is definitely getting healthier, especially with market leader Telkomsel since late June deemphasizing high-churn starter packs. This suggests its focus has turned towards lower-churn customers, which is positive for the longer-term tariff trend (ie, it is easier to maintain tariffs in an ecosystem of recharges vs. one of starter packs), and paves the way for trend improvements in 2H18.

Data yield down from average of IDR8k/GB to average of IDR6k/GB in June; but demand was strong during Lebaran. Our research across traditional shops in Jakarta, Jogja, Bandung and Makassar (700+ data points in 3 months) suggests data yields continue to trend lower across different absolute price ranges. Our market research looked at 3 price points i) below IDR25k, ii) IDR25-70k, and iii) above IDR70k. Our key findings are as follows:

1) Data yield overall declined for Telkomsel, EXCL and Fren, while for ISAT, Axis and Tri it is stabilizing-to-rising. In 1Q18 we observe data yields falling sharply to IDR8-10/MB (4Q17: IDR9-14/MB); in 2Q18 our market research suggests a further decline potentially to IDR6-8/MB on a blended basis. A data yield decline is, in our view, natural and we also understand demand (consumption) during Lebaran was especially strong for telco packages, which offsets data the yield decline. Our official view is that tariffs will continue to decline, but at a less rapid pace, which bodes well vs. the 2H17-1H18 rapid-declining tariff season.

2) SmartFren data yield gap significant vs. others. Fren data yield ranges from IDR4k-5.5k/GB or a good 10-20% gap vs. others. Smartfren is the only player we see turning more aggressive in July; we think this is a logical move given Fren’s sparse network and see this is one factor limiting tariff upside continuously. Our meeting with Smartfren suggests they have a peak utilization below 50% (lowest in the sector); indeed the recent OpenSignal June Indonesia report ranks Smartfren’s 4G availability and overall download speed to be the fastest, even above Telkomsel’s. We believe Smartfren’s network does put a cap on overall tariff increases (see next section for more thoughts on Smartfren).

3) Telkomsel likely exited low-priced packages (below IDR25k) in July. This tallies with our market research and we understand it is management’s strategy to shift towards reloads and less churn. We believe this is healthy for the industry, and with the exception of Smartfren, we are indeed seeing less competition in this segment.

$TLKM $ISAT $EXCL $FREN

hide
P H
Jul 10,2018 07:48:46

Indonesia Telco: Pricing is not up in 2Q18, but healthier trends observed vs. 1Q18

We conducted an on-the-ground review of telco tariffs across: 1) traditional channels, and 2) distributors. Our key takeaways are: a) data yields remained down in June vs. May but this is likely due to telco channel stuffing, with June Lebaran actual demand strong especially in rural areas, b) Strong demand is prompting telcos and distributors to raise their ASPs in July, c) starter packs are incrementally deemphasized (vs. reloads) at Telkomsel. Our thesis of a better recovery in 2H18 is starting to take shape; hence, we see 2Q18 as another “wash-out” quarter due to a ‘lost’, subscriber base (see our report “Indo Telco – The State of Play: 1Q18 Wrap up” , 16 May 2018).

All in all, this suggests 2 key findings: a) 2Q18 revenue probably has yet to recover owing to continued data-yield pressure, while subscriber overhang remains due to SIM card deregistration, b) however, the overall trend is definitely getting healthier, especially with market leader Telkomsel since late June deemphasizing high-churn starter packs. This suggests its focus has turned towards lower-churn customers, which is positive for the longer-term tariff trend (ie, it is easier to maintain tariffs in an ecosystem of recharges vs. one of starter packs), and paves the way for trend improvements in 2H18.

Data yield down from average of IDR8k/GB to average of IDR6k/GB in June; but demand was strong during Lebaran. Our research across traditional shops in Jakarta, Jogja, Bandung and Makassar (700+ data points in 3 months) suggests data yields continue to trend lower across different absolute price ranges. Our market research looked at 3 price points i) below IDR25k, ii) IDR25-70k, and iii) above IDR70k. Our key findings are as follows:

1) Data yield overall declined for Telkomsel, EXCL and Fren, while for ISAT, Axis and Tri it is stabilizing-to-rising. In 1Q18 we observe data yields falling sharply to IDR8-10/MB (4Q17: IDR9-14/MB); in 2Q18 our market research suggests a further decline potentially to IDR6-8/MB on a blended basis. A data yield decline is, in our view, natural and we also understand demand (consumption) during Lebaran was especially strong for telco packages, which offsets data the yield decline. Our official view is that tariffs will continue to decline, but at a less rapid pace, which bodes well vs. the 2H17-1H18 rapid-declining tariff season.

2) SmartFren data yield gap significant vs. others. Fren data yield ranges from IDR4k-5.5k/GB or a good 10-20% gap vs. others. Smartfren is the only player we see turning more aggressive in July; we think this is a logical move given Fren’s sparse network and see this is one factor limiting tariff upside continuously. Our meeting with Smartfren suggests they have a peak utilization below 50% (lowest in the sector); indeed the recent OpenSignal June Indonesia report ranks Smartfren’s 4G availability and overall download speed to be the fastest, even above Telkomsel’s. We believe Smartfren’s network does put a cap on overall tariff increases (see next section for more thoughts on Smartfren).

3) Telkomsel likely exited low-priced packages (below IDR25k) in July. This tallies with our market research and we understand it is management’s strategy to shift towards reloads and less churn. We believe this is healthy for the industry, and with the exception of Smartfren, we are indeed seeing less competition in this segment.

$TLKM $ISAT $EXCL $FREN

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P H
Jul 10,2018 07:45:39

Good morning,

Dow rallies more than 300 points as banks post best day since late March

Bank stocks rose at least 2.5 percent, led by Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase.

The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) rose 2.3 percent and posted its best day since March 26, when it gained 3.3 percent.

Equities also got a boost from stronger-than-expected jobs data released last week, which diverted attention away from a global trade war.

Dow.......24777 +320.1 +1.31%
Nasdaq...7756 +67.8 +0.88%
S&P 500..2784 +24.4 +0.88%

FTSE........7688 +70.3 +0.92%
Dax........12544 +47.7 +0.38%
CAC.........5398 +22.3 +0.42%

Nikkei.....22052 +264.0 +1.21%
HSI..........28689 +372.9 +1.32%
Shanghai..2815 +67.9 +2.47%
ST Times..3229 +37.0 +1.16%
 
Indo10Yr..7.7902 -0.1553 -1.95%
INDOBex236.4260 +2.0457 +0.87%
US10Yr........2.86 +0.029 +1.02%
VIX..............12.69 -0.68 -5.09%

USDIndx ....94.077 +0.114 +0.12%
Como Indx198.2340 +0.1817 +0.09%
(Core Commodity CRB)
DJUSCL......68.17 +1.31 +1.96%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index) 

IndoCDS....126.375 -7.29 -5.45%
(5-yr INOCD5) 

IDR........14330 -45 -0.31%
Jisdor....14332 -77 -0.53%
IDR Fut..14321 -8 -0.06%

Euro.........1.1749 -0.0001 -0.009%

TLKM.......27.44 +0.47 +1.74%
(3930)
EIDO.........23.48 +0.57 +2.49%
EEM..........44.19 +0.78 +1.80%

Oil...........74.02 +0.04 +0.05%
Gold ......1258.60 +2.40 +0.19%
Timah...19612.50 +227.50 +1.17%
Nickel...14067.50 +107.50 +0.77%

Coal price.116.10 unch +0%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price.112.75 +0.10 +0.09%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price.101.95 +1.75 +1.75%
(Jui/Rotterdam)
Coal price.101.05 +2.15 +2.17%
(Agt/ Rotterdam)

CPO(Sept) 2268 -12 -0.53%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn...........354.00 -6.25 -1.73%
SoybeanOil 29.26 -0.20 -0.68%
Wheat.......508.00 -7.25 -1.41%

Rubber.......173.90 +5.15 +3.05%
(Tokyo)JPY/kg

Pulp(BHKP) 1050.00 unch +0%
(03Jul - 09Jul)

* : weekly


(DE/ls 10-07-18)
 
***

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P H
Feb 01,2018 19:06:51
Astra International 

($ASII) akan memacu bisnis properti melalui kolaborasi dengan investor Hong Kong (HK) Land untuk proyek-proyek residensial serta komersial strata. Kerja sama patungan ASII dengan HK Land dilakukan dengan komposisi saham masing-masing sebesar 60% berbanding 40%.

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P H
Feb 01,2018 19:06:51
Astra International 

($ASII) akan memacu bisnis properti melalui kolaborasi dengan investor Hong Kong (HK) Land untuk proyek-proyek residensial serta komersial strata. Kerja sama patungan ASII dengan HK Land dilakukan dengan komposisi saham masing-masing sebesar 60% berbanding 40%.

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P H
Oct 23,2017 07:31:39

Bukit Asam ($PTBA)’s strong 3Q17 net profit is above consensus expectations. We think the strong earnings should continue, as high coal prices are likely to be sustained. Based on our discussion with its CFO, the firm is confident that PLN’s request to use a cost-plus margin formula for determining the coal selling price to domestic power plants is unlikely to be implemented. We maintain our assumptions and reiterate BUY with an unchanged IDR17,400 TP (58% upside). Bukit Asam’s FY17F-18F P/Es of 6.8x and 5.8x respectively are the cheapest among our coal universe.



  • Management is confident that the cost-plus margin formula is unlikely to be implemented. Based on our discussion with Bukit Asam’s chief financial officer Mr Orias Petrus Moedak, he is confident that Perusahaan Listrik Negara’s (PLN) request to use a cost-plus margin in determining the coal selling price to domestic coal power plants is unlikely to happen. 
      

  • Using conservative accounting to record coal selling prices to PLN. Bukit Asam booked revenue from selling coal to PLN in 9M17 using the ASP the latter requested for in negotiations. These negotiations are still ongoing.
     
    If the final agreed selling price with PLN in the yet-to-be-signed agreement uses 4Q16 ASP (as per the former agreement), there should be a positive surprise. This is because Bukit Asam would record a higher selling price and make a retroactive adjustment to its revenue from PLN since the start of 2017. 
      
  • Banko Tengah (Sumsel 8) power plant should commence its commercial operation date (COD) in 2021. On 19 Oct, Bukit Asam subsidiary PT Huadian Bukit Asam Power and PLN signed an amendment to their power purchase agreement (PPA) for the 2x620MW Banko Tengah (Sumsel 8) mine mouth coal-fired power plant. The COD of this plant is scheduled for 2021. 
     
    The Sumsel 8 power plant is slated to consume 5.1m tonnes of coal pa, 100% of which would come from Bukit Asam’s coal mine. This should increase its coal sales by 5.1m tonnes (FY17F: 23.1m tonnes) from 2021 onwards.
      
  • 3Q17 earnings are above consensus expectations (9M17: ~77% and ~82% of our and street’s estimates). Bukit Asam booked strong 3Q17 earnings of IDR902bn (+165% YoY, +5.7% QoQ) on the back of higher revenue and gross margins (3Q17: 40%, 2Q17: 37%, 3Q16: 24%). This was partly contributed by a lower stripping ratio in 3Q17.
     
  • Reiterate BUY with an unchanged IDR17,400 TP. We maintain our assumptions and reiterate our BUY call on this counter with an unchanged DCF-derived IDR17,400 TP. This implies P/Es on our FY17F-18F EPS of 10.8x and 9.2x respectively.
     
    Currently, Bukit Asam is trading at FY17F-18F P/Es of 6.8x and 5.8x, respectively, making it the cheapest coal stock in our universe. Key risks are the Government’s decision to change the domestic coal price formula, a delay in expanding railway capacity, a significant drop in coal prices, weaker-than-expected coal demand, and a strengthening IDR. (Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CPA, CMT)
      

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P H
Oct 23,2017 07:31:39

Bukit Asam ($PTBA)’s strong 3Q17 net profit is above consensus expectations. We think the strong earnings should continue, as high coal prices are likely to be sustained. Based on our discussion with its CFO, the firm is confident that PLN’s request to use a cost-plus margin formula for determining the coal selling price to domestic power plants is unlikely to be implemented. We maintain our assumptions and reiterate BUY with an unchanged IDR17,400 TP (58% upside). Bukit Asam’s FY17F-18F P/Es of 6.8x and 5.8x respectively are the cheapest among our coal universe.



  • Management is confident that the cost-plus margin formula is unlikely to be implemented. Based on our discussion with Bukit Asam’s chief financial officer Mr Orias Petrus Moedak, he is confident that Perusahaan Listrik Negara’s (PLN) request to use a cost-plus margin in determining the coal selling price to domestic coal power plants is unlikely to happen. 
      

  • Using conservative accounting to record coal selling prices to PLN. Bukit Asam booked revenue from selling coal to PLN in 9M17 using the ASP the latter requested for in negotiations. These negotiations are still ongoing.
     
    If the final agreed selling price with PLN in the yet-to-be-signed agreement uses 4Q16 ASP (as per the former agreement), there should be a positive surprise. This is because Bukit Asam would record a higher selling price and make a retroactive adjustment to its revenue from PLN since the start of 2017. 
      
  • Banko Tengah (Sumsel 8) power plant should commence its commercial operation date (COD) in 2021. On 19 Oct, Bukit Asam subsidiary PT Huadian Bukit Asam Power and PLN signed an amendment to their power purchase agreement (PPA) for the 2x620MW Banko Tengah (Sumsel 8) mine mouth coal-fired power plant. The COD of this plant is scheduled for 2021. 
     
    The Sumsel 8 power plant is slated to consume 5.1m tonnes of coal pa, 100% of which would come from Bukit Asam’s coal mine. This should increase its coal sales by 5.1m tonnes (FY17F: 23.1m tonnes) from 2021 onwards.
      
  • 3Q17 earnings are above consensus expectations (9M17: ~77% and ~82% of our and street’s estimates). Bukit Asam booked strong 3Q17 earnings of IDR902bn (+165% YoY, +5.7% QoQ) on the back of higher revenue and gross margins (3Q17: 40%, 2Q17: 37%, 3Q16: 24%). This was partly contributed by a lower stripping ratio in 3Q17.
     
  • Reiterate BUY with an unchanged IDR17,400 TP. We maintain our assumptions and reiterate our BUY call on this counter with an unchanged DCF-derived IDR17,400 TP. This implies P/Es on our FY17F-18F EPS of 10.8x and 9.2x respectively.
     
    Currently, Bukit Asam is trading at FY17F-18F P/Es of 6.8x and 5.8x, respectively, making it the cheapest coal stock in our universe. Key risks are the Government’s decision to change the domestic coal price formula, a delay in expanding railway capacity, a significant drop in coal prices, weaker-than-expected coal demand, and a strengthening IDR. (Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CPA, CMT)
      

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P H
Oct 13,2017 12:08:28

Halal – An Earnings Boost Strategy

Over the next two decades, the global Muslim population is expected to rise to almost twice of that of the non-Muslim population. Such growth would trigger the vast development of the halal market. We found that companies, which implement halal practices as part of their strategy, are delivering robust earnings growth with high respective ROAEs, asset turnover, and EBIT margins. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, Mengniu, Indofood CBP, and Malee.

  • Robust Muslim population growth boost halal market. According to Pew Research Centre’s Forum on Religion & Public Life (Pew Study), the global Muslim population is expected to rise to about twice of that of the non Muslim population over the next two decades. We see this demographic growth triggering the vast development of halal products. Based on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the average projected growth of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation’s (OIC) GDP between 2015-2021 is expected at 4.2% pa, faster than the rest of the world’s GDP growth’s 3.6% pa.
     
  • Huge market with tremendous potential. According to the State Of The Global Islamic Economy Report 2016/17 developed and produced by Thomson Reuters, global Muslims spent over USD1.9trn across industries in 2015. This figure is estimated to grow to USD3trn in 2021 (7.9% CAGR). The largest halal products consumption is halal food, which accounted for 62% of the halal market in 2015. Globally, the Muslim population spent a total of USD1.2trn on food & beverage (F&B), while halal-certified F&B products sales were estimated at merely USD415bn as at 2015. This means that there is an ample room for halal certified F&B products to grow, at least to be equal with global Muslim spending figures. Furthermore, Thomson Reuters estimates Muslim spending on F&B to reach USD1.9trn by 2021, a CAGR of 9% from 2015.
     
  • Delivered robust earnings. Our Halal Thematic report consists of companies in the RHB regional universe – included in the respective countries’ securities’ shariah compliant list or Dow Jones Islamic Index – that implement halal practices on some of their products or services. Having the halal certificate is part of these companies’ respective strategies to boost revenue and expand market base. In our universe, we found 13 companies implementing the halal standards, sectors which include banking & finance, F&B, personal care products, hospital, and logistics. In FY18F, these companies are estimated to deliver robust earnings with c.17.4% ROAE and c.25% YoY earnings growth, in average. In terms of productivity, asset turnover is estimated to average at 1.12x with a 13% EBIT margin.
     
  • Top Picks. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, China Mengniu Dairy (Mengniu), Indofood CBP (Indofood), and Malee. Among the companies in our Halal Thematic coverage, Malee offers the highest ROAE and asset turnover, while Matahari Department Stores (Matahari) provides the highest EBIT margin. (Andrey Wijaya)

$ICBP $INDF

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 12:08:28

Halal – An Earnings Boost Strategy

Over the next two decades, the global Muslim population is expected to rise to almost twice of that of the non-Muslim population. Such growth would trigger the vast development of the halal market. We found that companies, which implement halal practices as part of their strategy, are delivering robust earnings growth with high respective ROAEs, asset turnover, and EBIT margins. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, Mengniu, Indofood CBP, and Malee.

  • Robust Muslim population growth boost halal market. According to Pew Research Centre’s Forum on Religion & Public Life (Pew Study), the global Muslim population is expected to rise to about twice of that of the non Muslim population over the next two decades. We see this demographic growth triggering the vast development of halal products. Based on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the average projected growth of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation’s (OIC) GDP between 2015-2021 is expected at 4.2% pa, faster than the rest of the world’s GDP growth’s 3.6% pa.
     
  • Huge market with tremendous potential. According to the State Of The Global Islamic Economy Report 2016/17 developed and produced by Thomson Reuters, global Muslims spent over USD1.9trn across industries in 2015. This figure is estimated to grow to USD3trn in 2021 (7.9% CAGR). The largest halal products consumption is halal food, which accounted for 62% of the halal market in 2015. Globally, the Muslim population spent a total of USD1.2trn on food & beverage (F&B), while halal-certified F&B products sales were estimated at merely USD415bn as at 2015. This means that there is an ample room for halal certified F&B products to grow, at least to be equal with global Muslim spending figures. Furthermore, Thomson Reuters estimates Muslim spending on F&B to reach USD1.9trn by 2021, a CAGR of 9% from 2015.
     
  • Delivered robust earnings. Our Halal Thematic report consists of companies in the RHB regional universe – included in the respective countries’ securities’ shariah compliant list or Dow Jones Islamic Index – that implement halal practices on some of their products or services. Having the halal certificate is part of these companies’ respective strategies to boost revenue and expand market base. In our universe, we found 13 companies implementing the halal standards, sectors which include banking & finance, F&B, personal care products, hospital, and logistics. In FY18F, these companies are estimated to deliver robust earnings with c.17.4% ROAE and c.25% YoY earnings growth, in average. In terms of productivity, asset turnover is estimated to average at 1.12x with a 13% EBIT margin.
     
  • Top Picks. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, China Mengniu Dairy (Mengniu), Indofood CBP (Indofood), and Malee. Among the companies in our Halal Thematic coverage, Malee offers the highest ROAE and asset turnover, while Matahari Department Stores (Matahari) provides the highest EBIT margin. (Andrey Wijaya)

$ICBP $INDF

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 12:08:28

Halal – An Earnings Boost Strategy

Over the next two decades, the global Muslim population is expected to rise to almost twice of that of the non-Muslim population. Such growth would trigger the vast development of the halal market. We found that companies, which implement halal practices as part of their strategy, are delivering robust earnings growth with high respective ROAEs, asset turnover, and EBIT margins. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, Mengniu, Indofood CBP, and Malee.

  • Robust Muslim population growth boost halal market. According to Pew Research Centre’s Forum on Religion & Public Life (Pew Study), the global Muslim population is expected to rise to about twice of that of the non Muslim population over the next two decades. We see this demographic growth triggering the vast development of halal products. Based on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the average projected growth of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation’s (OIC) GDP between 2015-2021 is expected at 4.2% pa, faster than the rest of the world’s GDP growth’s 3.6% pa.
     
  • Huge market with tremendous potential. According to the State Of The Global Islamic Economy Report 2016/17 developed and produced by Thomson Reuters, global Muslims spent over USD1.9trn across industries in 2015. This figure is estimated to grow to USD3trn in 2021 (7.9% CAGR). The largest halal products consumption is halal food, which accounted for 62% of the halal market in 2015. Globally, the Muslim population spent a total of USD1.2trn on food & beverage (F&B), while halal-certified F&B products sales were estimated at merely USD415bn as at 2015. This means that there is an ample room for halal certified F&B products to grow, at least to be equal with global Muslim spending figures. Furthermore, Thomson Reuters estimates Muslim spending on F&B to reach USD1.9trn by 2021, a CAGR of 9% from 2015.
     
  • Delivered robust earnings. Our Halal Thematic report consists of companies in the RHB regional universe – included in the respective countries’ securities’ shariah compliant list or Dow Jones Islamic Index – that implement halal practices on some of their products or services. Having the halal certificate is part of these companies’ respective strategies to boost revenue and expand market base. In our universe, we found 13 companies implementing the halal standards, sectors which include banking & finance, F&B, personal care products, hospital, and logistics. In FY18F, these companies are estimated to deliver robust earnings with c.17.4% ROAE and c.25% YoY earnings growth, in average. In terms of productivity, asset turnover is estimated to average at 1.12x with a 13% EBIT margin.
     
  • Top Picks. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, China Mengniu Dairy (Mengniu), Indofood CBP (Indofood), and Malee. Among the companies in our Halal Thematic coverage, Malee offers the highest ROAE and asset turnover, while Matahari Department Stores (Matahari) provides the highest EBIT margin. (Andrey Wijaya)

$ICBP $INDF

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P H
Oct 13,2017 12:02:27

Kinerja $AISA 1H 2017 Sesuai Estimasi

2Q 2017 Menopang Kinerja 1H 2017
Penjualan PT. Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk. ($AISA) per 1H 2017 turun 7,5% YoY menjadi Rp 3,30 miliar. Penjualan bisnis Rice (Beras) turun 12,2% YoY menjadi Rp 2,1 triliun. Padahal bisnis Rice memberi kontribusi terbesar terhadap total penjualan perseroan, yaitu sekitar 62,4% per 1H17. Sedang penjualan dari bisnis Food Manufacturing hanya tumbuh 5,8% YoY di 1H17 menjadi Rp 1,27 triliun. Perseroan sudah mendivestasi divisi Agribisnis, sehingga tidak mendapat benefit dari kenaikan harga CPO di tahun 2017. Penjualan perseroan per 1H17 itu sesuai dengan estimasi penjualan (gross) perseroan sebesar Rp 3,37 triliun.
Penjualan di 2Q17 turun 3,4% YoY, tetapi lebih tinggi 26,1% QoQ.
Laba yang dapat diatribusikan ke pemilik entitas induk AISA per 1H 2017 turun 25,4% YoY menjadi Rp 191,07 juta. Penurunan laba AISA itu terutama disebabkan oleh turunnya penjualan. Operating income turun 13,8% YoY menjadi Rp 529,93 miliar. Operating Profit Margin dan Net Profit Margin turun masing-masing menjadi 16,1% dan 5,8% di semester I 2017. Gross Profit Margin masih lebih tinggi dibanding 1H16 yaitu 25,2%.

Harga Eceran Tertinggi Beras
Pasca kasus PT. Indo Beras Unggul, anak usaha perseroan, pemerintah akhirnya menetapkan Harga Eceran tertinggi (HET) untuk beras yang berlaku mulai 1 September 2017. Dalam aturan tersebut, HET beras diklasifikasikan berdasarkan jenis beras dan wilayah. Dengan adanya aturan baru itu, maka Peraturan Menteri Perdagangan (Permendag) No. 27 tahun 2017 tentang Penetapan Harga Acuan Pembelian di Petani dan Harga Acuan Penjualan di Konsumen dicabut.

Strategi di Bisnis Beras

Pasca penetapan HET beras, PT. Indo Beras Unggul (IBU) menyatakan akan melakukan penyesuaian kualitas produk berasnya dengan standar beras yang dipersyaratkan. Selain itu Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food berencana melakukan divestasi atas anak usahanya di bisnis beras. Kami memperkirakan divestasi baru dilaksanakan pada tahun 2018, jika disetujui dalam RUPSLB.
Kami menunggu informasi lebih lanjut dari perseroan tentang kelangsungan usaha bisnis perusahaan, terutama bisnis beras, dan strategi perusahaan ke depan. Termasuk rencana divestasi anak usaha di bisnis beras.

PE Rendah, Cerminan Fundamental ?
Saat ini AISA diperdagangkan pada PE 6,66x atau di bawah rata-rata PE 3 tahun di 13,64x. Pada rata-rata PE 3 tahun dan EPS’17est. perseroan Rp 148,63, mentranslasikan harga saham AISA Rp 2030. Berdasarkan konsensus Bloomberg, PE’17F AISA sebesar 7,73x atau paling rendah dibandingkan PE’17F konsensus emiten konsumer lain serta di bawah rata-rata PE’17F sektor konsumer konsensus Bloomberg di 28,32x. Valuasi yang relatif rendah itu lebih mencerminkan ketidakpastian perusahaan saat ini akibat kasus IBU dan penurunan kinerja.
Sejak Mei 2017 harga saham AISA tidak searah dengan IHSG, yang diperkirakan mencerminkan kondisi internal perseroan, dimana kinerja 1Q 2017 turun.

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P H
Oct 13,2017 12:02:27

Kinerja $AISA 1H 2017 Sesuai Estimasi

2Q 2017 Menopang Kinerja 1H 2017
Penjualan PT. Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk. ($AISA) per 1H 2017 turun 7,5% YoY menjadi Rp 3,30 miliar. Penjualan bisnis Rice (Beras) turun 12,2% YoY menjadi Rp 2,1 triliun. Padahal bisnis Rice memberi kontribusi terbesar terhadap total penjualan perseroan, yaitu sekitar 62,4% per 1H17. Sedang penjualan dari bisnis Food Manufacturing hanya tumbuh 5,8% YoY di 1H17 menjadi Rp 1,27 triliun. Perseroan sudah mendivestasi divisi Agribisnis, sehingga tidak mendapat benefit dari kenaikan harga CPO di tahun 2017. Penjualan perseroan per 1H17 itu sesuai dengan estimasi penjualan (gross) perseroan sebesar Rp 3,37 triliun.
Penjualan di 2Q17 turun 3,4% YoY, tetapi lebih tinggi 26,1% QoQ.
Laba yang dapat diatribusikan ke pemilik entitas induk AISA per 1H 2017 turun 25,4% YoY menjadi Rp 191,07 juta. Penurunan laba AISA itu terutama disebabkan oleh turunnya penjualan. Operating income turun 13,8% YoY menjadi Rp 529,93 miliar. Operating Profit Margin dan Net Profit Margin turun masing-masing menjadi 16,1% dan 5,8% di semester I 2017. Gross Profit Margin masih lebih tinggi dibanding 1H16 yaitu 25,2%.

Harga Eceran Tertinggi Beras
Pasca kasus PT. Indo Beras Unggul, anak usaha perseroan, pemerintah akhirnya menetapkan Harga Eceran tertinggi (HET) untuk beras yang berlaku mulai 1 September 2017. Dalam aturan tersebut, HET beras diklasifikasikan berdasarkan jenis beras dan wilayah. Dengan adanya aturan baru itu, maka Peraturan Menteri Perdagangan (Permendag) No. 27 tahun 2017 tentang Penetapan Harga Acuan Pembelian di Petani dan Harga Acuan Penjualan di Konsumen dicabut.

Strategi di Bisnis Beras

Pasca penetapan HET beras, PT. Indo Beras Unggul (IBU) menyatakan akan melakukan penyesuaian kualitas produk berasnya dengan standar beras yang dipersyaratkan. Selain itu Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food berencana melakukan divestasi atas anak usahanya di bisnis beras. Kami memperkirakan divestasi baru dilaksanakan pada tahun 2018, jika disetujui dalam RUPSLB.
Kami menunggu informasi lebih lanjut dari perseroan tentang kelangsungan usaha bisnis perusahaan, terutama bisnis beras, dan strategi perusahaan ke depan. Termasuk rencana divestasi anak usaha di bisnis beras.

PE Rendah, Cerminan Fundamental ?
Saat ini AISA diperdagangkan pada PE 6,66x atau di bawah rata-rata PE 3 tahun di 13,64x. Pada rata-rata PE 3 tahun dan EPS’17est. perseroan Rp 148,63, mentranslasikan harga saham AISA Rp 2030. Berdasarkan konsensus Bloomberg, PE’17F AISA sebesar 7,73x atau paling rendah dibandingkan PE’17F konsensus emiten konsumer lain serta di bawah rata-rata PE’17F sektor konsumer konsensus Bloomberg di 28,32x. Valuasi yang relatif rendah itu lebih mencerminkan ketidakpastian perusahaan saat ini akibat kasus IBU dan penurunan kinerja.
Sejak Mei 2017 harga saham AISA tidak searah dengan IHSG, yang diperkirakan mencerminkan kondisi internal perseroan, dimana kinerja 1Q 2017 turun.

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