Sign up to SahamTalk to save a watchlist for easy access to your favorite stocks
P H
@ph
P H
Jul 10,2018 07:48:46

Indonesia Telco: Pricing is not up in 2Q18, but healthier trends observed vs. 1Q18

We conducted an on-the-ground review of telco tariffs across: 1) traditional channels, and 2) distributors. Our key takeaways are: a) data yields remained down in June vs. May but this is likely due to telco channel stuffing, with June Lebaran actual demand strong especially in rural areas, b) Strong demand is prompting telcos and distributors to raise their ASPs in July, c) starter packs are incrementally deemphasized (vs. reloads) at Telkomsel. Our thesis of a better recovery in 2H18 is starting to take shape; hence, we see 2Q18 as another “wash-out” quarter due to a ‘lost’, subscriber base (see our report “Indo Telco – The State of Play: 1Q18 Wrap up” , 16 May 2018).

All in all, this suggests 2 key findings: a) 2Q18 revenue probably has yet to recover owing to continued data-yield pressure, while subscriber overhang remains due to SIM card deregistration, b) however, the overall trend is definitely getting healthier, especially with market leader Telkomsel since late June deemphasizing high-churn starter packs. This suggests its focus has turned towards lower-churn customers, which is positive for the longer-term tariff trend (ie, it is easier to maintain tariffs in an ecosystem of recharges vs. one of starter packs), and paves the way for trend improvements in 2H18.

Data yield down from average of IDR8k/GB to average of IDR6k/GB in June; but demand was strong during Lebaran. Our research across traditional shops in Jakarta, Jogja, Bandung and Makassar (700+ data points in 3 months) suggests data yields continue to trend lower across different absolute price ranges. Our market research looked at 3 price points i) below IDR25k, ii) IDR25-70k, and iii) above IDR70k. Our key findings are as follows:

1) Data yield overall declined for Telkomsel, EXCL and Fren, while for ISAT, Axis and Tri it is stabilizing-to-rising. In 1Q18 we observe data yields falling sharply to IDR8-10/MB (4Q17: IDR9-14/MB); in 2Q18 our market research suggests a further decline potentially to IDR6-8/MB on a blended basis. A data yield decline is, in our view, natural and we also understand demand (consumption) during Lebaran was especially strong for telco packages, which offsets data the yield decline. Our official view is that tariffs will continue to decline, but at a less rapid pace, which bodes well vs. the 2H17-1H18 rapid-declining tariff season.

2) SmartFren data yield gap significant vs. others. Fren data yield ranges from IDR4k-5.5k/GB or a good 10-20% gap vs. others. Smartfren is the only player we see turning more aggressive in July; we think this is a logical move given Fren’s sparse network and see this is one factor limiting tariff upside continuously. Our meeting with Smartfren suggests they have a peak utilization below 50% (lowest in the sector); indeed the recent OpenSignal June Indonesia report ranks Smartfren’s 4G availability and overall download speed to be the fastest, even above Telkomsel’s. We believe Smartfren’s network does put a cap on overall tariff increases (see next section for more thoughts on Smartfren).

3) Telkomsel likely exited low-priced packages (below IDR25k) in July. This tallies with our market research and we understand it is management’s strategy to shift towards reloads and less churn. We believe this is healthy for the industry, and with the exception of Smartfren, we are indeed seeing less competition in this segment.

$TLKM $ISAT $EXCL $FREN

hide
P H
Jul 10,2018 07:48:46

Indonesia Telco: Pricing is not up in 2Q18, but healthier trends observed vs. 1Q18

We conducted an on-the-ground review of telco tariffs across: 1) traditional channels, and 2) distributors. Our key takeaways are: a) data yields remained down in June vs. May but this is likely due to telco channel stuffing, with June Lebaran actual demand strong especially in rural areas, b) Strong demand is prompting telcos and distributors to raise their ASPs in July, c) starter packs are incrementally deemphasized (vs. reloads) at Telkomsel. Our thesis of a better recovery in 2H18 is starting to take shape; hence, we see 2Q18 as another “wash-out” quarter due to a ‘lost’, subscriber base (see our report “Indo Telco – The State of Play: 1Q18 Wrap up” , 16 May 2018).

All in all, this suggests 2 key findings: a) 2Q18 revenue probably has yet to recover owing to continued data-yield pressure, while subscriber overhang remains due to SIM card deregistration, b) however, the overall trend is definitely getting healthier, especially with market leader Telkomsel since late June deemphasizing high-churn starter packs. This suggests its focus has turned towards lower-churn customers, which is positive for the longer-term tariff trend (ie, it is easier to maintain tariffs in an ecosystem of recharges vs. one of starter packs), and paves the way for trend improvements in 2H18.

Data yield down from average of IDR8k/GB to average of IDR6k/GB in June; but demand was strong during Lebaran. Our research across traditional shops in Jakarta, Jogja, Bandung and Makassar (700+ data points in 3 months) suggests data yields continue to trend lower across different absolute price ranges. Our market research looked at 3 price points i) below IDR25k, ii) IDR25-70k, and iii) above IDR70k. Our key findings are as follows:

1) Data yield overall declined for Telkomsel, EXCL and Fren, while for ISAT, Axis and Tri it is stabilizing-to-rising. In 1Q18 we observe data yields falling sharply to IDR8-10/MB (4Q17: IDR9-14/MB); in 2Q18 our market research suggests a further decline potentially to IDR6-8/MB on a blended basis. A data yield decline is, in our view, natural and we also understand demand (consumption) during Lebaran was especially strong for telco packages, which offsets data the yield decline. Our official view is that tariffs will continue to decline, but at a less rapid pace, which bodes well vs. the 2H17-1H18 rapid-declining tariff season.

2) SmartFren data yield gap significant vs. others. Fren data yield ranges from IDR4k-5.5k/GB or a good 10-20% gap vs. others. Smartfren is the only player we see turning more aggressive in July; we think this is a logical move given Fren’s sparse network and see this is one factor limiting tariff upside continuously. Our meeting with Smartfren suggests they have a peak utilization below 50% (lowest in the sector); indeed the recent OpenSignal June Indonesia report ranks Smartfren’s 4G availability and overall download speed to be the fastest, even above Telkomsel’s. We believe Smartfren’s network does put a cap on overall tariff increases (see next section for more thoughts on Smartfren).

3) Telkomsel likely exited low-priced packages (below IDR25k) in July. This tallies with our market research and we understand it is management’s strategy to shift towards reloads and less churn. We believe this is healthy for the industry, and with the exception of Smartfren, we are indeed seeing less competition in this segment.

$TLKM $ISAT $EXCL $FREN

hide
P H
Jul 10,2018 07:48:46

Indonesia Telco: Pricing is not up in 2Q18, but healthier trends observed vs. 1Q18

We conducted an on-the-ground review of telco tariffs across: 1) traditional channels, and 2) distributors. Our key takeaways are: a) data yields remained down in June vs. May but this is likely due to telco channel stuffing, with June Lebaran actual demand strong especially in rural areas, b) Strong demand is prompting telcos and distributors to raise their ASPs in July, c) starter packs are incrementally deemphasized (vs. reloads) at Telkomsel. Our thesis of a better recovery in 2H18 is starting to take shape; hence, we see 2Q18 as another “wash-out” quarter due to a ‘lost’, subscriber base (see our report “Indo Telco – The State of Play: 1Q18 Wrap up” , 16 May 2018).

All in all, this suggests 2 key findings: a) 2Q18 revenue probably has yet to recover owing to continued data-yield pressure, while subscriber overhang remains due to SIM card deregistration, b) however, the overall trend is definitely getting healthier, especially with market leader Telkomsel since late June deemphasizing high-churn starter packs. This suggests its focus has turned towards lower-churn customers, which is positive for the longer-term tariff trend (ie, it is easier to maintain tariffs in an ecosystem of recharges vs. one of starter packs), and paves the way for trend improvements in 2H18.

Data yield down from average of IDR8k/GB to average of IDR6k/GB in June; but demand was strong during Lebaran. Our research across traditional shops in Jakarta, Jogja, Bandung and Makassar (700+ data points in 3 months) suggests data yields continue to trend lower across different absolute price ranges. Our market research looked at 3 price points i) below IDR25k, ii) IDR25-70k, and iii) above IDR70k. Our key findings are as follows:

1) Data yield overall declined for Telkomsel, EXCL and Fren, while for ISAT, Axis and Tri it is stabilizing-to-rising. In 1Q18 we observe data yields falling sharply to IDR8-10/MB (4Q17: IDR9-14/MB); in 2Q18 our market research suggests a further decline potentially to IDR6-8/MB on a blended basis. A data yield decline is, in our view, natural and we also understand demand (consumption) during Lebaran was especially strong for telco packages, which offsets data the yield decline. Our official view is that tariffs will continue to decline, but at a less rapid pace, which bodes well vs. the 2H17-1H18 rapid-declining tariff season.

2) SmartFren data yield gap significant vs. others. Fren data yield ranges from IDR4k-5.5k/GB or a good 10-20% gap vs. others. Smartfren is the only player we see turning more aggressive in July; we think this is a logical move given Fren’s sparse network and see this is one factor limiting tariff upside continuously. Our meeting with Smartfren suggests they have a peak utilization below 50% (lowest in the sector); indeed the recent OpenSignal June Indonesia report ranks Smartfren’s 4G availability and overall download speed to be the fastest, even above Telkomsel’s. We believe Smartfren’s network does put a cap on overall tariff increases (see next section for more thoughts on Smartfren).

3) Telkomsel likely exited low-priced packages (below IDR25k) in July. This tallies with our market research and we understand it is management’s strategy to shift towards reloads and less churn. We believe this is healthy for the industry, and with the exception of Smartfren, we are indeed seeing less competition in this segment.

$TLKM $ISAT $EXCL $FREN

hide
P H
Jul 10,2018 07:48:46

Indonesia Telco: Pricing is not up in 2Q18, but healthier trends observed vs. 1Q18

We conducted an on-the-ground review of telco tariffs across: 1) traditional channels, and 2) distributors. Our key takeaways are: a) data yields remained down in June vs. May but this is likely due to telco channel stuffing, with June Lebaran actual demand strong especially in rural areas, b) Strong demand is prompting telcos and distributors to raise their ASPs in July, c) starter packs are incrementally deemphasized (vs. reloads) at Telkomsel. Our thesis of a better recovery in 2H18 is starting to take shape; hence, we see 2Q18 as another “wash-out” quarter due to a ‘lost’, subscriber base (see our report “Indo Telco – The State of Play: 1Q18 Wrap up” , 16 May 2018).

All in all, this suggests 2 key findings: a) 2Q18 revenue probably has yet to recover owing to continued data-yield pressure, while subscriber overhang remains due to SIM card deregistration, b) however, the overall trend is definitely getting healthier, especially with market leader Telkomsel since late June deemphasizing high-churn starter packs. This suggests its focus has turned towards lower-churn customers, which is positive for the longer-term tariff trend (ie, it is easier to maintain tariffs in an ecosystem of recharges vs. one of starter packs), and paves the way for trend improvements in 2H18.

Data yield down from average of IDR8k/GB to average of IDR6k/GB in June; but demand was strong during Lebaran. Our research across traditional shops in Jakarta, Jogja, Bandung and Makassar (700+ data points in 3 months) suggests data yields continue to trend lower across different absolute price ranges. Our market research looked at 3 price points i) below IDR25k, ii) IDR25-70k, and iii) above IDR70k. Our key findings are as follows:

1) Data yield overall declined for Telkomsel, EXCL and Fren, while for ISAT, Axis and Tri it is stabilizing-to-rising. In 1Q18 we observe data yields falling sharply to IDR8-10/MB (4Q17: IDR9-14/MB); in 2Q18 our market research suggests a further decline potentially to IDR6-8/MB on a blended basis. A data yield decline is, in our view, natural and we also understand demand (consumption) during Lebaran was especially strong for telco packages, which offsets data the yield decline. Our official view is that tariffs will continue to decline, but at a less rapid pace, which bodes well vs. the 2H17-1H18 rapid-declining tariff season.

2) SmartFren data yield gap significant vs. others. Fren data yield ranges from IDR4k-5.5k/GB or a good 10-20% gap vs. others. Smartfren is the only player we see turning more aggressive in July; we think this is a logical move given Fren’s sparse network and see this is one factor limiting tariff upside continuously. Our meeting with Smartfren suggests they have a peak utilization below 50% (lowest in the sector); indeed the recent OpenSignal June Indonesia report ranks Smartfren’s 4G availability and overall download speed to be the fastest, even above Telkomsel’s. We believe Smartfren’s network does put a cap on overall tariff increases (see next section for more thoughts on Smartfren).

3) Telkomsel likely exited low-priced packages (below IDR25k) in July. This tallies with our market research and we understand it is management’s strategy to shift towards reloads and less churn. We believe this is healthy for the industry, and with the exception of Smartfren, we are indeed seeing less competition in this segment.

$TLKM $ISAT $EXCL $FREN

hide
P H
Jul 10,2018 07:48:46

Indonesia Telco: Pricing is not up in 2Q18, but healthier trends observed vs. 1Q18

We conducted an on-the-ground review of telco tariffs across: 1) traditional channels, and 2) distributors. Our key takeaways are: a) data yields remained down in June vs. May but this is likely due to telco channel stuffing, with June Lebaran actual demand strong especially in rural areas, b) Strong demand is prompting telcos and distributors to raise their ASPs in July, c) starter packs are incrementally deemphasized (vs. reloads) at Telkomsel. Our thesis of a better recovery in 2H18 is starting to take shape; hence, we see 2Q18 as another “wash-out” quarter due to a ‘lost’, subscriber base (see our report “Indo Telco – The State of Play: 1Q18 Wrap up” , 16 May 2018).

All in all, this suggests 2 key findings: a) 2Q18 revenue probably has yet to recover owing to continued data-yield pressure, while subscriber overhang remains due to SIM card deregistration, b) however, the overall trend is definitely getting healthier, especially with market leader Telkomsel since late June deemphasizing high-churn starter packs. This suggests its focus has turned towards lower-churn customers, which is positive for the longer-term tariff trend (ie, it is easier to maintain tariffs in an ecosystem of recharges vs. one of starter packs), and paves the way for trend improvements in 2H18.

Data yield down from average of IDR8k/GB to average of IDR6k/GB in June; but demand was strong during Lebaran. Our research across traditional shops in Jakarta, Jogja, Bandung and Makassar (700+ data points in 3 months) suggests data yields continue to trend lower across different absolute price ranges. Our market research looked at 3 price points i) below IDR25k, ii) IDR25-70k, and iii) above IDR70k. Our key findings are as follows:

1) Data yield overall declined for Telkomsel, EXCL and Fren, while for ISAT, Axis and Tri it is stabilizing-to-rising. In 1Q18 we observe data yields falling sharply to IDR8-10/MB (4Q17: IDR9-14/MB); in 2Q18 our market research suggests a further decline potentially to IDR6-8/MB on a blended basis. A data yield decline is, in our view, natural and we also understand demand (consumption) during Lebaran was especially strong for telco packages, which offsets data the yield decline. Our official view is that tariffs will continue to decline, but at a less rapid pace, which bodes well vs. the 2H17-1H18 rapid-declining tariff season.

2) SmartFren data yield gap significant vs. others. Fren data yield ranges from IDR4k-5.5k/GB or a good 10-20% gap vs. others. Smartfren is the only player we see turning more aggressive in July; we think this is a logical move given Fren’s sparse network and see this is one factor limiting tariff upside continuously. Our meeting with Smartfren suggests they have a peak utilization below 50% (lowest in the sector); indeed the recent OpenSignal June Indonesia report ranks Smartfren’s 4G availability and overall download speed to be the fastest, even above Telkomsel’s. We believe Smartfren’s network does put a cap on overall tariff increases (see next section for more thoughts on Smartfren).

3) Telkomsel likely exited low-priced packages (below IDR25k) in July. This tallies with our market research and we understand it is management’s strategy to shift towards reloads and less churn. We believe this is healthy for the industry, and with the exception of Smartfren, we are indeed seeing less competition in this segment.

$TLKM $ISAT $EXCL $FREN

hide
P H
Jul 10,2018 07:45:39

Good morning,

Dow rallies more than 300 points as banks post best day since late March

Bank stocks rose at least 2.5 percent, led by Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase.

The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) rose 2.3 percent and posted its best day since March 26, when it gained 3.3 percent.

Equities also got a boost from stronger-than-expected jobs data released last week, which diverted attention away from a global trade war.

Dow.......24777 +320.1 +1.31%
Nasdaq...7756 +67.8 +0.88%
S&P 500..2784 +24.4 +0.88%

FTSE........7688 +70.3 +0.92%
Dax........12544 +47.7 +0.38%
CAC.........5398 +22.3 +0.42%

Nikkei.....22052 +264.0 +1.21%
HSI..........28689 +372.9 +1.32%
Shanghai..2815 +67.9 +2.47%
ST Times..3229 +37.0 +1.16%
 
Indo10Yr..7.7902 -0.1553 -1.95%
INDOBex236.4260 +2.0457 +0.87%
US10Yr........2.86 +0.029 +1.02%
VIX..............12.69 -0.68 -5.09%

USDIndx ....94.077 +0.114 +0.12%
Como Indx198.2340 +0.1817 +0.09%
(Core Commodity CRB)
DJUSCL......68.17 +1.31 +1.96%
(Dow Jones US Coal Index) 

IndoCDS....126.375 -7.29 -5.45%
(5-yr INOCD5) 

IDR........14330 -45 -0.31%
Jisdor....14332 -77 -0.53%
IDR Fut..14321 -8 -0.06%

Euro.........1.1749 -0.0001 -0.009%

TLKM.......27.44 +0.47 +1.74%
(3930)
EIDO.........23.48 +0.57 +2.49%
EEM..........44.19 +0.78 +1.80%

Oil...........74.02 +0.04 +0.05%
Gold ......1258.60 +2.40 +0.19%
Timah...19612.50 +227.50 +1.17%
Nickel...14067.50 +107.50 +0.77%

Coal price.116.10 unch +0%
(Jul/Newcastle)
Coal price.112.75 +0.10 +0.09%
(Agt/Newcastle)
Coal price.101.95 +1.75 +1.75%
(Jui/Rotterdam)
Coal price.101.05 +2.15 +2.17%
(Agt/ Rotterdam)

CPO(Sept) 2268 -12 -0.53%
(Source: bursamalaysia.com)
Corn...........354.00 -6.25 -1.73%
SoybeanOil 29.26 -0.20 -0.68%
Wheat.......508.00 -7.25 -1.41%

Rubber.......173.90 +5.15 +3.05%
(Tokyo)JPY/kg

Pulp(BHKP) 1050.00 unch +0%
(03Jul - 09Jul)

* : weekly


(DE/ls 10-07-18)
 
***

hide
P H
Feb 01,2018 19:06:51
Astra International 

($ASII) akan memacu bisnis properti melalui kolaborasi dengan investor Hong Kong (HK) Land untuk proyek-proyek residensial serta komersial strata. Kerja sama patungan ASII dengan HK Land dilakukan dengan komposisi saham masing-masing sebesar 60% berbanding 40%.

hide
P H
Feb 01,2018 19:06:51
Astra International 

($ASII) akan memacu bisnis properti melalui kolaborasi dengan investor Hong Kong (HK) Land untuk proyek-proyek residensial serta komersial strata. Kerja sama patungan ASII dengan HK Land dilakukan dengan komposisi saham masing-masing sebesar 60% berbanding 40%.

hide
P H
Oct 23,2017 07:31:39

Bukit Asam ($PTBA)’s strong 3Q17 net profit is above consensus expectations. We think the strong earnings should continue, as high coal prices are likely to be sustained. Based on our discussion with its CFO, the firm is confident that PLN’s request to use a cost-plus margin formula for determining the coal selling price to domestic power plants is unlikely to be implemented. We maintain our assumptions and reiterate BUY with an unchanged IDR17,400 TP (58% upside). Bukit Asam’s FY17F-18F P/Es of 6.8x and 5.8x respectively are the cheapest among our coal universe.



  • Management is confident that the cost-plus margin formula is unlikely to be implemented. Based on our discussion with Bukit Asam’s chief financial officer Mr Orias Petrus Moedak, he is confident that Perusahaan Listrik Negara’s (PLN) request to use a cost-plus margin in determining the coal selling price to domestic coal power plants is unlikely to happen. 
      

  • Using conservative accounting to record coal selling prices to PLN. Bukit Asam booked revenue from selling coal to PLN in 9M17 using the ASP the latter requested for in negotiations. These negotiations are still ongoing.
     
    If the final agreed selling price with PLN in the yet-to-be-signed agreement uses 4Q16 ASP (as per the former agreement), there should be a positive surprise. This is because Bukit Asam would record a higher selling price and make a retroactive adjustment to its revenue from PLN since the start of 2017. 
      
  • Banko Tengah (Sumsel 8) power plant should commence its commercial operation date (COD) in 2021. On 19 Oct, Bukit Asam subsidiary PT Huadian Bukit Asam Power and PLN signed an amendment to their power purchase agreement (PPA) for the 2x620MW Banko Tengah (Sumsel 8) mine mouth coal-fired power plant. The COD of this plant is scheduled for 2021. 
     
    The Sumsel 8 power plant is slated to consume 5.1m tonnes of coal pa, 100% of which would come from Bukit Asam’s coal mine. This should increase its coal sales by 5.1m tonnes (FY17F: 23.1m tonnes) from 2021 onwards.
      
  • 3Q17 earnings are above consensus expectations (9M17: ~77% and ~82% of our and street’s estimates). Bukit Asam booked strong 3Q17 earnings of IDR902bn (+165% YoY, +5.7% QoQ) on the back of higher revenue and gross margins (3Q17: 40%, 2Q17: 37%, 3Q16: 24%). This was partly contributed by a lower stripping ratio in 3Q17.
     
  • Reiterate BUY with an unchanged IDR17,400 TP. We maintain our assumptions and reiterate our BUY call on this counter with an unchanged DCF-derived IDR17,400 TP. This implies P/Es on our FY17F-18F EPS of 10.8x and 9.2x respectively.
     
    Currently, Bukit Asam is trading at FY17F-18F P/Es of 6.8x and 5.8x, respectively, making it the cheapest coal stock in our universe. Key risks are the Government’s decision to change the domestic coal price formula, a delay in expanding railway capacity, a significant drop in coal prices, weaker-than-expected coal demand, and a strengthening IDR. (Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CPA, CMT)
      

hide
P H
Oct 23,2017 07:31:39

Bukit Asam ($PTBA)’s strong 3Q17 net profit is above consensus expectations. We think the strong earnings should continue, as high coal prices are likely to be sustained. Based on our discussion with its CFO, the firm is confident that PLN’s request to use a cost-plus margin formula for determining the coal selling price to domestic power plants is unlikely to be implemented. We maintain our assumptions and reiterate BUY with an unchanged IDR17,400 TP (58% upside). Bukit Asam’s FY17F-18F P/Es of 6.8x and 5.8x respectively are the cheapest among our coal universe.



  • Management is confident that the cost-plus margin formula is unlikely to be implemented. Based on our discussion with Bukit Asam’s chief financial officer Mr Orias Petrus Moedak, he is confident that Perusahaan Listrik Negara’s (PLN) request to use a cost-plus margin in determining the coal selling price to domestic coal power plants is unlikely to happen. 
      

  • Using conservative accounting to record coal selling prices to PLN. Bukit Asam booked revenue from selling coal to PLN in 9M17 using the ASP the latter requested for in negotiations. These negotiations are still ongoing.
     
    If the final agreed selling price with PLN in the yet-to-be-signed agreement uses 4Q16 ASP (as per the former agreement), there should be a positive surprise. This is because Bukit Asam would record a higher selling price and make a retroactive adjustment to its revenue from PLN since the start of 2017. 
      
  • Banko Tengah (Sumsel 8) power plant should commence its commercial operation date (COD) in 2021. On 19 Oct, Bukit Asam subsidiary PT Huadian Bukit Asam Power and PLN signed an amendment to their power purchase agreement (PPA) for the 2x620MW Banko Tengah (Sumsel 8) mine mouth coal-fired power plant. The COD of this plant is scheduled for 2021. 
     
    The Sumsel 8 power plant is slated to consume 5.1m tonnes of coal pa, 100% of which would come from Bukit Asam’s coal mine. This should increase its coal sales by 5.1m tonnes (FY17F: 23.1m tonnes) from 2021 onwards.
      
  • 3Q17 earnings are above consensus expectations (9M17: ~77% and ~82% of our and street’s estimates). Bukit Asam booked strong 3Q17 earnings of IDR902bn (+165% YoY, +5.7% QoQ) on the back of higher revenue and gross margins (3Q17: 40%, 2Q17: 37%, 3Q16: 24%). This was partly contributed by a lower stripping ratio in 3Q17.
     
  • Reiterate BUY with an unchanged IDR17,400 TP. We maintain our assumptions and reiterate our BUY call on this counter with an unchanged DCF-derived IDR17,400 TP. This implies P/Es on our FY17F-18F EPS of 10.8x and 9.2x respectively.
     
    Currently, Bukit Asam is trading at FY17F-18F P/Es of 6.8x and 5.8x, respectively, making it the cheapest coal stock in our universe. Key risks are the Government’s decision to change the domestic coal price formula, a delay in expanding railway capacity, a significant drop in coal prices, weaker-than-expected coal demand, and a strengthening IDR. (Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CPA, CMT)
      

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 12:08:28

Halal – An Earnings Boost Strategy

Over the next two decades, the global Muslim population is expected to rise to almost twice of that of the non-Muslim population. Such growth would trigger the vast development of the halal market. We found that companies, which implement halal practices as part of their strategy, are delivering robust earnings growth with high respective ROAEs, asset turnover, and EBIT margins. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, Mengniu, Indofood CBP, and Malee.

  • Robust Muslim population growth boost halal market. According to Pew Research Centre’s Forum on Religion & Public Life (Pew Study), the global Muslim population is expected to rise to about twice of that of the non Muslim population over the next two decades. We see this demographic growth triggering the vast development of halal products. Based on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the average projected growth of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation’s (OIC) GDP between 2015-2021 is expected at 4.2% pa, faster than the rest of the world’s GDP growth’s 3.6% pa.
     
  • Huge market with tremendous potential. According to the State Of The Global Islamic Economy Report 2016/17 developed and produced by Thomson Reuters, global Muslims spent over USD1.9trn across industries in 2015. This figure is estimated to grow to USD3trn in 2021 (7.9% CAGR). The largest halal products consumption is halal food, which accounted for 62% of the halal market in 2015. Globally, the Muslim population spent a total of USD1.2trn on food & beverage (F&B), while halal-certified F&B products sales were estimated at merely USD415bn as at 2015. This means that there is an ample room for halal certified F&B products to grow, at least to be equal with global Muslim spending figures. Furthermore, Thomson Reuters estimates Muslim spending on F&B to reach USD1.9trn by 2021, a CAGR of 9% from 2015.
     
  • Delivered robust earnings. Our Halal Thematic report consists of companies in the RHB regional universe – included in the respective countries’ securities’ shariah compliant list or Dow Jones Islamic Index – that implement halal practices on some of their products or services. Having the halal certificate is part of these companies’ respective strategies to boost revenue and expand market base. In our universe, we found 13 companies implementing the halal standards, sectors which include banking & finance, F&B, personal care products, hospital, and logistics. In FY18F, these companies are estimated to deliver robust earnings with c.17.4% ROAE and c.25% YoY earnings growth, in average. In terms of productivity, asset turnover is estimated to average at 1.12x with a 13% EBIT margin.
     
  • Top Picks. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, China Mengniu Dairy (Mengniu), Indofood CBP (Indofood), and Malee. Among the companies in our Halal Thematic coverage, Malee offers the highest ROAE and asset turnover, while Matahari Department Stores (Matahari) provides the highest EBIT margin. (Andrey Wijaya)

$ICBP $INDF

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 12:08:28

Halal – An Earnings Boost Strategy

Over the next two decades, the global Muslim population is expected to rise to almost twice of that of the non-Muslim population. Such growth would trigger the vast development of the halal market. We found that companies, which implement halal practices as part of their strategy, are delivering robust earnings growth with high respective ROAEs, asset turnover, and EBIT margins. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, Mengniu, Indofood CBP, and Malee.

  • Robust Muslim population growth boost halal market. According to Pew Research Centre’s Forum on Religion & Public Life (Pew Study), the global Muslim population is expected to rise to about twice of that of the non Muslim population over the next two decades. We see this demographic growth triggering the vast development of halal products. Based on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the average projected growth of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation’s (OIC) GDP between 2015-2021 is expected at 4.2% pa, faster than the rest of the world’s GDP growth’s 3.6% pa.
     
  • Huge market with tremendous potential. According to the State Of The Global Islamic Economy Report 2016/17 developed and produced by Thomson Reuters, global Muslims spent over USD1.9trn across industries in 2015. This figure is estimated to grow to USD3trn in 2021 (7.9% CAGR). The largest halal products consumption is halal food, which accounted for 62% of the halal market in 2015. Globally, the Muslim population spent a total of USD1.2trn on food & beverage (F&B), while halal-certified F&B products sales were estimated at merely USD415bn as at 2015. This means that there is an ample room for halal certified F&B products to grow, at least to be equal with global Muslim spending figures. Furthermore, Thomson Reuters estimates Muslim spending on F&B to reach USD1.9trn by 2021, a CAGR of 9% from 2015.
     
  • Delivered robust earnings. Our Halal Thematic report consists of companies in the RHB regional universe – included in the respective countries’ securities’ shariah compliant list or Dow Jones Islamic Index – that implement halal practices on some of their products or services. Having the halal certificate is part of these companies’ respective strategies to boost revenue and expand market base. In our universe, we found 13 companies implementing the halal standards, sectors which include banking & finance, F&B, personal care products, hospital, and logistics. In FY18F, these companies are estimated to deliver robust earnings with c.17.4% ROAE and c.25% YoY earnings growth, in average. In terms of productivity, asset turnover is estimated to average at 1.12x with a 13% EBIT margin.
     
  • Top Picks. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, China Mengniu Dairy (Mengniu), Indofood CBP (Indofood), and Malee. Among the companies in our Halal Thematic coverage, Malee offers the highest ROAE and asset turnover, while Matahari Department Stores (Matahari) provides the highest EBIT margin. (Andrey Wijaya)

$ICBP $INDF

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 12:08:28

Halal – An Earnings Boost Strategy

Over the next two decades, the global Muslim population is expected to rise to almost twice of that of the non-Muslim population. Such growth would trigger the vast development of the halal market. We found that companies, which implement halal practices as part of their strategy, are delivering robust earnings growth with high respective ROAEs, asset turnover, and EBIT margins. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, Mengniu, Indofood CBP, and Malee.

  • Robust Muslim population growth boost halal market. According to Pew Research Centre’s Forum on Religion & Public Life (Pew Study), the global Muslim population is expected to rise to about twice of that of the non Muslim population over the next two decades. We see this demographic growth triggering the vast development of halal products. Based on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the average projected growth of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation’s (OIC) GDP between 2015-2021 is expected at 4.2% pa, faster than the rest of the world’s GDP growth’s 3.6% pa.
     
  • Huge market with tremendous potential. According to the State Of The Global Islamic Economy Report 2016/17 developed and produced by Thomson Reuters, global Muslims spent over USD1.9trn across industries in 2015. This figure is estimated to grow to USD3trn in 2021 (7.9% CAGR). The largest halal products consumption is halal food, which accounted for 62% of the halal market in 2015. Globally, the Muslim population spent a total of USD1.2trn on food & beverage (F&B), while halal-certified F&B products sales were estimated at merely USD415bn as at 2015. This means that there is an ample room for halal certified F&B products to grow, at least to be equal with global Muslim spending figures. Furthermore, Thomson Reuters estimates Muslim spending on F&B to reach USD1.9trn by 2021, a CAGR of 9% from 2015.
     
  • Delivered robust earnings. Our Halal Thematic report consists of companies in the RHB regional universe – included in the respective countries’ securities’ shariah compliant list or Dow Jones Islamic Index – that implement halal practices on some of their products or services. Having the halal certificate is part of these companies’ respective strategies to boost revenue and expand market base. In our universe, we found 13 companies implementing the halal standards, sectors which include banking & finance, F&B, personal care products, hospital, and logistics. In FY18F, these companies are estimated to deliver robust earnings with c.17.4% ROAE and c.25% YoY earnings growth, in average. In terms of productivity, asset turnover is estimated to average at 1.12x with a 13% EBIT margin.
     
  • Top Picks. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, China Mengniu Dairy (Mengniu), Indofood CBP (Indofood), and Malee. Among the companies in our Halal Thematic coverage, Malee offers the highest ROAE and asset turnover, while Matahari Department Stores (Matahari) provides the highest EBIT margin. (Andrey Wijaya)

$ICBP $INDF

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 12:02:27

Kinerja $AISA 1H 2017 Sesuai Estimasi

2Q 2017 Menopang Kinerja 1H 2017
Penjualan PT. Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk. ($AISA) per 1H 2017 turun 7,5% YoY menjadi Rp 3,30 miliar. Penjualan bisnis Rice (Beras) turun 12,2% YoY menjadi Rp 2,1 triliun. Padahal bisnis Rice memberi kontribusi terbesar terhadap total penjualan perseroan, yaitu sekitar 62,4% per 1H17. Sedang penjualan dari bisnis Food Manufacturing hanya tumbuh 5,8% YoY di 1H17 menjadi Rp 1,27 triliun. Perseroan sudah mendivestasi divisi Agribisnis, sehingga tidak mendapat benefit dari kenaikan harga CPO di tahun 2017. Penjualan perseroan per 1H17 itu sesuai dengan estimasi penjualan (gross) perseroan sebesar Rp 3,37 triliun.
Penjualan di 2Q17 turun 3,4% YoY, tetapi lebih tinggi 26,1% QoQ.
Laba yang dapat diatribusikan ke pemilik entitas induk AISA per 1H 2017 turun 25,4% YoY menjadi Rp 191,07 juta. Penurunan laba AISA itu terutama disebabkan oleh turunnya penjualan. Operating income turun 13,8% YoY menjadi Rp 529,93 miliar. Operating Profit Margin dan Net Profit Margin turun masing-masing menjadi 16,1% dan 5,8% di semester I 2017. Gross Profit Margin masih lebih tinggi dibanding 1H16 yaitu 25,2%.

Harga Eceran Tertinggi Beras
Pasca kasus PT. Indo Beras Unggul, anak usaha perseroan, pemerintah akhirnya menetapkan Harga Eceran tertinggi (HET) untuk beras yang berlaku mulai 1 September 2017. Dalam aturan tersebut, HET beras diklasifikasikan berdasarkan jenis beras dan wilayah. Dengan adanya aturan baru itu, maka Peraturan Menteri Perdagangan (Permendag) No. 27 tahun 2017 tentang Penetapan Harga Acuan Pembelian di Petani dan Harga Acuan Penjualan di Konsumen dicabut.

Strategi di Bisnis Beras

Pasca penetapan HET beras, PT. Indo Beras Unggul (IBU) menyatakan akan melakukan penyesuaian kualitas produk berasnya dengan standar beras yang dipersyaratkan. Selain itu Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food berencana melakukan divestasi atas anak usahanya di bisnis beras. Kami memperkirakan divestasi baru dilaksanakan pada tahun 2018, jika disetujui dalam RUPSLB.
Kami menunggu informasi lebih lanjut dari perseroan tentang kelangsungan usaha bisnis perusahaan, terutama bisnis beras, dan strategi perusahaan ke depan. Termasuk rencana divestasi anak usaha di bisnis beras.

PE Rendah, Cerminan Fundamental ?
Saat ini AISA diperdagangkan pada PE 6,66x atau di bawah rata-rata PE 3 tahun di 13,64x. Pada rata-rata PE 3 tahun dan EPS’17est. perseroan Rp 148,63, mentranslasikan harga saham AISA Rp 2030. Berdasarkan konsensus Bloomberg, PE’17F AISA sebesar 7,73x atau paling rendah dibandingkan PE’17F konsensus emiten konsumer lain serta di bawah rata-rata PE’17F sektor konsumer konsensus Bloomberg di 28,32x. Valuasi yang relatif rendah itu lebih mencerminkan ketidakpastian perusahaan saat ini akibat kasus IBU dan penurunan kinerja.
Sejak Mei 2017 harga saham AISA tidak searah dengan IHSG, yang diperkirakan mencerminkan kondisi internal perseroan, dimana kinerja 1Q 2017 turun.

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 12:02:27

Kinerja $AISA 1H 2017 Sesuai Estimasi

2Q 2017 Menopang Kinerja 1H 2017
Penjualan PT. Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk. ($AISA) per 1H 2017 turun 7,5% YoY menjadi Rp 3,30 miliar. Penjualan bisnis Rice (Beras) turun 12,2% YoY menjadi Rp 2,1 triliun. Padahal bisnis Rice memberi kontribusi terbesar terhadap total penjualan perseroan, yaitu sekitar 62,4% per 1H17. Sedang penjualan dari bisnis Food Manufacturing hanya tumbuh 5,8% YoY di 1H17 menjadi Rp 1,27 triliun. Perseroan sudah mendivestasi divisi Agribisnis, sehingga tidak mendapat benefit dari kenaikan harga CPO di tahun 2017. Penjualan perseroan per 1H17 itu sesuai dengan estimasi penjualan (gross) perseroan sebesar Rp 3,37 triliun.
Penjualan di 2Q17 turun 3,4% YoY, tetapi lebih tinggi 26,1% QoQ.
Laba yang dapat diatribusikan ke pemilik entitas induk AISA per 1H 2017 turun 25,4% YoY menjadi Rp 191,07 juta. Penurunan laba AISA itu terutama disebabkan oleh turunnya penjualan. Operating income turun 13,8% YoY menjadi Rp 529,93 miliar. Operating Profit Margin dan Net Profit Margin turun masing-masing menjadi 16,1% dan 5,8% di semester I 2017. Gross Profit Margin masih lebih tinggi dibanding 1H16 yaitu 25,2%.

Harga Eceran Tertinggi Beras
Pasca kasus PT. Indo Beras Unggul, anak usaha perseroan, pemerintah akhirnya menetapkan Harga Eceran tertinggi (HET) untuk beras yang berlaku mulai 1 September 2017. Dalam aturan tersebut, HET beras diklasifikasikan berdasarkan jenis beras dan wilayah. Dengan adanya aturan baru itu, maka Peraturan Menteri Perdagangan (Permendag) No. 27 tahun 2017 tentang Penetapan Harga Acuan Pembelian di Petani dan Harga Acuan Penjualan di Konsumen dicabut.

Strategi di Bisnis Beras

Pasca penetapan HET beras, PT. Indo Beras Unggul (IBU) menyatakan akan melakukan penyesuaian kualitas produk berasnya dengan standar beras yang dipersyaratkan. Selain itu Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food berencana melakukan divestasi atas anak usahanya di bisnis beras. Kami memperkirakan divestasi baru dilaksanakan pada tahun 2018, jika disetujui dalam RUPSLB.
Kami menunggu informasi lebih lanjut dari perseroan tentang kelangsungan usaha bisnis perusahaan, terutama bisnis beras, dan strategi perusahaan ke depan. Termasuk rencana divestasi anak usaha di bisnis beras.

PE Rendah, Cerminan Fundamental ?
Saat ini AISA diperdagangkan pada PE 6,66x atau di bawah rata-rata PE 3 tahun di 13,64x. Pada rata-rata PE 3 tahun dan EPS’17est. perseroan Rp 148,63, mentranslasikan harga saham AISA Rp 2030. Berdasarkan konsensus Bloomberg, PE’17F AISA sebesar 7,73x atau paling rendah dibandingkan PE’17F konsensus emiten konsumer lain serta di bawah rata-rata PE’17F sektor konsumer konsensus Bloomberg di 28,32x. Valuasi yang relatif rendah itu lebih mencerminkan ketidakpastian perusahaan saat ini akibat kasus IBU dan penurunan kinerja.
Sejak Mei 2017 harga saham AISA tidak searah dengan IHSG, yang diperkirakan mencerminkan kondisi internal perseroan, dimana kinerja 1Q 2017 turun.

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 11:59:42

  • Pendapatan bersih LPKR 1H17 mengalami penurunan 3% YoY
  • Peningkatan divisi healthcare menopang tumbuhnya recurring income
  • Masih lemahnya performa 1H17 menyebabkan kami mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD


LPKR bukukan laba bersih Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Pendapatan bersih LPKR meningkat 3% YoY menjadi Rp4,9 triliun pada 1H17. Sementara GPM perseroan turun dari 43,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 41,1% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh meningkatnya penjualan dari divisi large scale integrated development yang memiliki margin lebih rendah dibandingkan urban developement serta adanya kenaikan beban pokok jasa tenaga ahli, gaji, dan kesejahteraan karyawan dari divisi healthcare sebesar 6,4% YoY. Sementara itu, OPM LPKR mengalami penurunan dari 17,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 12,4% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan biaya iklan dan pemasaran sebesar 59,4% YoY. Adapun pada 1H17, perseroan membukukan laba penjualan aset yang tersedia untuk dijual sebesar Rp119 miliar dan mengalami penurunan beban bunga sebesar 57,2% YoY menjadi Rp68 miliar. Untuk itu, laba bersih LPKR hanya mengalami penurunan sebesar 2,1% YoY menjadi Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Recurring income 1H17 meningkat 8% YoY

Recurring income tumbuh 8,0% YoY menjadi Rp3,6 triliun sehingga kontribusi terhadap total pendapatan meningkat dari 65,3% pada 1H16 menjadi 73% pada 1H17. Pertumbuhan itu didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan divisi healthcare sebesar 7,9% YoY menjadi Rp2,8 triliun pada 1H17, yang berasal dari 31 rumah sakit yang dikelola LPKR. Pertumbuhan recurring income tersebut juga didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan ritel mal sebesar 16,8% YoY menjadi Rp191 miliar pada 1H17, yang ditopang oleh meningkatnya kontribusi dari Lippo Mall Puri, Baubau, dan Jambi. Hingga 1H17, LPKR mengelola 47 mal yang tersebar di seluruh Indonesia. Sementara itu, pendapatan aset managemen meningkat 9,4% YoY menjadi Rp205 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh bertambahnya aset yang dikelola serta meningkatnya fee dan pendapatan dividen. Di sisi lain, development revenue mengalami penurunan sebesar 24,7% YoY menjadi Rp1,3 triliun pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh turunnya pendapatan segmen urban development sebesar 41,0% YoY menjadi Rp687 miliar. Sedangkan pendapatan segmen large scale integrated development meningkat 6,2% YoY menjadi Rp648 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh peningkatan pengakuan pendapatan dari Orange County, Millenium Village, dan perkantoran Lippo Thamrin.

LPKR raih marketing sales Rp2,6 triliun

LPKR membukukan marketing sales sebesar Rp2,6 triliun pada 1H17, meningkat signifikan hingga di atas 4x lipat dari 1H16. Kenaikan ini ditopang oleh pertumbuhan yang signifikan dari segmen residensial hingga 36x menjadi Rp2,4 triliun pada 1H17. Kendati demikian, jika dibandingkan dengan target hingga akhir tahun sebesar Rp10 triliun, pencapaian marketing sales ini masih rendah, yakni sebesar 27%. Di sisi lain, perseroan telah mendapatkan persetujuan dari pemegang saham terkait akuisisi properti integrasi di Buton. Perseroan akan mengakuisisi Siloam Hospitals Buton yang menyatu dengan retail mall plaza Buton.

Kami memberikan rekomendasi HOLD dengan target harga 800/saham

Kendati mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan, pencapaian marketing sales LPKR hingga 1H17 masih jauh dari target 2017. Di samping itu, performa segmen urban development juga masih membukukan pelemahan sehingga menghambat pemulihan kinerja LPKR. Untuk itu, kami menurunkan target harga dari Rp865/saham menjadi Rp800/saham. Positifnya, perseroan masih diuntungkan oleh model bisnisnya yang mayoritas dikontribusikan oleh recurring income, yang terutama berasal dari segmen healthcare. Kami juga berharap adanya aksi penjualan aset ke REIT yang dapat memberikan dana segar bagi perseroan. Untuk itu, kami tetap mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD atas saham LPKR.

$LPKR $LPCK $SILO

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 11:59:42

  • Pendapatan bersih LPKR 1H17 mengalami penurunan 3% YoY
  • Peningkatan divisi healthcare menopang tumbuhnya recurring income
  • Masih lemahnya performa 1H17 menyebabkan kami mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD


LPKR bukukan laba bersih Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Pendapatan bersih LPKR meningkat 3% YoY menjadi Rp4,9 triliun pada 1H17. Sementara GPM perseroan turun dari 43,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 41,1% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh meningkatnya penjualan dari divisi large scale integrated development yang memiliki margin lebih rendah dibandingkan urban developement serta adanya kenaikan beban pokok jasa tenaga ahli, gaji, dan kesejahteraan karyawan dari divisi healthcare sebesar 6,4% YoY. Sementara itu, OPM LPKR mengalami penurunan dari 17,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 12,4% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan biaya iklan dan pemasaran sebesar 59,4% YoY. Adapun pada 1H17, perseroan membukukan laba penjualan aset yang tersedia untuk dijual sebesar Rp119 miliar dan mengalami penurunan beban bunga sebesar 57,2% YoY menjadi Rp68 miliar. Untuk itu, laba bersih LPKR hanya mengalami penurunan sebesar 2,1% YoY menjadi Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Recurring income 1H17 meningkat 8% YoY

Recurring income tumbuh 8,0% YoY menjadi Rp3,6 triliun sehingga kontribusi terhadap total pendapatan meningkat dari 65,3% pada 1H16 menjadi 73% pada 1H17. Pertumbuhan itu didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan divisi healthcare sebesar 7,9% YoY menjadi Rp2,8 triliun pada 1H17, yang berasal dari 31 rumah sakit yang dikelola LPKR. Pertumbuhan recurring income tersebut juga didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan ritel mal sebesar 16,8% YoY menjadi Rp191 miliar pada 1H17, yang ditopang oleh meningkatnya kontribusi dari Lippo Mall Puri, Baubau, dan Jambi. Hingga 1H17, LPKR mengelola 47 mal yang tersebar di seluruh Indonesia. Sementara itu, pendapatan aset managemen meningkat 9,4% YoY menjadi Rp205 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh bertambahnya aset yang dikelola serta meningkatnya fee dan pendapatan dividen. Di sisi lain, development revenue mengalami penurunan sebesar 24,7% YoY menjadi Rp1,3 triliun pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh turunnya pendapatan segmen urban development sebesar 41,0% YoY menjadi Rp687 miliar. Sedangkan pendapatan segmen large scale integrated development meningkat 6,2% YoY menjadi Rp648 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh peningkatan pengakuan pendapatan dari Orange County, Millenium Village, dan perkantoran Lippo Thamrin.

LPKR raih marketing sales Rp2,6 triliun

LPKR membukukan marketing sales sebesar Rp2,6 triliun pada 1H17, meningkat signifikan hingga di atas 4x lipat dari 1H16. Kenaikan ini ditopang oleh pertumbuhan yang signifikan dari segmen residensial hingga 36x menjadi Rp2,4 triliun pada 1H17. Kendati demikian, jika dibandingkan dengan target hingga akhir tahun sebesar Rp10 triliun, pencapaian marketing sales ini masih rendah, yakni sebesar 27%. Di sisi lain, perseroan telah mendapatkan persetujuan dari pemegang saham terkait akuisisi properti integrasi di Buton. Perseroan akan mengakuisisi Siloam Hospitals Buton yang menyatu dengan retail mall plaza Buton.

Kami memberikan rekomendasi HOLD dengan target harga 800/saham

Kendati mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan, pencapaian marketing sales LPKR hingga 1H17 masih jauh dari target 2017. Di samping itu, performa segmen urban development juga masih membukukan pelemahan sehingga menghambat pemulihan kinerja LPKR. Untuk itu, kami menurunkan target harga dari Rp865/saham menjadi Rp800/saham. Positifnya, perseroan masih diuntungkan oleh model bisnisnya yang mayoritas dikontribusikan oleh recurring income, yang terutama berasal dari segmen healthcare. Kami juga berharap adanya aksi penjualan aset ke REIT yang dapat memberikan dana segar bagi perseroan. Untuk itu, kami tetap mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD atas saham LPKR.

$LPKR $LPCK $SILO

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 11:59:42

  • Pendapatan bersih LPKR 1H17 mengalami penurunan 3% YoY
  • Peningkatan divisi healthcare menopang tumbuhnya recurring income
  • Masih lemahnya performa 1H17 menyebabkan kami mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD


LPKR bukukan laba bersih Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Pendapatan bersih LPKR meningkat 3% YoY menjadi Rp4,9 triliun pada 1H17. Sementara GPM perseroan turun dari 43,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 41,1% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh meningkatnya penjualan dari divisi large scale integrated development yang memiliki margin lebih rendah dibandingkan urban developement serta adanya kenaikan beban pokok jasa tenaga ahli, gaji, dan kesejahteraan karyawan dari divisi healthcare sebesar 6,4% YoY. Sementara itu, OPM LPKR mengalami penurunan dari 17,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 12,4% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan biaya iklan dan pemasaran sebesar 59,4% YoY. Adapun pada 1H17, perseroan membukukan laba penjualan aset yang tersedia untuk dijual sebesar Rp119 miliar dan mengalami penurunan beban bunga sebesar 57,2% YoY menjadi Rp68 miliar. Untuk itu, laba bersih LPKR hanya mengalami penurunan sebesar 2,1% YoY menjadi Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Recurring income 1H17 meningkat 8% YoY

Recurring income tumbuh 8,0% YoY menjadi Rp3,6 triliun sehingga kontribusi terhadap total pendapatan meningkat dari 65,3% pada 1H16 menjadi 73% pada 1H17. Pertumbuhan itu didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan divisi healthcare sebesar 7,9% YoY menjadi Rp2,8 triliun pada 1H17, yang berasal dari 31 rumah sakit yang dikelola LPKR. Pertumbuhan recurring income tersebut juga didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan ritel mal sebesar 16,8% YoY menjadi Rp191 miliar pada 1H17, yang ditopang oleh meningkatnya kontribusi dari Lippo Mall Puri, Baubau, dan Jambi. Hingga 1H17, LPKR mengelola 47 mal yang tersebar di seluruh Indonesia. Sementara itu, pendapatan aset managemen meningkat 9,4% YoY menjadi Rp205 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh bertambahnya aset yang dikelola serta meningkatnya fee dan pendapatan dividen. Di sisi lain, development revenue mengalami penurunan sebesar 24,7% YoY menjadi Rp1,3 triliun pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh turunnya pendapatan segmen urban development sebesar 41,0% YoY menjadi Rp687 miliar. Sedangkan pendapatan segmen large scale integrated development meningkat 6,2% YoY menjadi Rp648 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh peningkatan pengakuan pendapatan dari Orange County, Millenium Village, dan perkantoran Lippo Thamrin.

LPKR raih marketing sales Rp2,6 triliun

LPKR membukukan marketing sales sebesar Rp2,6 triliun pada 1H17, meningkat signifikan hingga di atas 4x lipat dari 1H16. Kenaikan ini ditopang oleh pertumbuhan yang signifikan dari segmen residensial hingga 36x menjadi Rp2,4 triliun pada 1H17. Kendati demikian, jika dibandingkan dengan target hingga akhir tahun sebesar Rp10 triliun, pencapaian marketing sales ini masih rendah, yakni sebesar 27%. Di sisi lain, perseroan telah mendapatkan persetujuan dari pemegang saham terkait akuisisi properti integrasi di Buton. Perseroan akan mengakuisisi Siloam Hospitals Buton yang menyatu dengan retail mall plaza Buton.

Kami memberikan rekomendasi HOLD dengan target harga 800/saham

Kendati mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan, pencapaian marketing sales LPKR hingga 1H17 masih jauh dari target 2017. Di samping itu, performa segmen urban development juga masih membukukan pelemahan sehingga menghambat pemulihan kinerja LPKR. Untuk itu, kami menurunkan target harga dari Rp865/saham menjadi Rp800/saham. Positifnya, perseroan masih diuntungkan oleh model bisnisnya yang mayoritas dikontribusikan oleh recurring income, yang terutama berasal dari segmen healthcare. Kami juga berharap adanya aksi penjualan aset ke REIT yang dapat memberikan dana segar bagi perseroan. Untuk itu, kami tetap mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD atas saham LPKR.

$LPKR $LPCK $SILO

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 11:59:42

  • Pendapatan bersih LPKR 1H17 mengalami penurunan 3% YoY
  • Peningkatan divisi healthcare menopang tumbuhnya recurring income
  • Masih lemahnya performa 1H17 menyebabkan kami mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD


LPKR bukukan laba bersih Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Pendapatan bersih LPKR meningkat 3% YoY menjadi Rp4,9 triliun pada 1H17. Sementara GPM perseroan turun dari 43,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 41,1% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh meningkatnya penjualan dari divisi large scale integrated development yang memiliki margin lebih rendah dibandingkan urban developement serta adanya kenaikan beban pokok jasa tenaga ahli, gaji, dan kesejahteraan karyawan dari divisi healthcare sebesar 6,4% YoY. Sementara itu, OPM LPKR mengalami penurunan dari 17,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 12,4% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan biaya iklan dan pemasaran sebesar 59,4% YoY. Adapun pada 1H17, perseroan membukukan laba penjualan aset yang tersedia untuk dijual sebesar Rp119 miliar dan mengalami penurunan beban bunga sebesar 57,2% YoY menjadi Rp68 miliar. Untuk itu, laba bersih LPKR hanya mengalami penurunan sebesar 2,1% YoY menjadi Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Recurring income 1H17 meningkat 8% YoY

Recurring income tumbuh 8,0% YoY menjadi Rp3,6 triliun sehingga kontribusi terhadap total pendapatan meningkat dari 65,3% pada 1H16 menjadi 73% pada 1H17. Pertumbuhan itu didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan divisi healthcare sebesar 7,9% YoY menjadi Rp2,8 triliun pada 1H17, yang berasal dari 31 rumah sakit yang dikelola LPKR. Pertumbuhan recurring income tersebut juga didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan ritel mal sebesar 16,8% YoY menjadi Rp191 miliar pada 1H17, yang ditopang oleh meningkatnya kontribusi dari Lippo Mall Puri, Baubau, dan Jambi. Hingga 1H17, LPKR mengelola 47 mal yang tersebar di seluruh Indonesia. Sementara itu, pendapatan aset managemen meningkat 9,4% YoY menjadi Rp205 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh bertambahnya aset yang dikelola serta meningkatnya fee dan pendapatan dividen. Di sisi lain, development revenue mengalami penurunan sebesar 24,7% YoY menjadi Rp1,3 triliun pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh turunnya pendapatan segmen urban development sebesar 41,0% YoY menjadi Rp687 miliar. Sedangkan pendapatan segmen large scale integrated development meningkat 6,2% YoY menjadi Rp648 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh peningkatan pengakuan pendapatan dari Orange County, Millenium Village, dan perkantoran Lippo Thamrin.

LPKR raih marketing sales Rp2,6 triliun

LPKR membukukan marketing sales sebesar Rp2,6 triliun pada 1H17, meningkat signifikan hingga di atas 4x lipat dari 1H16. Kenaikan ini ditopang oleh pertumbuhan yang signifikan dari segmen residensial hingga 36x menjadi Rp2,4 triliun pada 1H17. Kendati demikian, jika dibandingkan dengan target hingga akhir tahun sebesar Rp10 triliun, pencapaian marketing sales ini masih rendah, yakni sebesar 27%. Di sisi lain, perseroan telah mendapatkan persetujuan dari pemegang saham terkait akuisisi properti integrasi di Buton. Perseroan akan mengakuisisi Siloam Hospitals Buton yang menyatu dengan retail mall plaza Buton.

Kami memberikan rekomendasi HOLD dengan target harga 800/saham

Kendati mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan, pencapaian marketing sales LPKR hingga 1H17 masih jauh dari target 2017. Di samping itu, performa segmen urban development juga masih membukukan pelemahan sehingga menghambat pemulihan kinerja LPKR. Untuk itu, kami menurunkan target harga dari Rp865/saham menjadi Rp800/saham. Positifnya, perseroan masih diuntungkan oleh model bisnisnya yang mayoritas dikontribusikan oleh recurring income, yang terutama berasal dari segmen healthcare. Kami juga berharap adanya aksi penjualan aset ke REIT yang dapat memberikan dana segar bagi perseroan. Untuk itu, kami tetap mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD atas saham LPKR.

$LPKR $LPCK $SILO

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 11:54:55

RHB Investor Gathering – Economic and Political Outlook Towards 2019 Election

Yesterday, we held an Investor Gathering with keynote speaker Mr. Faisal  Basri, discussing Indonesia’s economic and political outlook towards 2019 election.

Mr. Basri sees a solid macroeconomic situation for Indonesia. There is risk  in the fiscal deficit due to limited government revenue, but it is still manageable by lowering capital spending. Slower growth in households consumption is likely to be driven by shifting to saving from spending by consumers. Political condition is conducive with a high electability for President Joko Widodo. Overall, Indonesia’s democracy situation is more stable than its neighbouring countries.

Below are keys takeaways:

  • Solid macroeconomics. Indonesia’s macroeconomic condition is solid which is indicated by low inflation (3.7% in Sep), lower Central Bank 7-day repo rate (4.25% in Sep), stable IDR/USD exchange rate (IDR13,500/USD), and high foreign reserves (USD129.4bn in Sep). 
     
  • There is risk in fiscal deficit, but it is manageable. From the fiscal side, limited government revenue affects the economy. Ambitious 2017 tax revenue target (+16% vs 2016 realisation) is unlikely to be achieved, thus will likely cause fiscal deficit to be higher than its target (above 2.9%). Mr. Basri suggested slower capital spending, such as rescheduling infrastructure projects and reducing state capital injection. Otherwise, macroeconomic stability may be disturbed. 
     
  • Slower consumption growth, but not purchasing power. In middle-to-high income households, there is indication of shifting to saving from consumption. Households saving-to-income ratio increased to 20.8% in 2Q17 (from 18.6% in 2Q16).

    For low-income consumers – e.g. farmers, construction workers, and other informal workers – their purchasing power generally have declined for quite some time. Moreover, the delay of social assistance disbursement to this group worsened the situation. Nevertheless, this group has a small contribution of 17% of the national private consumption. 
     
  • President Joko Widodo’s electability is high. Despite slower growth in  consumer spending – especially in low-end segment – President Joko Widodo’s electability is high, increasing to 41.6% in Apr-17 (from 36.3% in  Apr-16), according to a Kompas survey. In addition, satisfaction rate on Joko Widodo administration is high, stable at around 65%. Overall, Indonesia’s  democracy situation is more stable than its neighbouring countries. (Andrey Wijaya, Rizki Fajar)
     

hide
Handle
N/A
Handle