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P H
@ph
P H
Feb 01,2018 19:06:51
Astra International 

($ASII) akan memacu bisnis properti melalui kolaborasi dengan investor Hong Kong (HK) Land untuk proyek-proyek residensial serta komersial strata. Kerja sama patungan ASII dengan HK Land dilakukan dengan komposisi saham masing-masing sebesar 60% berbanding 40%.

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P H
Feb 01,2018 19:06:51
Astra International 

($ASII) akan memacu bisnis properti melalui kolaborasi dengan investor Hong Kong (HK) Land untuk proyek-proyek residensial serta komersial strata. Kerja sama patungan ASII dengan HK Land dilakukan dengan komposisi saham masing-masing sebesar 60% berbanding 40%.

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P H
Oct 23,2017 07:31:39

Bukit Asam ($PTBA)’s strong 3Q17 net profit is above consensus expectations. We think the strong earnings should continue, as high coal prices are likely to be sustained. Based on our discussion with its CFO, the firm is confident that PLN’s request to use a cost-plus margin formula for determining the coal selling price to domestic power plants is unlikely to be implemented. We maintain our assumptions and reiterate BUY with an unchanged IDR17,400 TP (58% upside). Bukit Asam’s FY17F-18F P/Es of 6.8x and 5.8x respectively are the cheapest among our coal universe.



  • Management is confident that the cost-plus margin formula is unlikely to be implemented. Based on our discussion with Bukit Asam’s chief financial officer Mr Orias Petrus Moedak, he is confident that Perusahaan Listrik Negara’s (PLN) request to use a cost-plus margin in determining the coal selling price to domestic coal power plants is unlikely to happen. 
      

  • Using conservative accounting to record coal selling prices to PLN. Bukit Asam booked revenue from selling coal to PLN in 9M17 using the ASP the latter requested for in negotiations. These negotiations are still ongoing.
     
    If the final agreed selling price with PLN in the yet-to-be-signed agreement uses 4Q16 ASP (as per the former agreement), there should be a positive surprise. This is because Bukit Asam would record a higher selling price and make a retroactive adjustment to its revenue from PLN since the start of 2017. 
      
  • Banko Tengah (Sumsel 8) power plant should commence its commercial operation date (COD) in 2021. On 19 Oct, Bukit Asam subsidiary PT Huadian Bukit Asam Power and PLN signed an amendment to their power purchase agreement (PPA) for the 2x620MW Banko Tengah (Sumsel 8) mine mouth coal-fired power plant. The COD of this plant is scheduled for 2021. 
     
    The Sumsel 8 power plant is slated to consume 5.1m tonnes of coal pa, 100% of which would come from Bukit Asam’s coal mine. This should increase its coal sales by 5.1m tonnes (FY17F: 23.1m tonnes) from 2021 onwards.
      
  • 3Q17 earnings are above consensus expectations (9M17: ~77% and ~82% of our and street’s estimates). Bukit Asam booked strong 3Q17 earnings of IDR902bn (+165% YoY, +5.7% QoQ) on the back of higher revenue and gross margins (3Q17: 40%, 2Q17: 37%, 3Q16: 24%). This was partly contributed by a lower stripping ratio in 3Q17.
     
  • Reiterate BUY with an unchanged IDR17,400 TP. We maintain our assumptions and reiterate our BUY call on this counter with an unchanged DCF-derived IDR17,400 TP. This implies P/Es on our FY17F-18F EPS of 10.8x and 9.2x respectively.
     
    Currently, Bukit Asam is trading at FY17F-18F P/Es of 6.8x and 5.8x, respectively, making it the cheapest coal stock in our universe. Key risks are the Government’s decision to change the domestic coal price formula, a delay in expanding railway capacity, a significant drop in coal prices, weaker-than-expected coal demand, and a strengthening IDR. (Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CPA, CMT)
      

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P H
Oct 23,2017 07:31:39

Bukit Asam ($PTBA)’s strong 3Q17 net profit is above consensus expectations. We think the strong earnings should continue, as high coal prices are likely to be sustained. Based on our discussion with its CFO, the firm is confident that PLN’s request to use a cost-plus margin formula for determining the coal selling price to domestic power plants is unlikely to be implemented. We maintain our assumptions and reiterate BUY with an unchanged IDR17,400 TP (58% upside). Bukit Asam’s FY17F-18F P/Es of 6.8x and 5.8x respectively are the cheapest among our coal universe.



  • Management is confident that the cost-plus margin formula is unlikely to be implemented. Based on our discussion with Bukit Asam’s chief financial officer Mr Orias Petrus Moedak, he is confident that Perusahaan Listrik Negara’s (PLN) request to use a cost-plus margin in determining the coal selling price to domestic coal power plants is unlikely to happen. 
      

  • Using conservative accounting to record coal selling prices to PLN. Bukit Asam booked revenue from selling coal to PLN in 9M17 using the ASP the latter requested for in negotiations. These negotiations are still ongoing.
     
    If the final agreed selling price with PLN in the yet-to-be-signed agreement uses 4Q16 ASP (as per the former agreement), there should be a positive surprise. This is because Bukit Asam would record a higher selling price and make a retroactive adjustment to its revenue from PLN since the start of 2017. 
      
  • Banko Tengah (Sumsel 8) power plant should commence its commercial operation date (COD) in 2021. On 19 Oct, Bukit Asam subsidiary PT Huadian Bukit Asam Power and PLN signed an amendment to their power purchase agreement (PPA) for the 2x620MW Banko Tengah (Sumsel 8) mine mouth coal-fired power plant. The COD of this plant is scheduled for 2021. 
     
    The Sumsel 8 power plant is slated to consume 5.1m tonnes of coal pa, 100% of which would come from Bukit Asam’s coal mine. This should increase its coal sales by 5.1m tonnes (FY17F: 23.1m tonnes) from 2021 onwards.
      
  • 3Q17 earnings are above consensus expectations (9M17: ~77% and ~82% of our and street’s estimates). Bukit Asam booked strong 3Q17 earnings of IDR902bn (+165% YoY, +5.7% QoQ) on the back of higher revenue and gross margins (3Q17: 40%, 2Q17: 37%, 3Q16: 24%). This was partly contributed by a lower stripping ratio in 3Q17.
     
  • Reiterate BUY with an unchanged IDR17,400 TP. We maintain our assumptions and reiterate our BUY call on this counter with an unchanged DCF-derived IDR17,400 TP. This implies P/Es on our FY17F-18F EPS of 10.8x and 9.2x respectively.
     
    Currently, Bukit Asam is trading at FY17F-18F P/Es of 6.8x and 5.8x, respectively, making it the cheapest coal stock in our universe. Key risks are the Government’s decision to change the domestic coal price formula, a delay in expanding railway capacity, a significant drop in coal prices, weaker-than-expected coal demand, and a strengthening IDR. (Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CPA, CMT)
      

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P H
Oct 13,2017 12:08:28

Halal – An Earnings Boost Strategy

Over the next two decades, the global Muslim population is expected to rise to almost twice of that of the non-Muslim population. Such growth would trigger the vast development of the halal market. We found that companies, which implement halal practices as part of their strategy, are delivering robust earnings growth with high respective ROAEs, asset turnover, and EBIT margins. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, Mengniu, Indofood CBP, and Malee.

  • Robust Muslim population growth boost halal market. According to Pew Research Centre’s Forum on Religion & Public Life (Pew Study), the global Muslim population is expected to rise to about twice of that of the non Muslim population over the next two decades. We see this demographic growth triggering the vast development of halal products. Based on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the average projected growth of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation’s (OIC) GDP between 2015-2021 is expected at 4.2% pa, faster than the rest of the world’s GDP growth’s 3.6% pa.
     
  • Huge market with tremendous potential. According to the State Of The Global Islamic Economy Report 2016/17 developed and produced by Thomson Reuters, global Muslims spent over USD1.9trn across industries in 2015. This figure is estimated to grow to USD3trn in 2021 (7.9% CAGR). The largest halal products consumption is halal food, which accounted for 62% of the halal market in 2015. Globally, the Muslim population spent a total of USD1.2trn on food & beverage (F&B), while halal-certified F&B products sales were estimated at merely USD415bn as at 2015. This means that there is an ample room for halal certified F&B products to grow, at least to be equal with global Muslim spending figures. Furthermore, Thomson Reuters estimates Muslim spending on F&B to reach USD1.9trn by 2021, a CAGR of 9% from 2015.
     
  • Delivered robust earnings. Our Halal Thematic report consists of companies in the RHB regional universe – included in the respective countries’ securities’ shariah compliant list or Dow Jones Islamic Index – that implement halal practices on some of their products or services. Having the halal certificate is part of these companies’ respective strategies to boost revenue and expand market base. In our universe, we found 13 companies implementing the halal standards, sectors which include banking & finance, F&B, personal care products, hospital, and logistics. In FY18F, these companies are estimated to deliver robust earnings with c.17.4% ROAE and c.25% YoY earnings growth, in average. In terms of productivity, asset turnover is estimated to average at 1.12x with a 13% EBIT margin.
     
  • Top Picks. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, China Mengniu Dairy (Mengniu), Indofood CBP (Indofood), and Malee. Among the companies in our Halal Thematic coverage, Malee offers the highest ROAE and asset turnover, while Matahari Department Stores (Matahari) provides the highest EBIT margin. (Andrey Wijaya)

$ICBP $INDF

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P H
Oct 13,2017 12:08:28

Halal – An Earnings Boost Strategy

Over the next two decades, the global Muslim population is expected to rise to almost twice of that of the non-Muslim population. Such growth would trigger the vast development of the halal market. We found that companies, which implement halal practices as part of their strategy, are delivering robust earnings growth with high respective ROAEs, asset turnover, and EBIT margins. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, Mengniu, Indofood CBP, and Malee.

  • Robust Muslim population growth boost halal market. According to Pew Research Centre’s Forum on Religion & Public Life (Pew Study), the global Muslim population is expected to rise to about twice of that of the non Muslim population over the next two decades. We see this demographic growth triggering the vast development of halal products. Based on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the average projected growth of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation’s (OIC) GDP between 2015-2021 is expected at 4.2% pa, faster than the rest of the world’s GDP growth’s 3.6% pa.
     
  • Huge market with tremendous potential. According to the State Of The Global Islamic Economy Report 2016/17 developed and produced by Thomson Reuters, global Muslims spent over USD1.9trn across industries in 2015. This figure is estimated to grow to USD3trn in 2021 (7.9% CAGR). The largest halal products consumption is halal food, which accounted for 62% of the halal market in 2015. Globally, the Muslim population spent a total of USD1.2trn on food & beverage (F&B), while halal-certified F&B products sales were estimated at merely USD415bn as at 2015. This means that there is an ample room for halal certified F&B products to grow, at least to be equal with global Muslim spending figures. Furthermore, Thomson Reuters estimates Muslim spending on F&B to reach USD1.9trn by 2021, a CAGR of 9% from 2015.
     
  • Delivered robust earnings. Our Halal Thematic report consists of companies in the RHB regional universe – included in the respective countries’ securities’ shariah compliant list or Dow Jones Islamic Index – that implement halal practices on some of their products or services. Having the halal certificate is part of these companies’ respective strategies to boost revenue and expand market base. In our universe, we found 13 companies implementing the halal standards, sectors which include banking & finance, F&B, personal care products, hospital, and logistics. In FY18F, these companies are estimated to deliver robust earnings with c.17.4% ROAE and c.25% YoY earnings growth, in average. In terms of productivity, asset turnover is estimated to average at 1.12x with a 13% EBIT margin.
     
  • Top Picks. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, China Mengniu Dairy (Mengniu), Indofood CBP (Indofood), and Malee. Among the companies in our Halal Thematic coverage, Malee offers the highest ROAE and asset turnover, while Matahari Department Stores (Matahari) provides the highest EBIT margin. (Andrey Wijaya)

$ICBP $INDF

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 12:08:28

Halal – An Earnings Boost Strategy

Over the next two decades, the global Muslim population is expected to rise to almost twice of that of the non-Muslim population. Such growth would trigger the vast development of the halal market. We found that companies, which implement halal practices as part of their strategy, are delivering robust earnings growth with high respective ROAEs, asset turnover, and EBIT margins. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, Mengniu, Indofood CBP, and Malee.

  • Robust Muslim population growth boost halal market. According to Pew Research Centre’s Forum on Religion & Public Life (Pew Study), the global Muslim population is expected to rise to about twice of that of the non Muslim population over the next two decades. We see this demographic growth triggering the vast development of halal products. Based on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the average projected growth of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation’s (OIC) GDP between 2015-2021 is expected at 4.2% pa, faster than the rest of the world’s GDP growth’s 3.6% pa.
     
  • Huge market with tremendous potential. According to the State Of The Global Islamic Economy Report 2016/17 developed and produced by Thomson Reuters, global Muslims spent over USD1.9trn across industries in 2015. This figure is estimated to grow to USD3trn in 2021 (7.9% CAGR). The largest halal products consumption is halal food, which accounted for 62% of the halal market in 2015. Globally, the Muslim population spent a total of USD1.2trn on food & beverage (F&B), while halal-certified F&B products sales were estimated at merely USD415bn as at 2015. This means that there is an ample room for halal certified F&B products to grow, at least to be equal with global Muslim spending figures. Furthermore, Thomson Reuters estimates Muslim spending on F&B to reach USD1.9trn by 2021, a CAGR of 9% from 2015.
     
  • Delivered robust earnings. Our Halal Thematic report consists of companies in the RHB regional universe – included in the respective countries’ securities’ shariah compliant list or Dow Jones Islamic Index – that implement halal practices on some of their products or services. Having the halal certificate is part of these companies’ respective strategies to boost revenue and expand market base. In our universe, we found 13 companies implementing the halal standards, sectors which include banking & finance, F&B, personal care products, hospital, and logistics. In FY18F, these companies are estimated to deliver robust earnings with c.17.4% ROAE and c.25% YoY earnings growth, in average. In terms of productivity, asset turnover is estimated to average at 1.12x with a 13% EBIT margin.
     
  • Top Picks. Our Top Picks are Bangkok Dusit Medical, BIMB, China Mengniu Dairy (Mengniu), Indofood CBP (Indofood), and Malee. Among the companies in our Halal Thematic coverage, Malee offers the highest ROAE and asset turnover, while Matahari Department Stores (Matahari) provides the highest EBIT margin. (Andrey Wijaya)

$ICBP $INDF

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P H
Oct 13,2017 12:02:27

Kinerja $AISA 1H 2017 Sesuai Estimasi

2Q 2017 Menopang Kinerja 1H 2017
Penjualan PT. Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk. ($AISA) per 1H 2017 turun 7,5% YoY menjadi Rp 3,30 miliar. Penjualan bisnis Rice (Beras) turun 12,2% YoY menjadi Rp 2,1 triliun. Padahal bisnis Rice memberi kontribusi terbesar terhadap total penjualan perseroan, yaitu sekitar 62,4% per 1H17. Sedang penjualan dari bisnis Food Manufacturing hanya tumbuh 5,8% YoY di 1H17 menjadi Rp 1,27 triliun. Perseroan sudah mendivestasi divisi Agribisnis, sehingga tidak mendapat benefit dari kenaikan harga CPO di tahun 2017. Penjualan perseroan per 1H17 itu sesuai dengan estimasi penjualan (gross) perseroan sebesar Rp 3,37 triliun.
Penjualan di 2Q17 turun 3,4% YoY, tetapi lebih tinggi 26,1% QoQ.
Laba yang dapat diatribusikan ke pemilik entitas induk AISA per 1H 2017 turun 25,4% YoY menjadi Rp 191,07 juta. Penurunan laba AISA itu terutama disebabkan oleh turunnya penjualan. Operating income turun 13,8% YoY menjadi Rp 529,93 miliar. Operating Profit Margin dan Net Profit Margin turun masing-masing menjadi 16,1% dan 5,8% di semester I 2017. Gross Profit Margin masih lebih tinggi dibanding 1H16 yaitu 25,2%.

Harga Eceran Tertinggi Beras
Pasca kasus PT. Indo Beras Unggul, anak usaha perseroan, pemerintah akhirnya menetapkan Harga Eceran tertinggi (HET) untuk beras yang berlaku mulai 1 September 2017. Dalam aturan tersebut, HET beras diklasifikasikan berdasarkan jenis beras dan wilayah. Dengan adanya aturan baru itu, maka Peraturan Menteri Perdagangan (Permendag) No. 27 tahun 2017 tentang Penetapan Harga Acuan Pembelian di Petani dan Harga Acuan Penjualan di Konsumen dicabut.

Strategi di Bisnis Beras

Pasca penetapan HET beras, PT. Indo Beras Unggul (IBU) menyatakan akan melakukan penyesuaian kualitas produk berasnya dengan standar beras yang dipersyaratkan. Selain itu Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food berencana melakukan divestasi atas anak usahanya di bisnis beras. Kami memperkirakan divestasi baru dilaksanakan pada tahun 2018, jika disetujui dalam RUPSLB.
Kami menunggu informasi lebih lanjut dari perseroan tentang kelangsungan usaha bisnis perusahaan, terutama bisnis beras, dan strategi perusahaan ke depan. Termasuk rencana divestasi anak usaha di bisnis beras.

PE Rendah, Cerminan Fundamental ?
Saat ini AISA diperdagangkan pada PE 6,66x atau di bawah rata-rata PE 3 tahun di 13,64x. Pada rata-rata PE 3 tahun dan EPS’17est. perseroan Rp 148,63, mentranslasikan harga saham AISA Rp 2030. Berdasarkan konsensus Bloomberg, PE’17F AISA sebesar 7,73x atau paling rendah dibandingkan PE’17F konsensus emiten konsumer lain serta di bawah rata-rata PE’17F sektor konsumer konsensus Bloomberg di 28,32x. Valuasi yang relatif rendah itu lebih mencerminkan ketidakpastian perusahaan saat ini akibat kasus IBU dan penurunan kinerja.
Sejak Mei 2017 harga saham AISA tidak searah dengan IHSG, yang diperkirakan mencerminkan kondisi internal perseroan, dimana kinerja 1Q 2017 turun.

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P H
Oct 13,2017 12:02:27

Kinerja $AISA 1H 2017 Sesuai Estimasi

2Q 2017 Menopang Kinerja 1H 2017
Penjualan PT. Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk. ($AISA) per 1H 2017 turun 7,5% YoY menjadi Rp 3,30 miliar. Penjualan bisnis Rice (Beras) turun 12,2% YoY menjadi Rp 2,1 triliun. Padahal bisnis Rice memberi kontribusi terbesar terhadap total penjualan perseroan, yaitu sekitar 62,4% per 1H17. Sedang penjualan dari bisnis Food Manufacturing hanya tumbuh 5,8% YoY di 1H17 menjadi Rp 1,27 triliun. Perseroan sudah mendivestasi divisi Agribisnis, sehingga tidak mendapat benefit dari kenaikan harga CPO di tahun 2017. Penjualan perseroan per 1H17 itu sesuai dengan estimasi penjualan (gross) perseroan sebesar Rp 3,37 triliun.
Penjualan di 2Q17 turun 3,4% YoY, tetapi lebih tinggi 26,1% QoQ.
Laba yang dapat diatribusikan ke pemilik entitas induk AISA per 1H 2017 turun 25,4% YoY menjadi Rp 191,07 juta. Penurunan laba AISA itu terutama disebabkan oleh turunnya penjualan. Operating income turun 13,8% YoY menjadi Rp 529,93 miliar. Operating Profit Margin dan Net Profit Margin turun masing-masing menjadi 16,1% dan 5,8% di semester I 2017. Gross Profit Margin masih lebih tinggi dibanding 1H16 yaitu 25,2%.

Harga Eceran Tertinggi Beras
Pasca kasus PT. Indo Beras Unggul, anak usaha perseroan, pemerintah akhirnya menetapkan Harga Eceran tertinggi (HET) untuk beras yang berlaku mulai 1 September 2017. Dalam aturan tersebut, HET beras diklasifikasikan berdasarkan jenis beras dan wilayah. Dengan adanya aturan baru itu, maka Peraturan Menteri Perdagangan (Permendag) No. 27 tahun 2017 tentang Penetapan Harga Acuan Pembelian di Petani dan Harga Acuan Penjualan di Konsumen dicabut.

Strategi di Bisnis Beras

Pasca penetapan HET beras, PT. Indo Beras Unggul (IBU) menyatakan akan melakukan penyesuaian kualitas produk berasnya dengan standar beras yang dipersyaratkan. Selain itu Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food berencana melakukan divestasi atas anak usahanya di bisnis beras. Kami memperkirakan divestasi baru dilaksanakan pada tahun 2018, jika disetujui dalam RUPSLB.
Kami menunggu informasi lebih lanjut dari perseroan tentang kelangsungan usaha bisnis perusahaan, terutama bisnis beras, dan strategi perusahaan ke depan. Termasuk rencana divestasi anak usaha di bisnis beras.

PE Rendah, Cerminan Fundamental ?
Saat ini AISA diperdagangkan pada PE 6,66x atau di bawah rata-rata PE 3 tahun di 13,64x. Pada rata-rata PE 3 tahun dan EPS’17est. perseroan Rp 148,63, mentranslasikan harga saham AISA Rp 2030. Berdasarkan konsensus Bloomberg, PE’17F AISA sebesar 7,73x atau paling rendah dibandingkan PE’17F konsensus emiten konsumer lain serta di bawah rata-rata PE’17F sektor konsumer konsensus Bloomberg di 28,32x. Valuasi yang relatif rendah itu lebih mencerminkan ketidakpastian perusahaan saat ini akibat kasus IBU dan penurunan kinerja.
Sejak Mei 2017 harga saham AISA tidak searah dengan IHSG, yang diperkirakan mencerminkan kondisi internal perseroan, dimana kinerja 1Q 2017 turun.

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P H
Oct 13,2017 11:59:42

  • Pendapatan bersih LPKR 1H17 mengalami penurunan 3% YoY
  • Peningkatan divisi healthcare menopang tumbuhnya recurring income
  • Masih lemahnya performa 1H17 menyebabkan kami mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD


LPKR bukukan laba bersih Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Pendapatan bersih LPKR meningkat 3% YoY menjadi Rp4,9 triliun pada 1H17. Sementara GPM perseroan turun dari 43,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 41,1% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh meningkatnya penjualan dari divisi large scale integrated development yang memiliki margin lebih rendah dibandingkan urban developement serta adanya kenaikan beban pokok jasa tenaga ahli, gaji, dan kesejahteraan karyawan dari divisi healthcare sebesar 6,4% YoY. Sementara itu, OPM LPKR mengalami penurunan dari 17,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 12,4% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan biaya iklan dan pemasaran sebesar 59,4% YoY. Adapun pada 1H17, perseroan membukukan laba penjualan aset yang tersedia untuk dijual sebesar Rp119 miliar dan mengalami penurunan beban bunga sebesar 57,2% YoY menjadi Rp68 miliar. Untuk itu, laba bersih LPKR hanya mengalami penurunan sebesar 2,1% YoY menjadi Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Recurring income 1H17 meningkat 8% YoY

Recurring income tumbuh 8,0% YoY menjadi Rp3,6 triliun sehingga kontribusi terhadap total pendapatan meningkat dari 65,3% pada 1H16 menjadi 73% pada 1H17. Pertumbuhan itu didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan divisi healthcare sebesar 7,9% YoY menjadi Rp2,8 triliun pada 1H17, yang berasal dari 31 rumah sakit yang dikelola LPKR. Pertumbuhan recurring income tersebut juga didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan ritel mal sebesar 16,8% YoY menjadi Rp191 miliar pada 1H17, yang ditopang oleh meningkatnya kontribusi dari Lippo Mall Puri, Baubau, dan Jambi. Hingga 1H17, LPKR mengelola 47 mal yang tersebar di seluruh Indonesia. Sementara itu, pendapatan aset managemen meningkat 9,4% YoY menjadi Rp205 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh bertambahnya aset yang dikelola serta meningkatnya fee dan pendapatan dividen. Di sisi lain, development revenue mengalami penurunan sebesar 24,7% YoY menjadi Rp1,3 triliun pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh turunnya pendapatan segmen urban development sebesar 41,0% YoY menjadi Rp687 miliar. Sedangkan pendapatan segmen large scale integrated development meningkat 6,2% YoY menjadi Rp648 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh peningkatan pengakuan pendapatan dari Orange County, Millenium Village, dan perkantoran Lippo Thamrin.

LPKR raih marketing sales Rp2,6 triliun

LPKR membukukan marketing sales sebesar Rp2,6 triliun pada 1H17, meningkat signifikan hingga di atas 4x lipat dari 1H16. Kenaikan ini ditopang oleh pertumbuhan yang signifikan dari segmen residensial hingga 36x menjadi Rp2,4 triliun pada 1H17. Kendati demikian, jika dibandingkan dengan target hingga akhir tahun sebesar Rp10 triliun, pencapaian marketing sales ini masih rendah, yakni sebesar 27%. Di sisi lain, perseroan telah mendapatkan persetujuan dari pemegang saham terkait akuisisi properti integrasi di Buton. Perseroan akan mengakuisisi Siloam Hospitals Buton yang menyatu dengan retail mall plaza Buton.

Kami memberikan rekomendasi HOLD dengan target harga 800/saham

Kendati mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan, pencapaian marketing sales LPKR hingga 1H17 masih jauh dari target 2017. Di samping itu, performa segmen urban development juga masih membukukan pelemahan sehingga menghambat pemulihan kinerja LPKR. Untuk itu, kami menurunkan target harga dari Rp865/saham menjadi Rp800/saham. Positifnya, perseroan masih diuntungkan oleh model bisnisnya yang mayoritas dikontribusikan oleh recurring income, yang terutama berasal dari segmen healthcare. Kami juga berharap adanya aksi penjualan aset ke REIT yang dapat memberikan dana segar bagi perseroan. Untuk itu, kami tetap mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD atas saham LPKR.

$LPKR $LPCK $SILO

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P H
Oct 13,2017 11:59:42

  • Pendapatan bersih LPKR 1H17 mengalami penurunan 3% YoY
  • Peningkatan divisi healthcare menopang tumbuhnya recurring income
  • Masih lemahnya performa 1H17 menyebabkan kami mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD


LPKR bukukan laba bersih Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Pendapatan bersih LPKR meningkat 3% YoY menjadi Rp4,9 triliun pada 1H17. Sementara GPM perseroan turun dari 43,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 41,1% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh meningkatnya penjualan dari divisi large scale integrated development yang memiliki margin lebih rendah dibandingkan urban developement serta adanya kenaikan beban pokok jasa tenaga ahli, gaji, dan kesejahteraan karyawan dari divisi healthcare sebesar 6,4% YoY. Sementara itu, OPM LPKR mengalami penurunan dari 17,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 12,4% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan biaya iklan dan pemasaran sebesar 59,4% YoY. Adapun pada 1H17, perseroan membukukan laba penjualan aset yang tersedia untuk dijual sebesar Rp119 miliar dan mengalami penurunan beban bunga sebesar 57,2% YoY menjadi Rp68 miliar. Untuk itu, laba bersih LPKR hanya mengalami penurunan sebesar 2,1% YoY menjadi Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Recurring income 1H17 meningkat 8% YoY

Recurring income tumbuh 8,0% YoY menjadi Rp3,6 triliun sehingga kontribusi terhadap total pendapatan meningkat dari 65,3% pada 1H16 menjadi 73% pada 1H17. Pertumbuhan itu didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan divisi healthcare sebesar 7,9% YoY menjadi Rp2,8 triliun pada 1H17, yang berasal dari 31 rumah sakit yang dikelola LPKR. Pertumbuhan recurring income tersebut juga didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan ritel mal sebesar 16,8% YoY menjadi Rp191 miliar pada 1H17, yang ditopang oleh meningkatnya kontribusi dari Lippo Mall Puri, Baubau, dan Jambi. Hingga 1H17, LPKR mengelola 47 mal yang tersebar di seluruh Indonesia. Sementara itu, pendapatan aset managemen meningkat 9,4% YoY menjadi Rp205 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh bertambahnya aset yang dikelola serta meningkatnya fee dan pendapatan dividen. Di sisi lain, development revenue mengalami penurunan sebesar 24,7% YoY menjadi Rp1,3 triliun pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh turunnya pendapatan segmen urban development sebesar 41,0% YoY menjadi Rp687 miliar. Sedangkan pendapatan segmen large scale integrated development meningkat 6,2% YoY menjadi Rp648 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh peningkatan pengakuan pendapatan dari Orange County, Millenium Village, dan perkantoran Lippo Thamrin.

LPKR raih marketing sales Rp2,6 triliun

LPKR membukukan marketing sales sebesar Rp2,6 triliun pada 1H17, meningkat signifikan hingga di atas 4x lipat dari 1H16. Kenaikan ini ditopang oleh pertumbuhan yang signifikan dari segmen residensial hingga 36x menjadi Rp2,4 triliun pada 1H17. Kendati demikian, jika dibandingkan dengan target hingga akhir tahun sebesar Rp10 triliun, pencapaian marketing sales ini masih rendah, yakni sebesar 27%. Di sisi lain, perseroan telah mendapatkan persetujuan dari pemegang saham terkait akuisisi properti integrasi di Buton. Perseroan akan mengakuisisi Siloam Hospitals Buton yang menyatu dengan retail mall plaza Buton.

Kami memberikan rekomendasi HOLD dengan target harga 800/saham

Kendati mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan, pencapaian marketing sales LPKR hingga 1H17 masih jauh dari target 2017. Di samping itu, performa segmen urban development juga masih membukukan pelemahan sehingga menghambat pemulihan kinerja LPKR. Untuk itu, kami menurunkan target harga dari Rp865/saham menjadi Rp800/saham. Positifnya, perseroan masih diuntungkan oleh model bisnisnya yang mayoritas dikontribusikan oleh recurring income, yang terutama berasal dari segmen healthcare. Kami juga berharap adanya aksi penjualan aset ke REIT yang dapat memberikan dana segar bagi perseroan. Untuk itu, kami tetap mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD atas saham LPKR.

$LPKR $LPCK $SILO

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P H
Oct 13,2017 11:59:42

  • Pendapatan bersih LPKR 1H17 mengalami penurunan 3% YoY
  • Peningkatan divisi healthcare menopang tumbuhnya recurring income
  • Masih lemahnya performa 1H17 menyebabkan kami mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD


LPKR bukukan laba bersih Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Pendapatan bersih LPKR meningkat 3% YoY menjadi Rp4,9 triliun pada 1H17. Sementara GPM perseroan turun dari 43,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 41,1% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh meningkatnya penjualan dari divisi large scale integrated development yang memiliki margin lebih rendah dibandingkan urban developement serta adanya kenaikan beban pokok jasa tenaga ahli, gaji, dan kesejahteraan karyawan dari divisi healthcare sebesar 6,4% YoY. Sementara itu, OPM LPKR mengalami penurunan dari 17,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 12,4% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan biaya iklan dan pemasaran sebesar 59,4% YoY. Adapun pada 1H17, perseroan membukukan laba penjualan aset yang tersedia untuk dijual sebesar Rp119 miliar dan mengalami penurunan beban bunga sebesar 57,2% YoY menjadi Rp68 miliar. Untuk itu, laba bersih LPKR hanya mengalami penurunan sebesar 2,1% YoY menjadi Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Recurring income 1H17 meningkat 8% YoY

Recurring income tumbuh 8,0% YoY menjadi Rp3,6 triliun sehingga kontribusi terhadap total pendapatan meningkat dari 65,3% pada 1H16 menjadi 73% pada 1H17. Pertumbuhan itu didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan divisi healthcare sebesar 7,9% YoY menjadi Rp2,8 triliun pada 1H17, yang berasal dari 31 rumah sakit yang dikelola LPKR. Pertumbuhan recurring income tersebut juga didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan ritel mal sebesar 16,8% YoY menjadi Rp191 miliar pada 1H17, yang ditopang oleh meningkatnya kontribusi dari Lippo Mall Puri, Baubau, dan Jambi. Hingga 1H17, LPKR mengelola 47 mal yang tersebar di seluruh Indonesia. Sementara itu, pendapatan aset managemen meningkat 9,4% YoY menjadi Rp205 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh bertambahnya aset yang dikelola serta meningkatnya fee dan pendapatan dividen. Di sisi lain, development revenue mengalami penurunan sebesar 24,7% YoY menjadi Rp1,3 triliun pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh turunnya pendapatan segmen urban development sebesar 41,0% YoY menjadi Rp687 miliar. Sedangkan pendapatan segmen large scale integrated development meningkat 6,2% YoY menjadi Rp648 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh peningkatan pengakuan pendapatan dari Orange County, Millenium Village, dan perkantoran Lippo Thamrin.

LPKR raih marketing sales Rp2,6 triliun

LPKR membukukan marketing sales sebesar Rp2,6 triliun pada 1H17, meningkat signifikan hingga di atas 4x lipat dari 1H16. Kenaikan ini ditopang oleh pertumbuhan yang signifikan dari segmen residensial hingga 36x menjadi Rp2,4 triliun pada 1H17. Kendati demikian, jika dibandingkan dengan target hingga akhir tahun sebesar Rp10 triliun, pencapaian marketing sales ini masih rendah, yakni sebesar 27%. Di sisi lain, perseroan telah mendapatkan persetujuan dari pemegang saham terkait akuisisi properti integrasi di Buton. Perseroan akan mengakuisisi Siloam Hospitals Buton yang menyatu dengan retail mall plaza Buton.

Kami memberikan rekomendasi HOLD dengan target harga 800/saham

Kendati mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan, pencapaian marketing sales LPKR hingga 1H17 masih jauh dari target 2017. Di samping itu, performa segmen urban development juga masih membukukan pelemahan sehingga menghambat pemulihan kinerja LPKR. Untuk itu, kami menurunkan target harga dari Rp865/saham menjadi Rp800/saham. Positifnya, perseroan masih diuntungkan oleh model bisnisnya yang mayoritas dikontribusikan oleh recurring income, yang terutama berasal dari segmen healthcare. Kami juga berharap adanya aksi penjualan aset ke REIT yang dapat memberikan dana segar bagi perseroan. Untuk itu, kami tetap mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD atas saham LPKR.

$LPKR $LPCK $SILO

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 11:59:42

  • Pendapatan bersih LPKR 1H17 mengalami penurunan 3% YoY
  • Peningkatan divisi healthcare menopang tumbuhnya recurring income
  • Masih lemahnya performa 1H17 menyebabkan kami mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD


LPKR bukukan laba bersih Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Pendapatan bersih LPKR meningkat 3% YoY menjadi Rp4,9 triliun pada 1H17. Sementara GPM perseroan turun dari 43,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 41,1% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh meningkatnya penjualan dari divisi large scale integrated development yang memiliki margin lebih rendah dibandingkan urban developement serta adanya kenaikan beban pokok jasa tenaga ahli, gaji, dan kesejahteraan karyawan dari divisi healthcare sebesar 6,4% YoY. Sementara itu, OPM LPKR mengalami penurunan dari 17,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 12,4% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan biaya iklan dan pemasaran sebesar 59,4% YoY. Adapun pada 1H17, perseroan membukukan laba penjualan aset yang tersedia untuk dijual sebesar Rp119 miliar dan mengalami penurunan beban bunga sebesar 57,2% YoY menjadi Rp68 miliar. Untuk itu, laba bersih LPKR hanya mengalami penurunan sebesar 2,1% YoY menjadi Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Recurring income 1H17 meningkat 8% YoY

Recurring income tumbuh 8,0% YoY menjadi Rp3,6 triliun sehingga kontribusi terhadap total pendapatan meningkat dari 65,3% pada 1H16 menjadi 73% pada 1H17. Pertumbuhan itu didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan divisi healthcare sebesar 7,9% YoY menjadi Rp2,8 triliun pada 1H17, yang berasal dari 31 rumah sakit yang dikelola LPKR. Pertumbuhan recurring income tersebut juga didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan ritel mal sebesar 16,8% YoY menjadi Rp191 miliar pada 1H17, yang ditopang oleh meningkatnya kontribusi dari Lippo Mall Puri, Baubau, dan Jambi. Hingga 1H17, LPKR mengelola 47 mal yang tersebar di seluruh Indonesia. Sementara itu, pendapatan aset managemen meningkat 9,4% YoY menjadi Rp205 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh bertambahnya aset yang dikelola serta meningkatnya fee dan pendapatan dividen. Di sisi lain, development revenue mengalami penurunan sebesar 24,7% YoY menjadi Rp1,3 triliun pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh turunnya pendapatan segmen urban development sebesar 41,0% YoY menjadi Rp687 miliar. Sedangkan pendapatan segmen large scale integrated development meningkat 6,2% YoY menjadi Rp648 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh peningkatan pengakuan pendapatan dari Orange County, Millenium Village, dan perkantoran Lippo Thamrin.

LPKR raih marketing sales Rp2,6 triliun

LPKR membukukan marketing sales sebesar Rp2,6 triliun pada 1H17, meningkat signifikan hingga di atas 4x lipat dari 1H16. Kenaikan ini ditopang oleh pertumbuhan yang signifikan dari segmen residensial hingga 36x menjadi Rp2,4 triliun pada 1H17. Kendati demikian, jika dibandingkan dengan target hingga akhir tahun sebesar Rp10 triliun, pencapaian marketing sales ini masih rendah, yakni sebesar 27%. Di sisi lain, perseroan telah mendapatkan persetujuan dari pemegang saham terkait akuisisi properti integrasi di Buton. Perseroan akan mengakuisisi Siloam Hospitals Buton yang menyatu dengan retail mall plaza Buton.

Kami memberikan rekomendasi HOLD dengan target harga 800/saham

Kendati mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan, pencapaian marketing sales LPKR hingga 1H17 masih jauh dari target 2017. Di samping itu, performa segmen urban development juga masih membukukan pelemahan sehingga menghambat pemulihan kinerja LPKR. Untuk itu, kami menurunkan target harga dari Rp865/saham menjadi Rp800/saham. Positifnya, perseroan masih diuntungkan oleh model bisnisnya yang mayoritas dikontribusikan oleh recurring income, yang terutama berasal dari segmen healthcare. Kami juga berharap adanya aksi penjualan aset ke REIT yang dapat memberikan dana segar bagi perseroan. Untuk itu, kami tetap mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD atas saham LPKR.

$LPKR $LPCK $SILO

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P H
Oct 13,2017 11:54:55

RHB Investor Gathering – Economic and Political Outlook Towards 2019 Election

Yesterday, we held an Investor Gathering with keynote speaker Mr. Faisal  Basri, discussing Indonesia’s economic and political outlook towards 2019 election.

Mr. Basri sees a solid macroeconomic situation for Indonesia. There is risk  in the fiscal deficit due to limited government revenue, but it is still manageable by lowering capital spending. Slower growth in households consumption is likely to be driven by shifting to saving from spending by consumers. Political condition is conducive with a high electability for President Joko Widodo. Overall, Indonesia’s democracy situation is more stable than its neighbouring countries.

Below are keys takeaways:

  • Solid macroeconomics. Indonesia’s macroeconomic condition is solid which is indicated by low inflation (3.7% in Sep), lower Central Bank 7-day repo rate (4.25% in Sep), stable IDR/USD exchange rate (IDR13,500/USD), and high foreign reserves (USD129.4bn in Sep). 
     
  • There is risk in fiscal deficit, but it is manageable. From the fiscal side, limited government revenue affects the economy. Ambitious 2017 tax revenue target (+16% vs 2016 realisation) is unlikely to be achieved, thus will likely cause fiscal deficit to be higher than its target (above 2.9%). Mr. Basri suggested slower capital spending, such as rescheduling infrastructure projects and reducing state capital injection. Otherwise, macroeconomic stability may be disturbed. 
     
  • Slower consumption growth, but not purchasing power. In middle-to-high income households, there is indication of shifting to saving from consumption. Households saving-to-income ratio increased to 20.8% in 2Q17 (from 18.6% in 2Q16).

    For low-income consumers – e.g. farmers, construction workers, and other informal workers – their purchasing power generally have declined for quite some time. Moreover, the delay of social assistance disbursement to this group worsened the situation. Nevertheless, this group has a small contribution of 17% of the national private consumption. 
     
  • President Joko Widodo’s electability is high. Despite slower growth in  consumer spending – especially in low-end segment – President Joko Widodo’s electability is high, increasing to 41.6% in Apr-17 (from 36.3% in  Apr-16), according to a Kompas survey. In addition, satisfaction rate on Joko Widodo administration is high, stable at around 65%. Overall, Indonesia’s  democracy situation is more stable than its neighbouring countries. (Andrey Wijaya, Rizki Fajar)
     

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P H
Oct 13,2017 11:49:42

Building Materials – Infrastructure Projects Boost Bulk Cement Sales Growth

9M17 domestic cement sales came in at 47m tonnes (+6.6% YoY), driven by  bulk cement sales. We believe the main sales growth driver was the rampup  in infrastructure projects. Cement sales are cyclically higher in 2H of the  year, and our ground checks indicate that cement makers slowed down the  rate of their price reductions in 3Q17. However, in the long term, we expect  competition in the cement industry to remain intense. National un-utilised  production capacity is likely to increase, as production capacity is growing  faster than demand. Maintain NEUTRAL on the sector.

Bulk cement sales growth improves. We believe the ramping-up of  infrastructure projects is likely the main sales growth driver for Indonesia’s  cement industry. 9M17 domestic cement sales increased to 47m tonnes  (+6.6% YoY). This was driven by bulk cement sales – which accounted for  c.25% of 9M17 domestic cement sales – which grew 13.6% YoY.  In Java, cement sales, which accounted for 57% of 9M17 domestic sales,  grew faster (+11.3% YoY) than that of ex-Java, which were flat (+1% YoY).  3Q17 domestic cement sales jumped to 18.4m tonnes (+29.5% QoQ,  +21.1% YoY). We opine that this significant sales increase was partly driven  by the longer working days in the absence of the Lebaran holiday in June.

Indocement’s market share is stable, while Semen Indonesia’s (SI)  slipped. We estimate that Indocement was able to maintan its 3Q17 market  share at 25.4% (2Q17: 25.5%). During the quarter, it widened the sales  coverage of its second-tier brand, Rajawali, which is now available in 30  cities in Jakarta, Banten, West Java and Central Java. Previously, Rajawali  cement was only available in a few cities in Banten and West Java.  SI’s 3Q17 market share dipped to 40.3% (2Q17: 41.1%), likely due to the  slow rate of its ASP reduction.

Slower ASP reduction. Cement sales are cyclically high in 2H of the year  – which leads to easing competition. Hence, cement makers slowed down  in reducing their selling prices. SI’s ASP reduction decelerated – its domestic  ex-factory ASP declined by just 1.2% QoQ in 3Q17 (2Q17: -2.4% QoQ) This  is in line with on-the-ground checks we conducted on retail selling prices, at  building materials stores in Jakarta, Bali and Makasar. Our latest ground  checks suggest that cement retail selling prices were flat MoM in September.

Expect competition to remain intense in 2018. Despite the slower price  reduction in 3Q17, competition in Indonesia’s cement industry likely to  remain intense over the long term. In 2018, national cement production  capacity is estimated to reach 113m tonnes (+9% YoY), while we estimate  national cement demand to increase to 70m tonnes (+7% YoY).  In our calculation, the national cement overcapacity is likely to increase to  43m tonnes in 2018F (vs 39m tonnes in 2017F), while un-utilised production  capacity may rise to 38% in 2018F (vs 37.1% in 2017F).

Maintain NEUTRAL. The announcement of higher monthly cement sales in 4Q17 may improve investor sentiment on the cement companies’ respective share prices. However, we expect competition to remain tough over the long term. Premised on this, we keep our NEUTRAL weighting on the cement sector. (Andrey Wijaya)

$INTP $SMGR $SMCB $SMBR

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 11:49:42

Building Materials – Infrastructure Projects Boost Bulk Cement Sales Growth

9M17 domestic cement sales came in at 47m tonnes (+6.6% YoY), driven by  bulk cement sales. We believe the main sales growth driver was the rampup  in infrastructure projects. Cement sales are cyclically higher in 2H of the  year, and our ground checks indicate that cement makers slowed down the  rate of their price reductions in 3Q17. However, in the long term, we expect  competition in the cement industry to remain intense. National un-utilised  production capacity is likely to increase, as production capacity is growing  faster than demand. Maintain NEUTRAL on the sector.

Bulk cement sales growth improves. We believe the ramping-up of  infrastructure projects is likely the main sales growth driver for Indonesia’s  cement industry. 9M17 domestic cement sales increased to 47m tonnes  (+6.6% YoY). This was driven by bulk cement sales – which accounted for  c.25% of 9M17 domestic cement sales – which grew 13.6% YoY.  In Java, cement sales, which accounted for 57% of 9M17 domestic sales,  grew faster (+11.3% YoY) than that of ex-Java, which were flat (+1% YoY).  3Q17 domestic cement sales jumped to 18.4m tonnes (+29.5% QoQ,  +21.1% YoY). We opine that this significant sales increase was partly driven  by the longer working days in the absence of the Lebaran holiday in June.

Indocement’s market share is stable, while Semen Indonesia’s (SI)  slipped. We estimate that Indocement was able to maintan its 3Q17 market  share at 25.4% (2Q17: 25.5%). During the quarter, it widened the sales  coverage of its second-tier brand, Rajawali, which is now available in 30  cities in Jakarta, Banten, West Java and Central Java. Previously, Rajawali  cement was only available in a few cities in Banten and West Java.  SI’s 3Q17 market share dipped to 40.3% (2Q17: 41.1%), likely due to the  slow rate of its ASP reduction.

Slower ASP reduction. Cement sales are cyclically high in 2H of the year  – which leads to easing competition. Hence, cement makers slowed down  in reducing their selling prices. SI’s ASP reduction decelerated – its domestic  ex-factory ASP declined by just 1.2% QoQ in 3Q17 (2Q17: -2.4% QoQ) This  is in line with on-the-ground checks we conducted on retail selling prices, at  building materials stores in Jakarta, Bali and Makasar. Our latest ground  checks suggest that cement retail selling prices were flat MoM in September.

Expect competition to remain intense in 2018. Despite the slower price  reduction in 3Q17, competition in Indonesia’s cement industry likely to  remain intense over the long term. In 2018, national cement production  capacity is estimated to reach 113m tonnes (+9% YoY), while we estimate  national cement demand to increase to 70m tonnes (+7% YoY).  In our calculation, the national cement overcapacity is likely to increase to  43m tonnes in 2018F (vs 39m tonnes in 2017F), while un-utilised production  capacity may rise to 38% in 2018F (vs 37.1% in 2017F).

Maintain NEUTRAL. The announcement of higher monthly cement sales in 4Q17 may improve investor sentiment on the cement companies’ respective share prices. However, we expect competition to remain tough over the long term. Premised on this, we keep our NEUTRAL weighting on the cement sector. (Andrey Wijaya)

$INTP $SMGR $SMCB $SMBR

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 11:49:42

Building Materials – Infrastructure Projects Boost Bulk Cement Sales Growth

9M17 domestic cement sales came in at 47m tonnes (+6.6% YoY), driven by  bulk cement sales. We believe the main sales growth driver was the rampup  in infrastructure projects. Cement sales are cyclically higher in 2H of the  year, and our ground checks indicate that cement makers slowed down the  rate of their price reductions in 3Q17. However, in the long term, we expect  competition in the cement industry to remain intense. National un-utilised  production capacity is likely to increase, as production capacity is growing  faster than demand. Maintain NEUTRAL on the sector.

Bulk cement sales growth improves. We believe the ramping-up of  infrastructure projects is likely the main sales growth driver for Indonesia’s  cement industry. 9M17 domestic cement sales increased to 47m tonnes  (+6.6% YoY). This was driven by bulk cement sales – which accounted for  c.25% of 9M17 domestic cement sales – which grew 13.6% YoY.  In Java, cement sales, which accounted for 57% of 9M17 domestic sales,  grew faster (+11.3% YoY) than that of ex-Java, which were flat (+1% YoY).  3Q17 domestic cement sales jumped to 18.4m tonnes (+29.5% QoQ,  +21.1% YoY). We opine that this significant sales increase was partly driven  by the longer working days in the absence of the Lebaran holiday in June.

Indocement’s market share is stable, while Semen Indonesia’s (SI)  slipped. We estimate that Indocement was able to maintan its 3Q17 market  share at 25.4% (2Q17: 25.5%). During the quarter, it widened the sales  coverage of its second-tier brand, Rajawali, which is now available in 30  cities in Jakarta, Banten, West Java and Central Java. Previously, Rajawali  cement was only available in a few cities in Banten and West Java.  SI’s 3Q17 market share dipped to 40.3% (2Q17: 41.1%), likely due to the  slow rate of its ASP reduction.

Slower ASP reduction. Cement sales are cyclically high in 2H of the year  – which leads to easing competition. Hence, cement makers slowed down  in reducing their selling prices. SI’s ASP reduction decelerated – its domestic  ex-factory ASP declined by just 1.2% QoQ in 3Q17 (2Q17: -2.4% QoQ) This  is in line with on-the-ground checks we conducted on retail selling prices, at  building materials stores in Jakarta, Bali and Makasar. Our latest ground  checks suggest that cement retail selling prices were flat MoM in September.

Expect competition to remain intense in 2018. Despite the slower price  reduction in 3Q17, competition in Indonesia’s cement industry likely to  remain intense over the long term. In 2018, national cement production  capacity is estimated to reach 113m tonnes (+9% YoY), while we estimate  national cement demand to increase to 70m tonnes (+7% YoY).  In our calculation, the national cement overcapacity is likely to increase to  43m tonnes in 2018F (vs 39m tonnes in 2017F), while un-utilised production  capacity may rise to 38% in 2018F (vs 37.1% in 2017F).

Maintain NEUTRAL. The announcement of higher monthly cement sales in 4Q17 may improve investor sentiment on the cement companies’ respective share prices. However, we expect competition to remain tough over the long term. Premised on this, we keep our NEUTRAL weighting on the cement sector. (Andrey Wijaya)

$INTP $SMGR $SMCB $SMBR

hide
P H
Oct 13,2017 11:49:42

Building Materials – Infrastructure Projects Boost Bulk Cement Sales Growth

9M17 domestic cement sales came in at 47m tonnes (+6.6% YoY), driven by  bulk cement sales. We believe the main sales growth driver was the rampup  in infrastructure projects. Cement sales are cyclically higher in 2H of the  year, and our ground checks indicate that cement makers slowed down the  rate of their price reductions in 3Q17. However, in the long term, we expect  competition in the cement industry to remain intense. National un-utilised  production capacity is likely to increase, as production capacity is growing  faster than demand. Maintain NEUTRAL on the sector.

Bulk cement sales growth improves. We believe the ramping-up of  infrastructure projects is likely the main sales growth driver for Indonesia’s  cement industry. 9M17 domestic cement sales increased to 47m tonnes  (+6.6% YoY). This was driven by bulk cement sales – which accounted for  c.25% of 9M17 domestic cement sales – which grew 13.6% YoY.  In Java, cement sales, which accounted for 57% of 9M17 domestic sales,  grew faster (+11.3% YoY) than that of ex-Java, which were flat (+1% YoY).  3Q17 domestic cement sales jumped to 18.4m tonnes (+29.5% QoQ,  +21.1% YoY). We opine that this significant sales increase was partly driven  by the longer working days in the absence of the Lebaran holiday in June.

Indocement’s market share is stable, while Semen Indonesia’s (SI)  slipped. We estimate that Indocement was able to maintan its 3Q17 market  share at 25.4% (2Q17: 25.5%). During the quarter, it widened the sales  coverage of its second-tier brand, Rajawali, which is now available in 30  cities in Jakarta, Banten, West Java and Central Java. Previously, Rajawali  cement was only available in a few cities in Banten and West Java.  SI’s 3Q17 market share dipped to 40.3% (2Q17: 41.1%), likely due to the  slow rate of its ASP reduction.

Slower ASP reduction. Cement sales are cyclically high in 2H of the year  – which leads to easing competition. Hence, cement makers slowed down  in reducing their selling prices. SI’s ASP reduction decelerated – its domestic  ex-factory ASP declined by just 1.2% QoQ in 3Q17 (2Q17: -2.4% QoQ) This  is in line with on-the-ground checks we conducted on retail selling prices, at  building materials stores in Jakarta, Bali and Makasar. Our latest ground  checks suggest that cement retail selling prices were flat MoM in September.

Expect competition to remain intense in 2018. Despite the slower price  reduction in 3Q17, competition in Indonesia’s cement industry likely to  remain intense over the long term. In 2018, national cement production  capacity is estimated to reach 113m tonnes (+9% YoY), while we estimate  national cement demand to increase to 70m tonnes (+7% YoY).  In our calculation, the national cement overcapacity is likely to increase to  43m tonnes in 2018F (vs 39m tonnes in 2017F), while un-utilised production  capacity may rise to 38% in 2018F (vs 37.1% in 2017F).

Maintain NEUTRAL. The announcement of higher monthly cement sales in 4Q17 may improve investor sentiment on the cement companies’ respective share prices. However, we expect competition to remain tough over the long term. Premised on this, we keep our NEUTRAL weighting on the cement sector. (Andrey Wijaya)

$INTP $SMGR $SMCB $SMBR

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P H
Oct 13,2017 11:49:42

Building Materials – Infrastructure Projects Boost Bulk Cement Sales Growth

9M17 domestic cement sales came in at 47m tonnes (+6.6% YoY), driven by  bulk cement sales. We believe the main sales growth driver was the rampup  in infrastructure projects. Cement sales are cyclically higher in 2H of the  year, and our ground checks indicate that cement makers slowed down the  rate of their price reductions in 3Q17. However, in the long term, we expect  competition in the cement industry to remain intense. National un-utilised  production capacity is likely to increase, as production capacity is growing  faster than demand. Maintain NEUTRAL on the sector.

Bulk cement sales growth improves. We believe the ramping-up of  infrastructure projects is likely the main sales growth driver for Indonesia’s  cement industry. 9M17 domestic cement sales increased to 47m tonnes  (+6.6% YoY). This was driven by bulk cement sales – which accounted for  c.25% of 9M17 domestic cement sales – which grew 13.6% YoY.  In Java, cement sales, which accounted for 57% of 9M17 domestic sales,  grew faster (+11.3% YoY) than that of ex-Java, which were flat (+1% YoY).  3Q17 domestic cement sales jumped to 18.4m tonnes (+29.5% QoQ,  +21.1% YoY). We opine that this significant sales increase was partly driven  by the longer working days in the absence of the Lebaran holiday in June.

Indocement’s market share is stable, while Semen Indonesia’s (SI)  slipped. We estimate that Indocement was able to maintan its 3Q17 market  share at 25.4% (2Q17: 25.5%). During the quarter, it widened the sales  coverage of its second-tier brand, Rajawali, which is now available in 30  cities in Jakarta, Banten, West Java and Central Java. Previously, Rajawali  cement was only available in a few cities in Banten and West Java.  SI’s 3Q17 market share dipped to 40.3% (2Q17: 41.1%), likely due to the  slow rate of its ASP reduction.

Slower ASP reduction. Cement sales are cyclically high in 2H of the year  – which leads to easing competition. Hence, cement makers slowed down  in reducing their selling prices. SI’s ASP reduction decelerated – its domestic  ex-factory ASP declined by just 1.2% QoQ in 3Q17 (2Q17: -2.4% QoQ) This  is in line with on-the-ground checks we conducted on retail selling prices, at  building materials stores in Jakarta, Bali and Makasar. Our latest ground  checks suggest that cement retail selling prices were flat MoM in September.

Expect competition to remain intense in 2018. Despite the slower price  reduction in 3Q17, competition in Indonesia’s cement industry likely to  remain intense over the long term. In 2018, national cement production  capacity is estimated to reach 113m tonnes (+9% YoY), while we estimate  national cement demand to increase to 70m tonnes (+7% YoY).  In our calculation, the national cement overcapacity is likely to increase to  43m tonnes in 2018F (vs 39m tonnes in 2017F), while un-utilised production  capacity may rise to 38% in 2018F (vs 37.1% in 2017F).

Maintain NEUTRAL. The announcement of higher monthly cement sales in 4Q17 may improve investor sentiment on the cement companies’ respective share prices. However, we expect competition to remain tough over the long term. Premised on this, we keep our NEUTRAL weighting on the cement sector. (Andrey Wijaya)

$INTP $SMGR $SMCB $SMBR

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P H
Oct 13,2017 11:45:14

Alam Sutera ($ASRI) – 9M17 Marketing sales below estimate

Alam Sutera booked 9M17 marketing sales at IDR1,261bn (-55% YoY). This achievement only accounted for 34% of our fullyear  target of IDR3,728bn (25% from company’s target of IDR5,000bn) and below  its 4-year historical average of 81%. Presales in 3Q17 was weak as it fell 30%  QoQ & -66% YoY.

Based on our latest discussion, the management has no plans to revise its target  marketing sales. We have also confirmed that it has not recorded the agreed land  sales to China Fortune Land Development (CFLD) (600340 CH, NR) in 3Q17  because there were ~5% of the land yet to be acquired, thus we estimate this will  be booked in 4Q17.

Furthermore, management has yet to close the IDR2trn Office Tower sale with  the negotiation still ongoing amongst three potential buyers. Based on 5-year historical data, we estimate the average achievement in 4Q was IDR755bn,  combined with 9M17 numbers and land sales to CFLD in 4Q17 we estimate  marketing sales by the end of the year will be ~IDR3.02trn excluding the Office  Tower sale. Currently we have a BUY call on the counter with TP of IDR540,  however we will be revisiting our assumptions to better reflect current condition.  (Yualdo Tirtakencana)

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