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P H
Oct 09,2017 11:45:18

We visited Agung Podomoro ($APLN) to learn more about the  company’s plans regarding the reclamation island and here are the key  points:

Media has reported that moratorium on G island will be lifted soon following  C & D island and currently management is waiting for the Regional  Regulation (Raperda) to be issued by the local government. Management  conservatively estimate that Raperda will be issued in 2018.

Land Bank on Pluit City reaches 160 ha. Though around 25% of that has  been sold, it was recorded as Customer Advances due to the moratorium  status.

Once Raperda for land reclamation is issued, the company will be able to  resume marketing sale on its Pluit City project. We think this will be the near  term catalyst for the company.

The company has signed a Sales Purchase Agreement with Thai-listed  Strategic Property Investors Company Limited (REITS) regarding the sale  its Pullman Jakarta Central Park Hotel for ~IDR1.3trn. Management  estimate the company will received around IDR800bn of the proceeds and  the company effectively still owns 18% of the hotel through the REIT.

Land bank for future developments stood at 403 ha where 285 ha of it are  industrial lands that has been agreed to be sold to China Fortune Land  Development (600340 CH, NR) in 2019 – 2020 once the company has  cleared all the land certifications.

Marketing sales until 1H17 has reached IDR2.4trn or 80% from its IDR3trn  target this year. Management is guiding 10% growth for this year’s top line  and bottom line.

Using management’s guidance, we estimate that the stock is trading at 8x  FY17F P/E, Not Rated. (Yualdo Tirtakencana)

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P H
Dec 14,2016 08:06:02

Property (Overweight), ‘Tis The Season To Be Jolly About Mortgages
 
Our ground checks reveal that commercial banks are stopping their promotional mortgage rates. However, as they are aiming for double-digit mortgage growth rates next year, we expect them to re-introduce packages at lower rates as well – since the rates do not yet reflect the latest cut made by BI in Oct. Note that the combination of the relaxation of LTV thresholds and lower mortgage rates following the BI rate cut during 3Q16 resulted in a shifting of consumer preferences back to obtaining financing for properties via a mortgage.
¨ Promo on hold, but... we learnt that some banks are stopping their promotional mortgage packages this month. The current normal mortgage rate has a fixed interest rate of 9.5-10.25% for one year. Bank Central Asia (BCA) ($BBCA) is still offering the lowest mortgage rate with its latest Fix & Cap promotion, ie 7.99% pa fixed interest for the first three years and capped for a further three years at 8.99% pa. This is almost 50bps lower than what was offered in its previous Fix & Cap promotion. However, we believe IND Banks would continue to introduce lower mortgage rates in the future as:

i. Banks are aiming for double-digit growth in their mortgage segments in 2017. BCA and Bank CIMB Niaga ($BNGA) are aiming for 12% and 9-10% mortgage loan growth respectively;

ii. Based on research by rumah123.com, the most important factor in buying properties is the Bank Indonesia (BI) rate. Most buyers still utilise mortgage facilities to purchase properties. This is also reflected in the trend shifting back towards taking a mortgage as a payment method during 3Q16. This is due to a combination of the relaxation of the loan-to-value (LTV) thresholds and lower mortgage rates following BI’s rate cut.

As such, we expect banks to start re-introducing their respective mortgages at lower rates earliest by Jan 2017. Their current mortgage rates do not yet reflect the latest BI rate cut, which was made in October. Note, also, that presales activities in December are more moderate.

¨ Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We keep our OVERWEIGHT rating on the sector, as we expect a better outlook in 2017 as the following factors have already been priced in:

i. All the catalysts that include the tax amnesty;

ii. A potentially lower benchmark interest rate;

iii. The relaxation of the LTV threshold;

iv. The allowance for properties under construction to come under a second mortgage.

The share prices of property counters under our coverage have softened following public protests on 4 Nov that demanded incumbent Jakarta governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, commonly known as Ahok, be arrested for blasphemy. Share prices dropped further after the US election was concluded on 9 Nov. On average, share prices have plunged 9% YTD since 4 Nov. These numbers have recovered by 5% on average from their lowest level during the same period. Nonetheless, the sector is currently valued at a 65% discount to RNAV, or around -1.5SD from its 3-year mean of 56%, which looks compelling. (Lydia Suwandi)

$CTRA $ASRI $BSDE $SMRA $APLN $BKSL

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P H
Apr 26,2016 13:58:10
Jakarta’s reclamation project will be put under moratorium

The Central Government and Provincial Government of DKI Jakarta have agreed to put a moratorium on Jakarta’s reclamation project until a clear regulation have been agreed by all related parties. The Government wants to coordinate and harmonize several regulations that might create confusion in regards to reclamation. They will form a team made up from Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Ministry of Maritime affairs and Fisheries, Maritime Communications Ministry, Ministry of Transportation, Cabinet Secretariat and Provincial Government of DKI Jakarta to discuss about the issues regarding reclamation regulations.

$APLN $DILD $PJAA
Bear
P H
Apr 20,2016 12:16:06
Developers received lower ratings as risks surge

State ratings agency or Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) recently issued lower ratings and a less favorable outlook for some property developers. Intiland (DILD) received both lower rating and negative outlook due to company’s weakening capital structure and cash flow, of which resulted from smaller revenues and higher loans booked as of Dec’15. Though Pefindo maintained Agung Podomoro (APLN)’s (A-) rating, it changed its outlook to negative as the ongoing legal case would taint company’s brand and business reputation. Meanwhile, Modernland (MDLN) received negative outlook despite its (A) rating due to delayed property handovers and MDLN’s Rp6.79tn indebtedness, a 34.72% increase YoY

$DILD $APLN $MDLN
Bear
P H
Apr 20,2016 08:50:54
Akhirnya, Pemerintah Terbitkan Aturan Kepemilikan Hunian untuk Orang Asing http://kom.ps/AFuuNb

Berikut daftar harga minimal pembelian rumah tinggal oleh orang asing:

DKI Jakarta Rp 10 miliar
Banten Rp 5 miliar
Jawa Barat Rp 5 miliar
Jawa Tengah Rp 3 miliar
Yogyakarta Rp 3 miliar
Jawa Timur Rp 5 miliar
Bali Rp 3 miliar
Nusa Tenggara Barat Rp 2 miliar
Sumatera Utara Rp 2 miliar
Kalimantan Timur Rp 2 miliar
Sulawesi Selatan Rp 2 miliar
Daerah lainnya Rp 1 miliar

Berikut daftar harga minimal pembelian satuan rumah susun (apartemen) oleh orang asing:

DKI Jakarta Rp 5 miliar
Banten Rp 1 miliar
Jawa Barat Rp 1 miliar
Jawa Tengah
Yogyakarta Rp 1 miliar
Jawa Timur Rp 1,5 miliar
Bali Rp 2 miliar
Nusa Tenggara Barat Rp 1 miliar
Sumatera Utara Rp 1 miliar
Kalimantan Timur Rp 1 miliar
Sulawesi Selatan Rp 1 miliar
Daerah lain Rp 750 juta

Akhirnya, Pemerintah Terbitkan Aturan Kepemilikan Hunian untuk Orang Asing

Kementerian Agraria dan Tata Ruang/Badan Pertanahan Nasional (ATR/BPN) akhirnya mengeluarkan aturan kepemilikan hunian bagi orang asing.

Aturan tersebut tertuang dalam Peraturan Menteri ATR/Kepala BPN Nomor 13 Tahun 2016 tentang tata cara pemberian, pelepasan, atau pengalihan hak atas pemilikan rumah tempat tinggal atau hunian oleh orang asing yang berkedudukan di Indonesia.

"Sudah saya tanda tangani dan ini menjadi tindak lanjut dari Peraturan Pemerintah Nomor 103 Tahun 2015," ujar Menteri ATR/BPN Ferry Mursyidan Baldan di Batam, Kamis (14/4/2016).

Aturan kepemilikan hunian bagi orang asing dikeluarkan untuk mendorong iklim investasi di Indonesia. Menurut Ferry, selama ini investor asing membutuhkan fasilitas perumahan untuk mendukung bisnis mereka di Indonesia.

"Ini bagian kemudahan perizinan. Kita berikan percepatan, ketepatan, dan kepastian bagi investor," katanya.

Kepemilikan dapat berupa rumah tunggal ataupun rumah susun dan hanya diberikan kepada orang asing yang memiliki izin tinggal di Indonesia.

Selain itu, pembelian hanya berlaku untuk pembelian baru langsung dari pengembang atau pemilik.

$BSDE $ASRI $CTRP $CTRA $CTRS $PWON $APLN $LPCK $LPKR
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P H
Apr 07,2016 09:02:58
Jakarta governor Ahok to clear illegal buildings on C Island, North Jakarta. Ahok stated that there are many buildings on C island, owned by Kapuk Naga Indah (subsidiary of Agung Sedayu) that are not registered legally.

$APLN $DILD $PJAA
Bear
P H
Apr 05,2016 15:34:07
Property: New in the Hood

- We forecast a slow 1Q16 marketing sales, with most property companies only meeting 5-15% of their FY16F. Most property companies are still waiting for tax amnesty before launching a brand new project.

- Another strong launch from BSDE. BSDE has just introduced a new complex called The Mozia within the BSD area. They have launched a cluster called “Amarine” in the 27th of March, 2016. The Amarine cluster has a total of 207 units (37 land plots and 170 houses). Take up rate has been pretty good at 87%. Houses’ land size ranges 60sqm – 96sqm; while land plot size ranges 98sqm – 154sqm. The house pricing is Rp2-2.5bn. The land ASP is around Rp14.7mn/sqm; implying around Rp280bn of marketing sales.

- Weak take-up rate from JRPT. JRPT introduced a new Japanese smart living concept through its newly launched product called “Piazza”. The housing complex is designed by Osamu Nishida, a Japanese winning architect. Land size in “Piazza” is ranging from 60sqm to 97sqm, while selling price starts from Rp1.8bn to Rp2.7bn, with average land ASP at Rp22.5mn/sqm. Based on our channel check, only 15 units were sold during the launch (20% take up rate), with estimated marketing sales of around Rp30-40bn. We think take up rates are weak as the design does not suit Indonesian taste.

- Citra Raya Tangerang is aiming at the sweet spot. In the beginning, the company launched the Cluster Vernazza, however due to strong take up rates (3x oversubscribed), the company has launched the second cluster. Prices range is Rp450-600mn per unit. CTRA has earned more than Rp160 billion of sales from the launch of Vernazza and Bolzano in Citra Raya Tangerang.

- APLN is on-track, others are trying to catch-up. We forecast APLN to be on-track due to its Podomoro Golf View project. Most of the property companies are starting their first launch in April. MDLN will launch a low rise in JGC and SMRA also will launch another cluster in Bandung.

$BSDE $JRPT $CTRA $APLN
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P H
Apr 05,2016 11:13:17
Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) names Agung Podomoro Land (APLN) CEO graft suspect.  In total, the anti-graft commission named 6 people to be the suspects in 2 separate high-profile bribery cases involving the reclamation of the North Jakarta coast and embezzlement in state-owned construction firm Brantas Abipraya. KPK spokeswomen Yuyuk Andriati said the commission has named Mohamad Sanusi, a Jakarta councilor from the Gerindra Party, a suspect for allegedly accepting bribes from APLN to smooth the passage of bylaws required for zoning in the reclamation area. 2 employees of APLN are also named suspects, namely president director Ariesman Widjaja and staffer Trinanda Prihantoro. Separately, KPK is also investigating property developer Agung Sedayu on the project.

Comment: other listed companies are DILD and PJAA. It remains to be seen whether the same issues will arise on these companies.

$APLN $DILD $PJAA
Bear
P H
May 11,2015 12:57:18
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) menguat +0,1% (+3 poin) di level 5184,45 poin pada penutupan perdagangan sesi 1, Senin (11/5). Indeks LQ45 naik +0,15% ke posisi 900. Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) naik +0,27% ke posisi 699 poin. Indeks Kompas 100 naik +0,19% ke level 1.134 poin. IDX30 naik +0,15% ke level 466 poin. Pemodal asing membukukan transaksi net sell (jual bersih) -Rp37 miliar. Transaksi yang tercapai Rp2,136 triliun dengan volume trading sebanyak 5,755 miliar saham. Sektor: Agri +2,07% Mining +1,70% Properti -0,69% Infrastruktur +0,16% Finance +0,04% Trade -0,14% Manufaktur -0,17% Consumer -1,17% Basic ind -0,07% Misc-ind -0,25% Kini sektor agro dan mining menjadi penopang utama laju IHSG pada perdagangan sesi siang awal pekan ini. Saham agri ditunjang oleh naiknya AALI +3,07%. BWPT ++3,75%. DSNG +1,41%. GZCO +1,12%. SIMP +2,34%. SSMS +1,01%. Adapun saham-saham mining yang bergerak naik antara lain: ADRO +5,23%. ANTM +0,63%. ARTI +4,44%. HRUM +2,97%. INCO +1,24%. ITMG +5,51%. Kelompok saham properti bergerak negatif seiring terbitnya Revisi PMK No 90 /PMK.03/2015 tentang pengenaan pajak barang super mewah (PPh 22) untuk properti. Saham-saham properti yang melorot adalah: APLN -1,73%. BSDE -0,28%. CTRA -2,92%. JRPT -7,34%. LPCK -0,90% . LPKR -1,19%. Adapun sektor yang turun paling dalam adalah consumer -1,17%. Koreksi consumer dimotori saham: DVLA -1,11%. KAEF -0,84%. GGRM -0,16%. TSPC -1,67%. ULTJ -2,35%. UNVR -0,06%. Bursa Asia Sentimen kebijan Tiongkok yang memangkas suku bunga menjadi sentimen utama bagi market regional. Bank Sentral Tiongkok (People`s Bank of China (PBOC) menurunkan suku bunga kredit dan deposito bertenor 1 tahun sebesar 25 bps. Indeks Nikkei naik +1,27% (+245,32 poin) ke posisi 19.624,51 poin. Indeks Hang Seng naik +0,50% (+132,29 poin) ke level 27.714,63 poin Indeks Shanghai naik +1,18% (+49,62 poin) ke posisi 4.255,54 poin Indeks Straits Times +0,46% (+15,72 poin) ke level 3.467 poin (pukul 12.00 WIB).
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