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P H
Oct 13,2017 11:45:14

Alam Sutera ($ASRI) – 9M17 Marketing sales below estimate

Alam Sutera booked 9M17 marketing sales at IDR1,261bn (-55% YoY). This achievement only accounted for 34% of our fullyear  target of IDR3,728bn (25% from company’s target of IDR5,000bn) and below  its 4-year historical average of 81%. Presales in 3Q17 was weak as it fell 30%  QoQ & -66% YoY.

Based on our latest discussion, the management has no plans to revise its target  marketing sales. We have also confirmed that it has not recorded the agreed land  sales to China Fortune Land Development (CFLD) (600340 CH, NR) in 3Q17  because there were ~5% of the land yet to be acquired, thus we estimate this will  be booked in 4Q17.

Furthermore, management has yet to close the IDR2trn Office Tower sale with  the negotiation still ongoing amongst three potential buyers. Based on 5-year historical data, we estimate the average achievement in 4Q was IDR755bn,  combined with 9M17 numbers and land sales to CFLD in 4Q17 we estimate  marketing sales by the end of the year will be ~IDR3.02trn excluding the Office  Tower sale. Currently we have a BUY call on the counter with TP of IDR540,  however we will be revisiting our assumptions to better reflect current condition.  (Yualdo Tirtakencana)

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P H
Dec 14,2016 08:06:02

Property (Overweight), ‘Tis The Season To Be Jolly About Mortgages
 
Our ground checks reveal that commercial banks are stopping their promotional mortgage rates. However, as they are aiming for double-digit mortgage growth rates next year, we expect them to re-introduce packages at lower rates as well – since the rates do not yet reflect the latest cut made by BI in Oct. Note that the combination of the relaxation of LTV thresholds and lower mortgage rates following the BI rate cut during 3Q16 resulted in a shifting of consumer preferences back to obtaining financing for properties via a mortgage.
¨ Promo on hold, but... we learnt that some banks are stopping their promotional mortgage packages this month. The current normal mortgage rate has a fixed interest rate of 9.5-10.25% for one year. Bank Central Asia (BCA) ($BBCA) is still offering the lowest mortgage rate with its latest Fix & Cap promotion, ie 7.99% pa fixed interest for the first three years and capped for a further three years at 8.99% pa. This is almost 50bps lower than what was offered in its previous Fix & Cap promotion. However, we believe IND Banks would continue to introduce lower mortgage rates in the future as:

i. Banks are aiming for double-digit growth in their mortgage segments in 2017. BCA and Bank CIMB Niaga ($BNGA) are aiming for 12% and 9-10% mortgage loan growth respectively;

ii. Based on research by rumah123.com, the most important factor in buying properties is the Bank Indonesia (BI) rate. Most buyers still utilise mortgage facilities to purchase properties. This is also reflected in the trend shifting back towards taking a mortgage as a payment method during 3Q16. This is due to a combination of the relaxation of the loan-to-value (LTV) thresholds and lower mortgage rates following BI’s rate cut.

As such, we expect banks to start re-introducing their respective mortgages at lower rates earliest by Jan 2017. Their current mortgage rates do not yet reflect the latest BI rate cut, which was made in October. Note, also, that presales activities in December are more moderate.

¨ Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We keep our OVERWEIGHT rating on the sector, as we expect a better outlook in 2017 as the following factors have already been priced in:

i. All the catalysts that include the tax amnesty;

ii. A potentially lower benchmark interest rate;

iii. The relaxation of the LTV threshold;

iv. The allowance for properties under construction to come under a second mortgage.

The share prices of property counters under our coverage have softened following public protests on 4 Nov that demanded incumbent Jakarta governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, commonly known as Ahok, be arrested for blasphemy. Share prices dropped further after the US election was concluded on 9 Nov. On average, share prices have plunged 9% YTD since 4 Nov. These numbers have recovered by 5% on average from their lowest level during the same period. Nonetheless, the sector is currently valued at a 65% discount to RNAV, or around -1.5SD from its 3-year mean of 56%, which looks compelling. (Lydia Suwandi)

$CTRA $ASRI $BSDE $SMRA $APLN $BKSL

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P H
Dec 01,2016 15:49:10

Salim, Agung Sedayu, and Alam Sutera Groups to engage in toll roads business

Salim Group and Agung Sedayu Group would form a consortium to initiate Kamal – Teluknaga – Balaraja toll road section (48.3km; investment cost: Rp18tn), while Alam Sutera Group plans to initiate Semanan – Balaraja toll road section (31.7km; investment cost: Rp11.3tn). Note that Semanan – Balaraja toll road section would connect with Serpong – Balaraja and six other toll road sections, and Kamal – Teluknaga – Balaraja would connect with Sedyatmo toll road section. (Bisnis Indonesia)

$ASRI

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P H
Oct 29,2016 10:24:11

Economy in brief: Fitch assigns $ASRI’s notes B+ final rating

Rating agency Fitch Ratings has assigned real estate firm Alam Sutera Realty’s (ASRI) US$245 million, 6.625 percent senior unsecured notes due in 2022, a final rating of B+, and a recovery rating of RR4, according to a statement published on Wednesday.

The notes are issued by ASRI’s wholly owned subsidiary Alam Synergy Pte. Ltd. and guaranteed by ASRI and its subsidiaries.

The final rating follows the receipt of documents confirming the information already received and is in line with the expected rating assigned on Oct. 14, 2016. “The notes are rated in line with ASRI’s senior unsecured rating, as they represent unconditional, unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the company,” the statement says. Publicly listed Alam Sutera intends to use the net proceeds of the proposed notes to buy back its existing $225 million, 9 percent senior unsecured notes, which are due in 2019. The new notes will push back its earliest significant debt maturity to 2020, when its $235 million, 6.95 percent senior unsecured notes fall due.

The negative outlook by Fitch on the company’s ‘B+’ long-term issuer default rating reflects the potential challenges it may face in improving contracted sales. The high proportion of commercial property sales and bulk land sales to institutional buyers in its pipeline has increased ASRI’s business-risk profile, but may be counterbalanced by a more conservative capital structure. Fitch may downgrade Alam Sutera’s ratings if the company cannot improve contracted sales to at least Rp 3.5 trillion (US$268.67 million) by the end of 2017 or if the ratio of contracted sales or gross debt remains lower than 0.6 times. — JP

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P H
Aug 29,2016 22:08:56
Indonesia Equities: Pricing In Near Term Positives

Key Points

- +9% gains in MSCI Indonesia since our country upgrade in July - Since our upgrade of Indonesian equities to overweight two months ago in the MIG publication after clarity on its tax amnesty programme emerged, sentiment has further improved following the appointment of well respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. The Indonesian equity market has seen strong equity inflows in 3Q16 lifting the index up ~9% (local currency terms, +8.2% in USD), which has outpaced world equities’ gains (+5.2%) for the same period and supported our call.

- Year to date’s gains of +18.6% has also more than recouped 2015’s losses of -12%, which has supported the turnaround highlighted in our January 2016’s South East Asia Equity Strategy report. The equity market rally year to date has been supported by a benign environment of lower interest rates, stable IDR currency vs the USD, under-owned positions in global portfolios and improving confidence in Indonesia’s recovery story. Estimated equity inflows into Indonesia so far for 3Q has exceeded the total inflows for 1H16, driving the market to new highs. Since mid May this year, it is estimated that net equity inflows reached $1.7bln, vs $1.6bln net outflows over the whole of 2015 (source: JPM estimates).


- Near term positives post amnesty and cabinet reshuffle look priced in, valuations are now close to 10 year high – At 16x PER, Indonesian equities is now trading close to +2 standard deviations to its 10 year historical average multiple and at its highest valuation level since 2007, which we believe has priced in much of the near term positives. Although near term liquidity is likely to remain supportive given benign expectations on interest rates, we caution that valuations have caught up and believe it is prudent to start taking some money off the table. On domestic updates, while the recently released 2017 budget is credible, it is unlikely to lead to further corporate earnings upgrades given a moderate government spending target of 6% (planned fiscal deficit for 2017 is 2.4% of GDP, flat/lower than 2016E). Towards the end of September and December which marks the first and second phases of the tax amnesty programme’s staggered tax rates for declared wealth, investor sentiment may also be influenced by expectations over the tax collections.


- Muted start to the 9-month tax amnesty programme, although still early days - As of 23rd August 2016, the asset declaration in the Tax Amnesty Program has reached Rp51.7tn, consisting of 85% onshore/15% offshore assets (12% overseas assets declared, 3% overseas net assets repatriated), while asset repatriation has reached Rp1.6 tn. Momentum of onshore assets declared in first half of August has picked up, with the tax office reporting about Rp11.5tn worth of onshore assets declared (>4x July’s). About three-quarters of the assets declared were from private individuals, and the balance private entities, which we view as supportive of property sector’s recovery given interest rates are expected to remain low while the Ministry of Finance has allowed repatriated funds to be invested in real assets (such as property and gold).


- Looking ahead, earnings upgrades need to pick up momentum for the rally to have more legs - Earnings wise, the recent 2Q results season was mixed with single digit corporate top line growth from a year ago. Concerns on banks remain dragged by asset quality issues while commodity related earnings have been moderate. Following the latest 2Q earnings season (where consensus earnings were trimmed -2% lower for FY16E and FY17E), FY16E and FY17E earnings are now forecast to grow +7% and +14% respectively (higher than Asia ex Japan equities’ 2.2% FY16E and 11% for FY17E respectively) which we believe is priced in current valuations.

Time to lock in some profits – Switch out of names which have rallied and offer no upside to target prices
- Sectors we are cautious on are: Commodity related plays which have rallied and priced in recovery expectations (coal – Bukit Asam, ITMG, palm oil – Astra Agro, London Sumatra), Banks (loans growth will be moderate while we expect asset quality concerns to remain a near term overhang) and Utilities (in particular, Perusahaan Gas – where we think profitability will remain pressured by regulatory efforts to lower gas prices).

Preferred Picks/Switch Ideas

- Preferred Sectors we would accumulate new positions are: Property (Bumi Serpong – Western Jakarta play, large landbank catering to middle income buyers), Telecommunications (Telekomunikasi Indonesia – improving smartphone penetration and data usage supported by a young population), Consumer (Indofood and Media Nusantara, which benefit from an improving domestic economy in 2H16) and Infrastructure (Jasa Marga – No. 1 toll road operator, long term beneficiary of infrastructure development in Indonesia).


- Risks to the current rally include weaker than expected global economy, faster than expected Federal Reserve interest rate hikes which may result in global liquidity volatility and disappointments in the domestic recovery and infrastructure spending pace (continues to be a focus in the 2017 budget, with 9% yoy expected growth).


$PTBA $KKGI $HRUM $ITMG $AALI $LSIP $SGRO $SMAR $PGAS $BBCA $BBRI $BMRI $BBNI $BSDE $ASRI $LPCK $LPKR $CTRA $TLKM $INDF $ICBP $AISA $MNCN $JSMR

Bull
P H
Jul 27,2016 08:50:23
EARNINGS CALENDAR (Half Year 2016 - Estimated)

JULY 2016

Jul 25, 2016 :
$BBTN (Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 26, 2016
$BDMN (Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT)
$BMRI (Persero) Tbk PT Earnings Release - 4:00PM GMT+7

Jul 27, 2016
$AALI (Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT)
$HMSP (Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT)
$LPPF (Matahari Department Store Tbk PT)
$MPPA (Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT)
$PTBA (Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 28, 2016
$ASII (Astra International Tbk PT)
$BEST (Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk PT)
$BJBR (PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk)
$DOID (Bloomberg)
$NCO (Vale Indonesia Tbk PT)
$JPFA (Bloomberg)
$PSAB (Bloomberg)
$SSMS (Bloomberg)
$SMGR (Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$UNTR (United Tractors Tbk PT)
$UNVR (Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT)

Jul 29, 2016
$ASRI (Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT)
$ADHI (Bloomberg)
$BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk PT)
$BNGA (Bloomberg)
$BNLI (Bloomberg)
$BNII (Bloomberg)
$BKSL (Bloomberg)
$BHIT (Bloomberg)
$BISI (Bloomberg)
$CPIN (Bloomberg)
$CTRA (Ciputra Development Tbk PT)
$CTRP (Bloomberg)
$ELSA (Bloomberg)
$GIAA (Bloomberg)
$GJTL (Bloomberg)
$GGRM (Gudang Garam Tbk PT)
$NKP (Bloomberg)
$INTP (Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT)
$INDF (Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$ICBP (Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$INDY (Bloomberg)
$KARW (Bloomberg)
$KAEF (Bloomberg)
$KIJA (Bloomberg)
$KLBF (Kalbe Farma Tbk PT)
$KRAS (Bloomberg)
$LPKR (Lippo Karawaci Tbk PT)
$LSIP (Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk PT)
$MAPI (Bloomberg)
$PWON (Bloomberg)
$PNBN, $PNLF, $PNIN (Bloomberg)
$PTPP (Bloomberg)
$RALS (Bloomberg)
$SMRA (Bloomberg)
$TBLA (Bloomberg)
$TLKM (Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$TOTL (Bloomberg)
$WSKT (Bloomberg)

AUGUST 2016
Aug 1, 2016
$HRUM (Harum Energy Tbk PT)
$SSIA (Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT)

Aug 10, 2016
$ITMG (Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk PT)

Aug 12, 2016
$EXCL (XL Axiata Tbk PT)

Aug 29, 2016
$ADRO (Adaro Energy Tbk PT)
$ANTM (Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk PT)
$BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$ISAT (Indosat Tbk PT)
$PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

SEPTEMBER

Sep 13, 2016
$SMCB (Holcim Indonesia)

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P H
Jul 25,2016 09:09:22
ASRI : PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk ($ASRI) berhasil mengantongi marketing sales atau pra penjualan sebesar Rp 966 miliar sepanjang semester I 2016. Jumlah tersebut baru setara 19,3% dari total target yang ditetapkan perusahaan tahun ini yakni Rp 5 triliun. (KONTAN)


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P H
Jun 22,2016 22:07:19
Penandatanganan Perjanjian Kerjasama Proyek Suvarna Sutera (Pasar Kemis)
PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (“$ASRI”) telah menandatangani Nota Kesepahaman (“MoU”) dengan
China Fortune Land Development Co., Ltd. (“CFLD”) pada 28 Desember 2015 dengan tujuan
untuk bersama–sama mengembangkan area di Pasar Kemis, Tangerang, Banten (“Lokasi
Kerjasama”). Kami telah mengambil langkah lebih jauh dengan menandatangani Perjanjian
Definitif (“Perjanjian”) pada 22 Juni 2016 dengan anak Perusahaan CFLD
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P H
May 02,2016 14:46:16
Alam Sutera: Inline 1Q16 result (ASRI; Rp396; Neutral; TP:Rp350)

- ASRI – In-line 1Q16 result. ASRI booked NPAT of Rp529bn, up by 89% YoY, mainly driven by the reversal of forex loss in 1Q15. In 1Q16, the company book forex gain of Rp182bn instead of forex loss of Rp251bn. The company’s core profit is at Rp345bn, which is 30% of ours and 35% of consensus. On operating profit level, the company generates Rp460bn (- 30% YoY), 27% of ours and 28% of consensus. We expect the company’s net profit to be at Rp1.1tn for this year, coming from the realization of its backlog in Pasar Kemis. However we forecast sharp decline on NPAT for FY17F (-59% YoY) due to weak marketing sales last year (-56% YoY to Rp1.9tn in FY15).

- Gearing remains alarmingly high. The company turned into negative cash outflow of Rp225bn. The company is standing at net gearing of 97% and net debt of Rp6.8tn. With weak marketing sales, we think it is difficult for the company to improve its net debt in the coming quarters.

- Remain cautious. We remain cautious on ASRI due to its high net gearing. We think that it is tough for the company to generate marketing sales as most companies offer attractive in-house financing. With ASRI’s alarmingly high gearing, the company could not provide working capital to its customers. We would only turn positive if the company realizes its planned JV with China Land Fortune Development. We maintain our Neutral stance for ASRI with PT of Rp350.

$ASRI

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P H
Apr 20,2016 08:50:54
Akhirnya, Pemerintah Terbitkan Aturan Kepemilikan Hunian untuk Orang Asing http://kom.ps/AFuuNb

Berikut daftar harga minimal pembelian rumah tinggal oleh orang asing:

DKI Jakarta Rp 10 miliar
Banten Rp 5 miliar
Jawa Barat Rp 5 miliar
Jawa Tengah Rp 3 miliar
Yogyakarta Rp 3 miliar
Jawa Timur Rp 5 miliar
Bali Rp 3 miliar
Nusa Tenggara Barat Rp 2 miliar
Sumatera Utara Rp 2 miliar
Kalimantan Timur Rp 2 miliar
Sulawesi Selatan Rp 2 miliar
Daerah lainnya Rp 1 miliar

Berikut daftar harga minimal pembelian satuan rumah susun (apartemen) oleh orang asing:

DKI Jakarta Rp 5 miliar
Banten Rp 1 miliar
Jawa Barat Rp 1 miliar
Jawa Tengah
Yogyakarta Rp 1 miliar
Jawa Timur Rp 1,5 miliar
Bali Rp 2 miliar
Nusa Tenggara Barat Rp 1 miliar
Sumatera Utara Rp 1 miliar
Kalimantan Timur Rp 1 miliar
Sulawesi Selatan Rp 1 miliar
Daerah lain Rp 750 juta

Akhirnya, Pemerintah Terbitkan Aturan Kepemilikan Hunian untuk Orang Asing

Kementerian Agraria dan Tata Ruang/Badan Pertanahan Nasional (ATR/BPN) akhirnya mengeluarkan aturan kepemilikan hunian bagi orang asing.

Aturan tersebut tertuang dalam Peraturan Menteri ATR/Kepala BPN Nomor 13 Tahun 2016 tentang tata cara pemberian, pelepasan, atau pengalihan hak atas pemilikan rumah tempat tinggal atau hunian oleh orang asing yang berkedudukan di Indonesia.

"Sudah saya tanda tangani dan ini menjadi tindak lanjut dari Peraturan Pemerintah Nomor 103 Tahun 2015," ujar Menteri ATR/BPN Ferry Mursyidan Baldan di Batam, Kamis (14/4/2016).

Aturan kepemilikan hunian bagi orang asing dikeluarkan untuk mendorong iklim investasi di Indonesia. Menurut Ferry, selama ini investor asing membutuhkan fasilitas perumahan untuk mendukung bisnis mereka di Indonesia.

"Ini bagian kemudahan perizinan. Kita berikan percepatan, ketepatan, dan kepastian bagi investor," katanya.

Kepemilikan dapat berupa rumah tunggal ataupun rumah susun dan hanya diberikan kepada orang asing yang memiliki izin tinggal di Indonesia.

Selain itu, pembelian hanya berlaku untuk pembelian baru langsung dari pengembang atau pemilik.

$BSDE $ASRI $CTRP $CTRA $CTRS $PWON $APLN $LPCK $LPKR
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P H
Apr 08,2016 09:09:22
Property: Demand is still there based on rumah123.com survey
Rumah123.com have performed a survey to 12.000 respondents in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong for their
appetite in Indonesia’s property market. They found that demand for property is still high, with the majority of respondents
thinking that now is the right time to buy. According to the survey, landed house is the most popular type of property, while
land follows it in second place. The most favorite pricing range is Rp300mn to Rp1bn; with terms of payment still focus on
KPR. Rumah123.com predicts that property sales will increase by 5%-10% in FY16.

$BSDE $ASRI $MDLN $BKSL $CTRA
Bull
P H
Apr 01,2016 10:10:21
Alam Sutera Realty Books Lower Profits Last Year

Profits at the property company Alam Sutera Realty ($ASRI) dropped 42 percent last year due to low sales, the company revealed in its financial report on Thursday (31/03).

Alam Sutera Realty's profits dropped to Rp 684 billion ($51 million) in 2015 from Rp 1.18 trillion a year earlier.

The company's sales and other income from services dropped 23 percent to Rp 2.8 trillion last year, down from Rp 3.6 trillion a year earlier. Costs also dropped to Rp 2.1 trillion, down 16 percent from Rp 2.5 trillion a year earlier.

The listed property developer forecasts its marketing sales to rise 35 percent this year to Rp 5.8 trillion on the back of the new office and apartment projects.

Still, according to ratings agency Standard & Poor's, the outlook for real estate developers is not too bright this year. The flat property sales will remain this year for most developers.

Another property developer Summarecon Agung ($SMRA) also reported a decline in its profits last year on the back of higher expenses and low sales.
Bear
P H
Feb 16,2016 15:56:28
Watch List - BUY SIGNAL

Bull
P H
Feb 15,2016 09:03:46
Visit to property expo

First property expo in 2016 was encouraging
Over the weekend, we visited a property expo in Jakarta, organized by
Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ). During the event, BTN offered a
promotional mortgage rate of 6.6% fixed for one year. We found that a
large number of visitors to the expo showed enthusiasm regarding the
event. Besides BTN, we note that other big banks are also starting to
lower their rates to single digits. We see this trend as positive for
property sector especially for BSDE and CTRA.

Interesting mortgage rate promotion by BTN
As the organizer of the expo, Bank Tabungan Negara ($BBTN) specializes
in the mortgage segment and is the anchor bank for the Government
subsidized mortgage program. As of FY15, BTN had a market share of
~30% in mortgage lending. To boost its mortgage portfolio by ~20% in
FY16, during the expo, BTN offered a promotional non-subsidized
mortgage rate of 6.6% fixed for one year. For subsidized mortgages, BTN
offered a flat 5.0% for 20 years and LTV of 99%.

Targeting the low-middle segment
There were 209 developers participating in the event offering about 660
projects mainly in the Greater Jakarta area and several other cities in
Indonesia. Listed developers that participated in the expo were $CTRA,
$ASRI, $PPRO and $MTLA. Based on our visit to most of the exhibition
booths, we note that most of the properties offered were mainly
targeting the low-middle market segment with price tags starting from
IDR100m/unit (USD7,500). Further, many private developers offered low
cost housing that can be eligible to be financed by subsidized mortgage.

Other banks also starting to offer lower rates
Besides BTN, we also note that other big banks, such as BCA, Bank
Mandiri, BNI, BRI and CIMB Niaga offered promotional mortgage rates
below 10% starting in Feb’15. We view this positively for the property
sector, especially for $BSDE and $CTRA as most of their buyers use
mortgages for their purchases.

Bull
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise.
ASRI
402.00 4.00 (0.99%)
Alam Sutera Realty Tbk.
Last Update 02:54:10