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P H
Dec 14,2016 08:17:33

$BDMNBank Danamon eyes 1m of credit card users in 2017. As of now, the bank’s credit card users reached 850k people. Regarding Central Bank’s (BI) plan to lower credit card interest rate to 2.25%/month (vs currently 2.95%/month), the bank stated that it will conduct cost cutting to implement the regulation. One of the company’s efforts is by launching an application which allows customers to conduct information self-check of their credit cards. Hence, the company can reduce the number of employees in its call centre. As of Sep2016, national credit card transaction volume grew 6.7% YoY to 24.74 transaction. However, nominal wise, value still declined (-)2.15% YoY to Rp22.38tn.

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P H
Nov 29,2016 10:06:57

Bank Danamon ($BDMN) partners with a telecommunication company
BDMN will partner up with a telecommunication company to develop its digital banking services. Djamin Nainggolan Senior
Executive Vice President of BDMN states that the telecommunication company is one of the biggest players in Indonesia,
however they are not able to disclose the name of the company yet. BDMN has signed a MoU with the telecommunication
company. (Bisnis Indonesia)

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P H
Nov 08,2016 18:32:53

Banking: 9M16 Results - On the Road to Recovery?

- Banks' average profit growth improved to 4% y-y in 9M16 from +1% y-y in 6M16, but loan and deposit growth remained weak at +9% y-y and +6% y-y respectively. NIM improved to 6.7% while NPL reached 3.0% with signs of peak. Trading at 1.6x P/BV 2017, we keep our Neutral sector call with $BBRI, $BBTN and $BNGA as top picks.

- Average net profit growth of 4% y-y in 9M16. The 12 banks under our result universe show improving profit growth from the previous quarter given the high losses incurred by $BNLI in 1Q and 2Q16. The results were in line with expectations, accounting 73% of the consensus’ full year targets. $BMRI, $BBTN, and $BJBR posted below expectations, while $PNBN, $BJTM and $BNGA above. $BNLI continued to record losses in 9M16 on its rising NPL level. At the PPOP level, average growth was a decent 18% y-y as banks had a better management on operating costs.

- Loan growth slowed down to 9% y-y. The industry indicates +6.4% y-y loan growth in September while some of the banks in our universe managed to record much higher loan growth; BBNI (+21% y-y) is on corporate/infrastructure loans, BBRI (+16% y-y) on corporate and micro loans, while $BBTN (+17% y-y) on housing loans. Over the past one year, more loans have been channeled into corporate (especially state companies) and micro segments, at the expense of SME commercial and consumer loan segments. Of the 12 banks, three ($BDMN, $BNGA and $BNLI) still posted negative y-y growth.

- Deposit growth also weakened to 6% y-y. Total deposit still grew at +8% y-y in June, while the 5% economic growth is not enough to generate better deposit growth. Five banks ($BDMN, $BJBR, $BJTM, $BNGA and $BNLI) still recorded negative y-y deposit growth with two of them ($BDMN and $BNLI) continued to see negative ytd growth. CASA deposits continued to gain more than time deposits, which see declining rates.

- NIM still improved to 6.7% in 9M16. In contrast to our earlier expectation, banks recorded better margin in 3Q16 as they had not lower the lending rates as much as deposits rates. While this is true in the declining rate environment, banks are also pending further reduction in view of rising need for provisioning. Average NIM reached 6.9% in 3Q16 from 6.7% in 2Q16, but this level is expected to decline in the coming quarter on pressure to reach single digit lending rates.

- NPL reaching the new peak of 3.0%. Additional problem loans are growing at a slower pace, with some banks claiming to have seen peak NPL in August. Banks like $BMRI and $BBCA still expect peak NPL in 4Q16 and continued charging high provisioning.

- Classified loans at 11.3%. Average classified loans (NPL, SML, and performing restructured loans) were at 11.2% in June and 10.9% in March 2016. This shows less pressure on asset quality while coverage/classified loans ratio improved to average 32% from 28% a year ago.

- Operating costs were well managed. The average cost/income ratio went down to 45% in 3Q16 from 48% in 2016 and 47% in 3Q15. Of the banks, $PNBN, $BNGA, and $BDMN showed the best cost/income ratio improvement.

- Maintain Neutral. We will wait for stronger support for improving NPL and hence keep our Neutral call for the stock, which trades at 1.6x P/BV 2017. Our top picks are $BBRI, $BBTN and $BNGA.

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P H
Jul 27,2016 08:50:23
EARNINGS CALENDAR (Half Year 2016 - Estimated)

JULY 2016

Jul 25, 2016 :
$BBTN (Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 26, 2016
$BDMN (Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT)
$BMRI (Persero) Tbk PT Earnings Release - 4:00PM GMT+7

Jul 27, 2016
$AALI (Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT)
$HMSP (Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT)
$LPPF (Matahari Department Store Tbk PT)
$MPPA (Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT)
$PTBA (Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 28, 2016
$ASII (Astra International Tbk PT)
$BEST (Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk PT)
$BJBR (PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk)
$DOID (Bloomberg)
$NCO (Vale Indonesia Tbk PT)
$JPFA (Bloomberg)
$PSAB (Bloomberg)
$SSMS (Bloomberg)
$SMGR (Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$UNTR (United Tractors Tbk PT)
$UNVR (Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT)

Jul 29, 2016
$ASRI (Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT)
$ADHI (Bloomberg)
$BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk PT)
$BNGA (Bloomberg)
$BNLI (Bloomberg)
$BNII (Bloomberg)
$BKSL (Bloomberg)
$BHIT (Bloomberg)
$BISI (Bloomberg)
$CPIN (Bloomberg)
$CTRA (Ciputra Development Tbk PT)
$CTRP (Bloomberg)
$ELSA (Bloomberg)
$GIAA (Bloomberg)
$GJTL (Bloomberg)
$GGRM (Gudang Garam Tbk PT)
$NKP (Bloomberg)
$INTP (Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT)
$INDF (Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$ICBP (Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$INDY (Bloomberg)
$KARW (Bloomberg)
$KAEF (Bloomberg)
$KIJA (Bloomberg)
$KLBF (Kalbe Farma Tbk PT)
$KRAS (Bloomberg)
$LPKR (Lippo Karawaci Tbk PT)
$LSIP (Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk PT)
$MAPI (Bloomberg)
$PWON (Bloomberg)
$PNBN, $PNLF, $PNIN (Bloomberg)
$PTPP (Bloomberg)
$RALS (Bloomberg)
$SMRA (Bloomberg)
$TBLA (Bloomberg)
$TLKM (Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$TOTL (Bloomberg)
$WSKT (Bloomberg)

AUGUST 2016
Aug 1, 2016
$HRUM (Harum Energy Tbk PT)
$SSIA (Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT)

Aug 10, 2016
$ITMG (Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk PT)

Aug 12, 2016
$EXCL (XL Axiata Tbk PT)

Aug 29, 2016
$ADRO (Adaro Energy Tbk PT)
$ANTM (Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk PT)
$BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$ISAT (Indosat Tbk PT)
$PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

SEPTEMBER

Sep 13, 2016
$SMCB (Holcim Indonesia)

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P H
Apr 20,2016 09:38:58
Banks - Bumpy But Still Promising
 
We re-initiate coverage on Indonesia banks with an OVERWEIGHT. Higher government spending should translate into a 5.1% GDP growth pick-up and stronger loan growth of 14.3%. We forecast for earnings to grow a stronger 8.7% as credit costs stabilise at 161bps. Our Top Picks are BBCA (strong asset quality and least vulnerable to regulatory risks) and BBTN, as it would benefit most from the Government’s subsidised mortgage scheme.

¨ Reasonable valuations on higher GDP growth. According to our economists, 2016 would be a better year, supported by higher government spending in 2M16 to IDR5.4trn (+306% YoY) and a GDP growth pick-up to 5.1%. Yet with such potential, Indonesian banks under our coverage are trading at current P/BV multiple of 2.2x 2016F P/BV vs a historical mean of 2.9x and -2SD of 2.1x. We believe the multiple de-rating reflects the slide in ROAE to 17.6% for 2016F from c.25% in 2010 as loan growth slowed and credit costs spiked.

¨ Two sides of the knife. The Financial Services Authority (OJK) has introduced changes/revised guidelines to spur banks to lend more, but its renewed lower lending rates push has unnerved investors. We believe an immediate lending rate cuts to single digits directive is unlikely, as this has a detrimental impact on earnings. We expect it to take indirect measures that provide banks room to lower lending rates. March’s 125bps cut in maximum time deposit rates was the first move in this direction. We believe state-owned enterprise (SOE) banks would be most impacted, as the OJK would expect them to take the lead.

¨ Lower margins outlook. Lower caps for time deposit (TD) rates would mitigate the policy rate cuts (75bps YTD and another 25bps expected by end-2016), resulting in a moderate 7-12bps decline in net interest margins (NIMs). We expect Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) and Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN) to be most affected, while Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) are expected to see some uptick in NIMs.

¨ Smoother assets quality ride. Stronger economic growth and lower interest rates, we believe, would ease pressure on asset quality in 2016. We expect non-performing loans (NPLs) to trend higher in 1H16 and peak in 2Q16. Among banks under our coverage, we believe Bank Mandiri (given its loan portfolio size) would need a longer time to improve asset quality. We expect sector gross NPL ratio to edge down to 2% by Dec 2016 (Dec 2015: 2.1%) with stable 161bps credit costs and improvements in loan loss coverage to 155.2% by end-2016.

¨ Wholesale funding as additional liquidity source. As the system loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) touched 90.9% in January, banks are likely to tap the wholesale market for funding, given more affordable benchmark rates and longer maturity profiles. Negotiable certificates of deposits, bonds and medium-term notes are the preferred wholesale instruments of the three big SOE banks.

¨ Bank Central Asia (BBCA) and BBTN are our Top Picks. Given regulatory risks and asset quality concerns, BBCA is our Top Pick for big-cap banks. Its premium valuation (3.0x 2016F P/BV vs peers’ 1.8x average) is justified as its NIMs are least vulnerable to government intervention risks while assets quality is superior vis-à-vis peers. BBTN is our small-cap Top Pick as we anticipate ROAE expansion and asset quality improvements in the next two years.

$BBCA $BMRI $BBRI $BBNI $BBTN $BTPN $PNBN $BDMN $BNGA
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P H
Apr 02,2016 11:47:03
Indonesia Banks: 4Q15 Results Round-Up

Earnings growth: our 10 banks +8.1% y-y; industry: -1.5% y-y
All 10 banks under our coverage have reported 4Q15 net earnings, booking 8.1% y-y growth, vis-à-vis the industry average of a 1.5% y-y decline. On a quarterly basis, the 10 banks reported 3.3% q-q growth while the industry average contracted by 3.3% q-q, mainly due to the limited advantages of a lower blended cost of funding. The industry NIM reached 5.4% (+10bps q-q) in 4Q15 compared to 30bps higher q-q for our 10 listed banks. Only 4 of the 10 banks displayed lower NIMs: $BBRI (-20bps q-q), $BBNI (-20bps), $BJTM (-60bps) and $BBKP (-30bps). The better-than-expected 4Q15 earnings were supported by lower provisioning (-9.4% q-q) on improved loan quality, as most banks restructured their debt, benefiting from the OJK relaxation policy in pursuing NPLs based on debtor abilities to serve their loans while ignoring financial stability and the industry outlook.

Loan growth: 10.4% y-y vs 11.4% y-y on lower GDP
Sector 4Q15 loan growth was 2.5% q-q, bringing full-year 2015 loan growth to 10.4%, vis-à-vis 11.4% y-y growth in 2014, in line with the deceleration in GDP growth to 4.8% in 2015 from 5.0% in 2014. Our 10 listed banks’ loan growth of 12.6% was above the industry average, except for $BDMN and $BJTM. $BBTN posted the highest growth, at nearly 20% y-y, benefiting from continued strong demand from the low-end market segment, including government subsidized mortgages. Corporate loans were the main contributor, while consumer loans (9.1% y-y) moved at a slower pace due to slow mortgage demand. This brought the proportion of consumer loans to total loans to 27.1% (-30bps y-y). However, deposits contracted 1.1% q-q, bringing full-year 2015 growth to only 7.3% y-y. As a result, LDR increased to 92.5% from 89.9% a year earlier.

Seeking normalization under new low-lending rate regime
In 2016, we assume loan growth of 12.7% y-y on increased investment in infra-related projects, with the government having recently encouraged banks to set lending rates at single-digit levels. This, however, may create challenges given Indonesia’s geography, high inflation, limited fee-based income and low employee productivity. On monetary policy, lower lending rates may only be achieved once the benchmark rate reaches 6.25% (currently: 6.75%, or -125bps y-y), setting the ceiling on SOE deposit rates and eliminating current deposit rate spreads from 200bps and 225bps for bank categories IV and III, respectively, to 75bps and 100bps. On macroprudential policy, OJK should lower both the minimum primary (currently: 6.50% from 8.00% previously) and secondary (currently: 4.00%) reserve requirements, increasing LFR and lowering RWA. We believe this move may lower bank NIMs by 40-50bps (vs our previous estimate of 30-40bps) for the 10 banks we cover, but the overall industry may be worst off (exhibit 31). Based on this, combined with continued high provisioning, we forecast overall 2016 net earnings growth of around 6.3% y-y, helped by improved operating efficiencies and increased fee-based income.
Bull
P H
Mar 07,2016 09:05:12
Bank Danamon ($BDMN): FY15 net profit in line, ex-restructuring costs

• 4Q/FY15 earnings in line, ex-restructuring costs

• Three-year strategic direction outlined and initiated

• Maintain BUY; Rp4,200 TP
Bull
P H
Feb 22,2016 15:43:46
Indonesian Banks

Rate cut and its repercussions
• Rate cuts announced; accommodative monetary policy aimed at boosting loan growth
• Short-term positive but repercussions of further regulatory action may be negative to banks
• Keeping our cautious stance; $BBCA and $BDMN remain our picks

What’s New
Rate cut announced. BI announced a reference rate (BI rate) cut of 25bps to 7.0%. In addition, BI also lowered the Rupiah reserve requirement by 100bps to 6.5% (effective March 2016). In line with this, deposit and lending facility rates were cut by 25bps to 5% and 7.5% respectively.

Impact and view:
Short-term positive… While this is positive in the short term for the banks, as banks tend to be able to reprice deposits faster than loans, there would be some ups deposits faster than loans ide potential to NIM, particularly for banks with a deposit mix skewed towards a higher time deposit composition (eg. $BDMN, $BBTN, $BTPN). The lower rates would also be positive to multi-finance companies from a funding cost perspective.

…but we are still keeping our cautious stance on the Indonesian banks because:

1) Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality are not over yet although our base case assumes stability in 2H16

2) OJK and BI have formed an ad hoc team to push down lending rates to below 10% below 10% and the team is expected to meet this task by end 2016. Among the possible approaches to this is a new OJK regulation to cap NIM at 4% with the aim to improve efficiency and competitiveness.

Should the NIM cap regulation be implemented this will be negative to banks as this would limit to a large extent, topline growth. Even if loan growth were to be boosted to 14% as intended by BI/OJK, it would be insufficient to maintain growth momentum for the net interest income line.

There have been noises in the past to lower lending rates for loans and also to impose a cap on NIM but none of these have so far materialised.

There were however two instances which the goverment had intervened to force down loan yields:
1) the KUR loan yield cap to 19% (2016: 9% chargeable rate to borrowers + government interest subsidy of 10%) - this affected $BBRI
2) lower loan yield for subsidised mortgage to 5% (from 7.5% previously) despite being partially subsidised by the Subsidized Mortgage Liquidity Facility Scheme/Fasilitas Likuiditas Pembiayaan Perumahan (FLPP) scheme - this affected $BBTN

Stock picks:
As we retain our cautious stance on the sector, our top picks remain $BBCA and $BDMN. Our pick on $BBCA lies on its defensiveness and strong financial indicators especially with respect to asset quality. $BDMN remains our pick for a turnaround story. Key risk to $BDMN however would be its inability to retain its high NIM (>8%) should the NIM cap be strictly implemented. This would mean $BDMN would have to significantly ramp up its strategy to lower funding costs quicker than planned.

Should the NIM cap be implemented, it would be negative to the SOE banks SOE banks SOE banks namely, $BMRI, $BBNI and $BBRI, as we are of the view that the government may impose these punitive recommendations on them before rolling it out to the entire sector.
Bull
P H
Feb 22,2016 15:43:46
Indonesian Banks

Rate cut and its repercussions
• Rate cuts announced; accommodative monetary policy aimed at boosting loan growth
• Short-term positive but repercussions of further regulatory action may be negative to banks
• Keeping our cautious stance; $BBCA and $BDMN remain our picks

What’s New
Rate cut announced. BI announced a reference rate (BI rate) cut of 25bps to 7.0%. In addition, BI also lowered the Rupiah reserve requirement by 100bps to 6.5% (effective March 2016). In line with this, deposit and lending facility rates were cut by 25bps to 5% and 7.5% respectively.

Impact and view:
Short-term positive… While this is positive in the short term for the banks, as banks tend to be able to reprice deposits faster than loans, there would be some ups deposits faster than loans ide potential to NIM, particularly for banks with a deposit mix skewed towards a higher time deposit composition (eg. $BDMN, $BBTN, $BTPN). The lower rates would also be positive to multi-finance companies from a funding cost perspective.

…but we are still keeping our cautious stance on the Indonesian banks because:

1) Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality are not over yet although our base case assumes stability in 2H16

2) OJK and BI have formed an ad hoc team to push down lending rates to below 10% below 10% and the team is expected to meet this task by end 2016. Among the possible approaches to this is a new OJK regulation to cap NIM at 4% with the aim to improve efficiency and competitiveness.

Should the NIM cap regulation be implemented this will be negative to banks as this would limit to a large extent, topline growth. Even if loan growth were to be boosted to 14% as intended by BI/OJK, it would be insufficient to maintain growth momentum for the net interest income line.

There have been noises in the past to lower lending rates for loans and also to impose a cap on NIM but none of these have so far materialised.

There were however two instances which the goverment had intervened to force down loan yields:
1) the KUR loan yield cap to 19% (2016: 9% chargeable rate to borrowers + government interest subsidy of 10%) - this affected $BBRI
2) lower loan yield for subsidised mortgage to 5% (from 7.5% previously) despite being partially subsidised by the Subsidized Mortgage Liquidity Facility Scheme/Fasilitas Likuiditas Pembiayaan Perumahan (FLPP) scheme - this affected $BBTN

Stock picks:
As we retain our cautious stance on the sector, our top picks remain $BBCA and $BDMN. Our pick on $BBCA lies on its defensiveness and strong financial indicators especially with respect to asset quality. $BDMN remains our pick for a turnaround story. Key risk to $BDMN however would be its inability to retain its high NIM (>8%) should the NIM cap be strictly implemented. This would mean $BDMN would have to significantly ramp up its strategy to lower funding costs quicker than planned.

Should the NIM cap be implemented, it would be negative to the SOE banks SOE banks SOE banks namely, $BMRI, $BBNI and $BBRI, as we are of the view that the government may impose these punitive recommendations on them before rolling it out to the entire sector.
Bull
P H
Feb 22,2016 15:43:46
Indonesian Banks

Rate cut and its repercussions
• Rate cuts announced; accommodative monetary policy aimed at boosting loan growth
• Short-term positive but repercussions of further regulatory action may be negative to banks
• Keeping our cautious stance; $BBCA and $BDMN remain our picks

What’s New
Rate cut announced. BI announced a reference rate (BI rate) cut of 25bps to 7.0%. In addition, BI also lowered the Rupiah reserve requirement by 100bps to 6.5% (effective March 2016). In line with this, deposit and lending facility rates were cut by 25bps to 5% and 7.5% respectively.

Impact and view:
Short-term positive… While this is positive in the short term for the banks, as banks tend to be able to reprice deposits faster than loans, there would be some ups deposits faster than loans ide potential to NIM, particularly for banks with a deposit mix skewed towards a higher time deposit composition (eg. $BDMN, $BBTN, $BTPN). The lower rates would also be positive to multi-finance companies from a funding cost perspective.

…but we are still keeping our cautious stance on the Indonesian banks because:

1) Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality are not over yet although our base case assumes stability in 2H16

2) OJK and BI have formed an ad hoc team to push down lending rates to below 10% below 10% and the team is expected to meet this task by end 2016. Among the possible approaches to this is a new OJK regulation to cap NIM at 4% with the aim to improve efficiency and competitiveness.

Should the NIM cap regulation be implemented this will be negative to banks as this would limit to a large extent, topline growth. Even if loan growth were to be boosted to 14% as intended by BI/OJK, it would be insufficient to maintain growth momentum for the net interest income line.

There have been noises in the past to lower lending rates for loans and also to impose a cap on NIM but none of these have so far materialised.

There were however two instances which the goverment had intervened to force down loan yields:
1) the KUR loan yield cap to 19% (2016: 9% chargeable rate to borrowers + government interest subsidy of 10%) - this affected $BBRI
2) lower loan yield for subsidised mortgage to 5% (from 7.5% previously) despite being partially subsidised by the Subsidized Mortgage Liquidity Facility Scheme/Fasilitas Likuiditas Pembiayaan Perumahan (FLPP) scheme - this affected $BBTN

Stock picks:
As we retain our cautious stance on the sector, our top picks remain $BBCA and $BDMN. Our pick on $BBCA lies on its defensiveness and strong financial indicators especially with respect to asset quality. $BDMN remains our pick for a turnaround story. Key risk to $BDMN however would be its inability to retain its high NIM (>8%) should the NIM cap be strictly implemented. This would mean $BDMN would have to significantly ramp up its strategy to lower funding costs quicker than planned.

Should the NIM cap be implemented, it would be negative to the SOE banks SOE banks SOE banks namely, $BMRI, $BBNI and $BBRI, as we are of the view that the government may impose these punitive recommendations on them before rolling it out to the entire sector.
Bull
P H
Feb 22,2016 15:43:45
Indonesian Banks

Rate cut and its repercussions
• Rate cuts announced; accommodative monetary policy aimed at boosting loan growth
• Short-term positive but repercussions of further regulatory action may be negative to banks
• Keeping our cautious stance; $BBCA and $BDMN remain our picks

What’s New
Rate cut announced. BI announced a reference rate (BI rate) cut of 25bps to 7.0%. In addition, BI also lowered the Rupiah reserve requirement by 100bps to 6.5% (effective March 2016). In line with this, deposit and lending facility rates were cut by 25bps to 5% and 7.5% respectively.

Impact and view:
Short-term positive… While this is positive in the short term for the banks, as banks tend to be able to reprice deposits faster than loans, there would be some ups deposits faster than loans ide potential to NIM, particularly for banks with a deposit mix skewed towards a higher time deposit composition (eg. $BDMN, $BBTN, $BTPN). The lower rates would also be positive to multi-finance companies from a funding cost perspective.

…but we are still keeping our cautious stance on the Indonesian banks because:

1) Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality are not over yet although our base case assumes stability in 2H16

2) OJK and BI have formed an ad hoc team to push down lending rates to below 10% below 10% and the team is expected to meet this task by end 2016. Among the possible approaches to this is a new OJK regulation to cap NIM at 4% with the aim to improve efficiency and competitiveness.

Should the NIM cap regulation be implemented this will be negative to banks as this would limit to a large extent, topline growth. Even if loan growth were to be boosted to 14% as intended by BI/OJK, it would be insufficient to maintain growth momentum for the net interest income line.

There have been noises in the past to lower lending rates for loans and also to impose a cap on NIM but none of these have so far materialised.

There were however two instances which the goverment had intervened to force down loan yields:
1) the KUR loan yield cap to 19% (2016: 9% chargeable rate to borrowers + government interest subsidy of 10%) - this affected $BBRI
2) lower loan yield for subsidised mortgage to 5% (from 7.5% previously) despite being partially subsidised by the Subsidized Mortgage Liquidity Facility Scheme/Fasilitas Likuiditas Pembiayaan Perumahan (FLPP) scheme - this affected $BBTN

Stock picks:
As we retain our cautious stance on the sector, our top picks remain $BBCA and $BDMN. Our pick on $BBCA lies on its defensiveness and strong financial indicators especially with respect to asset quality. $BDMN remains our pick for a turnaround story. Key risk to $BDMN however would be its inability to retain its high NIM (>8%) should the NIM cap be strictly implemented. This would mean $BDMN would have to significantly ramp up its strategy to lower funding costs quicker than planned.

Should the NIM cap be implemented, it would be negative to the SOE banks SOE banks SOE banks namely, $BMRI, $BBNI and $BBRI, as we are of the view that the government may impose these punitive recommendations on them before rolling it out to the entire sector.
Bull
P H
Feb 22,2016 15:43:44
Indonesian Banks

Rate cut and its repercussions
• Rate cuts announced; accommodative monetary policy aimed at boosting loan growth
• Short-term positive but repercussions of further regulatory action may be negative to banks
• Keeping our cautious stance; $BBCA and $BDMN remain our picks

What’s New
Rate cut announced. BI announced a reference rate (BI rate) cut of 25bps to 7.0%. In addition, BI also lowered the Rupiah reserve requirement by 100bps to 6.5% (effective March 2016). In line with this, deposit and lending facility rates were cut by 25bps to 5% and 7.5% respectively.

Impact and view:
Short-term positive… While this is positive in the short term for the banks, as banks tend to be able to reprice deposits faster than loans, there would be some ups deposits faster than loans ide potential to NIM, particularly for banks with a deposit mix skewed towards a higher time deposit composition (eg. $BDMN, $BBTN, $BTPN). The lower rates would also be positive to multi-finance companies from a funding cost perspective.

…but we are still keeping our cautious stance on the Indonesian banks because:

1) Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality are not over yet although our base case assumes stability in 2H16

2) OJK and BI have formed an ad hoc team to push down lending rates to below 10% below 10% and the team is expected to meet this task by end 2016. Among the possible approaches to this is a new OJK regulation to cap NIM at 4% with the aim to improve efficiency and competitiveness.

Should the NIM cap regulation be implemented this will be negative to banks as this would limit to a large extent, topline growth. Even if loan growth were to be boosted to 14% as intended by BI/OJK, it would be insufficient to maintain growth momentum for the net interest income line.

There have been noises in the past to lower lending rates for loans and also to impose a cap on NIM but none of these have so far materialised.

There were however two instances which the goverment had intervened to force down loan yields:
1) the KUR loan yield cap to 19% (2016: 9% chargeable rate to borrowers + government interest subsidy of 10%) - this affected $BBRI
2) lower loan yield for subsidised mortgage to 5% (from 7.5% previously) despite being partially subsidised by the Subsidized Mortgage Liquidity Facility Scheme/Fasilitas Likuiditas Pembiayaan Perumahan (FLPP) scheme - this affected $BBTN

Stock picks:
As we retain our cautious stance on the sector, our top picks remain $BBCA and $BDMN. Our pick on $BBCA lies on its defensiveness and strong financial indicators especially with respect to asset quality. $BDMN remains our pick for a turnaround story. Key risk to $BDMN however would be its inability to retain its high NIM (>8%) should the NIM cap be strictly implemented. This would mean $BDMN would have to significantly ramp up its strategy to lower funding costs quicker than planned.

Should the NIM cap be implemented, it would be negative to the SOE banks SOE banks SOE banks namely, $BMRI, $BBNI and $BBRI, as we are of the view that the government may impose these punitive recommendations on them before rolling it out to the entire sector.
Bull
P H
Feb 22,2016 15:43:43
Indonesian Banks

Rate cut and its repercussions
• Rate cuts announced; accommodative monetary policy aimed at boosting loan growth
• Short-term positive but repercussions of further regulatory action may be negative to banks
• Keeping our cautious stance; $BBCA and $BDMN remain our picks

What’s New
Rate cut announced. BI announced a reference rate (BI rate) cut of 25bps to 7.0%. In addition, BI also lowered the Rupiah reserve requirement by 100bps to 6.5% (effective March 2016). In line with this, deposit and lending facility rates were cut by 25bps to 5% and 7.5% respectively.

Impact and view:
Short-term positive… While this is positive in the short term for the banks, as banks tend to be able to reprice deposits faster than loans, there would be some ups deposits faster than loans ide potential to NIM, particularly for banks with a deposit mix skewed towards a higher time deposit composition (eg. $BDMN, $BBTN, $BTPN). The lower rates would also be positive to multi-finance companies from a funding cost perspective.

…but we are still keeping our cautious stance on the Indonesian banks because:

1) Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality are not over yet although our base case assumes stability in 2H16

2) OJK and BI have formed an ad hoc team to push down lending rates to below 10% below 10% and the team is expected to meet this task by end 2016. Among the possible approaches to this is a new OJK regulation to cap NIM at 4% with the aim to improve efficiency and competitiveness.

Should the NIM cap regulation be implemented this will be negative to banks as this would limit to a large extent, topline growth. Even if loan growth were to be boosted to 14% as intended by BI/OJK, it would be insufficient to maintain growth momentum for the net interest income line.

There have been noises in the past to lower lending rates for loans and also to impose a cap on NIM but none of these have so far materialised.

There were however two instances which the goverment had intervened to force down loan yields:
1) the KUR loan yield cap to 19% (2016: 9% chargeable rate to borrowers + government interest subsidy of 10%) - this affected $BBRI
2) lower loan yield for subsidised mortgage to 5% (from 7.5% previously) despite being partially subsidised by the Subsidized Mortgage Liquidity Facility Scheme/Fasilitas Likuiditas Pembiayaan Perumahan (FLPP) scheme - this affected $BBTN

Stock picks:
As we retain our cautious stance on the sector, our top picks remain $BBCA and $BDMN. Our pick on $BBCA lies on its defensiveness and strong financial indicators especially with respect to asset quality. $BDMN remains our pick for a turnaround story. Key risk to $BDMN however would be its inability to retain its high NIM (>8%) should the NIM cap be strictly implemented. This would mean $BDMN would have to significantly ramp up its strategy to lower funding costs quicker than planned.

Should the NIM cap be implemented, it would be negative to the SOE banks SOE banks SOE banks namely, $BMRI, $BBNI and $BBRI, as we are of the view that the government may impose these punitive recommendations on them before rolling it out to the entire sector.
Bull