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P H
Dec 05,2016 14:41:24

Bank diberi waktu 12 bulan untuk masa transisi Pemangkasan Bunga Kartu Kredit  dari 2.9% per bulan menjadi 2.5% per bulan untuk menyesuaikan perubahan peraturan ini. Hal ini disebabkan pemangkasan dapat berdampak menurunkan pendapatan dari kartu kredit sebesar 30%. Emiten yang akan terkena dampak adalah $BMRI, $BNGA, dan $BBCA

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P H
Dec 02,2016 13:20:31

PTBA memperoleh fasilitas pinjaman sebesar Rp1,7 triliun dari BMRI untuk menggarap proyek-proyek pengembangan perusahaan. Pinjaman dibagi beberapa jenis, sebesar US$100 juta untuk pembiayaan belanja modal total sebesar US$130 juta dengan skema Fasilitas Pinjaman Transaksi Khusus. Kemudian skema Treasure Line untuk memenuhi kebutuhan likuiditas valuta asing dalam operasional perusahaan dan Rp700 miliar berupa fasilitas Trust Receive.
 
Sumber daya PTBA sebesar 8,27 miliar ton dan cadangan tertambang 3,33 miliar ton. Pada tahun 2020 PTBA mengincar produksi hingga 58 juta ton per tahun. Sementara pada 2024, menargetkan mampu mencapai produksi 98 juta ton per tahun.

Saat ini PTBA memiliki kontrak pasokan batu bara jangka panjang untuk konsumen domestik hingga 30 tahun ke depan sebesar 574 juta ton. Untuk sektor PLTU, pada 2020 diharapkan sudah memiliki sejumlah pembangkit dengan total kapasitas sebesar 1.500 megawatt, dan tahun 2025 sekitar 4.500 megawatt. Demikian dikatakan oleh Sekretaris Perusahaan Bukit Asam, Adib Ubaidillah.

$PTBA $BMRI

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P H
Dec 01,2016 23:21:47

PTBA: Obtains funding facility from BMRI; Plans higher capex in 2017

Tambang Bukit Asam ($PTBA) has just obtained loan facility from Bank Mandiri ($BMRI) for IDR1.7tn or USD230mn, which will be used for expansion in both mining and power sectors. In separate news, PTBA plans to allocate higher capex in 2017 of IDR4.5tn and also acquire another coal mine located in Kalimantan in early 2017 as part of its expansion strategy. Moreover, PTBA has reached agreement with Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) to not revise the original capacity design of the planned 2x620MW coalfired power plant in South Sumatra province. (Iqplus.info, Petromindo.com)

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P H
Dec 01,2016 15:47:00

Bukit Asam ($PTBA) to eye for another mining asset

According to local press, PTBA is planning to acquire another mining asset in FY17, which the company has reserved budget of more than USD100mn. To finance their expansion projects, PTBA has obtained loan from Bank Mandiri ($BMRI) amounting to USD230mn and Rp1.7tn. The USD230mn bank loan consists of USD100mn special borrowing facility (for capex) and USD130mn treasury line (for foreign currency needs). On the other hand, the Rp1.7tn consists of Rp700bn supplier financing and Rp700bn Trust Receipt non LC (for payment to suppliers) as well as Rp300bn invoice financing facility. (Kontan)

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P H
Dec 01,2016 11:50:55

BCA ($BBCA) and Bank Mandiri ($BMRI) sets target for next year

BBCA targets loan growth of 10-11% in 2017 and deposit growth of 5-8%. Meanwhile, BMRI targets loan growth of 12% next year, equivalent to this year’s target. In 2017, BMRI will focus on the following loan segments: corporate, consumer, and micro segment. Meanwhile, BMRI targets deposit growth of 8-10%. On a side note, BMRI targets its electronic money to grow by +30%yoy in 2017, based on the latest data published in Sept16, BMRI has issued 8.1mn electronic money cards, +32%yoy. (Kontan)

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P H
Nov 18,2016 15:16:45

BANKING SECTOR UPDATE
Recovery on track ?

 
Loans growth has rebounded
Bank Indonesia states that banking industry loans growth in October 2016 grew by 7.5% YoY. The growth was better than September’s growth of 6.5% YoY, and October is the first month where loans growth accelerates after a string of deceleration that had happened since the start of the year. Furthermore, Bank Indonesia expects that significant loans growth recovery could start in 2Q17 as appetite for capacity expansion is expected to rebound. In line with authorities’ projection, we expect that loans to grow by 11% in 2017, helped by : 1) Higher GDP growth as we expect GDP to grow by 5.3% in 2017 versus 5.1% in 2017 2) Bank Indonesia’s stance to keep liquidity afloat by keeping lenient monetary policy 3) High level consumer confidence that we expect to continue throughout 2017 where in October 2016 the reading was at 116.8, much higher than in September of 110.0.
 
NPL is stabilizing
Banking industry NPL was lower to 3.1% in September 2016 from 3.2% a month earlier after accelerating consistently since January 2016. This is an encouraging sign that asset quality has begun to stabilize. With accelerating loans growth in October 2016, we expect that the NPL reading in October could be better. The improvement of asset quality is the main theme of our call for better bottom line growth for banking industry in 2017. As of September 2016, banks grew its net income by only 9.7% YoY to Rp84.8 tn. Slower growth of provision expense in 2017 due to gradual decrease of NPL would be the main factor for net income acceleration in 2017. We expect banking industry’s to book 15-17% net income growth in 2017 thanks to higher loans growth and declining NPL.
 
Cost of fund is starting to creep up
OJK confirms that several banks from Book I to Book IV have started to slightly increase special TD rates since October 2016. The increase of TD rate is inevitable as LDR is stubbornly above 90% and banks have begun to push loans book growth after long period of asset quality consolidation. Nevertheless, we will only see gradual increase of cost of fund and stabilization of NIM instead of significant drop of NIM as we believe Bank Indonesia will keep its commitment to lenient monetary policy to keep the acceleration of GDP growth,
 
What will the central bank do ?
Bank Indonesia decided to keep reverse repo rate benchmark at 4.75% (in part to guard the exchange rate stability) in response to global uncertainty after Trump won US presidential election. However, we do not believe that BI would change its course to a more hawkish stance as inflation is still contained and the need of monetary policy to complement the already limited fiscal room. Instead, we expect BI to lower reserve requirement in 1H17 to push liquidity to the market.
 
BBNI and BJBR are still our top pick

We maintain BBNI as our top pick for Book IV bank on the back of our conviction that the bank could significantly lower improve its asset quality in 2017. We expect BBNI’s NPL to decline to 2.5% at the end of 2017 from 3Q16 level of 3.1% on. For Book III bank, BJBR is our choice as the bank’s transformation has proven to significantly improve asset quality in 2016 that can continue throughout 2017.
 

$BBNI $BBCA $BBRI $BMRI $BJBR

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P H
Nov 16,2016 12:21:45

Indonesian banking: Sept-16 data - improvement in asset quality

- Here is some details on the banking data:

- Loan growth:
1) +6.5% y-y (+3.8% ytd; +1.6% m-m) in September compared to +6.8% y-y (+2.2% ytd; +0.4% m-m) in August.
2) Adjusted for rupiah appreciation, total loan growth was +8.4% y-y, compared to +7.7% y-y in August. Rupiah loans were +10.5% y-y (+10.7% y-y in August) while FX loans in USD term is at -1.7% y-y vs. -6.9% y-y in August.
3) Based on bank classification, strongest loan growth came from BUKU IV banks at +13.5% y-y, followed by BUKU II banks at +3.9% y-y and BUKU III banks at +2.9%y-y. Meanwhile, BUKU I banks recorded a decline in loan growth at -45.1% y-y as a number of banks have been upgraded from BUKU I to BUKU II.
4) In terms of usage, investment loans still has the highest growth rate of 9.1% y-y, down from 9.4% y-y in August, followed by consumption at 8.0% y-y from 8.2%y-y in August and working capital loans at 4.2% y-y vs. 4.7% y-y in August.
5) Of the large sectors with >5% loan exposure: agriculture (6.5% exposure) +14.7% y-y vs. +15.7% y-y in August, manufacturing (17.7% exposure) at -0.1% y-y vs. +2.9% y-y, wholesale and trade (19.7%) at +7.1% y-y vs. +6.1% y-y, and home ownership (8.1% exposure) at +7.2% y-y, up from 6.8% in August.
6) Regionally, all areas showed declining y-y loan growth except Sumatera at +6.1% y-y in September from +5.5%y-y in August.

- Deposit growth:
1) +3.1% y-y (+4.3% ytd; -0.1% m-m).
2) Adjusted for the currency movement, deposit grew +5.2% y-y in September vs. +6.4%y-y in August. Rupiah deposits grew +7.1% y-y vs. +9.9% in August and foreign currency deposits contracted by 14.5% y-y. In USD terms, FX deposits contracted by 3.6% y-y.
3) Based on bank classification deposits in BUKU IV banks +8.0% y-y, BUKU III +3.8% y-y while in BUKU II -5.6%y-y and BUKU I -48.4%y-y.
4) Based on type, CASA deposits was +5.0% y-y vs. +8.8% y-y in August (CA at -2.7% y-y and savings at +11.5% y-y) while time deposits growth remains weak at +1.1% y-y. - Liquidity: the weak deposit growth increased the industry LDR to 91.5% in September from 89.9% in August. Increase in LDR was seen across all bank classifications, with the highest increase coming from BUKU II banks to 92.5% in September (from 89.0% in August) and BUKU III banks to 97.6% in September (from 94.3% in August).

- Asset quality:
1) NPL declined to 3.10% in September from 3.22% in August while special mention loans (category 2) also declined to
5.44% in September from 5.52% in August. In terms of absolute amount, total NPL increased 21.9% y-y (+29.5% ytd; -2.1% m-m).
2) Improvement in NPL was seen across all banks, with exception of BUKU I banks in which NPL increased to 2.02% in September from 1.98% in August.
3) In terms of segment, NPL in investment loans improved to 3.46% from 3.53% in August, in consumer loans to 1.71% from 1.79% and in working capital to 3.73% from 3.91%.
4) Industry with >4% NPL level: mining at 6.38% (7.22% in August), construction at 4.26% (4.92% in August), wholesale & retail at 4.42%( 4.33%), and transportation at 4.77% (5.61%). Meanwhile, NPL in manufacturing sector declined to 3.88% from 3.92% in August, in household to 1.80% from 1.88%, in apartment 2.32% from 2.44% and in shop houses to 4.16% from 4.18%.
5) Location wise, all areas saw improvement in loan quality with the highest improvement was seen in Sumatera to 3.18% from 3.38% in August and Kalimantan to 4.92% from 5.07%.

- Profitability:
1) Industry NIM improved to 5.65% from 5.59% in August thanks to continuing reduction in time deposits rates.
2) NIM in state banks increased to 6.40% from 6.24% while NIM of forex commercial banks remains stable at 5.31%.
3) NIM in BUKU IV banks increased to 6.59% (from 6.46% in August) while BUKU III NIM remained relatively stable.

- Capital: average CAR declined to 22.6% in September from 23.3% in August. Decline in CAR was seen across all bank classifications with the highest decline coming from BUKU IV banks to 20.7% (from 21.8% in August).

$BBCA $BBRI $BMRI $BBNI $PNBN

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P H
Nov 08,2016 19:02:48

Bank Mandiri ($BMRI) targets 3mn E-Cash users

$BMRI targets an additional 3mn E-Cash users by partnering up with Line Indonesia. Line Pay E-Cash can be accessed by connecting the phone number registered with Line Pay. Director of Digital Banking and Technology Rico U. Frans states that currently there are 1.7mn E-Cash users, +297%yoy. Furthermore, he states that Line has been downloaded by 90mn people and has 30mn active users, of the 30mn active users $BMRI would like to target 3mn users next year.

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P H
Nov 08,2016 18:32:53

Banking: 9M16 Results - On the Road to Recovery?

- Banks' average profit growth improved to 4% y-y in 9M16 from +1% y-y in 6M16, but loan and deposit growth remained weak at +9% y-y and +6% y-y respectively. NIM improved to 6.7% while NPL reached 3.0% with signs of peak. Trading at 1.6x P/BV 2017, we keep our Neutral sector call with $BBRI, $BBTN and $BNGA as top picks.

- Average net profit growth of 4% y-y in 9M16. The 12 banks under our result universe show improving profit growth from the previous quarter given the high losses incurred by $BNLI in 1Q and 2Q16. The results were in line with expectations, accounting 73% of the consensus’ full year targets. $BMRI, $BBTN, and $BJBR posted below expectations, while $PNBN, $BJTM and $BNGA above. $BNLI continued to record losses in 9M16 on its rising NPL level. At the PPOP level, average growth was a decent 18% y-y as banks had a better management on operating costs.

- Loan growth slowed down to 9% y-y. The industry indicates +6.4% y-y loan growth in September while some of the banks in our universe managed to record much higher loan growth; BBNI (+21% y-y) is on corporate/infrastructure loans, BBRI (+16% y-y) on corporate and micro loans, while $BBTN (+17% y-y) on housing loans. Over the past one year, more loans have been channeled into corporate (especially state companies) and micro segments, at the expense of SME commercial and consumer loan segments. Of the 12 banks, three ($BDMN, $BNGA and $BNLI) still posted negative y-y growth.

- Deposit growth also weakened to 6% y-y. Total deposit still grew at +8% y-y in June, while the 5% economic growth is not enough to generate better deposit growth. Five banks ($BDMN, $BJBR, $BJTM, $BNGA and $BNLI) still recorded negative y-y deposit growth with two of them ($BDMN and $BNLI) continued to see negative ytd growth. CASA deposits continued to gain more than time deposits, which see declining rates.

- NIM still improved to 6.7% in 9M16. In contrast to our earlier expectation, banks recorded better margin in 3Q16 as they had not lower the lending rates as much as deposits rates. While this is true in the declining rate environment, banks are also pending further reduction in view of rising need for provisioning. Average NIM reached 6.9% in 3Q16 from 6.7% in 2Q16, but this level is expected to decline in the coming quarter on pressure to reach single digit lending rates.

- NPL reaching the new peak of 3.0%. Additional problem loans are growing at a slower pace, with some banks claiming to have seen peak NPL in August. Banks like $BMRI and $BBCA still expect peak NPL in 4Q16 and continued charging high provisioning.

- Classified loans at 11.3%. Average classified loans (NPL, SML, and performing restructured loans) were at 11.2% in June and 10.9% in March 2016. This shows less pressure on asset quality while coverage/classified loans ratio improved to average 32% from 28% a year ago.

- Operating costs were well managed. The average cost/income ratio went down to 45% in 3Q16 from 48% in 2016 and 47% in 3Q15. Of the banks, $PNBN, $BNGA, and $BDMN showed the best cost/income ratio improvement.

- Maintain Neutral. We will wait for stronger support for improving NPL and hence keep our Neutral call for the stock, which trades at 1.6x P/BV 2017. Our top picks are $BBRI, $BBTN and $BNGA.

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P H
Sep 28,2016 15:36:37

Raja Garuda Mas (RGM) sudah melunasi hutang kepada sindikasi BMRI sebesar USD400juta. Porsi BMRI dalam sindikasi ini sebesar 40,53% atau setara USD162juta (Rp1.94 triliun). Jumlah ini setara dengan Rp83,3 per saham. Extra ordinary gain ini akan tercermin dalam LK 3Q16.  BUY : BMRI

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P H
Sep 22,2016 11:14:08

BMRI has accepted repatriation money of IDR5t – Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) has received around IDR5t from repatriation money due to tax amnesty. This repatriation money was received by about 23 thousand taxpayers who participated in tax amnesty.

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P H
Sep 13,2016 08:14:41

Bank Rakyat Indonesia ($BBRI), Bank Mandiri ($BMRI), Bank Negara Indonesia ($BBNI) to take on loans from China Rp130tn BBRI, BMRI, and BBNI potentially receive loans from China Development Bank (CDB) to finance government projects totaling to USD10bn or equivalent to Rp130tn next year. Deputy Ministry of SOE of Financial Services, Construction Services, and Other Services, states that they have not decided the nominal amount to be drawn down from CDB, this will depend on the projects to be financed. (Bisnis Indonesia)

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P H
Aug 29,2016 22:08:56
Indonesia Equities: Pricing In Near Term Positives

Key Points

- +9% gains in MSCI Indonesia since our country upgrade in July - Since our upgrade of Indonesian equities to overweight two months ago in the MIG publication after clarity on its tax amnesty programme emerged, sentiment has further improved following the appointment of well respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. The Indonesian equity market has seen strong equity inflows in 3Q16 lifting the index up ~9% (local currency terms, +8.2% in USD), which has outpaced world equities’ gains (+5.2%) for the same period and supported our call.

- Year to date’s gains of +18.6% has also more than recouped 2015’s losses of -12%, which has supported the turnaround highlighted in our January 2016’s South East Asia Equity Strategy report. The equity market rally year to date has been supported by a benign environment of lower interest rates, stable IDR currency vs the USD, under-owned positions in global portfolios and improving confidence in Indonesia’s recovery story. Estimated equity inflows into Indonesia so far for 3Q has exceeded the total inflows for 1H16, driving the market to new highs. Since mid May this year, it is estimated that net equity inflows reached $1.7bln, vs $1.6bln net outflows over the whole of 2015 (source: JPM estimates).


- Near term positives post amnesty and cabinet reshuffle look priced in, valuations are now close to 10 year high – At 16x PER, Indonesian equities is now trading close to +2 standard deviations to its 10 year historical average multiple and at its highest valuation level since 2007, which we believe has priced in much of the near term positives. Although near term liquidity is likely to remain supportive given benign expectations on interest rates, we caution that valuations have caught up and believe it is prudent to start taking some money off the table. On domestic updates, while the recently released 2017 budget is credible, it is unlikely to lead to further corporate earnings upgrades given a moderate government spending target of 6% (planned fiscal deficit for 2017 is 2.4% of GDP, flat/lower than 2016E). Towards the end of September and December which marks the first and second phases of the tax amnesty programme’s staggered tax rates for declared wealth, investor sentiment may also be influenced by expectations over the tax collections.


- Muted start to the 9-month tax amnesty programme, although still early days - As of 23rd August 2016, the asset declaration in the Tax Amnesty Program has reached Rp51.7tn, consisting of 85% onshore/15% offshore assets (12% overseas assets declared, 3% overseas net assets repatriated), while asset repatriation has reached Rp1.6 tn. Momentum of onshore assets declared in first half of August has picked up, with the tax office reporting about Rp11.5tn worth of onshore assets declared (>4x July’s). About three-quarters of the assets declared were from private individuals, and the balance private entities, which we view as supportive of property sector’s recovery given interest rates are expected to remain low while the Ministry of Finance has allowed repatriated funds to be invested in real assets (such as property and gold).


- Looking ahead, earnings upgrades need to pick up momentum for the rally to have more legs - Earnings wise, the recent 2Q results season was mixed with single digit corporate top line growth from a year ago. Concerns on banks remain dragged by asset quality issues while commodity related earnings have been moderate. Following the latest 2Q earnings season (where consensus earnings were trimmed -2% lower for FY16E and FY17E), FY16E and FY17E earnings are now forecast to grow +7% and +14% respectively (higher than Asia ex Japan equities’ 2.2% FY16E and 11% for FY17E respectively) which we believe is priced in current valuations.

Time to lock in some profits – Switch out of names which have rallied and offer no upside to target prices
- Sectors we are cautious on are: Commodity related plays which have rallied and priced in recovery expectations (coal – Bukit Asam, ITMG, palm oil – Astra Agro, London Sumatra), Banks (loans growth will be moderate while we expect asset quality concerns to remain a near term overhang) and Utilities (in particular, Perusahaan Gas – where we think profitability will remain pressured by regulatory efforts to lower gas prices).

Preferred Picks/Switch Ideas

- Preferred Sectors we would accumulate new positions are: Property (Bumi Serpong – Western Jakarta play, large landbank catering to middle income buyers), Telecommunications (Telekomunikasi Indonesia – improving smartphone penetration and data usage supported by a young population), Consumer (Indofood and Media Nusantara, which benefit from an improving domestic economy in 2H16) and Infrastructure (Jasa Marga – No. 1 toll road operator, long term beneficiary of infrastructure development in Indonesia).


- Risks to the current rally include weaker than expected global economy, faster than expected Federal Reserve interest rate hikes which may result in global liquidity volatility and disappointments in the domestic recovery and infrastructure spending pace (continues to be a focus in the 2017 budget, with 9% yoy expected growth).


$PTBA $KKGI $HRUM $ITMG $AALI $LSIP $SGRO $SMAR $PGAS $BBCA $BBRI $BMRI $BBNI $BSDE $ASRI $LPCK $LPKR $CTRA $TLKM $INDF $ICBP $AISA $MNCN $JSMR

Bull
P H
Jul 27,2016 08:50:23
EARNINGS CALENDAR (Half Year 2016 - Estimated)

JULY 2016

Jul 25, 2016 :
$BBTN (Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 26, 2016
$BDMN (Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT)
$BMRI (Persero) Tbk PT Earnings Release - 4:00PM GMT+7

Jul 27, 2016
$AALI (Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT)
$HMSP (Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT)
$LPPF (Matahari Department Store Tbk PT)
$MPPA (Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT)
$PTBA (Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 28, 2016
$ASII (Astra International Tbk PT)
$BEST (Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk PT)
$BJBR (PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk)
$DOID (Bloomberg)
$NCO (Vale Indonesia Tbk PT)
$JPFA (Bloomberg)
$PSAB (Bloomberg)
$SSMS (Bloomberg)
$SMGR (Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$UNTR (United Tractors Tbk PT)
$UNVR (Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT)

Jul 29, 2016
$ASRI (Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT)
$ADHI (Bloomberg)
$BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk PT)
$BNGA (Bloomberg)
$BNLI (Bloomberg)
$BNII (Bloomberg)
$BKSL (Bloomberg)
$BHIT (Bloomberg)
$BISI (Bloomberg)
$CPIN (Bloomberg)
$CTRA (Ciputra Development Tbk PT)
$CTRP (Bloomberg)
$ELSA (Bloomberg)
$GIAA (Bloomberg)
$GJTL (Bloomberg)
$GGRM (Gudang Garam Tbk PT)
$NKP (Bloomberg)
$INTP (Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT)
$INDF (Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$ICBP (Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$INDY (Bloomberg)
$KARW (Bloomberg)
$KAEF (Bloomberg)
$KIJA (Bloomberg)
$KLBF (Kalbe Farma Tbk PT)
$KRAS (Bloomberg)
$LPKR (Lippo Karawaci Tbk PT)
$LSIP (Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk PT)
$MAPI (Bloomberg)
$PWON (Bloomberg)
$PNBN, $PNLF, $PNIN (Bloomberg)
$PTPP (Bloomberg)
$RALS (Bloomberg)
$SMRA (Bloomberg)
$TBLA (Bloomberg)
$TLKM (Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$TOTL (Bloomberg)
$WSKT (Bloomberg)

AUGUST 2016
Aug 1, 2016
$HRUM (Harum Energy Tbk PT)
$SSIA (Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT)

Aug 10, 2016
$ITMG (Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk PT)

Aug 12, 2016
$EXCL (XL Axiata Tbk PT)

Aug 29, 2016
$ADRO (Adaro Energy Tbk PT)
$ANTM (Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk PT)
$BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$ISAT (Indosat Tbk PT)
$PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

SEPTEMBER

Sep 13, 2016
$SMCB (Holcim Indonesia)

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P H
Jul 13,2016 11:45:57
$BMRI akan memberikan pinjaman kepada $MEDC sebesar USD360 juta untuk rencana akuisisi saham PT Amman Mineral Internasional (AMI). Sebelumnya MEDC mengumumkan secara resmi persetujuan akuisisi 82,2% saham  AMI dari PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara dengan total nilai USD 2,6miliar, atau sekitar Rp3,8 triliun.

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P H
Jun 14,2016 08:23:27
Bank Mandiri ($BMRI): Spring Has Not Come Yet

As Bank Mandiri’s dismal 1Q16 was due to significant provisions it made, we cut our FY16 earnings estimate to IDR19.1trn (from IDR21.1trn), mainly due to the longer period to recover asset quality. We expect the LLC ratio to stay at 144.2%, in line with management's guidance. In addition, we anticipate margin to gradually fall due to a rebalanced loan book as it would focus more on corporate lending – a segment offering lower loan yields. Maintain NEUTRAL with a new TP of IDR10,100 (from IDR10,500, 6% upside), implying 1.8x 2016F P/BV.

¨ Asset quality to stay under pressure this year. Bank Mandiri’s gross non-performing loans (NPL) ratio rose to 3.2% in March (Dec 2015: 2.6%). This was mostly due to its clients engaged in commodities-related sectors (eg coal contractors and coal transportation providers), while commodity prices remained stagnant and total loans grew 7.4% YoY. We still expect asset quality to stay pressured for the next three quarters, given the bank’s substantial loan book of IDR564.7trn. Thus, gross NPL would only improve to 3.1% by year-end as we also trim our FY16 loan growth target to 10.9%, in line with management’s revised loan growth target of 10-12%.

*Maintain a sufficient level of LLC. As the pressure on asset quality may remain, management also emphasised that it would maintain its loan loss coverage (LLC) ratio at above 140%. In 1Q16, its credit cost shot up to 323bps, which brought its LLC ratio down to 131.1%. We estimate its LLC ratio to be at 144.2% this year, along with a 235bps credit cost.

* Margin to be stable. We expect its net interest margin (NIM) to be stable this year at 5.9%, due to a lower blended cost of funds (CoF) of 3.2% which in turn would be offset by a sharp fall in asset yield of 8.8%. For next year, we estimate its margin to gradually decline by c.13bps as we expect its asset yield to come under further pressure due to the bank rebalancing its loan book and focusing more on corporate lending – a segment that offers lower loan yields.

* Expect negative bottomline growth this year. With more conservative assumptions (a 144.2% LLC ratio, 3.1% gross NPL ratio and 10.9% loan growth), we expect earnings to decline 6.0% YoY to IDR19.1trn this year.

* In 2017, we expect its earnings to recover by 9.6% YoY on the back of a pick-up in loan growth of 12.4% YoY and an improvement in asset quality.

* NEUTRAL. After Bank Mandiri reported a disappointing 1Q16 due to significant provision, we adjusted some of our key assumptions and derived a new TP of IDR10,100. Our new GGM-based TP implies 1.8x 2016F P/BV (-0.5SD from its historical mean). Maintain NEUTRAL. (Eka Savitri)

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P H
Jun 07,2016 12:26:34
BERITA SAHAM 07 JUNI 2016


•PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI : Pemerintah memberi sinyal penurunan asumsi laju produk domestik bruto dari usulan RAPBNP 2016 sebesar 5,3% menjadi 5,1%-5,2%. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

•REGULASI IMPOR PONSEL & KOMPUTER : Per 1 Juli, Importir Produsen Wajib Investasi
Mulai 1 Juli 2016, impor telepon seluler, komputer genggam (handheld), dan komputer tablet khususnya untuk perangkat yang berada dalam jaringan 4G LTE oleh importir produsen wajib menyertakan bukti investasi di dalam negeri. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

•INDUSTRI PAKAN TERNAK : Jagung Ditekan, Impor Gandum Melonjak, Pengetatan impor jagung berimbas pada meningkatnya impor gandum untuk pakan ternak. Penurunan impor jagung juga telah menyebabkan penyerapan komoditas itu dari petani lokal naik cukup signifikan. (BISNIS INDONESIA) Comment : good for BISI

•TAMBAHAN MODAL BUMN : PMN Cair, Rencana penerbitan saham baru oleh BUMN kembali mencuat setelah pemerintah mengusulkan Penyertaan Modal Negara (PMN) dalam Rancangan APBN Perubahan 2016 kepada DPR. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

•WTON : Perusahaan beton pracetak PT Wijaya Karya Beton Tbk. sudah mengantongi proyek infrastruktur HSR Jakarta-Bandung dan menggenggam total nilai kontrak baru hingga Rp1,3 triliun. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

•RI MASUK LIMA BESAR DUNIA - Ledakan Besar di Ritel : Lompatan peringkat Indonesia, dari 12 menjadi 5, dalam Global Retail Development Index (GRDI) 2016 kian mengonfirmasi terjadinya booming sektor ritel di Tanah Air. (BISNIS INDONESIA) Comment : Good For ACES, RANC

•STOK CPO MENURUN : Ramadan Kerek Harga CPO, Persediaan minyak kelapa sawit di Malaysia, sebagai produsen kedua terbesar di dunia, diprediksi menyusut ke level terendah dalam dua tahun terakhir. Harga pun berpeluang mencapai level 2.900 ringgit per ton pada bulan ini. (BISNIS INDONESIA) Good For LSIP, AALI

•TLKM : PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk mengaku sudah meraih pendapatan sekitar Rp 15 triliun dari segmen High End Market yang dikelola Enterprise Customer Facing Unit (CFU). (INDO TELKO)

•BBRI- BMRI : Bank BRI (Persero) Tbk dan Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk berkomitmen membiayai permodalan bagi distributor minyak pelumas buatan PT Pertamina Lubricants. (KOMPAS)

•BMRI : Bank Mandiri’s e-money solution provider PT Digital Artha Media (DAM) will sign partnership agreements with 13 e-commerce companies while Indonesian Agency for Creative Economy (BEKRAF) has joined hands with several venture capital firms to fund the 16 sub-sectors in the creative industry. (DEAL STREET ASIA)

•Harga Nickel Dan Timah
Tin 3M : 16945  +350  +2.11%
Nickel 3M : 8665  +165  +1.94%

$ERAA $TELE $TRIO $GLOB $BISI $CPIN $MAIN $JPFA $WTON $WIKA $ACES $RANC $AALI $LSIP $SIMP $SMAR $SGRO $TLKM $BMRI $BBRI

 -----------------------------------------

( OCBC, DISCLAIMER ON)
Bull
P H
Jun 04,2016 18:48:48
Bank Mandiri predicts credit to grow by 8% in 2Q16

Bank Mandiri ($BMRI) predicts that its credit disbursement will grow by 8-9% YoY in 2Q16. As of 1Q16, the bank has disbursed IDR513.81trn of credit (-4.15% QoQ) or an increase of 7.37% YoY compared to 1Q15’s IDR478.63trn. The bank’s president director stated that it expects the credit demand will start to recover in 3Q16 amid the predicted increase in government spending. However, the bank is still optimistic that it can reach the government’s credit disbursement target of 12-14%. (Bisnis Indonesia)
 
Comment: As we already emphasized in our reinitiation report (dated April 19, 2016), loan growth would pick up in 2H16 following the similar cyclicality of government spending. Apart from that, asset quality remain our main concern on Mandiri as the management also guided that the NPL in 2Q16 would be higher compared to 1Q16. (Eka Savitri) 

Bull
P H
Jun 04,2016 18:47:47
Bank Negara Indonesia : Key Takeaways From Bojonegoro Site Visit
 
Last weekend, BBNI took us with several foreign and local investors on a site visit to Bojonegoro, which had the highest GDP growth of 13.3% in the country last year. By leveraging its close connection with the local government, BBNI is able to tap into the medium-size enterprise and corporate loan segments in the region. We maintain our BUY call and GGM-derived TP of IDR6,200 (34% upside). The stock is currently trading at 1.0x 2016F P/BV (-1SD of its historical mean).

¨ Support from local government. Bojonegoro recorded 13.3% GDP growth in 2015, thanks to its abundant oil & gas reserves. Amid lower commodity prices, the local government has set the minimum wages for villages at only IDR1m (below the minimum wages of IDR1.3m for its city) to stimulate growth in surrounding villages and to attract more local and foreign investors in the non-commodity sector. The local government has also simplified the permit application process for investors under one roof in an effort to achieve more sustainable GDP growth going forward.

¨ More players in local banking landscape. Given its high GDP growth, more banks have opened branches in Bojonegoro. Apart from state-owned enterprise (SoE) banks and regional bank (Bank Jatim), these include private banks eg Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN), Panin (PNBN) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA)). This has led to increased competition in the area. Specifically, we think that Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) is well-positioned due to its strong relationship with the local Government and business owners.

¨ Leveraging its relationship. During our site visit, we met up with one of BBNI’s corporate borrowers – the biggest Wallet bird nest producer in the area. The company started out managing bird nests but has now expanded to the downstream business by producing bird nest bottled beverage using recycled water and by-products of its upstream bird nests. However, we think its downstream business is still at an early stage and would only be profitable in three years’ time at the earliest due to the small market for specialised (bird nest) bottled beverage. Moreover, with the estimated ASP of IDR35,000, its product is relatively expensive in the bottled beverage market given that most Indonesians prefer tea bottled beverage. The second BBNI borrower we visited was a local batik producer, who emphasised that her business is a side job to supplement her full-time employment as a junior high school teacher. This falls under BBNI’s small business segment due its <IDR5bn loan size. On the other hand, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) caters more towards loan sizes of <IDR100m, while Bank Mandiri (BMRI) taps more into the national-scale corporate segment.

¨ Maintain BUY and GGM-derived TP of IDR6,200, which implies 1.3x 2016F P/BV. The stock is currently trading at 1x 2016F P/BV (-1SD of its historical mean). Key risks to our call are:
i. Government intervention risk;
ii. Lower-than-expected GDP growth that may worsen its assets quality. (Eka Savitri)

$BBNI $BJTM $PNBN $BTPN $BBCA $BMRI $BBRI

Bull
P H
May 25,2016 09:12:24
LTV properti dilonggarkan, Bank yang memiliki KPR besar:


Bank Indonesia mengkaji penghapusan larangan inden KPR rumah kedua. Selain itu, BI juga tengah mengkaji untuk melonggarkan ketentuan LTV bagi KPR. Pelonggaran ini akan berlaku bagi bank yang memiliki NPL dibawah 5%.


Berikut komposisi KPR terhadap total KPR:

BBTN   90%
BBCA   15%
BBNI   11%
BBRI   3%
BMRI   0,7%



Kebijakan pelonggaran LTV akan sangat dirasakan dampak positifnya bagi BBTN.
BBCA dan BBNI juga memiliki portfolio sekitar 11-15%, meski tidak besar, namun cukup mendorong pertumbuhan kreditnya.
Sementara BBRI dan BMRI tidak fokus pada bisnis KPR.

$BBTN $BBCA $BBNI $BBRI $BMRI

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P H
May 24,2016 22:02:40
Lending rates remain under scrutiny by government
Since the new government took office in November 2014, there has been increased focus on lowering lending rates to help boost  economic growth and improve Indonesia’s competitiveness vs. its neighbors. So far the Financial Services Authority (OJK) and Bank Indonesia have taken steps to ease borrowing conditions (see Exhibit 5). While average lending rates have begun to decline, overall lending rates/NIMs/ROAs remain higher than that of ASEAN peers.

Could it intervene further?
OJK has ruled out a formal cap on lending rates, but it has asked banks to propose how “single digit” lending rates could be achieved in 2016. So far, lower lending rates are already being targeted in three ways: (1) reducing deposit costs for lenders; (2) providing a lower-cost substitute, e.g. government subsidized lending; or (3) providing incentives for greater competition. Government officials have also discussed the potential for a further cut in the subsidized micro finance lending rate and a capping of SOE deposit rates to reduce system interest rates further.

Broader systemic risks a concern given structurally high rates
A broad-based reduction of industry lending rates could result in credit rationing as banks avoid riskier segments with higher credit risks, reduce lending in remote areas, and further shrink loan books of smaller banks with higher funding/operational costs.  Additionally, system liquidity risks are a concern given the already high LDR and slow deposit growth. Tax amnesty could boost to system liquidity, but falling deposit rates and policy uncertainty could dis-incentivize repatriation of offshore funds.

BDMN and BBRI most impacted; BBNI (CL-Buy) still attractive
We cut EPS for our coverage by up to 24% and adjust our target prices to reflect further cannibalization of high-margin lending into our forecasts and a slower recovery in credit costs. We downgrade BDMN to Sell given these headwinds and its larger earnings risk from single-digit lending rate pressures. Upside risk: Faster growth in SME lending; better funding costs. While BBNI could see downside 2017/2018 ROA of 1.8%-1.9 (vs. GSe of 2.0-2.1%) under single-digit lending rates, its valuation would still be attractive with a 2016E P/BV of 1.0X. At CL-Buy, BBNI remains our top pick.

$BMRI $BBCA $BBRI $BBNI

Bear
P H
May 17,2016 12:27:24
Bank Mandiri – Cut TP on lingering NPL

We lower our 2016-17F EPS by -10% due to BMRI’s lower than expected 1Q16 profit of IDR3.8t (-26% YoY). Accordingly, our GGM-based TP is reduced by 2.5% to IDR8,000, still pegged to 1.4x FY16 P/BV, but on a slightly lower ROE. We have also taken into account a prolonged NPL issue, and the weaker loan growth outlook makes the bank’s 6.3% NIM seems unsustainable under OJK’s single digit lending rate requirement. Reiterate HOLD with near-term risk to the downside

Bear
P H
May 11,2016 18:34:22
BRI dan Bank Mandiri Cari Dana Segar dari Pasar Modal

Harian Kontan memberitakan Dua bank pelat merah, yakni Bank Mandiri dan Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) mematangkan penerbitan obligasi tahun ini. Bank Mandiri sudah menunjuk empat underwriter. Sementara BRI telah mengumumkan secara detail penerbitan obligasi berkelanjutan berkelanjutan tahap III tahun 2016.

Direktur Utama Bank Mandiri Kartika Wirjoatmodjo mengatakan, rencana total penerbitan obligasi bank berkode BMRI ini mencapai Rp 13 triliun hingga Rp 14 triliun. Pada tahun ini Bank Mandiri akan merilis obligasi senilai Rp 5 triliun–Rp 10 triliun. “Ini untuk kebutuhan alternatif pendanaan,”

Direktur Keuangan Bank Mandiri Pahala Mansury menambahkan, nantinya tenor penerbitan obligasi tersebut berkisar antara 5 tahun–10 tahun. Obligasi ini bakal terbit antara akhir semester I dan awal semester II.
Selanjutnya obligasi tersebut akan digunakan untuk kebutuhan likuiditas bank. Sebab, Bank Mandiri tengah memperlambat penghimpunan dana mahal dari deposito, demi menekan biaya dana atawa cost of fund.

Tiko menegaskan, selain penerbitan obligasi, pihaknya juga sedang menjajaki penerbitan beberapa instrumen lain sebagai alternatif yang berfungsi untuk lebih melaksanakan pendalaman pasar ke pasar uang. “Harapannya akan ada tambahan alternatif lain selain deposito,” ujar Tiko.
Tiko menjelaskan, beberapa alternatif instrumen kedepan yang akan dikaji beberapa diantaranya adalah MTN, NCD dan promosiory notes. Namun untuk instrumen terakhir yaitu promisory notes, kata Tiko, harus ada kejelasan aturan main dari regulator agar banyak bank yang bisa memanfaatkan alternatif pendanaan tersebut.

Sementara BRI berencana menerbitkan obligasi berkelanjutan tahap III 2016. Bank bersandi saham BBRI tersebut sudah mengumumkan secara resmi ke regulator.
Berdasarkan prospektus yang diterbitkan BRI, lewat obligasi berkelanjutan tahap III ini BRI akan menerbitkan obligasi sebanyak Rp 4,35 triliun. BRI sudah menunjuk empat sekuritas sebagai penjamin emisi yaitu Bahana Securities, Danareksa Sekuritas, Indo Premier Securities dan Standard Chartered Securities Indonesia.
Sebagai gambaran, penerbitan obligasi BRI seri III tahun 2016 ini merupakan bagian dari serangkaian penerbitan surat utang BRI, yang ditargetkan dirilis sebanyak-banyaknya Rp 12 triliun.

$BBRI $BMRI

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P H
May 02,2016 12:13:21
Bisnis Indonesia memberitakan Meski sebagian masih di bawah konsensus, kinerja emiten berkapitalisasi pasar raksasa atau big cap sebagai lokomotif lantai bursa mulai melaju pada kuartal I/2016.
emiten rokok PT Gudang Garam Tbk. (GGRM) menjadi jawara dengan pertumbuhan laba bersih yang dapat diatribusikan kepada entitas induk mencapai 32,09% (year-on-year/yoy) senilai Rp1,69 triliun.
Sebaliknya, raksasa otomotif PT Astra International Tbk. (ASII) harus terpuruk dengan koreksi taba 22,04% menjadi Rp3.11 triliun ditemani oleh PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk. (UNVR), yang labanya juga turun 1,36% menjadi Rp1,57 triliun. (Lihat tabel)
 
Kinerja GGRM juga mengejutkan lantaran lebih tinggi 36,56% dari proyeksi konsensus yang dirangkum Bloomberg. Sementara itu, kinerja ASII awal tahun ini justru lebih rendah 24,23% dari proyeksi konsensus.
Berdasarkan data yang dihimpun Bisnis, hanya PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. (BMRI) yang belum merilis kineria keuangan kuartal I/2106 dari 10 emiten big cap.
 
Analys KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Heldy Arifien mengatakan pertumbuhan kinerja emiten berkapitalisasi pasar raksasa itu bisa menjadi penggerak indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG). Ini terutama dari saham sektor barang-barang konsumsi seperti PT Unilever Tbk. (UNVR). PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, (HMSP), dan PT Gudang Garam Tbk, (GGRM) yang dalam beberapa pekan ini menjadi penggerak indeks.
"Sektor perbankan yang menjadi bobot 30% terhadap IHSG masih tertahan karena adanya sentimen negatif terkait pemangkasan margin. Beberapa kinerja emiten big cap akan menjadi mothers minimal sampai kuartal I/2016
 
Dia menilai, dari katalis yang ada, termasuk kinerja emiten kuartal I/2016, dapat mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi ke area positif. Bila pertumbuhan ekonomi membaik, dia optimistis IHSG bakal menembus level 5.000 pada paruh pertama tahun ini.
Apalagi, transaksi perdagangan di lantai bursa juga diprediksi meningkat seiring dengan rencana diberlakukannya fraksi harga yang baru dengan lima kelompok harga
 
Kendati demikian, tembusnya level psikologis 5,000 bakal bergantung pada kepastian rencana pemerintah untuk memangkas margin bunga bersih pada sektor perbankan, Bila rencana itu batal diimplementasikan, IHSG dipastikan berjalan mulus menembus level 5.000.
Menurutnya, sektor yang diproyeksi akan moncer pada tahun ini adalah properti dan consumer goods. Adanya pemangkasan suku bunga acuan (BI Rate) dan implementasi pengampunan pajak (tax amnesty) dipastikan akan melonggarkan likuiditas.
Pertumbuhan likuiditas itu, katanya, akan mendorong meningkatnya daya beli masyarakat. Sisi lainnya, dana masuk dari pengampunan pajak juga diperkirakan menggerakkan kinerja emiten infrastruktur

$GGRM $ASII $BMRI $HMSP $UNVR
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P H
Apr 26,2016 13:52:39
Banking; Limited Impact from Change in BI Reference Rate

- BI will change the benchmark rate into 7-day reverse repo rate, effective 19 August 2016. While OJK has yet to decide their maximum rate, we believe there will not be any major change in rates and hence impact is neutral on banks. We maintain our Neutral rating on the sector on rising NPL and lower margin.

- New central bank benchmark rate. Bank Indonesia has just announced that they will change the reference rate from BI rate into 7-day reverse repo rate (RRR), effective 19 August 2016. This will bring down the benchmark rate closer to the overnight interbank rate of 4.8%, in line with the practice conducted by many other central banks. The 7-day RRR is currently at 5.50%, while the BI rate is at 6.75%, similar to the 12-month interbank rate.

- OJK needs to change their ceiling rates. All of the banks under BUKU 4 (main capital >Rp30tr) and BUKU 3 (main capital of Rp5-30tr) are required to set maximum rupiah time deposit rates of BI rate +75-100bps, or 7.50-7.75% pa. With the BI rate no longer available in the future, OJK needs to use the new benchmark, either the 7-day reverse repo or other rate. What we have to confirm is whether OJK will keep the same premium to set the maximum rates or change it (reduce or expand it). If they use the new reference rate and keep the same premium, banks will see their cost of funds decline substantially by 125bps. However, the central bank has been quoted saying that OJK will use the 12 month SBI (currently at 6.75%), similar to the current BI rate, as the base for the deposit rate cap, in which case there will be no change in rates.

- Implication to the banking industry. We believe the impact will be neutral to banks. While there is a chance that deposit rates will be lowered following the change of the reference rate, BI’s statement that OJK might still use the 12- month SBI rate should keep the rates in line with the movement of the benchmark rate. The LPS guaranteed deposit rate (for deposits <Rp2bn in a bank) for commercial banks is at 7.25%, while the maximum special rate set by OJK for large deposits is at 7.75%.

- Concerns over deposits shifting to bonds overstated. There has been a concern that some large deposits will be shifted into the bond market, in particular the government bonds, which provide 7.4% yield for 10-year tenor, as well as the corporate bonds with higher yield. However, the market size of the government bonds of Rp1,473tr is 82% of total rupiah time deposits and the size of the total bond market of Rp1,727tr is 96% to total rupiah time deposits. This makes little room for rupiah time deposits to switch into bonds given their similar size. What will happen in our opinion is the rising demand for bonds, increasing their value and lowering the yield towards the deposit rates. The government will still keep issuing new bonds, but this will not be enough to satisfy demand, hence depending on the OJK’s new rate cap on large deposits, we do not see significant shift in time deposits and concerns over liquidity problem is not warranted.

- Deposit structure – Based on LPS data, total banks’ third party funds were Rp4,402tr in Dec 15, of which 84% of them were rupiah deposits or Rp3,723tr. Of this amount, 49% (Rp1,812tr) were rupiah deposits with outstanding amount of >Rp2bn (11% or Rp411tr with deposits between Rp2-5bn and 38% or Rp1,402tr with deposits >Rp5bn). Hence the size of the large deposits of >Rp5bn is close to the government bond market as well.

- Expect rates to decline. We have factored in declining interest rates on both deposits and lending rates of around 75- 100bps pa in 2016-2017. Aside from the government’s pressure for banks to lower the rates, the lower inflation expectations should also support lower rates. Under the declining interest rate scenario, usually banks will see a temporary margin expansion as they lower the cost of funds a few months before lending rate adjustment. However, we expect a 20bps average margin reduction in the industry in 2016 and another 30bps in 2017, taking into account steeper reduction in lending rates, as anticipated by the authorities.

- Maintain Neutral on banking. At this juncture, we maintain our Neutral stance on the banking industry as we see risk of rising problem loans in the coming months plus lower margin. This should limit the industry's earnings growth, which we expect at 7% this year. We keep BBNI (TP Rp6,000) and BBTN (TP Rp2,100) as our sector top picks. The recent price weakness on BBRI (TP Rp12,000) makes its valuation attractive at this level however, we keep our Neutral call for now.

$BBCA $BBRI $BMRI $BBNI $BBTN
Bull
P H
Apr 23,2016 00:30:03
Indonesia Bank NPL estimated to stand at 2.8%

Bank Indonesia estimated that the non performing loan (NPL) ratio for Indonesian banks stand at 2.7-2.8% in 1Q16. The central bank stated that the banking industry is still cautious in its credit disbursement amid the high credit risk this year. The central bank further stated that the credit demand is not as high and is still waiting for the lower benchmark rate to support its growth. Moreover, the NPL for mortgage (KPR) stood at 2.6% in 2M16 or 0.3% higher compared to 12M15. While mining sector NPL reached 4.67% or 0.55% higher than 12M15.

$BBCA $BMRI $BBNI $BBRI
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P H
Apr 20,2016 09:38:58
Banks - Bumpy But Still Promising
 
We re-initiate coverage on Indonesia banks with an OVERWEIGHT. Higher government spending should translate into a 5.1% GDP growth pick-up and stronger loan growth of 14.3%. We forecast for earnings to grow a stronger 8.7% as credit costs stabilise at 161bps. Our Top Picks are BBCA (strong asset quality and least vulnerable to regulatory risks) and BBTN, as it would benefit most from the Government’s subsidised mortgage scheme.

¨ Reasonable valuations on higher GDP growth. According to our economists, 2016 would be a better year, supported by higher government spending in 2M16 to IDR5.4trn (+306% YoY) and a GDP growth pick-up to 5.1%. Yet with such potential, Indonesian banks under our coverage are trading at current P/BV multiple of 2.2x 2016F P/BV vs a historical mean of 2.9x and -2SD of 2.1x. We believe the multiple de-rating reflects the slide in ROAE to 17.6% for 2016F from c.25% in 2010 as loan growth slowed and credit costs spiked.

¨ Two sides of the knife. The Financial Services Authority (OJK) has introduced changes/revised guidelines to spur banks to lend more, but its renewed lower lending rates push has unnerved investors. We believe an immediate lending rate cuts to single digits directive is unlikely, as this has a detrimental impact on earnings. We expect it to take indirect measures that provide banks room to lower lending rates. March’s 125bps cut in maximum time deposit rates was the first move in this direction. We believe state-owned enterprise (SOE) banks would be most impacted, as the OJK would expect them to take the lead.

¨ Lower margins outlook. Lower caps for time deposit (TD) rates would mitigate the policy rate cuts (75bps YTD and another 25bps expected by end-2016), resulting in a moderate 7-12bps decline in net interest margins (NIMs). We expect Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) and Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN) to be most affected, while Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) are expected to see some uptick in NIMs.

¨ Smoother assets quality ride. Stronger economic growth and lower interest rates, we believe, would ease pressure on asset quality in 2016. We expect non-performing loans (NPLs) to trend higher in 1H16 and peak in 2Q16. Among banks under our coverage, we believe Bank Mandiri (given its loan portfolio size) would need a longer time to improve asset quality. We expect sector gross NPL ratio to edge down to 2% by Dec 2016 (Dec 2015: 2.1%) with stable 161bps credit costs and improvements in loan loss coverage to 155.2% by end-2016.

¨ Wholesale funding as additional liquidity source. As the system loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) touched 90.9% in January, banks are likely to tap the wholesale market for funding, given more affordable benchmark rates and longer maturity profiles. Negotiable certificates of deposits, bonds and medium-term notes are the preferred wholesale instruments of the three big SOE banks.

¨ Bank Central Asia (BBCA) and BBTN are our Top Picks. Given regulatory risks and asset quality concerns, BBCA is our Top Pick for big-cap banks. Its premium valuation (3.0x 2016F P/BV vs peers’ 1.8x average) is justified as its NIMs are least vulnerable to government intervention risks while assets quality is superior vis-à-vis peers. BBTN is our small-cap Top Pick as we anticipate ROAE expansion and asset quality improvements in the next two years.

$BBCA $BMRI $BBRI $BBNI $BBTN $BTPN $PNBN $BDMN $BNGA
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P H
Apr 18,2016 12:18:33
Bunga Acuan Berubah, Saham Bank Layak Diburu

Koran Tempo memberitakan Harga saham perbankan turun tajam akibat kebijakan Bank Indonesia, yang mengubah suku bunga acuan (BI Rate) menjadi 7-Day (Reverse) Repo Rate (suku bunga acuan repo tujuh harian). Pengamat dari PT NH Korindo Securities Indonesia, Reza Priyambada, mengatakan penurunan tersebut justru menjadi momentum bagi investor untuk memborong saham bank. "Saat ini justru kesempatan buat beli saham bank mumpung lagi diskon besar,"

Menurut Reza, penurunan harga saham bank sepanjang pekan lalu terjadi akibat salah persepsi soal kebijakan BI tersebut. BI sedianya ingin memperkuat kerangka kebijakan moneter serta membuat spread (selisih) antara BI Rate dan suku bunga acuan negara lain tidak terlalu jauh. Sebagian investor dan analis melihat kebijakan ini bisa menurunkan potensi pendapatan bunga bank

Akhir pekan lalu, BI mengumumkan perubahan acuan BI Rate menjadi 7-Day Repo Rate. BI memindahkan titik acuan kebijakan dari BI Rate, yang berjangka tenor 12 bulan, ke tenor lebih pendek, yakni tujuh hari. Saat ini, BI Rate sebesar 6,75 persen, sedangkan BI 7-day Repo Rate sebesar 5,5 persen (setara dengan suku bunga operasi moneter tujuh hari).

Sebelum kebijakan ini diumumkan, sepanjang pekan lalu, harga saham bank-bank besar anjlok. Saham PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI), misalnya, dalam penutupan pada pekan lalu, anjlok menjadi Rp 10.050 per saham, atau tersungkur 7 persen dibanding pada pekan sebelumnya (Rp 10.800 per saham). Adapun harga saham PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI) anjlok 6 persen menjadi Rp 9.250 per saham. Sementara itu, harga saham PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI) jeblok 7 persen menjadi Rp 4.840 per saham.

Namun harga saham PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) sedikit menguat menjadi Rp 13.100 per saham ketimbang saat penutupan pekan sebelumnya (Rp 13.075 per saham). Menurut Reza, anjloknya harga saham ini juga terjadi lantaran beberapa analis dan lembaga riset menurunkan peringkat bank itu di antara saham beberapa bank besar di Indonesia.
Ekonom dari Universitas Indonesia, Lana Soelistianingsih menilai kebijakan BI yang mengubah acuan dari BI Rate menjadi 7-day Repo Rate merupakan langkah yang tepat saat ini. Kebijakan ini akan berdampak pada penurunan biaya operasi perbankan. Dengan begitu, bank bisa menurunkan bunga kreditnya. Dari sisi momentum sangat pas karena menjelang Lebaran dan tahun ajaran baru sekolah, ujarnya.

$BBCA $BMRI $BBRI $BBNI
Bull
P H
Apr 13,2016 09:13:59
Banking stocks drop

BMRI down -4% on Friday as company gave a weak guidance for 1Q16 results

·         BMRI still posted positive PPOP growth by 1Q16 on the back of ~9% YoY loan growth.

·         However, the bank decided to build more provision which should result in stable coverage ratio of ~150% (consolidated) in 1Q16 but might hurt the bottom line earnings.

·         NPL (bank only) expected to go up from YE15 level of 2.3%. The trend expected to continue in 2Q16 with the consolidated numbers might go as high as 3.5% vs. YE15 position of 2.6%, before declining to ~3% by YE16.

·         We expect to see an increase in special mention loans in 1Q16 coming from a single account which is likely to be restructured in 2Q16 to prevent it from dropping further to NPL in 2H16.

·         We have taken into account the rising NPL trend in our FY16 forecast. Maintain HOLD for BMRI with TP at IDR8,200 (9.2x FY16F P/E, 1.4x P/BV) on the back of 4% YoY EPS growth.

·         The detailed 1Q16 earnings will be announced on the 3rd week of April.
Bear
P H
Apr 05,2016 15:30:37
Banking: 2M16 Results Wrap – Continuing Provisioning

- Banks have not shown significant earnings improvement in 2M16, with average net profit growth of 6% y-y, accounting for 14% of consensus expectations. Meanwhile, average NIM remained stable at 6.6% with loan growth of 11% y-y (vs. industry loans of 8%) and provisioning increased 60% y-y. Maintain Neutral.

- 6% y-y average earnings growth - banks have not shown any significant earnings improvement in the first two months of the year with average net earnings growth of 6% y-y. The results were still within expectations, accounting for 14% of average consensus’ full year forecast. Despite 16% y-y growth in operating income (net interest income plus non-interest income), banks have been increasing provisioning charges, which rose 60% y-y, as an anticipation for higher problem loans ahead. This, in addition to growing operating expenses, limited earnings growth. Among the larger banks, BBCA posted the highest earnings growth of 18% y-y, while among the smaller banks, BBTN, BJBR, and BJTM excelled with 19% y-y growth rate. Meanwhile BTPN and BDMN suffered 20% and 17% y-y earnings decline respectively due to competition in the micro lending.

- Loan and deposit growth. Due to cyclicality, most banks recorded negative or slow loan m-m growth in February, with average growth rate of 11% y-y, higher than the indicated industry loan growth of 8% y-y. Some banks reported high loan growth, such as BBNI due to government projects and BBTN on subsidized housing loans. Deposit growth was also weak, averaging 7% y-y, similar to the industry level, with CASA deposit growth overtaking time deposit growth at 12% vs. 1% yy. This is partly due to increasing government funds transferred as well as the crowding out effect on the government’s bond issuance and the regulation that requires pension funds to place some portion of their funds in government papers.

- Stable net interest margin for now – average NIM remained high at 6.6% in 2M16, up from 6.2% in 2M15 thanks to steeper reduction in cost of funds than in asset yield (60bps vs. 10bps). Banks have been cutting their time deposit rates on the back of weaker loan demand and are still taking the advantage before they start lowering the lending rates.

- Rising provisioning charges – the industry data shows the NPL level increased to 2.7% in January from 2.5% in December 2015 and we believe banks are experiencing the same pattern in February. This prompted banks to increase their provisioning charges, which rose 60% y-y. NPL is still expected to rise in the coming months, in particular from the retail commercial segment, and in terms of industry NPL comes mainly from mining related businesses. BBCA recorded the highest increase in provisioning charges at 429% y-y amid from the low base. PNBN came second with +262% y-y, while BJBR and BJTM bucked the trend with -62% and -39% y-y, as they have seen asset improvement. Provisioning level is now at 3.3% of total loans.

- Industry outlook and recommendation - We are still expecting rising problem loans in the coming months as a delayed effect from weak economic growth last year. Hence banks are still forecast to beef up their provisioning. We still rate Neutral on the sector, which is trading at 1.9x P/BV for 2016, with top picks on BBNI (TP Rp6,000) and BBTN (TP Rp2,100).

$BBRI $BBCA $BMRI $BBNI $BBTN $BBNI $PNBN
Bull
P H
Feb 24,2016 10:27:52
Bank Mandiri ($BMRI): 4Q15 results: Above consensus

§ 4Q15 earnings growth of 6.2% y-y and 23.5% q-q: $BMRI’s 4Q15 net profit reached IDR5.8tn, +6.2% y-y and +23.5% q-q, bringing full-year 2015 earnings to IDR20.3tn (+2.3% y-y), above consensus (106%) but in line with our expectation (102%).

§ Margin expansion on lower cost of funding and steady provisioning: $BMRI’s NIM expanded to 6.7% in 4Q15, up from 5.7% in 3Q15 and 5.9% a year earlier, mainly due to: (1) lower blended cost of funding from 3.66% in 3Q15 to 3.26% in 4Q15; (2) increased interest income on improved loan quality and; (3) steady contribution from high-yielding retail loans, which accounted for 32.7% of 2015 total loans. Gross NPLs improved to 2.6% at end-2015 from 2.8% at end-September, though still higher compared to 2.2% a year earlier. On a positive note, $BMRI debt restructuring inched up to IDR27.7tn (vs IDR26.4tn in 3Q15) or equivalent to 4.7% of total loans.

§ Loans rose 12.4% y-y while deposits moved at slower pace: On the balance sheet side, 2015 loans grew 12.4% y-y and 6.2% q-q, reaching IDR595tn. Corporate loans had dominated loan expansion, growing at 14.2% y-y and accounting for 33% of the total loan portfolio. This was followed by commercial and retail loans. In contrast, deposits moved at a slower pace, expanding by 6.3% y-y and 3.3% q-q, bringing the LDR to 87.7% at end-2015 vs 85.3% in 3Q15 and 82.9% in 2014.

2016 guidance; Sustainable earnings despite higher provisioning
In 2016, $BMRI may face some challenges under the new management, replacing Budi Sadikin at the end of his second term at the bank. We, however, believe that $BMRI is likely to continue delivering modest earnings growth despite the expected high provisioning to defend potential NPLs ahead. On the funding front, around IDR10tn worth of recap government bonds are due to mature in 2016, helping to improve liquidity. $BMRI’s government recap bonds accounted for 9% of 2015 earnings assets. Management has provided the following 2016 guidance: loan growth of 12-14% y-y (vs. Bahana: 11.6% y-y), efficiency ratio <45.0% (vs. 45.5%), LDR 85-87% (vs. 87%), gross NPL 2.5-3.0% (vs. 3.3%) and NIM 5.8-6.0% (vs. 5.5%). On the recent issue regarding lower industry NIM, Budi mentioned that the FSA needs to lower the risk free benchmark rate to as low as 5% to enable banks to lower their lending rates, in hope of competing with other banks in the region.

Rating: Cut to HOLD on limited upside potential; Retain TP
Despite recent pressure on the share price due to negative sentiment related to policy risks within the sector, $BMRI has outperformed the market in the past 3 months (exhibit 4). That said, the stock now has limited upside potential to our TP and, hence, we cut our rating from Buy to HOLD. However, at this stage we still maintain our 12M target price at IDR9,700, based on an end-2016F PBV of 1.7x. Downside risks to our call include worse-than-expected loan quality and margin pressure arising from loan remixes towards lower-yielding infrastructure-related project financing. Upside risks include accelerated micro loan growth at subsidiary Bank Mantap (a JV of Bank Mandiri [58.2% stake], PT POS [20.2%] and Taspen [20.2%].
Bear
P H
Feb 22,2016 15:43:47
Indonesian Banks

Rate cut and its repercussions
• Rate cuts announced; accommodative monetary policy aimed at boosting loan growth
• Short-term positive but repercussions of further regulatory action may be negative to banks
• Keeping our cautious stance; $BBCA and $BDMN remain our picks

What’s New
Rate cut announced. BI announced a reference rate (BI rate) cut of 25bps to 7.0%. In addition, BI also lowered the Rupiah reserve requirement by 100bps to 6.5% (effective March 2016). In line with this, deposit and lending facility rates were cut by 25bps to 5% and 7.5% respectively.

Impact and view:
Short-term positive… While this is positive in the short term for the banks, as banks tend to be able to reprice deposits faster than loans, there would be some ups deposits faster than loans ide potential to NIM, particularly for banks with a deposit mix skewed towards a higher time deposit composition (eg. $BDMN, $BBTN, $BTPN). The lower rates would also be positive to multi-finance companies from a funding cost perspective.

…but we are still keeping our cautious stance on the Indonesian banks because:

1) Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality are not over yet although our base case assumes stability in 2H16

2) OJK and BI have formed an ad hoc team to push down lending rates to below 10% below 10% and the team is expected to meet this task by end 2016. Among the possible approaches to this is a new OJK regulation to cap NIM at 4% with the aim to improve efficiency and competitiveness.

Should the NIM cap regulation be implemented this will be negative to banks as this would limit to a large extent, topline growth. Even if loan growth were to be boosted to 14% as intended by BI/OJK, it would be insufficient to maintain growth momentum for the net interest income line.

There have been noises in the past to lower lending rates for loans and also to impose a cap on NIM but none of these have so far materialised.

There were however two instances which the goverment had intervened to force down loan yields:
1) the KUR loan yield cap to 19% (2016: 9% chargeable rate to borrowers + government interest subsidy of 10%) - this affected $BBRI
2) lower loan yield for subsidised mortgage to 5% (from 7.5% previously) despite being partially subsidised by the Subsidized Mortgage Liquidity Facility Scheme/Fasilitas Likuiditas Pembiayaan Perumahan (FLPP) scheme - this affected $BBTN

Stock picks:
As we retain our cautious stance on the sector, our top picks remain $BBCA and $BDMN. Our pick on $BBCA lies on its defensiveness and strong financial indicators especially with respect to asset quality. $BDMN remains our pick for a turnaround story. Key risk to $BDMN however would be its inability to retain its high NIM (>8%) should the NIM cap be strictly implemented. This would mean $BDMN would have to significantly ramp up its strategy to lower funding costs quicker than planned.

Should the NIM cap be implemented, it would be negative to the SOE banks SOE banks SOE banks namely, $BMRI, $BBNI and $BBRI, as we are of the view that the government may impose these punitive recommendations on them before rolling it out to the entire sector.
Bull
P H
Feb 02,2016 23:25:39
A closer look at big banks’ unaudited FY15

Indonesia’s big banks have released their unaudited FY15 financial
results. Net profits are in line with our estimates and we expect no
negative surprises in NPL that might cause coverage ratios to drop
significantly upon the official FY15 announcement. Among the big
players, $BBRI remains our Top BUY for its attractive ROE.

$BBRI: Top BUY, TP at IDR13,000
$BBRI booked a IDR25t net profit (+7% YoY), in line with our IDR24.7t
forecast. Loans grew 13% YoY on strong expansion in the high-NIM micro
business. We expect NIM to remain close to 8% in 2016 on higher KUR
volume. $BBRI’s excellent risk control in the segment should allow the
bank to keep provisioning expense to a minimum while maintaining a
sufficient coverage ratio.

$BBCA: BUY, TP at IDR16,000
Net profit was IDR17.3t (+5% YoY), in line with our IDR18.2t forecast.
Loans grew 12% YoY and the bank had previously indicated that NPL
might tick up to as high as 1% by YE15. But even at this rate, $BBCA’s NPL
remains much below the industry’s average, and its rising provision
should ensure high coverage ratio. We maintain $BBCA as one of our top
BUYs in the sector for its stable earnings and asset quality.

$BMRI: HOLD, TP at IDR8,200
$BMRI’s net profit stood at IDR20t (+1% YoY), in line with our IDR19.8t
forecast. Nonetheless, we remain cautious on its 2016 outlook
considering $BMRI’s bigger exposure to corporate and SME business
compared to its peers and the fact that these segments are more
vulnerable to the recent slowdown in the economy. NPL is likely to
continue on an uptrend despite the bank’s aggressive loan restructuring
strategy in 2015.
Bull
P H
Feb 02,2016 23:25:39
A closer look at big banks’ unaudited FY15

Indonesia’s big banks have released their unaudited FY15 financial
results. Net profits are in line with our estimates and we expect no
negative surprises in NPL that might cause coverage ratios to drop
significantly upon the official FY15 announcement. Among the big
players, $BBRI remains our Top BUY for its attractive ROE.

$BBRI: Top BUY, TP at IDR13,000
$BBRI booked a IDR25t net profit (+7% YoY), in line with our IDR24.7t
forecast. Loans grew 13% YoY on strong expansion in the high-NIM micro
business. We expect NIM to remain close to 8% in 2016 on higher KUR
volume. $BBRI’s excellent risk control in the segment should allow the
bank to keep provisioning expense to a minimum while maintaining a
sufficient coverage ratio.

$BBCA: BUY, TP at IDR16,000
Net profit was IDR17.3t (+5% YoY), in line with our IDR18.2t forecast.
Loans grew 12% YoY and the bank had previously indicated that NPL
might tick up to as high as 1% by YE15. But even at this rate, $BBCA’s NPL
remains much below the industry’s average, and its rising provision
should ensure high coverage ratio. We maintain $BBCA as one of our top
BUYs in the sector for its stable earnings and asset quality.

$BMRI: HOLD, TP at IDR8,200
$BMRI’s net profit stood at IDR20t (+1% YoY), in line with our IDR19.8t
forecast. Nonetheless, we remain cautious on its 2016 outlook
considering $BMRI’s bigger exposure to corporate and SME business
compared to its peers and the fact that these segments are more
vulnerable to the recent slowdown in the economy. NPL is likely to
continue on an uptrend despite the bank’s aggressive loan restructuring
strategy in 2015.
Bull
P H
Feb 02,2016 23:25:38
A closer look at big banks’ unaudited FY15

Indonesia’s big banks have released their unaudited FY15 financial
results. Net profits are in line with our estimates and we expect no
negative surprises in NPL that might cause coverage ratios to drop
significantly upon the official FY15 announcement. Among the big
players, $BBRI remains our Top BUY for its attractive ROE.

$BBRI: Top BUY, TP at IDR13,000
$BBRI booked a IDR25t net profit (+7% YoY), in line with our IDR24.7t
forecast. Loans grew 13% YoY on strong expansion in the high-NIM micro
business. We expect NIM to remain close to 8% in 2016 on higher KUR
volume. $BBRI’s excellent risk control in the segment should allow the
bank to keep provisioning expense to a minimum while maintaining a
sufficient coverage ratio.

$BBCA: BUY, TP at IDR16,000
Net profit was IDR17.3t (+5% YoY), in line with our IDR18.2t forecast.
Loans grew 12% YoY and the bank had previously indicated that NPL
might tick up to as high as 1% by YE15. But even at this rate, $BBCA’s NPL
remains much below the industry’s average, and its rising provision
should ensure high coverage ratio. We maintain $BBCA as one of our top
BUYs in the sector for its stable earnings and asset quality.

$BMRI: HOLD, TP at IDR8,200
$BMRI’s net profit stood at IDR20t (+1% YoY), in line with our IDR19.8t
forecast. Nonetheless, we remain cautious on its 2016 outlook
considering $BMRI’s bigger exposure to corporate and SME business
compared to its peers and the fact that these segments are more
vulnerable to the recent slowdown in the economy. NPL is likely to
continue on an uptrend despite the bank’s aggressive loan restructuring
strategy in 2015.
Bull
P H
Jun 05,2015 00:51:45

New tax issue for banking sector?


A letter from the tax office stating that loan write-offs on customers without tax ID (NPWP) is non-tax-deductible raise a concern on how this might affect banks’ earnings. This and weak 2Q15 earnings expectation has put banks’ shares under selling pressure.

We cross check with several banks on the tax-related issue, and we conclude that the risk to earnings should be limited. This is because small debtors are exempted from this write-off policy, and based on tax office definition these are loans below IDR30m. Banks are already in compliance with BI regulation which requires tax ID for loans of IDR50m and above. So between tax office and BI’s policy, the potential non-tax-deductible issue might only arise for loans size between IDR30-50m. According to our channel check, loans in this category covers less than 10% of total portfolio. Also note that banks can still use government regulation PP No.130/2000 that define small debtors as those with loans below IDR350m.

Right now some banks are facing ongoing dispute with the tax office:
·BBTN: IDR36b tax dispute on written-off loans from 2010. BBTN just won the appeal last week.

·BBRI: IDR1.5t tax dispute on written-off loans from 2010. The amount has been fully paid and BBRI is currently waiting for the decision on their appeal.

·BMRI: IDR 1.3t tax dispute on written-off loans from 2010 and IDR1.1t tax dispute on tax discount based on shareholder composition. The amount has been fully paid.

·BBNI: IDR1.6t tax dispute on written-off loans from 2010 (half paid) and IDR620b tax dispute on tax discount based on shareholders composition (fully paid).

*Note that the 2010 case will not affect banks’ earnings.

Bull
P H
May 31,2015 12:41:25
Indonesia Top 10 companies by market cap

BBCA ASII BBRI HMSP UNVR TLKM BMRI BBNI PGAS GGRM

Bull
P H
Apr 09,2015 19:10:39
$BBRI bank paling menarik di banding dengan $BBCA, $BMRI, BBNI
Bull
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise.
BMRI
7,100.00 50.00 (0.71%)
Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk.
Last Update 02:54:10