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P H
Dec 21,2016 11:35:57

Global Mediacom ($BMTR): Public Expose Takeaways
 
Media: Indonesia
 
What’s New?
Global Mediacom ($BMTR) recently hosted a public expose at its Jakarta headquarter, led by Director David Audy and CFO Oerianto Guyandi. BMTR is the holding company of $MNCN (c.59% stake) and $MSKY (c.88% stake), with other new media businesses including MNC Playmedia (100% stake). We have a REDUCE rating on BMTR at a IDR550 TP (8% downside potential); preferring MNCN within the MNC Media group and SCMA within the Indonesia media sector. Below are the key takeaways.
 
MNCN: 7-10% revenue growth for 2017E, MNC Pictures IPO in 2017
Mgmt remains bullish on the outlook for FTA TV, with MNCN continuing to be the dominant market leader with 44.4% prime time market share as per 11M16 (up from 35.1% in 11M15). Mgmt expects the industry to grow between 5-10% in 2017, with MNCN’s top line to grow between 7-10%. Capex for 2017 should be notably lower at around USD25m (maintenance), down from USD50m in 2016E, and USD100m in 2015, post the peak capex cycle as construction of the new studio buildings has been completed. This will translate to significantly higher FCF, which could be used to partially pay off its existing USD250m debt and boost dividend. Mgmt is also confident of a smooth refinancing of a USD250m loan which will be due in Sep 2017. Meanwhile, it targets a MNC Pictures (content arm) IPO by the end of 2017, potentially merging Star Media Nusantara (Talent Agency) into MNC Pictures to enlarge the company size before offering 20-30% to the public.
 
MSKY: Succesful debt refinancing in November 2016  
Mgmt refinanced MSKY’s USD250m debt in Nov 2016 with a new USD190m loan, while paying off USD61m from the proceeds of MSKY’s 10% right issue. Mgmt said that MSKY currently has 2.5m PayTV subscribers with around a 65-70% market share, via 3 brands: Indovision, OkeVision, and TopTV. We have a cautious view on the Satellite PayTV industry amid intense competition and the absence of broadband bundling vs. the cable players.
 
MNC Playmedia: Hits 1m home-passed milestone
Mgmt said that Playmedia (Cable FTTH Broadband) has hit the 1m home-passed rollout in Dec 2016 with around 10% penetration (100,000 subscribers). It is aiming for a 2m home-passed rollout by the end of 2018E with penetration ranging from 10-20% (200k-400k subscribers). The current ARPU is around USD23-35/mth, with >50% of subscribers based in Jakarta.
 
Sky Vision Network (SVN): Looking to sell 10-30%
SVN will be the new holding company for MSKY and Playmedia, aiming to be Indonesia’s leading player for both Satellite PayTV and Cable Broadband+Pay TV. Mgmt is currently in talks with 2 global investors for SVN, planning to raise up to USD300m by offering a 10-30% stake via a strategic partnership or IPO. Successful monetisation of SVN will be a key catalyst for BMTR, in our view, to fund its future expansion as well as de-leverage the balance sheet.

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P H
Dec 02,2016 13:00:37

Indonesia Media: TV broadcasters: Value emergence
 
Consumer Discretionary: Indonesia
 
Content is King, Distribution is Queen: OVERWEIGHT Indonesia Media
In line with higher GDP growth of 5.3% in 2017E, we are OVERWEIGHT the Indonesia Media sector, particularly as we see a rebound in adex next year (+10% yoy). Along with the sector’s attractive valuation (2017E: 16x PER, +16% EPS growth), we have a preference for the FTA-TV Platforms (advertising-based, cyclical), but adopt a bearish view on the Pay-TV space (subscription-based) on intensifying competition. We also like companies with good content assets, which should play a crucial role in the transition phase from traditional distribution platforms towards online in the medium-longer term. Thus, we have BUY calls on SCMA and MNCN, and initiate on LINK with a HOLD rating, and on highly-geared BMTR and VIVA at REDUCE. Downside risks: Macro downturn, weak IDR and online cannibalisation. This report marks the transfer of coverage of Indonesia Media to Henry Wibowo.
 
TV remains king of Ad Pie with positive adex growth
Indonesia’s ad industry is a USD2bn market, growing at an 8% CAGR over 2014-17E, and one of the most underpenetrated in the region (0.2% of GDP, vs. 0.5% for Asia), on our estimates. TV is the best medium for advertisers to seek audience eyeballs, making up 64% of the ad pie (stable from 2010), followed by Print 19% (down from 27% in 2010), Online 12% (up from 1% in 2010), Outdoor 3% and Radio 2%. TV’s muted growth in 2015 was fueled by a macro slowdown (GDP hit a 6-year low at 4.67% in 2Q15), not from online cannibalisation, with TV adex expected to rebound to 8%/10% in 2016/17E.
 
FTA TV: Oligopolistic market with high barriers to entry
With the National FTA TV license recently renewed in October 2016 for another 10 years (2016-26), the existing top-4 big groups will continue to dominate >95% of the TV market, in our view. Hary Tanoe’s MNCN is the market leader (37.1% audience share), followed by Eddy Sariaatmadja’s SCMA (25.6%), Bakrie’s VIVA (18.6%), Chairul Tanjung’s Trans (15.1%).   
 
Overlooked high-value content assets
By 2020, we believe SCMA’s (IEG & Screenplay) and MNCN’s (MNC Pictures & Sinemart) content assets can be worth USD700m/USD1bn, respectively, vs. currently underappreciated at almost 0; this would provide a boost to existing market caps of 30-50%. In our view, unlocking content value will be a key catalyst medium term. Distribution platforms continue to evolve over time (Radio to TV to Online), but content should remain king as a core value driver, especially in Indonesia where the local language is a high barrier.

$SCMA $MNCN $LINK $BMTR $VIVA

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P H
Dec 01,2016 23:19:59

PWON to be in MSCI in December 2016

Pakuwon Jati ($PWON) has been included in MSCI Global Index for the next 6 months to replace Global Mediacom ($BMTR). Previously, PWON was listed in the MSCI Small Caps Index. (Bareksa.com)

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P H
May 03,2016 08:14:55
BERITA SAHAM 03 MEI 2016



1.PERTAMBANGAN

1.1.MEDC : Medco Tingkatkan Saham di Blok APT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk menaikkan sahamnya menjadi 58,33 persen di lapangan gas Blok A di Kabupaten Aceh Timur, Aceh, melalui akuisisi saham Japex di Blok A 16,66 persen. (KOMPAS)

1.2.Suplai dan Penyerapan Minyak Mentah Global Mulai Stabil 2017. (TEMPO)

1.3.PGN Bangun 24 Ribu Jargas di Surabaya Senilai Rp285,2 Miliar. (TEMPO)

1.4.ELSA : PT Elnusa Tbk bakal bekerjasama dengan Chevron dan PT Pertamina untuk mengembangkan pembangkit listrik tenaga flare gas. Nantinya, kedua perusahaan tersebut akan menyediakan flare gas dan perseroan menjadi operator pembangkit listriknya. (TENDER INDONESIA)



2.MAKRO EKONOMI

2.1.Sejalan dengan perkiraan Bank Indonesia, Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) pada April 2016 mencatat deflasi sebesar 0,45% (mtm). Deflasi IHK terutama disumbang oleh deflasi komponen barang yang diatur Pemerintah (administered prices) dan komponen bahan makanan bergejolak (volatile foods). Dengan perkembangan tersebut, inflasi IHK secara tahunan (yoy) mencapai 3,60% (yoy) serta berada dalam kisaran sasaran inflasi Bank Indonesia, yaitu sebesar 4%±1% (yoy).



3.PROPERTI

2.1.LPCK : PT Lippo Cikarang Tbk. segera meluncurkan menara apartemen keenam yakni Newport Park di proyek andalannya Orange County. (TENDER INDONESIA)



4.TELEKOMUNIKASI - MEDIA

4.1.XL Kaji Perluas Kerjasama dengan MNC Grup di Pasar Broadband. (INDO TELKO)

4.2.BMTR : PT Global Mediacom Tbk. akan mengeluarkan maksimal 2% saham perseroan untuk program EMSOP (maksimal 283,97 juta saham perseroan). Dividen tunai final sebesar Rp5 per saham. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

4.3.MNCN : PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk. akan mengeluarkan maksimal 2% saham perseroan untuk program EMSOP (maksimal 283,97 juta saham perseroan). Dividen tunai final sebesar Rp42 per saham atas tahun buku 2015. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

4.4.FR PEFINDO : JASUINDO TIGA PERKASA, TBK (JTPE - 29 APRIL 2016)

Target Harga Terendah 594
Target Harga Tertinggi  667

SEE MORE
http://www.idx.co.id/Portals/0/StaticData/NewsAndAnnouncement/ANNOUNCEMENTSTOCK/From_EREP/201605/f3592aac8f_9eca5c0d79.pdf



5.KUMPULAN PAKET KEBIJAKAN I-XII

http://www.esdm.go.id/gpr/paket-kebijakan.html



 -----------------------------------------


(DISCLAIMER ON)

$MEDC $PGAS $ELSA $LPCK $EXCL $MNCN $BMTR JTPE
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BMTR
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Global Mediacom Tbk.
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