Banks - Bumpy But Still Promising
We re-initiate coverage on Indonesia banks with an OVERWEIGHT. Higher government spending should translate into a 5.1% GDP growth pick-up and stronger loan growth of 14.3%. We forecast for earnings to grow a stronger 8.7% as credit costs stabilise at 161bps. Our Top Picks are BBCA (strong asset quality and least vulnerable to regulatory risks) and BBTN, as it would benefit most from the Government’s subsidised mortgage scheme.
¨ Reasonable valuations on higher GDP growth. According to our economists, 2016 would be a better year, supported by higher government spending in 2M16 to IDR5.4trn (+306% YoY) and a GDP growth pick-up to 5.1%. Yet with such potential, Indonesian banks under our coverage are trading at current P/BV multiple of 2.2x 2016F P/BV vs a historical mean of 2.9x and -2SD of 2.1x. We believe the multiple de-rating reflects the slide in ROAE to 17.6% for 2016F from c.25% in 2010 as loan growth slowed and credit costs spiked.
¨ Two sides of the knife. The Financial Services Authority (OJK) has introduced changes/revised guidelines to spur banks to lend more, but its renewed lower lending rates push has unnerved investors. We believe an immediate lending rate cuts to single digits directive is unlikely, as this has a detrimental impact on earnings. We expect it to take indirect measures that provide banks room to lower lending rates. March’s 125bps cut in maximum time deposit rates was the first move in this direction. We believe state-owned enterprise (SOE) banks would be most impacted, as the OJK would expect them to take the lead.
¨ Lower margins outlook. Lower caps for time deposit (TD) rates would mitigate the policy rate cuts (75bps YTD and another 25bps expected by end-2016), resulting in a moderate 7-12bps decline in net interest margins (NIMs). We expect Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) and Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN) to be most affected, while Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) are expected to see some uptick in NIMs.
¨ Smoother assets quality ride. Stronger economic growth and lower interest rates, we believe, would ease pressure on asset quality in 2016. We expect non-performing loans (NPLs) to trend higher in 1H16 and peak in 2Q16. Among banks under our coverage, we believe Bank Mandiri (given its loan portfolio size) would need a longer time to improve asset quality. We expect sector gross NPL ratio to edge down to 2% by Dec 2016 (Dec 2015: 2.1%) with stable 161bps credit costs and improvements in loan loss coverage to 155.2% by end-2016.
¨ Wholesale funding as additional liquidity source. As the system loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) touched 90.9% in January, banks are likely to tap the wholesale market for funding, given more affordable benchmark rates and longer maturity profiles. Negotiable certificates of deposits, bonds and medium-term notes are the preferred wholesale instruments of the three big SOE banks.
¨ Bank Central Asia (BBCA) and BBTN are our Top Picks. Given regulatory risks and asset quality concerns, BBCA is our Top Pick for big-cap banks. Its premium valuation (3.0x 2016F P/BV vs peers’ 1.8x average) is justified as its NIMs are least vulnerable to government intervention risks while assets quality is superior vis-à-vis peers. BBTN is our small-cap Top Pick as we anticipate ROAE expansion and asset quality improvements in the next two years.$BBCA $BMRI $BBRI $BBNI $BBTN $BTPN $PNBN $BDMN $BNGA