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P H
Sep 06,2017 09:12:40

Pasar Hari Ini

Ekonomi :

- Pemerintah akan memacu belanja di 2H17 dan memastikan tidak ada penghematan anggaran di akhir tahun dalam rangka menggerakkan perekonomian. Agar belanja tidak berlebihan (tidak terjadi defisit di atas 2.9%), pemerintah akan mengevaluasi penerimaan dan pengeluaran setiap bulan. Sampai Agust'17, penerimaan pajak tumbuh 10.2% YoY namun hanya mencapai 53% dari target APNB-P 2017. Ada sentimen positif terutama untuk sektor Infrastruktur

Berita penting di koran pagi ini :

- Pemerintah menargetkan perjanjian pinjaman (dari Jepang) untuk proyek pelabuhan Patimban senilai Rp13.7 triliun akan ditandatangani pada Sept'17. Setelah perjanjian tersebut selesai, lelang kontraktor dan konsultan dapat dilaksanakan pada Okt'17. Ada sentimen positif untuk SSIA karena SSIA punya kawasan industri Subang dan sedang mengusulkan ruas tol Patimban - Subang

- $PGAS (-) menurunkan estimasi laba bersih 2017 menjadi Rp2 triliun dari awalnya Rp3.7 triliun seiring dengan banyaknya kendala yang dihadapi seperti penurunan volume distribusi gas, penurunan harga gas dan isu penggabungan usaha dengan Pertamina

- $BTPN (+) melanjutkan transformasi usaha menjadi bank digital agar lebih efisien setelah sejak 2013 mengembangkan platform bank digital (BTPN Wow!) dan Jenius sejak 2016. Transformasi tersebut tidak merubah fokus untuk melayani masyarakat menengah bawah terutama pensiunan

- $CTRA (+) menargetkan Marketing Sales senilai Rp1 triliun dari proyek klaster terbaru di Surabaya (Northwest Hill) sebanyak 500 unit rumah tapak dan 100 unit ruko

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P H
Dec 01,2016 23:06:24

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional ($BTPN): Profitable Bank With Appealing Valuation

BTPN would continue to focus on the small ticket size segment with high yields by tapping into the productive poor and iSME loans. To manage a further decline in loan yields, it also plans to enter the smaller ticket size segment called picco loan with maximum 3-months tenure. On funding, it would benefit from its branchless banking products to enlarge its CASA deposits by end-2017, in our view. Valuation is attractive at 0.9x 2017F P/BV with potential dividend distribution, as we rollover our valuation to 2017F compared to 1.06x P/BV of medium-sized banks. Upgrade to BUY (from Neutral) with a new IDR3,400 TP (from IDR2,900, 22% upside).

¨ Aims to maintain its high loan yield segment. Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN) would maintain its focus on the high yield loan segment to maintain its superior NIM level. Its micro lending is facing a difficult period due to close competition with the People's Business Credit (KUR) programme. The productive poor and iSME loan segments are its current growth engine. Aside from the high growth of the iSME loan, BTPN also plans to launch new lending product with short-term tenure (maximum three months) and small ticket size (IDR500,000-1m or c.USD37-74) called picco loan. We expect this loan segment would compensate it for the lower loan yield from iSME loan. All in, loan yield would dip to 20.5% in FY17 (FY16: 21.2%) based on our model.

¨ On progress to reprofile its funding mixture, since it has been BTPN’s challenge due to the domination of expensive instruments, ie time deposits (TD) and bonds. As such, amid aggressive policy rate cuts by total 150bps this year, blended cost of funds (CoF) has significantly fallen to 6.7% in 3Q16 (vs 3Q15: 8.1%). Given such sharp volatility in its funding cost, management has continued to invest in branchless banking products to provide stronger base for its current account, saving account (CASA) deposits. We thus project that CASA deposits would significantly improve to 16% of customer deposits by end-2017 (end-2016: 13.5% of customer deposits).

¨ Potential dividend distribution to boost return on average equity (ROAE), as BTPN’s management has had zero dividend payout policy since 2008 to maintain an ample capital position. However, due to concerns from most investors’ that its ROAE would continue to decline, management is considering to distribute dividend as the most reasonable solution. We moderately anticipate a 20% payout ratio only as a one-off corporate action. This translates to 12.7% ROAE and 24.3% capital adequacy ratio (CAR) in 2016F. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that for every 10% payout ratio, it would elevate BTPN’s ROAE by 10bps while CAR compressed by 28bps.

¨ Upgrade to BUY, new IDR3,400TP derived from a GGM-based valuation. Our TP implies 1.1x 2017F P/BV multiple (-1SD of its historical mean). BTPN’s current valuation is attractive compared to average medium-sized banks of 1.06x P/BV. The downside risks are:

i. Tight liquidity within the banking system would trigger a higher blended CoF;

ii. Lower KUR lending rate would further affect its micro lending;

iii. More banks to aggressively tap the pension loan segment due to its attractive yields and lower NPLs would reduce BTPN’s market share. (Eka Savitri)

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P H
Nov 29,2016 10:06:12

Bank Tabungan Pensiun Nasional (BTPN) WoW agents markets e-commerce

BTPN WoW agents will not only provide branchless banking services but will also be allowed to do online sales through KUDO
Technology Indonesia. Senior Vice President Sales Management Head of Bank BTPN states that the collaboration will help
improve the welfare of BTPN WoW agents. The first pilot project will be conducted in Semarang and the surrounding area.
(Bisnis Indonesia)

$BTPN

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P H
Jun 04,2016 18:47:47
Bank Negara Indonesia : Key Takeaways From Bojonegoro Site Visit
 
Last weekend, BBNI took us with several foreign and local investors on a site visit to Bojonegoro, which had the highest GDP growth of 13.3% in the country last year. By leveraging its close connection with the local government, BBNI is able to tap into the medium-size enterprise and corporate loan segments in the region. We maintain our BUY call and GGM-derived TP of IDR6,200 (34% upside). The stock is currently trading at 1.0x 2016F P/BV (-1SD of its historical mean).

¨ Support from local government. Bojonegoro recorded 13.3% GDP growth in 2015, thanks to its abundant oil & gas reserves. Amid lower commodity prices, the local government has set the minimum wages for villages at only IDR1m (below the minimum wages of IDR1.3m for its city) to stimulate growth in surrounding villages and to attract more local and foreign investors in the non-commodity sector. The local government has also simplified the permit application process for investors under one roof in an effort to achieve more sustainable GDP growth going forward.

¨ More players in local banking landscape. Given its high GDP growth, more banks have opened branches in Bojonegoro. Apart from state-owned enterprise (SoE) banks and regional bank (Bank Jatim), these include private banks eg Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN), Panin (PNBN) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA)). This has led to increased competition in the area. Specifically, we think that Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) is well-positioned due to its strong relationship with the local Government and business owners.

¨ Leveraging its relationship. During our site visit, we met up with one of BBNI’s corporate borrowers – the biggest Wallet bird nest producer in the area. The company started out managing bird nests but has now expanded to the downstream business by producing bird nest bottled beverage using recycled water and by-products of its upstream bird nests. However, we think its downstream business is still at an early stage and would only be profitable in three years’ time at the earliest due to the small market for specialised (bird nest) bottled beverage. Moreover, with the estimated ASP of IDR35,000, its product is relatively expensive in the bottled beverage market given that most Indonesians prefer tea bottled beverage. The second BBNI borrower we visited was a local batik producer, who emphasised that her business is a side job to supplement her full-time employment as a junior high school teacher. This falls under BBNI’s small business segment due its <IDR5bn loan size. On the other hand, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) caters more towards loan sizes of <IDR100m, while Bank Mandiri (BMRI) taps more into the national-scale corporate segment.

¨ Maintain BUY and GGM-derived TP of IDR6,200, which implies 1.3x 2016F P/BV. The stock is currently trading at 1x 2016F P/BV (-1SD of its historical mean). Key risks to our call are:
i. Government intervention risk;
ii. Lower-than-expected GDP growth that may worsen its assets quality. (Eka Savitri)

$BBNI $BJTM $PNBN $BTPN $BBCA $BMRI $BBRI

Bull
P H
Apr 20,2016 12:13:49
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional: 1Q16 results

- BTPN reported 1Q16 net income of Rp429bn, -11% yoy/+31% qoq, accounting for 21% of FY16’s consensus and 26% of our expectations. Decline in net income was driven by increase in operating expenses of +18% yoy.

- Loan growth +11% yoy/+1% qoq and deposit growth +14% yoy/+2% qoq. Deposit growth was driven by growth in demand deposits of +37% yoy, followed by time deposits of +15% yoy, and savings deposit of 5% yoy, bringing 1Q16 CASA to 12.9% vs. 1Q15 of 13.8%. Meanwhile, 1Q16’s LDR stood at 96.0% vs. 98.2% in 1Q15.

- 1Q16 NIM improved to 11.1% vs. 1Q15 of 10.8%. Improvement in NIM was driven by decline in cost of fund of 36bps while asset yield only declined 17bps in the past one year.

- 1Q16 cost to income ratio deteriorated to 62.8% vs. 1Q15 of 57.7%. Deteriorating cost to income ratio was mainly driven by increase in operating expenses of +18% yoy, which we believe is caused by BTPN’s ongoing investments to its digital banking.

- 1Q16 NPL remained flat at 0.7%, while provision expenses grew by +6% yoy/+25% qoq. Meanwhile, 1Q16 restructured loans slightly deteriorated to 2.5% vs. 1Q15 of 2.4%, however remained stable compared to 4Q15.

- Maintain sell with TP of Rp2,200 trading at FY16 PBV of 1.0x.

$BTPN
Bear
P H
Apr 20,2016 10:45:20
Sediakan Layanan Mobile Money, BTPN Gandeng Telkomsel

Kompas.com memberitakan  PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk (BTPN) bekerja sama dengan Telkomsel mengembangkan layanan keuangan terhubung TCASH-BTPN Wow!. Ini merupakan layanan yang menghubungkan mobile money TCASH dengan rekening tabungan BTPN Wow! yang merupakan layanan berbasis telepon genggam.
Interkonektivas kedua produk menjadikan layanan keuangan terhubung ini lebih lengkap yang mengkombinasikan kekuatan produk antara jaringan telekomunikasi dengan jaringan perbankan.
Kerja sama ini merupakan wujud nyata komitmen Telkomsel dan BTPN untuk membantu pemerintah dalam Gerakan Nasional Non Tunai (GNTT) dan percepatan keuangan inklusif di Indonesia.

"Kerja sama strategis dengan Telkomsel ini sejalan dengan komitmen BTPN untuk mengambil peran penting dalam mewujudkan keuangan yang inklusif di Indonesia. Kami meyakini kerja sama ini akan meningkatkan jumlah masyarakat yang belum tersentuh jasa layanan keuangan formal," ujar Jerry Ng, Direktur Utama BTPN dalam siaran persnya, Senin (18/4).
Ke depan, kata dia, BTPN aan terus membuka peluang kerja sama strategis untuk mempercepat pencapaian visi keuangan inklusif di Indonesia.

Melalui layanan keuangan terhubung TCASH-BTPN Wow! pelanggan dapat menikmati berbagai fitur keuangan, seperti uang elektronik, pembayaran mobile, rekening tabungan yang aman dengan bunga bulanan, tanpa dikenakan biaya administrasi dan saldo minimum.
Tidak cuma itu, fitur seamless registration yang tersedia di layanan ini akan memungkinkan pelanggan mendapatkan layanan finansial dengan biaya rendah. Fitur ini juga memudahkan pengaturan dana milik pelanggan yang disimpan dalam bentuk TCASH ataupun di dalam rekening BTPN Wow!.

$BTPN $TLKM
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P H
Apr 20,2016 09:41:05
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN) - 1Q16 Inline Results

Key highlights on BTPN’s 1Q16 result:
¨ Net interest income were 24% of our and consensus forecast.

¨ Net income was 26%/21% of our/consensus expectation as we already project higher opex growth and higher provisions.

¨ Asset quality remained benign with slight uptick by 9bps to 0.75% gross NPL ratio from 1Q15’s figure and manageable credit cost at 144bps.

 What to expect this year
¨ Margin would compressed to 10.9% in our opinion this year due to the rebalanced loan mix towards commercial loan segment (iSME loan) that offers lower yield compared to other loan segment (pension, micro, productive poor).

¨ High cost-to-income ratio (CIR) as the bank would continue to heavily invest in new business lines, ie: BTPN Wow! initiatives (branchless banking product) partnering with Telkomsel and commercial loan segment (iSME loan) . We expect cost to income ratio this year of 64.1%

 ¨ Asset quality would remain manageable with credit cost range of 150-170bps. Anticipate tick-up in gross NPL ratio to 0.88% with credit cost of 154bps this year.

¨ Maintained our earnings projection of IDR1.6trn, far lower than consensus’ forecast of IDR2.0trn.

$BTPN
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P H
Apr 20,2016 09:38:58
Banks - Bumpy But Still Promising
 
We re-initiate coverage on Indonesia banks with an OVERWEIGHT. Higher government spending should translate into a 5.1% GDP growth pick-up and stronger loan growth of 14.3%. We forecast for earnings to grow a stronger 8.7% as credit costs stabilise at 161bps. Our Top Picks are BBCA (strong asset quality and least vulnerable to regulatory risks) and BBTN, as it would benefit most from the Government’s subsidised mortgage scheme.

¨ Reasonable valuations on higher GDP growth. According to our economists, 2016 would be a better year, supported by higher government spending in 2M16 to IDR5.4trn (+306% YoY) and a GDP growth pick-up to 5.1%. Yet with such potential, Indonesian banks under our coverage are trading at current P/BV multiple of 2.2x 2016F P/BV vs a historical mean of 2.9x and -2SD of 2.1x. We believe the multiple de-rating reflects the slide in ROAE to 17.6% for 2016F from c.25% in 2010 as loan growth slowed and credit costs spiked.

¨ Two sides of the knife. The Financial Services Authority (OJK) has introduced changes/revised guidelines to spur banks to lend more, but its renewed lower lending rates push has unnerved investors. We believe an immediate lending rate cuts to single digits directive is unlikely, as this has a detrimental impact on earnings. We expect it to take indirect measures that provide banks room to lower lending rates. March’s 125bps cut in maximum time deposit rates was the first move in this direction. We believe state-owned enterprise (SOE) banks would be most impacted, as the OJK would expect them to take the lead.

¨ Lower margins outlook. Lower caps for time deposit (TD) rates would mitigate the policy rate cuts (75bps YTD and another 25bps expected by end-2016), resulting in a moderate 7-12bps decline in net interest margins (NIMs). We expect Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) and Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN) to be most affected, while Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) are expected to see some uptick in NIMs.

¨ Smoother assets quality ride. Stronger economic growth and lower interest rates, we believe, would ease pressure on asset quality in 2016. We expect non-performing loans (NPLs) to trend higher in 1H16 and peak in 2Q16. Among banks under our coverage, we believe Bank Mandiri (given its loan portfolio size) would need a longer time to improve asset quality. We expect sector gross NPL ratio to edge down to 2% by Dec 2016 (Dec 2015: 2.1%) with stable 161bps credit costs and improvements in loan loss coverage to 155.2% by end-2016.

¨ Wholesale funding as additional liquidity source. As the system loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) touched 90.9% in January, banks are likely to tap the wholesale market for funding, given more affordable benchmark rates and longer maturity profiles. Negotiable certificates of deposits, bonds and medium-term notes are the preferred wholesale instruments of the three big SOE banks.

¨ Bank Central Asia (BBCA) and BBTN are our Top Picks. Given regulatory risks and asset quality concerns, BBCA is our Top Pick for big-cap banks. Its premium valuation (3.0x 2016F P/BV vs peers’ 1.8x average) is justified as its NIMs are least vulnerable to government intervention risks while assets quality is superior vis-à-vis peers. BBTN is our small-cap Top Pick as we anticipate ROAE expansion and asset quality improvements in the next two years.

$BBCA $BMRI $BBRI $BBNI $BBTN $BTPN $PNBN $BDMN $BNGA
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P H
Mar 04,2016 09:11:29
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan ($BTPN): Jan-16 results

- BTPN reported Jan-16 net income of Rp122bn, -18% y-y, accounting for 6% of
ours and consensus’s expectations. Decline in net profit was driven by increase
in provision expense and operating expense.

- Loan growth +11% y-y/ 0% m-m, deposit growth +15% y-y/-2% m-m. Strong
deposit growth was mainly driven by growth in demand deposits of +33% y-y
and time deposits of +16% y-y causing CASA to decline from 14.2% in Jan-15 to
12.9% in Jan-16. Meanwhile, Jan-16 LDR stood at 98.8% vs. 101.8% in Jan-15.

- NIMs deteriorated to 9.2% in Jan-16 from 9.7% in Jan-15 and 9.5% in Dec-15.
Decline in NIMs was due to slower net interest income growth coupled with
strong time deposit growth.

- Provision expense increased by +10% y-y/+19% m-m totaling to Rp70bn.
Estimated write-offs in Jan-16 totaled Rp54bn while provisioning to total loans
remain stable at 0.9%.

- Cost to income ratio deteriorated to 60.2% in Jan-16 compared to Jan-15 of
54.2%. However Jan-16’s cost to income ratio showed significant improvement
compared to Dec-15’s ratio of 69.5%. Increase in cost to income ratio was driven
by increase in operating expenses of +14% y-y.

- Maintain Neutral with TP of Rp3,000.
Bear
P H
Feb 22,2016 15:43:44
Indonesian Banks

Rate cut and its repercussions
• Rate cuts announced; accommodative monetary policy aimed at boosting loan growth
• Short-term positive but repercussions of further regulatory action may be negative to banks
• Keeping our cautious stance; $BBCA and $BDMN remain our picks

What’s New
Rate cut announced. BI announced a reference rate (BI rate) cut of 25bps to 7.0%. In addition, BI also lowered the Rupiah reserve requirement by 100bps to 6.5% (effective March 2016). In line with this, deposit and lending facility rates were cut by 25bps to 5% and 7.5% respectively.

Impact and view:
Short-term positive… While this is positive in the short term for the banks, as banks tend to be able to reprice deposits faster than loans, there would be some ups deposits faster than loans ide potential to NIM, particularly for banks with a deposit mix skewed towards a higher time deposit composition (eg. $BDMN, $BBTN, $BTPN). The lower rates would also be positive to multi-finance companies from a funding cost perspective.

…but we are still keeping our cautious stance on the Indonesian banks because:

1) Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality Concerns on asset quality are not over yet although our base case assumes stability in 2H16

2) OJK and BI have formed an ad hoc team to push down lending rates to below 10% below 10% and the team is expected to meet this task by end 2016. Among the possible approaches to this is a new OJK regulation to cap NIM at 4% with the aim to improve efficiency and competitiveness.

Should the NIM cap regulation be implemented this will be negative to banks as this would limit to a large extent, topline growth. Even if loan growth were to be boosted to 14% as intended by BI/OJK, it would be insufficient to maintain growth momentum for the net interest income line.

There have been noises in the past to lower lending rates for loans and also to impose a cap on NIM but none of these have so far materialised.

There were however two instances which the goverment had intervened to force down loan yields:
1) the KUR loan yield cap to 19% (2016: 9% chargeable rate to borrowers + government interest subsidy of 10%) - this affected $BBRI
2) lower loan yield for subsidised mortgage to 5% (from 7.5% previously) despite being partially subsidised by the Subsidized Mortgage Liquidity Facility Scheme/Fasilitas Likuiditas Pembiayaan Perumahan (FLPP) scheme - this affected $BBTN

Stock picks:
As we retain our cautious stance on the sector, our top picks remain $BBCA and $BDMN. Our pick on $BBCA lies on its defensiveness and strong financial indicators especially with respect to asset quality. $BDMN remains our pick for a turnaround story. Key risk to $BDMN however would be its inability to retain its high NIM (>8%) should the NIM cap be strictly implemented. This would mean $BDMN would have to significantly ramp up its strategy to lower funding costs quicker than planned.

Should the NIM cap be implemented, it would be negative to the SOE banks SOE banks SOE banks namely, $BMRI, $BBNI and $BBRI, as we are of the view that the government may impose these punitive recommendations on them before rolling it out to the entire sector.
Bull
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise.
BTPN
2,880.00 50.00 (1.89%)
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasiona
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