Sign up to SahamTalk to save a watchlist for easy access to your favorite stocks
Handle
N/A
Handle
 
P H
Sep 06,2017 09:12:40

Pasar Hari Ini

Ekonomi :

- Pemerintah akan memacu belanja di 2H17 dan memastikan tidak ada penghematan anggaran di akhir tahun dalam rangka menggerakkan perekonomian. Agar belanja tidak berlebihan (tidak terjadi defisit di atas 2.9%), pemerintah akan mengevaluasi penerimaan dan pengeluaran setiap bulan. Sampai Agust'17, penerimaan pajak tumbuh 10.2% YoY namun hanya mencapai 53% dari target APNB-P 2017. Ada sentimen positif terutama untuk sektor Infrastruktur

Berita penting di koran pagi ini :

- Pemerintah menargetkan perjanjian pinjaman (dari Jepang) untuk proyek pelabuhan Patimban senilai Rp13.7 triliun akan ditandatangani pada Sept'17. Setelah perjanjian tersebut selesai, lelang kontraktor dan konsultan dapat dilaksanakan pada Okt'17. Ada sentimen positif untuk SSIA karena SSIA punya kawasan industri Subang dan sedang mengusulkan ruas tol Patimban - Subang

- $PGAS (-) menurunkan estimasi laba bersih 2017 menjadi Rp2 triliun dari awalnya Rp3.7 triliun seiring dengan banyaknya kendala yang dihadapi seperti penurunan volume distribusi gas, penurunan harga gas dan isu penggabungan usaha dengan Pertamina

- $BTPN (+) melanjutkan transformasi usaha menjadi bank digital agar lebih efisien setelah sejak 2013 mengembangkan platform bank digital (BTPN Wow!) dan Jenius sejak 2016. Transformasi tersebut tidak merubah fokus untuk melayani masyarakat menengah bawah terutama pensiunan

- $CTRA (+) menargetkan Marketing Sales senilai Rp1 triliun dari proyek klaster terbaru di Surabaya (Northwest Hill) sebanyak 500 unit rumah tapak dan 100 unit ruko

hide
P H
Jan 23,2017 15:30:10

Indonesia Property
Another Day of Sun

Maintain POSITIVE; Top BUYs: $BSDE, $CTRA, $BEST
Maintain POSITIVE view on Indonesia’s property sector despite disappointing pre-sales in 2016. We’re confident there’s still room for pre-sales to grow in 2017 even though we don’t expect any further interest rate cuts. Factors that support our view are the stable currency and interest rate from rising commodity prices and benign inflation. On aggregate, we are looking at +23% YoY pre-sales growth in FY17, to be mainly driven by low-middle residential segment. We are also positive on industrial estates from tax amnesty inflow and strong inquiries from corporations. Top BUYs: BSDE, CTRA and BEST.

Prefer mass market residential segment
Even with the current interest rate, major banks are still offering competitive single-digit mortgage rates. We believe this is sufficient to support affordability of the mass market residential segment. Full-year impact of LTV relaxation in 2017 will also help to encourage demand for this segment. On the other hand, we are still wary about the middle-high residential and office segments.

Positive outlook for industrial estates
We highlight industrial estates’ notable steady growth in quarterly sales volume in 2016. Several developers mentioned they have been receiving many inquiries from both foreign and domestic corporations which have boosted their confidence on 2017 pre-sales. Domestic corporations have benefitted from their participation in the tax amnesty program, allowing them to invest their assets through industrial land.

Valuation and risks to our view
Sector currently trades at -2SD of the average 1-year forward P/BV and a discount to RNAV. Risks to our positive view on the sector include political risk, uncertainty in global economic outlook, interest rate hike, regulatory risk, currency volatility and inability to increase land banks.

hide
P H
Dec 14,2016 08:06:02

Property (Overweight), ‘Tis The Season To Be Jolly About Mortgages
 
Our ground checks reveal that commercial banks are stopping their promotional mortgage rates. However, as they are aiming for double-digit mortgage growth rates next year, we expect them to re-introduce packages at lower rates as well – since the rates do not yet reflect the latest cut made by BI in Oct. Note that the combination of the relaxation of LTV thresholds and lower mortgage rates following the BI rate cut during 3Q16 resulted in a shifting of consumer preferences back to obtaining financing for properties via a mortgage.
¨ Promo on hold, but... we learnt that some banks are stopping their promotional mortgage packages this month. The current normal mortgage rate has a fixed interest rate of 9.5-10.25% for one year. Bank Central Asia (BCA) ($BBCA) is still offering the lowest mortgage rate with its latest Fix & Cap promotion, ie 7.99% pa fixed interest for the first three years and capped for a further three years at 8.99% pa. This is almost 50bps lower than what was offered in its previous Fix & Cap promotion. However, we believe IND Banks would continue to introduce lower mortgage rates in the future as:

i. Banks are aiming for double-digit growth in their mortgage segments in 2017. BCA and Bank CIMB Niaga ($BNGA) are aiming for 12% and 9-10% mortgage loan growth respectively;

ii. Based on research by rumah123.com, the most important factor in buying properties is the Bank Indonesia (BI) rate. Most buyers still utilise mortgage facilities to purchase properties. This is also reflected in the trend shifting back towards taking a mortgage as a payment method during 3Q16. This is due to a combination of the relaxation of the loan-to-value (LTV) thresholds and lower mortgage rates following BI’s rate cut.

As such, we expect banks to start re-introducing their respective mortgages at lower rates earliest by Jan 2017. Their current mortgage rates do not yet reflect the latest BI rate cut, which was made in October. Note, also, that presales activities in December are more moderate.

¨ Maintain OVERWEIGHT. We keep our OVERWEIGHT rating on the sector, as we expect a better outlook in 2017 as the following factors have already been priced in:

i. All the catalysts that include the tax amnesty;

ii. A potentially lower benchmark interest rate;

iii. The relaxation of the LTV threshold;

iv. The allowance for properties under construction to come under a second mortgage.

The share prices of property counters under our coverage have softened following public protests on 4 Nov that demanded incumbent Jakarta governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, commonly known as Ahok, be arrested for blasphemy. Share prices dropped further after the US election was concluded on 9 Nov. On average, share prices have plunged 9% YTD since 4 Nov. These numbers have recovered by 5% on average from their lowest level during the same period. Nonetheless, the sector is currently valued at a 65% discount to RNAV, or around -1.5SD from its 3-year mean of 56%, which looks compelling. (Lydia Suwandi)

$CTRA $ASRI $BSDE $SMRA $APLN $BKSL

hide
P H
Dec 05,2016 15:03:37

Ciputra Group delays EGM plan to 27 December

Ciputra Group has delayed its EGM plan to 27 December from 2 December previously. At the EGM, the group will ask for shareholders approval to merge Ciputra Development ($CTRA), Ciputra Surya ($CTRS) and Ciputra Property ($CTRP) in order to simplify the group’s business structure and its liquidity in the stock market. Separately, CTRA has allocated IDR710.84bn to buy back CTRP/CTRS shares if shareholders decided not to approve the planned merger. (Bisnis.com, Kontan)

hide
P H
Dec 01,2016 15:47:28

Ciputra Development ($CTRA) eyes Rp1tn of DIRE issuance

For early stage, CTRA eyes to pledge assets through DIRE issuance with total value amounting to Rp1tn. According to Candra Ciputra, CTRA President Director, the company has Rp15-20tn of assets value which can be potentially pledged through DIRE. The company expects DIRE issuance to be realized in 4Q17. (Bisnis Indonesia)

hide
P H
Nov 30,2016 11:45:12

Indonesia Strategy: Managing Volatility
We opine that Indonesia’s fundamentals remain pointed towards long-term positives. This is underpinned by BI’s pro-growth policies to propel economic growth, the low inflation environment, continued government focus on infrastructure spending, and the security forces’ exemplary conduct in maintaining stability as political tensions rise. Thus, we expect stronger market direction post the Fed’s anticipated rate hike in December.

¨ Outflows dominate. Worries over a potential US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase and weakening IDR have triggered outflows in both the equities and fixed income markets. This is a reversal after months of inflows. Post Donald Trump’s win in the recent US elections, the JCI continues to trade at sub-5,200 level, with outflows recorded at IDR9.6tnin November. Similarly, outflows in the fixed income market have deepened, reaching IDR17trn over the past month, with the 10-year government bond continuing to escalate to 8.3% (August: +6.3%). Arguably, a lack of catalysts in the market have also led to the insipid performances, and we are only expecting stronger market direction post the Fed rate increase that is expected by mid-December.

¨ The three spectres are currency, interest rate trends and politics. As highlighted in our 14 Nov 2016 Currency Woes Dampen Sentiment report, the fundamentals still point towards a resilient IDR. This is underpinned by its high-yield differential vs developed market (DM) economies and peers, relatively high levels of growth among major emerging market (EM) economies, and ongoing reforms. Rising current account deficit (CAD) over the next few years is still manageable, while forex reserve levels also improved to USD115bn.

¨ Action by Bank Indonesia (BI) to intervene in the currency market is plausible to indicate direction. An influx of asset repatriation is also expected towards year-end, which would help the IDR to recuperate to a more favourable level. We opine that BI would maintain its current relaxation bias policy to propel economic growth, especially given the subdued inflationary outlook. As the series of rate cuts have yet to result in a meaningful economic trajectory, it is unlikely that the central bank would take the risk by reversing its current relaxation policy.

¨ Over the past five years, the spread between the BI rate and inflation has averaged 130bps vs the current 145bps spread. This provides room for further relaxation if needed. We expect BI to maintain its current benchmark rate until year-end, and potentially make another 25bps cut in early 2017 to further support economic growth under stable IDR circumstances.

¨ Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama’s alleged religious defamation has raised the political landscape’s temperature, as seen by the magnitude of the anti-Basuki rally that occurred earlier this month. This upheaval is negatively perceived by investors, especially after >2 years of stable politics. The market is likely to take heed of the next rally and, more importantly, how the Government handles the situation. So far, the security forces have been exemplary in restoring stability. We continue to believe that the Government’s position remains strong. As long as these forces remain united under presidential control, any act that destabilises the country can be brought under control quickly.

¨ Commodity plays and blue chips. We like PP London Sumatra (Lonsum) and United Tractors as commodity plays. Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI), Astra International, Ciputra Development, Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD), Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Telkom), Indofood Sukses Makmur and Waskita Karya are all stocks with strong fundamentals. (Helmy Kristanto)

$LSIP $BBNI $CTRA $BSDE $TLKM $INDF $WSKT

hide
P H
Nov 14,2016 10:00:51

Strategy: Currency Woes Dampen Sentiment

Sharp correction in JCI (down 4% on Friday) was mainly triggered by precipitous IDR weakening on external factors, while domestic macro improvements remain on track. We believe fundamentals still point to a resilient IDR, especially given Indonesia’s relatively high levels of growth among major EM economies. Consumer, pharmaceutical, poultry and high-end retailers would be at risk of IDR weakening, while commodities and heavy equipment players tend to benefit. High dividend yield stocks also offer protection in the current volatile market. Maintain LT positive view.

¨ Currency volatility is back on. Fears over potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike resulted in IDR falling by up to 3% to IDR13,545/USD onFriday. Considerable IDR weakening could lead to higher production costs and potential cost overruns in certain infrastructure projects, which would lead to higher inflation and growth risks. Strong foreign fund inflows have also increased risks.

¨ Indonesia is still on track for macro improvement, in our view particularly with its rising forex reserve of USD115bn and potential influx of repatriated funds by end-2016. However, the weakening IDR is seen as the main spectre for investors and its occurrence could trigger a market melt-down due to panic selling, shifting focus away from real fundamentals. Thus, BI’s firm response and action would be critical in restoring stability and confidence, in our view. We opine that IDR volatility would still linger before it recovers to IDR13,200/USD by end-2016.

¨ Stronger fundamentals now. There have been several episodes of high IDR volatility, with the last one occurring during 2014-15, when IDR depreciated as much as 30% and JCI suffered 13% losses. In our view, the current situation is different especially given the positive macro environment, in contrast to the subdued economic situation during 2014-15,on BI’s tightening rate policy bias.

¨ BI is already in the market to stabilise the currency given considerable depreciation in IDR, and we view this intervention as plausible to show direction. Current account deficit also remains manageable at 2.1% in 9M16 (3Q16: 1.8%) vs peak of 4.3% in 2014.We expect IDR to weaken slightly to 13,600/USD by 3Q17 on the back of larger current account deficit and potential Fed rate hike.

¨ Resilient IDR. In summary, we opine that fundamentals point to a resilient IDR, underpinned by high yield differentials vs developed market (DM) economies and peers, relatively high levels of growth among major emerging market (EM) economies, and ongoing reforms. Domestic consumption and government-led infrastructure spending also continue to serve as supporting factors for economic growth improvements and we still expect the economy to grow at 5.3% in 2017.

¨ Impact of weakening IDR. IDR weakening would impact corporate earnings through operational currency mismatch and/or forex debt translation. Consumer, pharmaceutical, poultry and high-end retailers have high importation costs and would be at risk. Conversely, exporters such as commodities and heavy equipment players would tend to benefit. Companies with high USD debt would also be negatively impacted if IDR weakening continues.

¨ All in, commodities and high dividend yield stocks offer some shield, in our view. We like London Sumatra and United Tractors as commodity plays, while Indocement Tunggal and Hexindo Adiperkasa offer highest dividend yields. Stocks with strong fundamentals for potential bottom-fishing include Bank Negara Indonesia, Astra International, Ciputra Development, Bumi Serpong Damai, Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Indofood Sukses Makmur and Waskita Karya. (Helmy Kristanto)

$BBNI $ASII $CTRA $ BSDE $TLKM $INDF $WSKT $UNTR $LSIP $INTP $HEXA

hide
P H
Nov 10,2016 23:01:55

Trump victory - the impact on Indonesia
 
JCI went into considerable correction, down as much as 2.4% during the intraday, following the prospect of Trump’s winning. Selling pressure were visible across sector, with IDR also depreciated 0.9%. Closer to end of trading hour, market slightly improved mainly led by a rebound on commodity counters, with index closed down 1% with IDR relatively flat.
 
The Trump’s winning undoubtedly creates uncertainty, especially on the execution and direction of what would be the policy under his administrative, on both economy and politic. According to our economist, historical facts imply that a clean sweep tends to be more positive for the US economy in general because of less gridlock. As such, with Republican sweep (Trump President and GOP Congress), fiscal policy, both from higher spending and lower taxes, is likely to be more expansionary over the next four years on average. It is still too early to conclude for any potential downward revision on economic growth at this stage.
 
One of the main concerns of the Trump administration would be on potential trade protectionist (anti-trade) issue. In regards of Indonesia, the main export products to the US would be textile, rubber product, shoes, electronics and F&B with export to US accounts for 12% of total non oil and gas export. However, the impact the share of export to GDP in Indonesia remains the lowest in the region at 22% (Vs Thailand’s 58%, Malaysia 73% and Singapore 198%), which would provide much-needed shelter under global economy volatility circumstances. Domestic consumption and government-led infrastructure spending continue to serve as the underpinning factors for economic growth improvement and we still expect economy growth at 5.3% in 2017.

Our economist still expect that the Fed is likely to go ahead with its tightening policy bias and raise rate by 25 bps this December. As such, one of the palpable risks would be on currency of which IDR has enjoyed 5% appreciation ytd. Any sudden increase in volatility could risk of escalation of importation of raw material and potential cost overrun in certain infra projects, which undoubtedly will led to inflation and growth risk. In our view, this risk would be contained, especially as: 1. Indonesia rising forex reserve of USD115b and expected to reach USD150b by 2017; 2. Repatriation fund inflow by end of the year; and 3. Record low inflation outlook at sub-4% level.
 
Acknowledging potential change in global trade and politics, Indonesia with its domestic consumption at the core, remains to offer attractive investment thesis. At this stage, we see no change on Indonesia fundamental investment story, and maintain our constructive view mainly underpin by macro improvement and government-led infrastructure investment. Our top picks in the market mainly comprise of company with strong balance and visible earnings growth and they are: $BBNI, $CTRA, $BSDE, $TLKM, $INDF and $WSKT. To play on the positive rally on the commodity, we like LSIP and UNTR. (Helmy Kristanto)

hide
P H
Nov 08,2016 19:08:47

Escalation in political tension; Macro improvement remains intact

While demonstration arguably has became part of life in Jakarta, last Friday’s demonstration would be one of the largest, reported to gather c. 50,000 people. The action were joined by many Moslem organisations from several regions to protest against Basuki T. Purnama (Ahok) on the allegation of religious defamation. The demonstration was mostly running in peace and calm order, but suddenly escalate into chaos at c.6 pm, the cut off time limit given by police. Couple of police trucks were burned with several casualty was reported on both side. The chaos only occurred in two specific locations, outside the Presidential Palace and one location in North Jakarta, with one Indomaret convenience store was looted. On Sunday, the police mentioned that the perpetrators of chaos in North Jakarta were unrelated to the one in Presidential Palace, and appears to be purely criminal act.

3 key messages from President Jokowi

We were encouraged by the way of the police and army to act quickly to restore the stability with tear gas, water cannon and truncheons, with strict order that rubber bullet was not allowed to be used. The situation was mostly under control past midnight.

Presiden Jokowi held press conference on early Saturday, with 3 key messages: 1. He condemned the chaos and violent demonstration;2. The legal process of Jakarta governor alleged transgressions would be concluded quickly and transparently and 3. Political actors are believed to ride on yesterday's chaos. In our view, the third points would signify escalation of political tension, which would led the government to make stronger intelligence effort and beef up security to prevent the whole situation to heighten. President Jokowi has also delayed his trip to Australia (scheduled: 6-8 Nov) to focus in restoring domestic stability.

Negative pressure is expected but macro improvement is still on tract

JCI has priced in a peaceful rally on Friday, with index closed up +0.6% ( +1.1% from Friday's low). Selling pressure is expected to happen on Monday, especially on the potential higher volatility of IDR.

There is also growing concern in relation to the prospect of asset repatriation under the current tax amnesty scheme. While the repatriation has been reported to the tax office, the physical transfer of that assets are still underway, with deadline by end of December. As such, it is imperative for the government to act quickly to restore confidence.

Despite Friday’s chaos, we see no change on Indonesia fundamental investment story, underpin by macro improvement and government-led infrastructure investment. Our top pick in the market are: $BBNI, $CTRA, $BSDE, $TLKM, $INDF and $WSKT.

hide
P H
Aug 29,2016 22:08:56
Indonesia Equities: Pricing In Near Term Positives

Key Points

- +9% gains in MSCI Indonesia since our country upgrade in July - Since our upgrade of Indonesian equities to overweight two months ago in the MIG publication after clarity on its tax amnesty programme emerged, sentiment has further improved following the appointment of well respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. The Indonesian equity market has seen strong equity inflows in 3Q16 lifting the index up ~9% (local currency terms, +8.2% in USD), which has outpaced world equities’ gains (+5.2%) for the same period and supported our call.

- Year to date’s gains of +18.6% has also more than recouped 2015’s losses of -12%, which has supported the turnaround highlighted in our January 2016’s South East Asia Equity Strategy report. The equity market rally year to date has been supported by a benign environment of lower interest rates, stable IDR currency vs the USD, under-owned positions in global portfolios and improving confidence in Indonesia’s recovery story. Estimated equity inflows into Indonesia so far for 3Q has exceeded the total inflows for 1H16, driving the market to new highs. Since mid May this year, it is estimated that net equity inflows reached $1.7bln, vs $1.6bln net outflows over the whole of 2015 (source: JPM estimates).


- Near term positives post amnesty and cabinet reshuffle look priced in, valuations are now close to 10 year high – At 16x PER, Indonesian equities is now trading close to +2 standard deviations to its 10 year historical average multiple and at its highest valuation level since 2007, which we believe has priced in much of the near term positives. Although near term liquidity is likely to remain supportive given benign expectations on interest rates, we caution that valuations have caught up and believe it is prudent to start taking some money off the table. On domestic updates, while the recently released 2017 budget is credible, it is unlikely to lead to further corporate earnings upgrades given a moderate government spending target of 6% (planned fiscal deficit for 2017 is 2.4% of GDP, flat/lower than 2016E). Towards the end of September and December which marks the first and second phases of the tax amnesty programme’s staggered tax rates for declared wealth, investor sentiment may also be influenced by expectations over the tax collections.


- Muted start to the 9-month tax amnesty programme, although still early days - As of 23rd August 2016, the asset declaration in the Tax Amnesty Program has reached Rp51.7tn, consisting of 85% onshore/15% offshore assets (12% overseas assets declared, 3% overseas net assets repatriated), while asset repatriation has reached Rp1.6 tn. Momentum of onshore assets declared in first half of August has picked up, with the tax office reporting about Rp11.5tn worth of onshore assets declared (>4x July’s). About three-quarters of the assets declared were from private individuals, and the balance private entities, which we view as supportive of property sector’s recovery given interest rates are expected to remain low while the Ministry of Finance has allowed repatriated funds to be invested in real assets (such as property and gold).


- Looking ahead, earnings upgrades need to pick up momentum for the rally to have more legs - Earnings wise, the recent 2Q results season was mixed with single digit corporate top line growth from a year ago. Concerns on banks remain dragged by asset quality issues while commodity related earnings have been moderate. Following the latest 2Q earnings season (where consensus earnings were trimmed -2% lower for FY16E and FY17E), FY16E and FY17E earnings are now forecast to grow +7% and +14% respectively (higher than Asia ex Japan equities’ 2.2% FY16E and 11% for FY17E respectively) which we believe is priced in current valuations.

Time to lock in some profits – Switch out of names which have rallied and offer no upside to target prices
- Sectors we are cautious on are: Commodity related plays which have rallied and priced in recovery expectations (coal – Bukit Asam, ITMG, palm oil – Astra Agro, London Sumatra), Banks (loans growth will be moderate while we expect asset quality concerns to remain a near term overhang) and Utilities (in particular, Perusahaan Gas – where we think profitability will remain pressured by regulatory efforts to lower gas prices).

Preferred Picks/Switch Ideas

- Preferred Sectors we would accumulate new positions are: Property (Bumi Serpong – Western Jakarta play, large landbank catering to middle income buyers), Telecommunications (Telekomunikasi Indonesia – improving smartphone penetration and data usage supported by a young population), Consumer (Indofood and Media Nusantara, which benefit from an improving domestic economy in 2H16) and Infrastructure (Jasa Marga – No. 1 toll road operator, long term beneficiary of infrastructure development in Indonesia).


- Risks to the current rally include weaker than expected global economy, faster than expected Federal Reserve interest rate hikes which may result in global liquidity volatility and disappointments in the domestic recovery and infrastructure spending pace (continues to be a focus in the 2017 budget, with 9% yoy expected growth).


$PTBA $KKGI $HRUM $ITMG $AALI $LSIP $SGRO $SMAR $PGAS $BBCA $BBRI $BMRI $BBNI $BSDE $ASRI $LPCK $LPKR $CTRA $TLKM $INDF $ICBP $AISA $MNCN $JSMR

Bull
P H
Aug 09,2016 08:32:55
KATALIS PROPERTI

•Penurunan BI Rate dipercaya akan gairahkan Bisnis Properti

•Pertumbuhan ekonomi bakal picu kebangkitan properti

•Dana tax amnesty dongkrak harga properti

•Pelonggaran kebijakan makroprudensial yang akan berlaku pada Agustus 2016 melalui : (i) Relaksasi ketentuan Loan to Value Ratio (LTV) dan Financing to Value Ratio (FTV) kredit/pembiayaan properti akan dorong penjualan rumah

•Penerbitan Peraturan Pemerintah mengenai Pajak Penghasilan Atas Penghasilan Dari Pengalihan Real Estate Dalam Skema Kontrak Investasi Kolektif Tertentu yang mengatur pemberian fasilitas Pajak Penghasilan final berupa pemotongan tarif hingga 0,5% dari tarif normal 5% kepada perusahaan yang menerbitkan DIRE. (Paket Kebijakan 11)

•Penerbitan Peraturan Pemerintah mengenai Insentif dan Kemudahan Investasi di Daerah, yang antara lain mengatur penurunan tarif BPHTB dari maksimum 5% menjadi 1% bagi tanah dan bangunan yang menjadi  aset DIRE. (Paket Kebijakan 11)

•Pemberian insentif dan kemudahan investasi untuk menggerakkan perekonomian di wilayah pinggiran melalui pengembangan Kawasan Ekonomi Khusus (KEK). (Paket Kebijakan 6) --->> catatan : Kija akan mendapatkan imbas positif karena KIJA mengelola dua wilayah KEK dan harga jual lahan industri kija pun bisa naik.

•Pengurusan izin investasi dikawasan industri hanya 3 jam, tax allowance dan holiday lebih cepat, insentif fasilitas dikawasan logistik berikat sesuai zona. (Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi 2) --->> imbas positif untuk properti yang memiliki lahan industri seperti KIJA, MDLN, BEST, AKRA, DMAS

•Menghilangkan Pajak berganda, Kebijakan ini untuk menarik dana yang selama ini diinvestasikan di luar negeri dan mendorong pertumbuhan investasi di bidang infrastruktur dan real estate. (Paket Kebijakan 5)

•Untuk mendorong investasi di sektor properti, pemerintah mengeluarkan kebijakan
1)Membuka kepemilikan orang asing terhadap rumah susun mewah dengan harga Rp 10 Miliar ke atas
2)Perubahan PP untuk memperkuat Perumnas dalam pembangunan rumah susun bagi masyakarat berpenghasilan rendah
3)Penyelesaian PP Hunian Berimbang untuk mendorong pembangunan perumahan bagi masyakarat berpenghasilan rendah. (Paket Kebijakan 1)

•Saham Sektor Properti Pilihan :
PPRO, KIJA, BKSL, CIPUTRA Group

 -----------------------------------------

(Ocbc, Source : Bappenas, Bank Indonesia, PP Properti, Disclaimer On)

$PPRO $KIJA $BKSL $CTRA
hide
P H
Jul 27,2016 08:50:24
EARNINGS CALENDAR (Half Year 2016 - Estimated)

JULY 2016

Jul 25, 2016 :
$BBTN (Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 26, 2016
$BDMN (Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT)
$BMRI (Persero) Tbk PT Earnings Release - 4:00PM GMT+7

Jul 27, 2016
$AALI (Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT)
$HMSP (Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT)
$LPPF (Matahari Department Store Tbk PT)
$MPPA (Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT)
$PTBA (Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 28, 2016
$ASII (Astra International Tbk PT)
$BEST (Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk PT)
$BJBR (PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk)
$DOID (Bloomberg)
$NCO (Vale Indonesia Tbk PT)
$JPFA (Bloomberg)
$PSAB (Bloomberg)
$SSMS (Bloomberg)
$SMGR (Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$UNTR (United Tractors Tbk PT)
$UNVR (Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT)

Jul 29, 2016
$ASRI (Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT)
$ADHI (Bloomberg)
$BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk PT)
$BNGA (Bloomberg)
$BNLI (Bloomberg)
$BNII (Bloomberg)
$BKSL (Bloomberg)
$BHIT (Bloomberg)
$BISI (Bloomberg)
$CPIN (Bloomberg)
$CTRA (Ciputra Development Tbk PT)
$CTRP (Bloomberg)
$ELSA (Bloomberg)
$GIAA (Bloomberg)
$GJTL (Bloomberg)
$GGRM (Gudang Garam Tbk PT)
$NKP (Bloomberg)
$INTP (Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT)
$INDF (Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$ICBP (Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$INDY (Bloomberg)
$KARW (Bloomberg)
$KAEF (Bloomberg)
$KIJA (Bloomberg)
$KLBF (Kalbe Farma Tbk PT)
$KRAS (Bloomberg)
$LPKR (Lippo Karawaci Tbk PT)
$LSIP (Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk PT)
$MAPI (Bloomberg)
$PWON (Bloomberg)
$PNBN, $PNLF, $PNIN (Bloomberg)
$PTPP (Bloomberg)
$RALS (Bloomberg)
$SMRA (Bloomberg)
$TBLA (Bloomberg)
$TLKM (Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$TOTL (Bloomberg)
$WSKT (Bloomberg)

AUGUST 2016
Aug 1, 2016
$HRUM (Harum Energy Tbk PT)
$SSIA (Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT)

Aug 10, 2016
$ITMG (Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk PT)

Aug 12, 2016
$EXCL (XL Axiata Tbk PT)

Aug 29, 2016
$ADRO (Adaro Energy Tbk PT)
$ANTM (Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk PT)
$BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$ISAT (Indosat Tbk PT)
$PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

SEPTEMBER

Sep 13, 2016
$SMCB (Holcim Indonesia)

hide
P H
Jul 25,2016 09:10:23
$CTRA : PT Ciputra Development Tbk baru berhasil mengantongi marketing sales Rp 3 triliun sepanjang semester 1 2016. Jumlah tersebut setara 32,2% dari total target yang dipatok perseroan tahun ini yakni Rp 9,3 triliun. (KONTAN)

hide
P H
Jun 16,2016 22:21:24
JADWAL DIVIDEND CIPUTRA GROUP

Cum Dividend CTRA
•Dividend Tunai Rp 6 (22 Juni 2016)
•Dividend Saham 161 os : 1 ns (12 Juli 2016)

Cum Dividend CTRP
•Dividend Tunai Rp 4  (22 Juni 2016)
•Dividend Saham 101 os : 1 ns (12 Juli 2016)

Cum Dividend CTRS
•Dividend Tunai Rp 22 (22 Juni 2016)
•Dividend Saham 69 os : 1 ns (12 Juli 2016)

 -----------------------------------------

(OCBC, Disclaimer On)

$CTRA $CTRP $CTRS

hide
P H
Jun 15,2016 10:18:17
Oil at US$50/bbl – Sweet Spot for Indonesia; Tax Amnesty – On Schedule for June 2016 Implementation

- Higher oil price will reduce fiscal deficit — The Indonesian government now expects incremental revenue from the recent bounce in oil price to ~US$50/bbl. Despite Indonesia is a net importer of oil & gas, fiscal deficit could decline by Rp0.1- 0.9trn based on government’s calculation for every US$1/bbl of oil price increase. The government is currently using an oil price of US$35/bbl in their 2016 proposed budget and thus with higher oil prices, they should receive additional revenue from the oil & gas sector.

- Gasoline being sold at c.US$50/bbl equivalent after taking into account the distribution margins of Pertamina — The current price of gasoline at Rp6,550/litre translates to c.US$48-50/bbl of oil prices. Thus the government is already at a comfortable level in terms of the selling prices of gasoline, and should see no pressure to increase the prices unless the oil prices were to increase to a higher level, say US$55-60/bbl. At Rp6,550/litre, Pertamina is making a distribution margin of Rp1,010/litre, as per government calculations (see Fig 1 for government’s detailed calculation of fuel prices).

- Non-subsidized fuel (RON97) in Malaysia is cheaper vs that in Indonesia — RON95 gasoline price in Indonesia (Rp8,250/litre) is +22% higher than RON97 price in Malaysia (Rp6,715/litre). The RON97 in Malaysia is a non-subsidize fuel while the RON95 is still being subsidized and sold at Rp5,575/litre.

- Tax amnesty is still on schedule to be passed in June 2016 — We see such an outcome as not being priced in by the market (see our recent Indonesian strategy note - Still Positive: Spotlight on Five Key Issues for Market). The parliament head of commission XI, Ahmadi Noor Supi, mentioned that tax amnesty bill will not get delayed since it is a critical part of the government’s 2016 budget revision. As per the government, they have included proceeds amounting to ~Rp103trn (US$7-8bn) from the tax amnesty bill in the 2016 revised budget.

- Maintain our positive view on the market — At a 1-year forward PER of 15.1x, the JCI is not cheap but nor does it look overly expensive, and we maintain our 5,700 target (+16%) set last October. Sector-wise, we continue to like property, construction and infra. $ASII rejoins our top picks and we see more value in banks as gainers from the expected passage of a tax amnesty bill. Top picks: $BBNI, $BBTN, $LPPF, $TLKM, $ASII, $MIKA, $PTPP, $ADHI, $BSDE, $CTRA, $PWON and $JSMR.

- Key market catalysts and risks — 1) Tax amnesty; 2) Lower personal income tax which would lift purchasing power. Risks: 1) Fed rate hikes; 2) Delay in passage of tax amnesty; 3) Heavy-handed policy intervention

 
Bull
P H
May 09,2016 15:03:39
Ciputra Development: Keeping It Under Control

We expect greater revenue recognition and better presales performance in 2H16. The near-term catalyst should be the tax amnesty bill. With numerous portfolios and land, Ciputra is one of the sector players that is likely to be at an advantage when the bill is passed. The company is also taking the opportunity from the amnesty to undertake its plan to merge listed subsidiaries Ciputra Surya and Ciputra Property. Maintain BUY and IDR1,540 TP (20% upside).

¨ Greater revenue recognition in 2H16. Delays in revenue recognition during Ciputra Development’s (Ciputra) 1Q6 results were mainly due to stretched instalment payments. 1Q also tends to be the weakest period. As such, we keep our forecasts unchanged, with greater revenue recognition in 2H16. Referring to our 26 Feb (Smooth Sailing In Turbulent Times…), we expect FY16F earnings to be flat at IDR1.3trn. This is on the back FY14-15 presales that should be significantly recognised in FY18.

¨ The benefit of tax amnesty. We continue to believe the tax amnesty approval could serve as a near-term major catalyst for the property sector. This is as people take the opportunity to revalue their assets and buy properties. With a large portfolio and landbank, Ciputra should be one of the property firms that is at an advantage when the amnesty is passed. Meanwhile, management advises that subsidiary Ciputra Surya (CTRS IJ, BUY, TP: IDR5,000) is to participate in the tax amnesty by transferring its assets into a subsidiary. This is part of the company’s plan to undertake its long waited plan to merged Ciputra Surya and another listed unit, Ciputra Property.

¨ Maintain BUY and IDR1,540 TP as we like Ciputra’s cash management, healthy balance sheet and vast project pipeline while it is still trading at a steeper 50% discount, ie -0.6SD to its 35% mean. The downside risks are slower revenue delivery, further delays in the tax amnesty plan and changes in government regulations that impact economic growth and/or property demand.

$CTRA $CTRP $CTRS
hide
P H
May 09,2016 15:00:21
Ciputra Surya (CTRS): Maintaining a Net Cash Position

We like the fact that Ciputra Surya has continuously maintained a net cash position since FY12. Amidst our expectation of flat FY16 earnings, we expect a further unlocking of value from its potential merger with Ciputra. Revenue recognition from two of its big FY15 presales should only happen in FY18. Maintain BUY and IDR5,000 TP (148% upside).

¨       Balance sheet remains strong. Ciputra Surya remains in a net cash position as at 1Q16. The current net cash balance is around IDR650bn, which we believe should be sufficient to internally finance its IDR1trn capex for this year. Regardless, it still has plenty of room for leverage. It has secured ~IDR500bn in bank loan facilities and plans to top up another IDR700bn, if needed, to finance the IDR1.2trn capex total for the Makassar reclamation project.

¨       Potential unlocking of value. We expect a potential unlocking of value if the tax amnesty bill is passed. Ciputra Surya is to participate in the amnesty by transferring its assets into a subsidiary. This is part of its parent entity Ciputra Development’s (Ciputra) (CTRA IJ, BUY, TP: IDR1,540) plan to undertake its long awaited merger with the company and another listed unit, Ciputra Property. The total book value has yet to be disclosed, but the potential tax penalty would be ~4.5% (2.5% land transfer title tax and 2% amnesty penalty).

¨       1Q16 earnings: results below expectations

¨       Maintain BUY and IDR5,000 TP, as we like Ciputra Surya’s net cash position, which it has held since FY12. The counter is still trading at a hefty 79% discount to its IDR9,818/share RNAV and at 7.2x FY16F P/E (-1SD to its average 3-year rolling P/E). Downside risks include a lack of liquidity, a delay in the reclamation progress and project completions, further delays in the tax amnesty plan, and a smaller-than-expected Bank Indonesia rate cut.

$CTRS $CTRA
hide
P H
May 02,2016 17:21:11
Property Development - Weak 1Q16 results

- SMRA, CTRA and BSDE 1Q16 dropped 60-89% yoy and missed our estimates.

- Only PWON results were in line with our and consensus estimates.

- The profit misses were generally attributed to slower revenue recognition as marketing sales slowed down since late 2013 alongside stretched payment terms.

- We believe this will pose earnings risk to all developers under our coverage, although tax amnesty may provide support to share prices in the near term.

$SMRA $CTRA $BSDE $PWON
Bear
P H
May 02,2016 15:54:14
Ciputra Development: 1Q16 NPAT is 10% of ours and consensus

- Weak 1Q16 result. CTRA reported earnings of Rp144bn (-37% YoY & -59% QoQ), which is only 10% of ours and
consensus. Slower delivery is the culprit of weak earnings. Revenue declines by 8% YoY to Rp1.3tn. CTRA’s development
revenue is down by 16% YoY to Rp940bn. CTRA’s G&A cost increase by 17% YoY, which is mainly driven by 32% YoY
increase in salary cost.

- Gearing remains healthy. The company is standing at net gearing of 29% with net debt of Rp2.5tn. Sales advances is at
Rp5.7tn, stable on QoQ basis. Due to spike in income tax payment (tax paid Rp320bn versus reported final tax expense of
Rp68bn), the company generates negative operating cashflow of Rp37bn.

- Maintain Buy. We think slower deliveries are the main culprit for CTRA’s weak earnings. Also cashflow from operations
still looks healthy (turn negative which we suspect due to early repayment of income taxes). We expect better revenue
deliveries in the coming quarters. Maintain Buy with PT of Rp1,600.

$CTRA $CTRP $CTRS

Bear
P H
Apr 20,2016 08:50:54
Akhirnya, Pemerintah Terbitkan Aturan Kepemilikan Hunian untuk Orang Asing http://kom.ps/AFuuNb

Berikut daftar harga minimal pembelian rumah tinggal oleh orang asing:

DKI Jakarta Rp 10 miliar
Banten Rp 5 miliar
Jawa Barat Rp 5 miliar
Jawa Tengah Rp 3 miliar
Yogyakarta Rp 3 miliar
Jawa Timur Rp 5 miliar
Bali Rp 3 miliar
Nusa Tenggara Barat Rp 2 miliar
Sumatera Utara Rp 2 miliar
Kalimantan Timur Rp 2 miliar
Sulawesi Selatan Rp 2 miliar
Daerah lainnya Rp 1 miliar

Berikut daftar harga minimal pembelian satuan rumah susun (apartemen) oleh orang asing:

DKI Jakarta Rp 5 miliar
Banten Rp 1 miliar
Jawa Barat Rp 1 miliar
Jawa Tengah
Yogyakarta Rp 1 miliar
Jawa Timur Rp 1,5 miliar
Bali Rp 2 miliar
Nusa Tenggara Barat Rp 1 miliar
Sumatera Utara Rp 1 miliar
Kalimantan Timur Rp 1 miliar
Sulawesi Selatan Rp 1 miliar
Daerah lain Rp 750 juta

Akhirnya, Pemerintah Terbitkan Aturan Kepemilikan Hunian untuk Orang Asing

Kementerian Agraria dan Tata Ruang/Badan Pertanahan Nasional (ATR/BPN) akhirnya mengeluarkan aturan kepemilikan hunian bagi orang asing.

Aturan tersebut tertuang dalam Peraturan Menteri ATR/Kepala BPN Nomor 13 Tahun 2016 tentang tata cara pemberian, pelepasan, atau pengalihan hak atas pemilikan rumah tempat tinggal atau hunian oleh orang asing yang berkedudukan di Indonesia.

"Sudah saya tanda tangani dan ini menjadi tindak lanjut dari Peraturan Pemerintah Nomor 103 Tahun 2015," ujar Menteri ATR/BPN Ferry Mursyidan Baldan di Batam, Kamis (14/4/2016).

Aturan kepemilikan hunian bagi orang asing dikeluarkan untuk mendorong iklim investasi di Indonesia. Menurut Ferry, selama ini investor asing membutuhkan fasilitas perumahan untuk mendukung bisnis mereka di Indonesia.

"Ini bagian kemudahan perizinan. Kita berikan percepatan, ketepatan, dan kepastian bagi investor," katanya.

Kepemilikan dapat berupa rumah tunggal ataupun rumah susun dan hanya diberikan kepada orang asing yang memiliki izin tinggal di Indonesia.

Selain itu, pembelian hanya berlaku untuk pembelian baru langsung dari pengembang atau pemilik.

$BSDE $ASRI $CTRP $CTRA $CTRS $PWON $APLN $LPCK $LPKR
hide
P H
Apr 08,2016 09:09:22
Property: Demand is still there based on rumah123.com survey
Rumah123.com have performed a survey to 12.000 respondents in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong for their
appetite in Indonesia’s property market. They found that demand for property is still high, with the majority of respondents
thinking that now is the right time to buy. According to the survey, landed house is the most popular type of property, while
land follows it in second place. The most favorite pricing range is Rp300mn to Rp1bn; with terms of payment still focus on
KPR. Rumah123.com predicts that property sales will increase by 5%-10% in FY16.

$BSDE $ASRI $MDLN $BKSL $CTRA
Bull
P H
Apr 05,2016 15:34:07
Property: New in the Hood

- We forecast a slow 1Q16 marketing sales, with most property companies only meeting 5-15% of their FY16F. Most property companies are still waiting for tax amnesty before launching a brand new project.

- Another strong launch from BSDE. BSDE has just introduced a new complex called The Mozia within the BSD area. They have launched a cluster called “Amarine” in the 27th of March, 2016. The Amarine cluster has a total of 207 units (37 land plots and 170 houses). Take up rate has been pretty good at 87%. Houses’ land size ranges 60sqm – 96sqm; while land plot size ranges 98sqm – 154sqm. The house pricing is Rp2-2.5bn. The land ASP is around Rp14.7mn/sqm; implying around Rp280bn of marketing sales.

- Weak take-up rate from JRPT. JRPT introduced a new Japanese smart living concept through its newly launched product called “Piazza”. The housing complex is designed by Osamu Nishida, a Japanese winning architect. Land size in “Piazza” is ranging from 60sqm to 97sqm, while selling price starts from Rp1.8bn to Rp2.7bn, with average land ASP at Rp22.5mn/sqm. Based on our channel check, only 15 units were sold during the launch (20% take up rate), with estimated marketing sales of around Rp30-40bn. We think take up rates are weak as the design does not suit Indonesian taste.

- Citra Raya Tangerang is aiming at the sweet spot. In the beginning, the company launched the Cluster Vernazza, however due to strong take up rates (3x oversubscribed), the company has launched the second cluster. Prices range is Rp450-600mn per unit. CTRA has earned more than Rp160 billion of sales from the launch of Vernazza and Bolzano in Citra Raya Tangerang.

- APLN is on-track, others are trying to catch-up. We forecast APLN to be on-track due to its Podomoro Golf View project. Most of the property companies are starting their first launch in April. MDLN will launch a low rise in JGC and SMRA also will launch another cluster in Bandung.

$BSDE $JRPT $CTRA $APLN
hide
P H
Feb 28,2016 10:34:16
Ciputra Development ($CTRA), Smooth Sailing In Turbulent Times…

… as its operating cash flow remains positive despite a slowdown in the property sector. We upgrade Ciputra to BUY with a higher IDR1,540 TP (17% upside). The company’s wide-ranging and numerous projects through tie-ups with local land owners reduce funds for acquiring land, mitigating the risk of a slowdown in property demand. We lower FY16F-17F earnings by 8%/13% to better reflect: i) significant presales recognition in FY18F and ii) flat presales guidance for FY16F.

? Good cash management. We think Ciputra Development (Ciputra) is one of the property companies with good cash management as it has been able to maintain positive operating cash flow amid the unfavourable business environment over the last two years (Figure 1). Balance sheet remains healthy with net gearing of 0.2x as at 9M15 vs average peers’ 0.5x over the same period. We expect interest coverage ratio to be 7.4x/8.0x for FY16F-17F (from 6.6x in 9M15), above average peers’ 6.2x/6.7x. This is attributed to the company’s joint operation schemes with local land owners, which allow it to avoid the messy business of acquiring land as well as reduce funds for land acquisition. Its wide-ranging and numerous project locations should also mitigate headwinds from a slowdown in property demand.

? Flat guidance for FY16F. Ciputra guided presales of IDR9.3trn for FY16F, flat from FY15 presales of IDR9.2trn. About IDR1.5trn comes from eight new project launches, of which four are projects diverted from FY15 and mostly under joint operation schemes. Its subsidiary, Ciputra Surya ($CTRS) targets lower presales of IDR3.1trn (FY15: IDR4.1trn) due to: i) a high base effect from good presales in Makassar, ii) future toll road access that boosted presales in North Citraland Surabaya, as well as iii) good office demand in Ciputra World Surabaya. Meanwhile, Ciputra Property ($CTRP) is targeting IDR1trn presales for FY16, with office strata sales contributing 48% of FY16 target, 43% from apartment strata sales, and the remainder from Nivata Villa and resorts in Bali. Note that Ciputra recorded total marketing sales of IDR347bn in Jan 2016 (3.7% of FY16F presales).

? Changes to our forecast. In addition to flat presales guidance for FY16F, we expect FY14-15 presales to be significantly recognised in FY18F. Thus, we lower our FY16F-17F earnings by 8%/13%, translating to earnings growth of 0.3%/9.4% respectively.

? Upgrade to BUY (from Neutral) and, after adjusting for higher land selling price, we raise our RNAV-derived TP to IDR1,540 (vs IDR1,490), maintaining our 40% discount to RNAV/share of IDR2,562. We note also that the counter trades at a steeper 49% discount, which is -0.5SD to its mean of 34% discount. Our BUY call is mostly on the company’s good cash management and healthy balance sheet with vast projects in the pipeline. Key risks: i) a change in government regulations, and ii) slower-than-expected economic growth that could hurt property demand.
hide
P H
Feb 15,2016 09:03:47
Visit to property expo

First property expo in 2016 was encouraging
Over the weekend, we visited a property expo in Jakarta, organized by
Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ). During the event, BTN offered a
promotional mortgage rate of 6.6% fixed for one year. We found that a
large number of visitors to the expo showed enthusiasm regarding the
event. Besides BTN, we note that other big banks are also starting to
lower their rates to single digits. We see this trend as positive for
property sector especially for BSDE and CTRA.

Interesting mortgage rate promotion by BTN
As the organizer of the expo, Bank Tabungan Negara ($BBTN) specializes
in the mortgage segment and is the anchor bank for the Government
subsidized mortgage program. As of FY15, BTN had a market share of
~30% in mortgage lending. To boost its mortgage portfolio by ~20% in
FY16, during the expo, BTN offered a promotional non-subsidized
mortgage rate of 6.6% fixed for one year. For subsidized mortgages, BTN
offered a flat 5.0% for 20 years and LTV of 99%.

Targeting the low-middle segment
There were 209 developers participating in the event offering about 660
projects mainly in the Greater Jakarta area and several other cities in
Indonesia. Listed developers that participated in the expo were $CTRA,
$ASRI, $PPRO and $MTLA. Based on our visit to most of the exhibition
booths, we note that most of the properties offered were mainly
targeting the low-middle market segment with price tags starting from
IDR100m/unit (USD7,500). Further, many private developers offered low
cost housing that can be eligible to be financed by subsidized mortgage.

Other banks also starting to offer lower rates
Besides BTN, we also note that other big banks, such as BCA, Bank
Mandiri, BNI, BRI and CIMB Niaga offered promotional mortgage rates
below 10% starting in Feb’15. We view this positively for the property
sector, especially for $BSDE and $CTRA as most of their buyers use
mortgages for their purchases.

Bull
P H
Feb 15,2016 09:03:46
Visit to property expo

First property expo in 2016 was encouraging
Over the weekend, we visited a property expo in Jakarta, organized by
Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ). During the event, BTN offered a
promotional mortgage rate of 6.6% fixed for one year. We found that a
large number of visitors to the expo showed enthusiasm regarding the
event. Besides BTN, we note that other big banks are also starting to
lower their rates to single digits. We see this trend as positive for
property sector especially for BSDE and CTRA.

Interesting mortgage rate promotion by BTN
As the organizer of the expo, Bank Tabungan Negara ($BBTN) specializes
in the mortgage segment and is the anchor bank for the Government
subsidized mortgage program. As of FY15, BTN had a market share of
~30% in mortgage lending. To boost its mortgage portfolio by ~20% in
FY16, during the expo, BTN offered a promotional non-subsidized
mortgage rate of 6.6% fixed for one year. For subsidized mortgages, BTN
offered a flat 5.0% for 20 years and LTV of 99%.

Targeting the low-middle segment
There were 209 developers participating in the event offering about 660
projects mainly in the Greater Jakarta area and several other cities in
Indonesia. Listed developers that participated in the expo were $CTRA,
$ASRI, $PPRO and $MTLA. Based on our visit to most of the exhibition
booths, we note that most of the properties offered were mainly
targeting the low-middle market segment with price tags starting from
IDR100m/unit (USD7,500). Further, many private developers offered low
cost housing that can be eligible to be financed by subsidized mortgage.

Other banks also starting to offer lower rates
Besides BTN, we also note that other big banks, such as BCA, Bank
Mandiri, BNI, BRI and CIMB Niaga offered promotional mortgage rates
below 10% starting in Feb’15. We view this positively for the property
sector, especially for $BSDE and $CTRA as most of their buyers use
mortgages for their purchases.

Bull
P H
May 11,2015 12:57:19
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) menguat +0,1% (+3 poin) di level 5184,45 poin pada penutupan perdagangan sesi 1, Senin (11/5). Indeks LQ45 naik +0,15% ke posisi 900. Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) naik +0,27% ke posisi 699 poin. Indeks Kompas 100 naik +0,19% ke level 1.134 poin. IDX30 naik +0,15% ke level 466 poin. Pemodal asing membukukan transaksi net sell (jual bersih) -Rp37 miliar. Transaksi yang tercapai Rp2,136 triliun dengan volume trading sebanyak 5,755 miliar saham. Sektor: Agri +2,07% Mining +1,70% Properti -0,69% Infrastruktur +0,16% Finance +0,04% Trade -0,14% Manufaktur -0,17% Consumer -1,17% Basic ind -0,07% Misc-ind -0,25% Kini sektor agro dan mining menjadi penopang utama laju IHSG pada perdagangan sesi siang awal pekan ini. Saham agri ditunjang oleh naiknya AALI +3,07%. BWPT ++3,75%. DSNG +1,41%. GZCO +1,12%. SIMP +2,34%. SSMS +1,01%. Adapun saham-saham mining yang bergerak naik antara lain: ADRO +5,23%. ANTM +0,63%. ARTI +4,44%. HRUM +2,97%. INCO +1,24%. ITMG +5,51%. Kelompok saham properti bergerak negatif seiring terbitnya Revisi PMK No 90 /PMK.03/2015 tentang pengenaan pajak barang super mewah (PPh 22) untuk properti. Saham-saham properti yang melorot adalah: APLN -1,73%. BSDE -0,28%. CTRA -2,92%. JRPT -7,34%. LPCK -0,90% . LPKR -1,19%. Adapun sektor yang turun paling dalam adalah consumer -1,17%. Koreksi consumer dimotori saham: DVLA -1,11%. KAEF -0,84%. GGRM -0,16%. TSPC -1,67%. ULTJ -2,35%. UNVR -0,06%. Bursa Asia Sentimen kebijan Tiongkok yang memangkas suku bunga menjadi sentimen utama bagi market regional. Bank Sentral Tiongkok (People`s Bank of China (PBOC) menurunkan suku bunga kredit dan deposito bertenor 1 tahun sebesar 25 bps. Indeks Nikkei naik +1,27% (+245,32 poin) ke posisi 19.624,51 poin. Indeks Hang Seng naik +0,50% (+132,29 poin) ke level 27.714,63 poin Indeks Shanghai naik +1,18% (+49,62 poin) ke posisi 4.255,54 poin Indeks Straits Times +0,46% (+15,72 poin) ke level 3.467 poin (pukul 12.00 WIB).
hide