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P H
Sep 24,2017 09:08:15

We have visited PT Elnusa ($ELSA) yesterday to get some colors of its 2H17-FY18F outlook after a dismal 1H17. It has secured a meaningful land seismic contract and deployed its drilling rig since JunJuly and expect these new developments to lift FY17F earnings into the region of IDR150-200bn (1H17: IDR14bn), translating into FY17F PER of 11- 8.5x at current price.


We believe it is about time for a bottom fishing given a better 2H17 outlook. Further, being a subsidiary of PERTAMINA, the recovery of job flows from Mahakam block after the Total – PERTAMINA transition and a significant boost of ELSA’s given contracts/ earnings thereafter will likely lift share prices, although the exact timing is hard to gauge.


  • 1H17 net margin declined on lower revenue from upstream and downstream O&G support segment. Elnusa’s 1H17 revenue grew 16% YoY but gross profit saw a YoY decline of 51%, driven by 10-15% drop of revenue from these segments, segmental gross margins were also lower due to the expiry of higher margins contracts at Mahakam block and the non-deployment of its drilling rig during 1H17. Elnusa managed to increase the given fuel distribution volume from PERTAMINA, with this segment’s revenue/gross profit grew 75/65% YoY but it was insufficient to make up for the other segments due to inherently lower margins (single digit) of this business segment.
     
  • Revenue and margins of upstream segment to improve in 2H17. Elnusa has secured a land seismic at West Papua (working from July 2017 to 1H18) and another Marine Seismic contract at Aceh (working from August-Nov 2017) with a indicative contract value of IDR3-4tril. Its drilling rig was also employed by PERTAMINA EP at East Kalimantan from Jun-Des 2017. Management guided gross margins of 15-20%, meanwhile, trying to further increase the fuel distribution quota of PERTAMINA.
     
  • Mahakam block handover is a big medium term catalysts. Contracts from Mahakam block used to contribute more than 50% of revenue in both upstream/downstream support services in FY14-16 and saw a significant decline due to the Mahakam block handover. Elsa targeted FY18F net profit of at least IDR200bn without improvement from Mahakam, however, expect net profit to swing back to IDR300bn when job flows of Mahakam kicks in next year, Elnusa expects higher job flows from PERTAMINA due its subsidiary status.
     
    The handover proves to be lengthy so far due to conflict of interests between TOTAL and PERTAMINA, that said, the block contributes to 20% of the nation’s total natural gas output and national’s interest is at stake.
     
  • Key risks are Mahakam handover delay in FY18F and margin squeeze. Elnusa’s share price has corrected 50% YTD and given a better outlook going forward, downside should be limited. That said, FY18F earnings growth will be limited if job flows from Mahakam Block does not recover. Elnusa acknowledge that contract margins from PERTAMINA were higher than foreign oil and gas players, whose are increasingly sensitive on production costs after the new gross split PSC regime. (Norman Choong, CFA)

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P H
Jul 27,2016 08:50:24
EARNINGS CALENDAR (Half Year 2016 - Estimated)

JULY 2016

Jul 25, 2016 :
$BBTN (Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 26, 2016
$BDMN (Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT)
$BMRI (Persero) Tbk PT Earnings Release - 4:00PM GMT+7

Jul 27, 2016
$AALI (Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT)
$HMSP (Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT)
$LPPF (Matahari Department Store Tbk PT)
$MPPA (Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT)
$PTBA (Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 28, 2016
$ASII (Astra International Tbk PT)
$BEST (Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk PT)
$BJBR (PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk)
$DOID (Bloomberg)
$NCO (Vale Indonesia Tbk PT)
$JPFA (Bloomberg)
$PSAB (Bloomberg)
$SSMS (Bloomberg)
$SMGR (Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$UNTR (United Tractors Tbk PT)
$UNVR (Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT)

Jul 29, 2016
$ASRI (Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT)
$ADHI (Bloomberg)
$BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk PT)
$BNGA (Bloomberg)
$BNLI (Bloomberg)
$BNII (Bloomberg)
$BKSL (Bloomberg)
$BHIT (Bloomberg)
$BISI (Bloomberg)
$CPIN (Bloomberg)
$CTRA (Ciputra Development Tbk PT)
$CTRP (Bloomberg)
$ELSA (Bloomberg)
$GIAA (Bloomberg)
$GJTL (Bloomberg)
$GGRM (Gudang Garam Tbk PT)
$NKP (Bloomberg)
$INTP (Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT)
$INDF (Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$ICBP (Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$INDY (Bloomberg)
$KARW (Bloomberg)
$KAEF (Bloomberg)
$KIJA (Bloomberg)
$KLBF (Kalbe Farma Tbk PT)
$KRAS (Bloomberg)
$LPKR (Lippo Karawaci Tbk PT)
$LSIP (Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk PT)
$MAPI (Bloomberg)
$PWON (Bloomberg)
$PNBN, $PNLF, $PNIN (Bloomberg)
$PTPP (Bloomberg)
$RALS (Bloomberg)
$SMRA (Bloomberg)
$TBLA (Bloomberg)
$TLKM (Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$TOTL (Bloomberg)
$WSKT (Bloomberg)

AUGUST 2016
Aug 1, 2016
$HRUM (Harum Energy Tbk PT)
$SSIA (Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT)

Aug 10, 2016
$ITMG (Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk PT)

Aug 12, 2016
$EXCL (XL Axiata Tbk PT)

Aug 29, 2016
$ADRO (Adaro Energy Tbk PT)
$ANTM (Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk PT)
$BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$ISAT (Indosat Tbk PT)
$PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

SEPTEMBER

Sep 13, 2016
$SMCB (Holcim Indonesia)

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P H
May 09,2016 17:48:59
Elnusa plans to allocate Rp500bn (US$38m) capex in 2016. The capex will be used to purchase new equipment and renew its old equipment. 70% of the capex will be sourced from bank loan while 30% of it will be sourced from internal cash. Separately, the company plans to get new contract oversees, such as Vietnam, Brunei, other middle east countries and Africa.

$ELSA
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P H
May 03,2016 08:14:55
BERITA SAHAM 03 MEI 2016



1.PERTAMBANGAN

1.1.MEDC : Medco Tingkatkan Saham di Blok APT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk menaikkan sahamnya menjadi 58,33 persen di lapangan gas Blok A di Kabupaten Aceh Timur, Aceh, melalui akuisisi saham Japex di Blok A 16,66 persen. (KOMPAS)

1.2.Suplai dan Penyerapan Minyak Mentah Global Mulai Stabil 2017. (TEMPO)

1.3.PGN Bangun 24 Ribu Jargas di Surabaya Senilai Rp285,2 Miliar. (TEMPO)

1.4.ELSA : PT Elnusa Tbk bakal bekerjasama dengan Chevron dan PT Pertamina untuk mengembangkan pembangkit listrik tenaga flare gas. Nantinya, kedua perusahaan tersebut akan menyediakan flare gas dan perseroan menjadi operator pembangkit listriknya. (TENDER INDONESIA)



2.MAKRO EKONOMI

2.1.Sejalan dengan perkiraan Bank Indonesia, Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) pada April 2016 mencatat deflasi sebesar 0,45% (mtm). Deflasi IHK terutama disumbang oleh deflasi komponen barang yang diatur Pemerintah (administered prices) dan komponen bahan makanan bergejolak (volatile foods). Dengan perkembangan tersebut, inflasi IHK secara tahunan (yoy) mencapai 3,60% (yoy) serta berada dalam kisaran sasaran inflasi Bank Indonesia, yaitu sebesar 4%±1% (yoy).



3.PROPERTI

2.1.LPCK : PT Lippo Cikarang Tbk. segera meluncurkan menara apartemen keenam yakni Newport Park di proyek andalannya Orange County. (TENDER INDONESIA)



4.TELEKOMUNIKASI - MEDIA

4.1.XL Kaji Perluas Kerjasama dengan MNC Grup di Pasar Broadband. (INDO TELKO)

4.2.BMTR : PT Global Mediacom Tbk. akan mengeluarkan maksimal 2% saham perseroan untuk program EMSOP (maksimal 283,97 juta saham perseroan). Dividen tunai final sebesar Rp5 per saham. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

4.3.MNCN : PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk. akan mengeluarkan maksimal 2% saham perseroan untuk program EMSOP (maksimal 283,97 juta saham perseroan). Dividen tunai final sebesar Rp42 per saham atas tahun buku 2015. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

4.4.FR PEFINDO : JASUINDO TIGA PERKASA, TBK (JTPE - 29 APRIL 2016)

Target Harga Terendah 594
Target Harga Tertinggi  667

SEE MORE
http://www.idx.co.id/Portals/0/StaticData/NewsAndAnnouncement/ANNOUNCEMENTSTOCK/From_EREP/201605/f3592aac8f_9eca5c0d79.pdf



5.KUMPULAN PAKET KEBIJAKAN I-XII

http://www.esdm.go.id/gpr/paket-kebijakan.html



 -----------------------------------------


(DISCLAIMER ON)

$MEDC $PGAS $ELSA $LPCK $EXCL $MNCN $BMTR JTPE
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P H
Apr 14,2016 08:44:04
Tips trading buat hari ini  Kamis, tanggal 14 April 2016  :

1.IHSG kemarin semerbak dengan saham-saham kecil dengan kenaikan yang luar biasa, sedangkan saham baking masih tertekan, kecuali saham ASII.
Tidak usah peduli banget sama market yang susah naik dengan blue chips, kalau banyak saham kecil yang terbang dan memberikan cuan.

2.Jadi mendingan kita bahas satu persatu deh saham-saham yang naik luar biasa.

3.ELSA :Saham ini break out dengan volume yang luar biasa, saham ini jika mampu bertahan diatas level 450, maka targetnya masih jauh yaitu sekitar 630-650.Namun jika tidak mampu bertahan diatas level 450, sebaiknya take profit dulu.

4.GIAA : Saham ini sudah dimainkan 4 hari berturut-turut, so sebaiknya hati-hati, kemarin mencoba menembus level 600, namun tidak kuat sehingga turun kembali dibawah 600, target terdekat adalah 650. Risk lebih besar dari rewards, so main saham ini sebaiknya main cepat saja.

5.ANTM : Saham ini diisukan target menuju 800, kenaikan dalam 2 hari terakhir terlalu cepat, sehingga dapat saja terjadi konsolidasi dahulu, namun jika bertahan diatas level 630, maka saham ini otw menuju 800.

6.TINS : Saham ini sebentar lagi menuju level 1000, so sebaiknya hati-hati jika sudah mencapai level 1000, karena targetnya sudah dekat yaitu 1100.

7.PTBA : Saham ini menguji level 7825, jika mampu tembus level 7825, maka akan menguji level 8000, dengan target 10.000-12.000

8.INCO : Saham ini berpeluang menguji level 2000, dengan target terdekat 2045-2050, target mid term adalah 2700, dengan syarat harus mampu tembus dan bertahan diatas level 2050.

9.ERAA : Saham ini menguji level 800-810, jika tembus maka targetnya akan lumayan jauh, yaitu 1200, dengan syarat harus mampu bertahan diatas level 800.

10.ADRO :Saham ini otw to 800, saham ini ada small resist di level 760. nampak ADRO tidak akan sulit menembus level small resist tsb.

$IHSG $ELSA $GIAA $ANTM $TINS $PTBA $INCO $ERAA $ADRO
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P H
Apr 14,2016 08:42:36
Tips trading buat hari ini  Kamis, tanggal 14 April 2016  :

1.IHSG kemarin semerbak dengan saham-saham kecil dengan kenaikan yang luar biasa, sedangkan saham baking masih tertekan, kecuali saham ASII.
Tidak usah peduli banget sama market yang susah naik dengan blue chips, kalau banyak saham kecil yang terbang dan memberikan cuan.

2.Jadi mendingan kita bahas satu persatu deh saham-saham yang naik luar biasa.

3.ELSA :Saham ini break out dengan volume yang luar biasa, saham ini jika mampu bertahan diatas level 450, maka targetnya masih jauh yaitu sekitar 630-650.Namun jika tidak mampu bertahan diatas level 450, sebaiknya take profit dulu.

4.GIAA : Saham ini sudah dimainkan 4 hari berturut-turut, so sebaiknya hati-hati, kemarin mencoba menembus level 600, namun tidak kuat sehingga turun kembali dibawah 600, target terdekat adalah 650. Risk lebih besar dari rewards, so main saham ini sebaiknya main cepat saja.

5.ANTM : Saham ini diisukan target menuju 800, kenaikan dalam 2 hari terakhir terlalu cepat, sehingga dapat saja terjadi konsolidasi dahulu, namun jika bertahan diatas level 630, maka saham ini otw menuju 800.

6.TINS : Saham ini sebentar lagi menuju level 1000, so sebaiknya hati-hati jika sudah mencapai level 1000, karena targetnya sudah dekat yaitu 1100.
PTBA : Saham ini menguji level 7825, jika mampu tembus level 7825, maka akan menguji level 8000, dengan target 10.000-12.000

7.INCO : Saham ini berpeluang menguji level 2000, dengan target terdekat 2045-2050, target mid term adalah 2700, dengan syarat harus mampu tembus dan bertahan diatas level 2050.

8.ERAA : Saham ini menguji level 800-810, jika tembus maka targetnya akan lumayan jauh, yaitu 1200, dengan syarat harus mampu bertahan diatas level 800.

9.ADRO :Saham ini otw to 800, saham ini ada small resist di level 760. nampak ADRO tidak akan sulit menembus level small resist tsb.

$IHSG $ELSA $GIAA $ANTM $TINS $INCO $ERAA $ADRO
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P H
Apr 11,2016 09:42:44
Mining Sector

Trimegah Securities Mining Conference Takeaways

Mining conference: INCO, DOID, ADRO, HEXA, ELSA
We recently hosted a small Mining Conference on 4th April 2016, inviting 4 prominent mining-related companies (eg; INCO—nickel producer, DOID—mining services contractor, ADRO—coal producer, and HEXA—heavy equipment distributor) and ELSA, a strong player in the O&G related industry. Most of the attendees are from asset management and no representative of pension funds were present, which we think indicates the general positioning among locals: pension funds already own the sector while asset managements are underweight and looking for opportunities.
 


1) Investors are not sure where commodities prices are heading, and so are the corporates
Most of the questions revolve around commodities prices, which seem to be one question that corporates have difficulty on answering. This is not surprising, given recent volatility in commodities prices particularly crude oil. Most corporates seem to be assuming that coal and/or oil prices to hover around current prices in making their investment/operational decisions. The assumptions in our financial models are slightly more conservative. We assume coal price to decline from current level of USD51/ton to USD48.5/ton whereas oil price to USD40/barrel.
 


2) Corporates are focusing on cost efficiency
Given lack of faith in any commodity price forecast, corporates are focusing on cost efficiency instead. A mining consultant who attended our lunch event mentioned that there is plenty of interest on using technology to improve operational efficiency at mining companies these days. This ranges from replacing regular light bulbs with LED to installing GPS on all excavators. This should benefit the larger mining contractors i.e. UNTR and DOID, which have the economies of scale to invest in the higher-end technologies to improve efficiency.
 


3) Expect overall heavy equipment sale to remain sluggish
Coal miners and mining contractors are delaying purchase of new equipment. The impact is less on UNTR as it means higher maintenance activity which is normally a higher margin business, but likely to hurt the smaller heavy equipment sellers more.
 


ADRO remain our top pick in the sector
We have Buys on ADRO and ELSA, with ADRO as our top pick. We like ADRO for its good corporate governance and healthy balance sheet. We also view Batang power plant as a strong catalyst, with projected NAV of IDR104/share (~15% of ADRO’s market cap). Among others, we think INCO has a positive outlook on volume, albeit nickel price remains a risk.

$INCO $DOID $ADRO $HEXA $ELSA $UNTR
Bear
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise.
ELSA
308.00 0.00 (0.00%)
Elnusa Tbk.
Last Update 02:54:11