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P H
Feb 22,2017 11:24:39

Indonesia market update: Here comes the rain
 
Ahok, floods & stocks

Bad news for Ahok in the lead-up to the Jakarta Governor race: In spite of efforts by Jakarta’s governor, Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama, to prepare for and prevent flooding, 54 areas around the capital were paralyzed as water prevented travel (exhibit 3-4) given the water depth of up to two and a half meters in some places on the back of around 180mm rain intensity (2016: 157mm) in the past 24 hours. The weather bureau (BMKG) predicts the peak intensity of La Nina to stay until March 2017.  
   
2nd round Jakarta Governor campaign has started early: Dressed in a red parka (exhibit 2), Anies, Ahok’s competitor in the final round of the Jakarta Governor race, has managed to capitalize on the floods to raise his popularity ahead of the planned campaign scheduled for 6-15 April 2017.

Demonstration still took place despite flooding: The Jakarta floods did not deter an estimated 10,000 protestors (although much lower than the 100k participants previously forecast) from turning up in front of the parliament (exhibit 1), asking the government to remove Ahok from his Governor post. The rally was reportedly headed by Muslim forum FUI.    

Positively affected stocks: While all distribution channels are adversely affected by the floods, we believe there are sectors and stocks that could perform better than others under these conditions. Siloam Hospitals ($SILO) should see increased traffic as people get sick while the pharmaceutical sector is also likely to see some uptick from higher purchases of medicine to treat wide-ranging illnesses such as flu and skin diseases, benefiting Kalbe ($KLBF) and Sido Muncul ($SIDO). Additionally, during floodings, households and evacuation centers typically stock up on staple foods such as noodles, which would benefit Indofood Consumer Branded Products ($ICBP). During these times, smokers also have the propensity to smoke more, so we could see increased stick sales for Sampoerna ($HMSP). Within the commodities space, assuming continued downpours at Sumatra’s plantation estates, higher CPO prices might occur due to decreased output. This would benefit our favored plantation plays: Eagle High ($BWPT) and Tunas Baru ($TBLA).  

Adversely affected stocks: With the rains, cement, construction and coal companies could face operational delays. We also expect bread maker Nippon Indosari ($ROTI) to suffer (c.70% of sales in Greater Jakarta), as spoilage may be an issue due to the fresh nature of its products. Retailers could also be affected by the reduced traffic, particularly Ramayana ($RALS) whose low-end target customers lack cars for commuting. Traffic jams caused by flooding should spell bad news for transportation, adversely affecting both Blue Bird ($BIRD) and Express ($TAXI), as well as Garuda Indonesia ($GIAA), as flights may be delayed or cancelled.   

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P H
Dec 05,2016 15:04:32

Government increases stake in GIAA

Garuda Indonesia ($GIAA) has obtained IDR600bn (USD44mn) state-capital injection which will be implemented through a non-preemptive rights issuance (PMNTHEMETD) by adding 17.6mn shares at a price of IDR476/share. Through this transaction, the government’s ownership in GIAA would increase from 60.51% to 60.54%. Based on the schedule, the new shares will be listed on 9 December. We expect minimal dilution impact on the back of this transaction. (idnfinancials.com, Kontan, Bahana)

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P H
Dec 05,2016 14:42:37

GIAA memutuskan harga konversi setoran aset pemerintah ke saham pada harga Rp476. Pada APBN 1982/83, pemerintah melalui Departemen Perhubungan menyerahkan engine test cell ke GIAA yang dibeli pada harga Rp8,4 miliar. Kini aset tersebut dikonversi menjadi tambahan setoran modal pemerintah.

$GIAA

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P H
Dec 01,2016 23:27:54

GIAA: October passengers carried at 2.8mn, +5.7% y-y; New Surabaya-Madinah route

Garuda Indonesia ($GIAA) reported October 2016 passengers carried of 2.8mn (+5.7% yy), bringing 10M16 total passengers to 28.9mn (+6% y-y). Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) was 3.4bn, or +9.5% y-y (10M16: 35.6bn or 7.8% y-y), and Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) was 4.6bn or +16.6% y-y (10M16: 48.5bn or +13.6% y-y), with total October seat load factor (SLF) of 73.5%, down from 76.7% in September and 78.3% a year earlier. October domestic passengers carried reached 1.6mn, -1.6% y-y, while international passengers carried were up 13.4% y-y to around 356k. In October 2016, GIAA's total fleet reached 194 aircraft, up by 8 planes on a y-y basis. Separately, GIAA has reportedly opened Surabaya Madinah flight route to strengthen and expand its travel network particularly in the Middle East region. (Company, IQPlus).

Bahana comment: The increase in international market mainly resulted from GIAA’s route expansions to China and London.

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P H
Sep 29,2016 20:51:31

Garuda Indonesia ($GIAA) :  Pemulihan yang signifikan belum terlihat
 
·       Berdasarkan riset report Garuda Indonesia (GIAA), Anthony Lumawijaya mempertahankan rekomendasi SELL dengan TP tetap di IDR370 per lembar.

·       TP berdasarkan 0.86x 2016 P/BV ( -1SD dibawah rata-rata P/BVnya secara historis).

·       Anthony mengomentari hasil operasinal di bulan Agustus 2016.

·       Di segmen Domestik, Garuda Indonesia Revenue Passanger per Kilometer (RPK), serta Citilink anak usaha, turun -7.5% dan -15% MoM, lebih karena factor sessional. Sementara Passenger Yield , baik GIAA, dan Citilink masih turun -1.4% dan 5.3% YoY . Anthony melihat hal ini karena tekanan tariff / perang tariff dengan Batik Air dan juga Lion Air.

·       Di segmen International, RPK turun -1.2% MoM, namun naik +9% YoY.  Anthony melihat meningkatnya traffic, dibarengi dengan turunnya harga tiket. Dimana Passenger Yield masih turun 2.7% YoY, yang membawa rata-rata Yield turun -9.3% YoY.  Anthony melihat rendahnya harga minyak, mendorong sejumlah pesaing untuk menurunkan tariff, agar dapat mempertahankan pangsa pasar.

       Anthony memperkirakan kompetisi baik di segmen domestik maupun International akan terus berlanjut hingga akhir tahun. Karena itu, Anthony memperkirakan GIAA akan mencatat rugi bersih sebesar USD26juta di tahun ini. Dan pemulihan di tahun depan, seiring meredanya tekanan tariff.

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P H
Jul 27,2016 08:50:24
EARNINGS CALENDAR (Half Year 2016 - Estimated)

JULY 2016

Jul 25, 2016 :
$BBTN (Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 26, 2016
$BDMN (Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT)
$BMRI (Persero) Tbk PT Earnings Release - 4:00PM GMT+7

Jul 27, 2016
$AALI (Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT)
$HMSP (Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT)
$LPPF (Matahari Department Store Tbk PT)
$MPPA (Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT)
$PTBA (Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 28, 2016
$ASII (Astra International Tbk PT)
$BEST (Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk PT)
$BJBR (PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk)
$DOID (Bloomberg)
$NCO (Vale Indonesia Tbk PT)
$JPFA (Bloomberg)
$PSAB (Bloomberg)
$SSMS (Bloomberg)
$SMGR (Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$UNTR (United Tractors Tbk PT)
$UNVR (Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT)

Jul 29, 2016
$ASRI (Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT)
$ADHI (Bloomberg)
$BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk PT)
$BNGA (Bloomberg)
$BNLI (Bloomberg)
$BNII (Bloomberg)
$BKSL (Bloomberg)
$BHIT (Bloomberg)
$BISI (Bloomberg)
$CPIN (Bloomberg)
$CTRA (Ciputra Development Tbk PT)
$CTRP (Bloomberg)
$ELSA (Bloomberg)
$GIAA (Bloomberg)
$GJTL (Bloomberg)
$GGRM (Gudang Garam Tbk PT)
$NKP (Bloomberg)
$INTP (Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT)
$INDF (Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$ICBP (Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$INDY (Bloomberg)
$KARW (Bloomberg)
$KAEF (Bloomberg)
$KIJA (Bloomberg)
$KLBF (Kalbe Farma Tbk PT)
$KRAS (Bloomberg)
$LPKR (Lippo Karawaci Tbk PT)
$LSIP (Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk PT)
$MAPI (Bloomberg)
$PWON (Bloomberg)
$PNBN, $PNLF, $PNIN (Bloomberg)
$PTPP (Bloomberg)
$RALS (Bloomberg)
$SMRA (Bloomberg)
$TBLA (Bloomberg)
$TLKM (Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$TOTL (Bloomberg)
$WSKT (Bloomberg)

AUGUST 2016
Aug 1, 2016
$HRUM (Harum Energy Tbk PT)
$SSIA (Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT)

Aug 10, 2016
$ITMG (Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk PT)

Aug 12, 2016
$EXCL (XL Axiata Tbk PT)

Aug 29, 2016
$ADRO (Adaro Energy Tbk PT)
$ANTM (Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk PT)
$BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$ISAT (Indosat Tbk PT)
$PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

SEPTEMBER

Sep 13, 2016
$SMCB (Holcim Indonesia)

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P H
Jul 13,2016 09:20:24
GIAA: Maskapai penerbangan nasional Garuda Indonesia kembali mengharumkan nama Indonesia dalam dunia penerbangan internasional. Untuk ketiga kalinya Garuda Meraih World's Best Cabin Staff

$GIAA
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P H
Jun 23,2016 23:25:42
Garuda Indonesia (GIAA): Buckle up

Downgrade to HOLD with a slightly lower TP
We downgrade GIAA to HOLD because of strong share-price performance
YTD and lack of positive catalysts. We slightly lower our TP to IDR440
(based on 6.3x EV/EBITDAR) due to lower earnings forecasts. Our
multiple target is 15% higher than regional peers, but we think it is
justified because of GIAA’s higher domestic business which provides
earnings stability.

Improving May numbers but might not be enough
GIAA’s May-16 operational numbers suggest, in our view, there are no
significant improvements. Load factor (74.2%) improved 4.9% MoM but
that was, in our view, partly due to seasonality. YoY it was still down
1.5%. Passenger yield remained under pressure at USD6.9c (+2.9% MoM, -
8.2% YoY). The weak load factor and passenger yield suggest continued
competition in the industry. We believe competition for both
international and domestic markets will continue throughout the year
and poses a risk of further dragging down GIAA’s operational numbers in
the following quarters.

Downgrade earnings on lower operational numbers
We downgrade our FY16-17F earnings forecast by -12% and -10%
respectively to reflect tight competition in both domestic and
international markets. We expect net profit for FY16-17F to be USD69m
(-10% YoY) and 97m (+41% YoY) respectively. Note that we have factored
in gains in sales & leaseback of USD22m for FY2016. Our earnings
forecasts are 23% and 11% lower than consensus.

Oil now serves as a downside risk
Oil prices have increased almost 90% to USD49/bbl from its low level of
USD26/bbl. We see downside risk to our 2016 earnings forecasts as GIAA
currently only hedges less than 8% of fuel needs or around 1m barrels.
Ceteris paribus, we estimate every USD1 increase in oil prices would
lower our earnings forecast by 12-13%.
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P H
May 16,2016 09:07:34
MSCI INDONESIA SMALL CAP INDEX
Additions: Garuda Indonesia (GIAA)

Deletions: Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate (BEST) & Tiphone Mobile Indonesia (TELE)

MSCI INDONESIA STANDARD INDEX
Additions: Waskita Karya Persero (WSKT)
Deletions: Astra Agro Lestari (AALI)

$GIAA $BEST $TELE $WSKT $AALI


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P H
May 09,2016 17:24:36
Garuda Indonesia to move its operation to new Terminal 3 Ultimate on 15 June 2016.

$GIAA

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P H
Apr 14,2016 08:44:04
Tips trading buat hari ini  Kamis, tanggal 14 April 2016  :

1.IHSG kemarin semerbak dengan saham-saham kecil dengan kenaikan yang luar biasa, sedangkan saham baking masih tertekan, kecuali saham ASII.
Tidak usah peduli banget sama market yang susah naik dengan blue chips, kalau banyak saham kecil yang terbang dan memberikan cuan.

2.Jadi mendingan kita bahas satu persatu deh saham-saham yang naik luar biasa.

3.ELSA :Saham ini break out dengan volume yang luar biasa, saham ini jika mampu bertahan diatas level 450, maka targetnya masih jauh yaitu sekitar 630-650.Namun jika tidak mampu bertahan diatas level 450, sebaiknya take profit dulu.

4.GIAA : Saham ini sudah dimainkan 4 hari berturut-turut, so sebaiknya hati-hati, kemarin mencoba menembus level 600, namun tidak kuat sehingga turun kembali dibawah 600, target terdekat adalah 650. Risk lebih besar dari rewards, so main saham ini sebaiknya main cepat saja.

5.ANTM : Saham ini diisukan target menuju 800, kenaikan dalam 2 hari terakhir terlalu cepat, sehingga dapat saja terjadi konsolidasi dahulu, namun jika bertahan diatas level 630, maka saham ini otw menuju 800.

6.TINS : Saham ini sebentar lagi menuju level 1000, so sebaiknya hati-hati jika sudah mencapai level 1000, karena targetnya sudah dekat yaitu 1100.

7.PTBA : Saham ini menguji level 7825, jika mampu tembus level 7825, maka akan menguji level 8000, dengan target 10.000-12.000

8.INCO : Saham ini berpeluang menguji level 2000, dengan target terdekat 2045-2050, target mid term adalah 2700, dengan syarat harus mampu tembus dan bertahan diatas level 2050.

9.ERAA : Saham ini menguji level 800-810, jika tembus maka targetnya akan lumayan jauh, yaitu 1200, dengan syarat harus mampu bertahan diatas level 800.

10.ADRO :Saham ini otw to 800, saham ini ada small resist di level 760. nampak ADRO tidak akan sulit menembus level small resist tsb.

$IHSG $ELSA $GIAA $ANTM $TINS $PTBA $INCO $ERAA $ADRO
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P H
Apr 14,2016 08:42:36
Tips trading buat hari ini  Kamis, tanggal 14 April 2016  :

1.IHSG kemarin semerbak dengan saham-saham kecil dengan kenaikan yang luar biasa, sedangkan saham baking masih tertekan, kecuali saham ASII.
Tidak usah peduli banget sama market yang susah naik dengan blue chips, kalau banyak saham kecil yang terbang dan memberikan cuan.

2.Jadi mendingan kita bahas satu persatu deh saham-saham yang naik luar biasa.

3.ELSA :Saham ini break out dengan volume yang luar biasa, saham ini jika mampu bertahan diatas level 450, maka targetnya masih jauh yaitu sekitar 630-650.Namun jika tidak mampu bertahan diatas level 450, sebaiknya take profit dulu.

4.GIAA : Saham ini sudah dimainkan 4 hari berturut-turut, so sebaiknya hati-hati, kemarin mencoba menembus level 600, namun tidak kuat sehingga turun kembali dibawah 600, target terdekat adalah 650. Risk lebih besar dari rewards, so main saham ini sebaiknya main cepat saja.

5.ANTM : Saham ini diisukan target menuju 800, kenaikan dalam 2 hari terakhir terlalu cepat, sehingga dapat saja terjadi konsolidasi dahulu, namun jika bertahan diatas level 630, maka saham ini otw menuju 800.

6.TINS : Saham ini sebentar lagi menuju level 1000, so sebaiknya hati-hati jika sudah mencapai level 1000, karena targetnya sudah dekat yaitu 1100.
PTBA : Saham ini menguji level 7825, jika mampu tembus level 7825, maka akan menguji level 8000, dengan target 10.000-12.000

7.INCO : Saham ini berpeluang menguji level 2000, dengan target terdekat 2045-2050, target mid term adalah 2700, dengan syarat harus mampu tembus dan bertahan diatas level 2050.

8.ERAA : Saham ini menguji level 800-810, jika tembus maka targetnya akan lumayan jauh, yaitu 1200, dengan syarat harus mampu bertahan diatas level 800.

9.ADRO :Saham ini otw to 800, saham ini ada small resist di level 760. nampak ADRO tidak akan sulit menembus level small resist tsb.

$IHSG $ELSA $GIAA $ANTM $TINS $INCO $ERAA $ADRO
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P H
Feb 18,2016 23:24:14
Garuda Indonesia (GIAA): Kembali raih penghargaan maskapai bintang lima

• Dikutip dari Investor Daily, Maskapai nasional flag carrier Garuda Indonesia ($GIAA) meraih penghargaan sebagai Maskapai Bintang Lima (5 Star Airline) untuk kedua kalinya dariu Skytrax, lembaga independen pemeringkat penerbangan global berbasis di London, Inggris.

• Dari total lebih dari 200 maskapai penerbangan di seluruh dunia, saat ini hanya terdapat 7 maskapai bintang lima yaitu Garuda Indonesia, Singapore Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Qatar Airways, Asiana Airline, All Nippon Airlines, dan Hainan Airlines.
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P H
Feb 16,2016 14:52:30

Garuda Indonesia ($GIAA) recorded a net profit of US$78m in 2015, compared to a net loss of US$368.91m in 2014.The company carried 23.5m passengers in 2015, a 9.3% increase from 21.5m in 2014. It managed to decrease operational costs by 18.1% from US$3.68bn to US$3.07bn, and 60% of this decrease was due to lower fuel costs. Garuda Indonesia is also planning to issue global bonds worth US$500m within the first half of 2015.

Bear
P H
May 11,2015 12:44:30
Domestic tourism on rise as weak rupiah discourages int’l travels. The number of airline passengers travelling within the country in Jan-Mar rose 13% YoY to 15.2m from 13.5m. Meanwhile, the number of Indonesians travelling to int’l destinations fell by 3.54% YoY to 3.2m. Astindo (Indo Air Ticketing Companies Association) estimates a drop of 7%-8% in outbound tourists this year. $GIAA
Bull
P H
May 11,2015 12:41:44
Garuda Indonesia (GIAA) booked 1Q net profit of US$11.3m (15% of cons) vs loss of $168m last year and 4 consecutive years of losses prior. The company is also guiding for another quarter of profit in 2Q.
Bull
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise.
GIAA
360.00 6.00 (1.64%)
Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.
Last Update 02:54:11