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P H
Jun 13,2017 18:18:49

Our recent conversation with management of Indofood Sukses Makmur ($INDF) revealed more details on the recent Pluit land transaction:

  • Indofood revealed that Mr. Salim had previously received an offer from an independent third party to acquire the land for commercial development, priced at premium price. Hence, the company believes that the land price on the transaction (IDR51m per sqm) should be fair and reasonable. The transaction price is in line with independent valuator assessment.
  • Mr. Salim have opted to sell the land to AIM (Indofood subsidiary) as, in doing so, Salim Ivomas would be able to continue running its cooking oil production facility there. Then, Salim Ivomas will pay land rental fee to AIM which fee determined on arm-length basis. AIM will finance the acquisition via equity injection and debts.
  • AIM is owned by Indofood Sukses Makmur, Indofood CBP ($ICBP), London Sumatra ($LSIP) and Indofood Sukses Makmur ($INDF). The company is consolidated on Indofood Sukses Makmur’s balance sheet. INDF just increased its ownership on AIM, partly to finance the land acquisition.
  • Indofood does not have plan to convert the Pluit land into commercial areas, so far. According to the management, based on Jakarta’s local government permit, the Pluit land can still be used for manufacturing activities until around 2020. According to Jakarta’s zoning and spatial maps, which are issued by the local government, the purchased lands are in the K1 zone – where space is designated for office, commercial and service buildings. Mixed-use buildings can also be built on K1- zone land, with land spanning 20,000 sqm at minimum.
  • Since the announcement of this inter-companies transaction, INDF share price down 5%, which we believe mainly pressured on investor’s concern on how fair the price of the land may be.

  • We maintain BUY on Indofood Sukses Makmur, with a DCF-based IDR10,300 TP (22% upside) that also implies 19x/17x FY17F-18F P/Es respectively. (Andrey Wijaya)




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P H
Apr 11,2017 15:09:36

Post-China Minzhong divestment, Indofood’s balance sheet became healthier with lower debt. Net gearing declined to 0.2x as at end-Dec 2016 (from 0.5x end-Sep 2016). Our ground checks suggest Indofood’s flour and CBP retail selling prices increased in Dec 2016 and January. These higher ASPs are likely the result of the pass on costs from the increase costs especially cost of goods sold (COGS) in 4Q16. We maintain our BUY recommendation with a DCF-based IDR10,300 TP (28% upside), implying 19x and 16x FY17F-18F P/Es respectively.

  • Healthier balance sheet. Indofood Sukses Makmur’s ($INDF) balance sheet is healthier after the China Minzhong divestment, which was completed at end 2016. Proceeds from the divestment were used to pay its debt, which saw a decline to IDR22trn (-30% QoQ) at end-Dec 2016 (from IDR32trn at end-Sep 2016). Net debt-to-equity ratio declined to 0.2x (from 0.5x) with its foreign currency debt exposure declining to 37% (from 50%) in the same period. Going forward, we also expect financing costs to decline.
      
  • Raised ASPs. Our ground checks indicate that the retail selling price of Indofood’s flour Cakra Kembar and Segitiga Biru rose by around 10% and 5% MoM, respectively in Dec 2016. Furthermore, in January the retail selling prices of its subsidiary, Indofood CBP ($ICBP)’s products such as instant noodle and RTD-tea also increased. These higher ASPs are likely to improve EBIT margin. Notably, Indofood’s flour and consumer branded products’ (CBP) 4Q16 EBIT margin narrowed, driven by higher costs. Maintan BUY with IDR10,300 TP, implying 19x/16x FY17F-18F P/Es respectively.
      
  • 4Q16 earnings in line. Indofood’s 4Q16 earning came in at IDR905bn (- 10.4% QoQ), in line with expectations. EBIT margin widened to 13.9% in 4Q16 (from 12.2% in 3Q16) thanks to its improved agribusiness earnings. However, it was offset by lower financing income and lower income from associates. (Andrey Wijaya)
      
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P H
Dec 02,2016 13:21:30

ICBP: Continue to Innovate
 
ICBP membukukan pertumbuhan pendapatan +9,9% YoY menjadi Rp 26,47 triliun atau menurun -10,3% QoQ. Laba bersih pun meningkat menjadi +15,9% YoY menjadi Rp2,83 triliun atau menurun -17,6% QoQ. Kami tetap memiliki pandangan positif untuk ICBP mengingat variasi produk yang terus dikembangkan. Sebagai kesimpulan kami merekomendasikan BELI untuk ICBP dengan target harga Rp11.500/saham, mengimplikasikan pertumbuhan EPS sebesar 18% pada FY17 dengan PE 28,8x FY7F.
 

$ICBP $INDF

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P H
Nov 30,2016 11:45:13

Indonesia Strategy: Managing Volatility
We opine that Indonesia’s fundamentals remain pointed towards long-term positives. This is underpinned by BI’s pro-growth policies to propel economic growth, the low inflation environment, continued government focus on infrastructure spending, and the security forces’ exemplary conduct in maintaining stability as political tensions rise. Thus, we expect stronger market direction post the Fed’s anticipated rate hike in December.

¨ Outflows dominate. Worries over a potential US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase and weakening IDR have triggered outflows in both the equities and fixed income markets. This is a reversal after months of inflows. Post Donald Trump’s win in the recent US elections, the JCI continues to trade at sub-5,200 level, with outflows recorded at IDR9.6tnin November. Similarly, outflows in the fixed income market have deepened, reaching IDR17trn over the past month, with the 10-year government bond continuing to escalate to 8.3% (August: +6.3%). Arguably, a lack of catalysts in the market have also led to the insipid performances, and we are only expecting stronger market direction post the Fed rate increase that is expected by mid-December.

¨ The three spectres are currency, interest rate trends and politics. As highlighted in our 14 Nov 2016 Currency Woes Dampen Sentiment report, the fundamentals still point towards a resilient IDR. This is underpinned by its high-yield differential vs developed market (DM) economies and peers, relatively high levels of growth among major emerging market (EM) economies, and ongoing reforms. Rising current account deficit (CAD) over the next few years is still manageable, while forex reserve levels also improved to USD115bn.

¨ Action by Bank Indonesia (BI) to intervene in the currency market is plausible to indicate direction. An influx of asset repatriation is also expected towards year-end, which would help the IDR to recuperate to a more favourable level. We opine that BI would maintain its current relaxation bias policy to propel economic growth, especially given the subdued inflationary outlook. As the series of rate cuts have yet to result in a meaningful economic trajectory, it is unlikely that the central bank would take the risk by reversing its current relaxation policy.

¨ Over the past five years, the spread between the BI rate and inflation has averaged 130bps vs the current 145bps spread. This provides room for further relaxation if needed. We expect BI to maintain its current benchmark rate until year-end, and potentially make another 25bps cut in early 2017 to further support economic growth under stable IDR circumstances.

¨ Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama’s alleged religious defamation has raised the political landscape’s temperature, as seen by the magnitude of the anti-Basuki rally that occurred earlier this month. This upheaval is negatively perceived by investors, especially after >2 years of stable politics. The market is likely to take heed of the next rally and, more importantly, how the Government handles the situation. So far, the security forces have been exemplary in restoring stability. We continue to believe that the Government’s position remains strong. As long as these forces remain united under presidential control, any act that destabilises the country can be brought under control quickly.

¨ Commodity plays and blue chips. We like PP London Sumatra (Lonsum) and United Tractors as commodity plays. Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI), Astra International, Ciputra Development, Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD), Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Telkom), Indofood Sukses Makmur and Waskita Karya are all stocks with strong fundamentals. (Helmy Kristanto)

$LSIP $BBNI $CTRA $BSDE $TLKM $INDF $WSKT

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P H
Nov 25,2016 15:22:52

BUY INDF 7375


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P H
Nov 23,2016 08:48:45

Did you know?  That ICBP’s Indomie instant noodle has more than 40 different flavors? Since inception in Sept 1970, Indomie has been the leading instant noodle in Indonesia and around the world.
 
Offering different flavor such as Fried Noodle, Soto Mie, Tom Yum, Bulgogi, and Real Meat, Indomie is now available in more than 100 countries. Also worth noting that in present day, Indonesia is the second largest instant noodle consumer in the world at 14.5bn packs/year, after China which consumes 44bn packs/year.

Indofood ($INDF) through its subsidiary Indofood CBP ($ICBP) has been innovative with its products to appeal to “demanding” customers both domestically and overseas.  As such, we can see a wide range of products from the company now available for our choosing.

New product launch is a key strategy for all consumer companies to grab market share.  Reason why we see consumer staple companies such as Unilever ($UNVR) and Wings also aggressively launching new line of products.

Today consumer analyst Merlissa Trisno points out that INDF will keep its pace in product launch to grab market share.  INDF will see stronger revenue growth potential for its CBP division at 12.3% in 17CL driven by its new products launching particularly in the dairy and beverage divisions.

However, due to potentially weaker Rupiah assumption and higher soft commodity prices (ie. CPO, sugar, skimmed milk), we estimate 50bps lower Ebit margin for 17CL.
 
Thus, Merlissa expects lower earnings growth potential for 17CL at high single-digit level of 8.1% as compared to 25.6% in 16CL.

While higher CPO price results in higher cost for CBP, INDF the parent company is a net beneficiary given its upstream plantation exposure (15-20% of Ebit).  4Q16 CPO price has exceeded RM2,800/t (+5% qoq) and close to RM3,000/t in the week of November 11.
 
This spells upside for our current regional CPO price forecast of RM2,450/t and RM2,600/t in 16-17CL respectively.  Our sensitivity analysis suggests that for every 10% CPO price increase it translates to 6-8% EPS upside at INDF level, all else equal.

Merlissa’s thesis on CPO is supported by CLSA’s plantation analyst, Chuanyao Lu (CY), who in his latest report emphasized the persistent low inventory level in Malaysia and China due to El-Nino aftermath.  CPO inventories in Malaysia stood at 1.57mt which is virtually unchanged from Sep and is 45% lower compared to 2015.

As such, CY expects CPO prices to continue its uptrend.  And with production recovery on the horizon, we expect this to translate into better earnings for the industry.

Circling back to INDF, Merlissa highlights that INDF claims that the SGD416m proceed from 52.9% China Minzhong (SG:K2N) divestment will likely be received around December 2016, subject to the delisting and privatization process in SGX.  Merlissa has incorporated ~Rp370bn divestment loss in her 2016 financial forecast.
 
Post the transaction, net gearing will drop to 17% in 2016-17CL, from 33% in 2015.  We estimate interest cost saving of around Rp100bn but with lower earnings contribution from Minzhong which might lead to a net net Rp60-70bn cut in 2017 earnings.

In summary, Merlissa adjusts INDF’s EPS down by 6% for 17CL and 4.1% for 18CL to factor in a lower EPS assumption for the CBP division and lower Minzhong ownership (from 82.9% to 29.9%).
 
Despite lower earnings assumptions, Merlissa maintains her BUY recommendation and target price at Rp10,500/sh for INDF as she rolls forward her SOTP-based valuation to end-2017.  The target price implies a 20x 17CL PE.

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P H
Nov 23,2016 08:44:47

Did you know?  That ICBP’s Indomie instant noodle has more than 40 different flavors? Since inception in Sept 1970, Indomie has been the leading instant noodle in Indonesia and around the world.
 
Offering different flavor such as Fried Noodle, Soto Mie, Tom Yum, Bulgogi, and Real Meat, Indomie is now available in more than 100 countries. Also worth noting that in present day, Indonesia is the second largest instant noodle consumer in the world at 14.5bn packs/year, after China which consumes 44bn packs/year.

Indofood ($INDF) through its subsidiary Indofood CBP ($ICBP) has been innovative with its products to appeal to “demanding” customers both domestically and overseas.  As such, we can see a wide range of products from the company now available for our choosing.

New product launch is a key strategy for all consumer companies to grab market share.  Reason why we see consumer staple companies such as Unilever ($UNVR) and Wings also aggressively launching new line of products.

Today consumer analyst Merlissa Trisno points out that INDF will keep its pace in product launch to grab market share.  INDF will see stronger revenue growth potential for its CBP division at 12.3% in 17CL driven by its new products launching particularly in the dairy and beverage divisions.

However, due to potentially weaker Rupiah assumption and higher soft commodity prices (ie. CPO, sugar, skimmed milk), we estimate 50bps lower Ebit margin for 17CL.
 
Thus, Merlissa expects lower earnings growth potential for 17CL at high single-digit level of 8.1% as compared to 25.6% in 16CL.

While higher CPO price results in higher cost for CBP, INDF the parent company is a net beneficiary given its upstream plantation exposure (15-20% of Ebit).  4Q16 CPO price has exceeded RM2,800/t (+5% qoq) and close to RM3,000/t in the week of November 11.
 
This spells upside for our current regional CPO price forecast of RM2,450/t and RM2,600/t in 16-17CL respectively.  Our sensitivity analysis suggests that for every 10% CPO price increase it translates to 6-8% EPS upside at INDF level, all else equal.

Merlissa’s thesis on CPO is supported by CLSA’s plantation analyst, Chuanyao Lu (CY), who in his latest report emphasized the persistent low inventory level in Malaysia and China due to El-Nino aftermath.  CPO inventories in Malaysia stood at 1.57mt which is virtually unchanged from Sep and is 45% lower compared to 2015.

As such, CY expects CPO prices to continue its uptrend.  And with production recovery on the horizon, we expect this to translate into better earnings for the industry.

Circling back to INDF, Merlissa highlights that INDF claims that the S$416m proceed from 52.9% China Minzhong (SG:K2N) divestment will likely be received around December 2016, subject to the delisting and privatization process in SGX.  Merlissa has incorporated ~Rp370bn divestment loss in her 2016 financial forecast.
 
Post the transaction, net gearing will drop to 17% in 2016-17CL, from 33% in 2015.  We estimate interest cost saving of around Rp100bn but with lower earnings contribution from Minzhong which might lead to a net net Rp60-70bn cut in 2017 earnings.

In summary, Merlissa adjusts INDF’s EPS down by 6% for 17CL and 4.1% for 18CL to factor in a lower EPS assumption for the CBP division and lower Minzhong ownership (from 82.9% to 29.9%).
 
Despite lower earnings assumptions, Merlissa maintains her BUY recommendation and target price at Rp10,500/sh for INDF as she rolls forward her SOTP-based valuation to end-2017.  The target price implies a 20x 17CL PE.

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P H
Nov 14,2016 10:00:51

Strategy: Currency Woes Dampen Sentiment

Sharp correction in JCI (down 4% on Friday) was mainly triggered by precipitous IDR weakening on external factors, while domestic macro improvements remain on track. We believe fundamentals still point to a resilient IDR, especially given Indonesia’s relatively high levels of growth among major EM economies. Consumer, pharmaceutical, poultry and high-end retailers would be at risk of IDR weakening, while commodities and heavy equipment players tend to benefit. High dividend yield stocks also offer protection in the current volatile market. Maintain LT positive view.

¨ Currency volatility is back on. Fears over potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike resulted in IDR falling by up to 3% to IDR13,545/USD onFriday. Considerable IDR weakening could lead to higher production costs and potential cost overruns in certain infrastructure projects, which would lead to higher inflation and growth risks. Strong foreign fund inflows have also increased risks.

¨ Indonesia is still on track for macro improvement, in our view particularly with its rising forex reserve of USD115bn and potential influx of repatriated funds by end-2016. However, the weakening IDR is seen as the main spectre for investors and its occurrence could trigger a market melt-down due to panic selling, shifting focus away from real fundamentals. Thus, BI’s firm response and action would be critical in restoring stability and confidence, in our view. We opine that IDR volatility would still linger before it recovers to IDR13,200/USD by end-2016.

¨ Stronger fundamentals now. There have been several episodes of high IDR volatility, with the last one occurring during 2014-15, when IDR depreciated as much as 30% and JCI suffered 13% losses. In our view, the current situation is different especially given the positive macro environment, in contrast to the subdued economic situation during 2014-15,on BI’s tightening rate policy bias.

¨ BI is already in the market to stabilise the currency given considerable depreciation in IDR, and we view this intervention as plausible to show direction. Current account deficit also remains manageable at 2.1% in 9M16 (3Q16: 1.8%) vs peak of 4.3% in 2014.We expect IDR to weaken slightly to 13,600/USD by 3Q17 on the back of larger current account deficit and potential Fed rate hike.

¨ Resilient IDR. In summary, we opine that fundamentals point to a resilient IDR, underpinned by high yield differentials vs developed market (DM) economies and peers, relatively high levels of growth among major emerging market (EM) economies, and ongoing reforms. Domestic consumption and government-led infrastructure spending also continue to serve as supporting factors for economic growth improvements and we still expect the economy to grow at 5.3% in 2017.

¨ Impact of weakening IDR. IDR weakening would impact corporate earnings through operational currency mismatch and/or forex debt translation. Consumer, pharmaceutical, poultry and high-end retailers have high importation costs and would be at risk. Conversely, exporters such as commodities and heavy equipment players would tend to benefit. Companies with high USD debt would also be negatively impacted if IDR weakening continues.

¨ All in, commodities and high dividend yield stocks offer some shield, in our view. We like London Sumatra and United Tractors as commodity plays, while Indocement Tunggal and Hexindo Adiperkasa offer highest dividend yields. Stocks with strong fundamentals for potential bottom-fishing include Bank Negara Indonesia, Astra International, Ciputra Development, Bumi Serpong Damai, Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Indofood Sukses Makmur and Waskita Karya. (Helmy Kristanto)

$BBNI $ASII $CTRA $ BSDE $TLKM $INDF $WSKT $UNTR $LSIP $INTP $HEXA

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P H
Nov 10,2016 23:01:55

Trump victory - the impact on Indonesia
 
JCI went into considerable correction, down as much as 2.4% during the intraday, following the prospect of Trump’s winning. Selling pressure were visible across sector, with IDR also depreciated 0.9%. Closer to end of trading hour, market slightly improved mainly led by a rebound on commodity counters, with index closed down 1% with IDR relatively flat.
 
The Trump’s winning undoubtedly creates uncertainty, especially on the execution and direction of what would be the policy under his administrative, on both economy and politic. According to our economist, historical facts imply that a clean sweep tends to be more positive for the US economy in general because of less gridlock. As such, with Republican sweep (Trump President and GOP Congress), fiscal policy, both from higher spending and lower taxes, is likely to be more expansionary over the next four years on average. It is still too early to conclude for any potential downward revision on economic growth at this stage.
 
One of the main concerns of the Trump administration would be on potential trade protectionist (anti-trade) issue. In regards of Indonesia, the main export products to the US would be textile, rubber product, shoes, electronics and F&B with export to US accounts for 12% of total non oil and gas export. However, the impact the share of export to GDP in Indonesia remains the lowest in the region at 22% (Vs Thailand’s 58%, Malaysia 73% and Singapore 198%), which would provide much-needed shelter under global economy volatility circumstances. Domestic consumption and government-led infrastructure spending continue to serve as the underpinning factors for economic growth improvement and we still expect economy growth at 5.3% in 2017.

Our economist still expect that the Fed is likely to go ahead with its tightening policy bias and raise rate by 25 bps this December. As such, one of the palpable risks would be on currency of which IDR has enjoyed 5% appreciation ytd. Any sudden increase in volatility could risk of escalation of importation of raw material and potential cost overrun in certain infra projects, which undoubtedly will led to inflation and growth risk. In our view, this risk would be contained, especially as: 1. Indonesia rising forex reserve of USD115b and expected to reach USD150b by 2017; 2. Repatriation fund inflow by end of the year; and 3. Record low inflation outlook at sub-4% level.
 
Acknowledging potential change in global trade and politics, Indonesia with its domestic consumption at the core, remains to offer attractive investment thesis. At this stage, we see no change on Indonesia fundamental investment story, and maintain our constructive view mainly underpin by macro improvement and government-led infrastructure investment. Our top picks in the market mainly comprise of company with strong balance and visible earnings growth and they are: $BBNI, $CTRA, $BSDE, $TLKM, $INDF and $WSKT. To play on the positive rally on the commodity, we like LSIP and UNTR. (Helmy Kristanto)

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P H
Nov 08,2016 19:08:47

Escalation in political tension; Macro improvement remains intact

While demonstration arguably has became part of life in Jakarta, last Friday’s demonstration would be one of the largest, reported to gather c. 50,000 people. The action were joined by many Moslem organisations from several regions to protest against Basuki T. Purnama (Ahok) on the allegation of religious defamation. The demonstration was mostly running in peace and calm order, but suddenly escalate into chaos at c.6 pm, the cut off time limit given by police. Couple of police trucks were burned with several casualty was reported on both side. The chaos only occurred in two specific locations, outside the Presidential Palace and one location in North Jakarta, with one Indomaret convenience store was looted. On Sunday, the police mentioned that the perpetrators of chaos in North Jakarta were unrelated to the one in Presidential Palace, and appears to be purely criminal act.

3 key messages from President Jokowi

We were encouraged by the way of the police and army to act quickly to restore the stability with tear gas, water cannon and truncheons, with strict order that rubber bullet was not allowed to be used. The situation was mostly under control past midnight.

Presiden Jokowi held press conference on early Saturday, with 3 key messages: 1. He condemned the chaos and violent demonstration;2. The legal process of Jakarta governor alleged transgressions would be concluded quickly and transparently and 3. Political actors are believed to ride on yesterday's chaos. In our view, the third points would signify escalation of political tension, which would led the government to make stronger intelligence effort and beef up security to prevent the whole situation to heighten. President Jokowi has also delayed his trip to Australia (scheduled: 6-8 Nov) to focus in restoring domestic stability.

Negative pressure is expected but macro improvement is still on tract

JCI has priced in a peaceful rally on Friday, with index closed up +0.6% ( +1.1% from Friday's low). Selling pressure is expected to happen on Monday, especially on the potential higher volatility of IDR.

There is also growing concern in relation to the prospect of asset repatriation under the current tax amnesty scheme. While the repatriation has been reported to the tax office, the physical transfer of that assets are still underway, with deadline by end of December. As such, it is imperative for the government to act quickly to restore confidence.

Despite Friday’s chaos, we see no change on Indonesia fundamental investment story, underpin by macro improvement and government-led infrastructure investment. Our top pick in the market are: $BBNI, $CTRA, $BSDE, $TLKM, $INDF and $WSKT.

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P H
Nov 04,2016 09:21:10

Menakar kelezatan pertumbuhan bisnis ICBP

PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk membukukan kinerja yang memuaskan pada sembilan bulan pertama tahun ini. Emiten berkode ICBP ini berhasil mencetak pertumbuhan laba 15% menjadi Rp 2,83 triliun.

Analis Panin Sekuritas I Dewa Agung Trisna mengatakan, kinerja ICBP akan tetap tumbuh didorong hadirnya produk-produk baru yang disukai konsumen.

"Kami melihat emiten konsumer itu dari sudut pandang apakah dia bisa menggaet konsumen? Konsumen cenderung suka produk-baru baru. Kami lihat ICBP ini terus berinovasi," kata Agung kepada KONTAN, Kamis (3/11).

Agung menjelaskan, di semester pertama lalu, ICBP meluncurkan produk baru seperti, Chitato rasa Indomie dan Indomie Bite Mie. Produk ini berhasil meningkatkan volume penjualan 16,5%.

ICBP juga merilis produk terbaru yaitu Indomilk rasa pisang dan Chitato Foodie. Adapun di kuartal tiga 2016, ICBP meluncurkan varian baru pada segmen mi instan, yaitu Super Mie Ayam Opor.

Untuk makanan ringan, ICBP menelurkan Chiki rasa rumput laut dan juga varian baru dari merek snack Jetz. ICBP pun merambah segmen kelas menengah atas dengan produk seperti Indomie Real Meat. "Kami yakin marginnya lebih bagus daripada Indomie biasa," ujar Agung.

Analis Daewoo Securities Dang Maulida lewat risetnya, Senin (31/10), mengungkapkan, di sembilan bulan pertama tahun ini, semua segmen usaha ICBP tumbuh. Pendapatan segmen dairy tumbuh 20,63% menjadi Rp 5,23 triliun, karena pertumbuhan dari segi volume dan profitabilitas.

Hal ini didukung oleh harga susu bubuk skim yang lebih rendah tahun ini. Kontribusi segmen ini naik dari 18% tahun lalu menjadi 19,77% dari total pendapatan ICBP.

Menurut Dang, peningkatan kontribusi segmen dairy diikuti dengan penurunan kontribusi segmen mi instan jadi 64,2%. Selama ini mi instan jadi kontributor utama ICBP. Di sembilan bulan pertama 2015, kontribusi segmen mi instan mencapai 65,4%.

"Pergeseran ini bermanfaat bagi ICBP karena mencerminkan kontribusi pendapatan yang lebih seimbang dari tiap segmen dalam jangka menengah atau panjang," kata Dang.

Selain itu, segmen minuman ICBP juga mengalami pertumbuhan volume 3%, meningkat dari pertumbuhan 1% sepanjang paruh pertama tahun ini. Peluncuran produk baru di kuartal tiga, yaitu Cafèla Expresso, mengerek porsi segmen ini.

Untuk tahun ini, Dang memprediksi ICBP bisa membukukan pendapatan Rp 36,2 triliun, naik 13,9% ketimbang tahun lalu. Laba bersih ICBP diperkirakan bisa tumbuh 25,4% ke Rp 3,76 triliun.

Untuk tahun depan, Dang menganalisa ICBP bisa meraup pendapatan Rp 39,9 triliun dan laba bersih Rp 4,3 triliun. Dia merekomendasikan buy ICBP dengan target harga Rp 11.800 per saham.

Analis UOB Kay Hian Stevanus Juanda dalam risetnya, Senin (31/10), menaikkan proyeksi pendapatan ICBP pada 2016 dan 2017 masing-masing 2,8% dan 4,7%. "Kami perkiraan EBIT margin sedikit lebih agresif dibandingkan dengan guidance ICBP," ujarnya.

Stevanus merekomendasikan hold ICBP dengan target harga Rp 9.250 per saham. Harga saham ICBP telah merefleksikan beberapa berita baik.

Sementara itu, dengan adanya inovasi produk, Agung merekomendasikan buy ICBP dengan target harga Rp 11.500 per saham, meski PE-nya mahal.

"Konsumer memang mahal karena defensif, tapi kami juga lihat dari strategi perusahaan, bukan sekadar PE. Tahun depan, PE-nya bisa naik sekitar 30-an karena rata-rata PE saham konsumer memang 30-an," ujar Agung.

$ICBP $INDF

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P H
Sep 14,2016 11:04:46

Indofood Sukses Makmur: Minzhong Divestment Close to Deal

Marvellous Glory (Marvellous) offers to buy 82.9% stakes in China Minzhong (Minzhong) which is owned by Indofood Sukses (Indofood). We see this divestment should unlock Indofood value, driven by:


1) Healthier balance sheet since its proceeds are to pay Indofood debts;

2) Lower currency risk after reduction of foreign currencies debts.

Since we now included the proceeds of Minzhong to our SOP valuation, we raised our TP to IDR10,300 (from IDR9,700, 23% upside), implying 19x/16x FY17/18F P/Es. Maintain BUY.

¨ Positive update on Minzhong divestment. Marvellous offers to buy 82.9% China Minzhong (MINZ SP) which is owned by Indofood at price SGD1.2/share. The stocks which will be bought is higher than previous MoU which was 52.9%. Indofood to receive SGD652m proceeds via:

i. SGD416m cash payment for 52.9% stakes in Minzhong;

ii. SGD236m exchangeable bonds for 30% stakes in Minzhong.

Note that Indofood had received SGD40m as advance payment in Dec-15.

In our calculation, Indofood likely to book SGD65m gain (around 15% of Indofood FY16F earning) from this transaction since average cost to acquire Minzhong is around SGD1.08/share.

¨ Stronger cash position with lower currencies risks. After the divestment, we see that Indofood balance sheet should be healthier and financing cost to come lower as the divestment proceeds are to lower Indofood debts which was used to finance Minzhong acquisition. Minzhong has high liabilities denominated in foreign currencies amounting to IDR4trn or the equivalent of 14% of Indofood’s total debts. At end Jun-16, Indofood total debts were IDR29trn with net-debts to equity ratio (NDER) of 0.36x. Around 50% of Indofood debts denominated in foreign currencies.

¨ Trading at huge discount. Based on P/E valuation, Indofood is trading at 36% discount to its subsidiary Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ, BUY, TP IDR10,200). In term of P/Es, Indofood was trading at premium or same with Indofood CBP. However, since end 2013, Indofood was trading at discount, partly driven by its investment in Minzhong. We see Minzhong divestment should triger re-rating on Indofood valuation.

¨ Reiterated BUY with higher TP. We see the Minzhong divestment should create positive sentiment on Indofood share price. Our previous TP excluded Minzhong value for conservative reason, due to its uncertainty. Since we now included proceeds of Minzhong to our SOP valuation, we raised our TP to IDR10,300 (from IDR9,700, 22% upside), implying 19x/16x FY17/18F P/Es. We assumed a 15% holding company discount in deriving our TP. We maintain BUY. Main risks in our call is cancelation on Minzhong divestment since it is subject to minority shareholders approval on Dec-16 EGM. (Andrey Wijaya)

$INDF HK:0142

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P H
Sep 07,2016 10:38:31

Indofood Sukses Makmur: New structure in the China Minzhong divestment (INDF; Rp8,375; Under Review)

- Yesterday, Indofood Sukes Makmur ($INDF) signed an Implementation Agreement with China Minzhong Holdings (CMZ BVI) and Marvellous Glory Holdings (Marvellous BVI) related to the changes and the implementation of the planned shares buyback of China Minzhong Food Corporation (CMZ) shares from INDF. About 92.99% stakes of Marvellous BVI is indirectly owned by Anthoni Salim, the CEO of INDF.

- New agreement. INDF, CMZ BVI and Marvellous BVI agreed to change the structure from planned acquisition into voluntary conditional offer, where Marvellous BVI intends to make a voluntary conditional offer to acquire all the issued and paid-up ordinary shares of CMZ, which includes INDF’s entire 543m shares ownership, at a price of SGD1.20/share (similar offer price as stipulated on the previous MoU). That said, Marvellous BVI intends to privatize and de-list CMZ.

- New transaction structures and terms. Several terms were disclosed, but we will discuss the relevant ones here. First, Marvellous BVI requires that it owns more than 50% stakes in CMZ at the closing of the offer (31 December 2016 is the deadline). We think this should be met as INDF itself owns 82.88% stakes. Second, the offer can only be accepted in either of these two options: a) full-cash settlement for SGD1.20 per share; or b) combined 64% in cash and 36% in Exchangeable Bond that can be exchangeable into CMZ shares at a price of SGD1.20/share.

- What will INDF do? INDF chose the second settlement option, where it will receive SGD416m cash and Exchangeable Bonds worth SGD235m, which will be converted into 29.94% stakes in CMZ shares. The first SGD40m payment made by CMZ BVI previously on 30 December 2015 would be treated as part of the cash settlement. INDF decided to take the second option as the management still believes in the mid-to-long-term outlook of CMZ and the potential synergy with INDF; that said it prefers to retain 29.94% stakes in CMZ.

- What do we think? The partial divestment could still reduce investors’ uncertainties and improve INDF’s risk profile, which should reduce INDF’s valuation discount to its listed subsidiaries. The SGD416m cash proceeds from the divestment could also be used to repay the approximately SGD400m debt that INDF took to acquire China Minzhong back in 2013. Full-repayment could reduce net gearing from 61% (using June 2016 position) to 47%. Despite the change in the divestment terms, both will still lead to the same outcome where INDF would retain 29.94% stakes in CMZ. In the longer-term, however, there could still be risks if INDF decided to increase its stakes in CMZ, which has a more volatile earnings and lower ROIC relative to INDF

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P H
Sep 07,2016 10:13:20

First read: Indofood Sukses’ Minzhong divestment close to deal
Marvelous Glory (MG) offers to buy 82.9% stakes in China Minzhong (MINZ SP) which is owned by Indofood Sukses (Indofood, $INDF) priced at SGD1.2/share. The stakes which will be bought is higher than previous MoU which was 52.9%.
 
Indofood will receive SGD652m proceeds via:
1) SGD416m cash payment
2) SGD236m exchangeable bonds
The proceeds are to lower Indofood debts which were used to finance Minzhong acquisition.
Note that Indofood had received SGD40 for advance payment in October 2015.
 
In our calculation, Indofood will book SGD65m gain (around 30% of Indofood FY16F earning) from this transaction since average cost to acquire Minzhong is around SGD1.08/share.
 
We see that this transaction is catalyst for Indofood share price which should unlock Indofood value. Maintain BUY on Indofood with SOP base TP of IDR9,700 implies to 18x/15x FY17/18F P/Es.Note that based on our SOP valuation, Indofood’s fair value is IDR12,000 but we have conservatively excluded the value of China Minzhong and assumed a 15% holding company discount in deriving our TP. (Andrey Wijaya)

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P H
Aug 29,2016 22:08:56
Indonesia Equities: Pricing In Near Term Positives

Key Points

- +9% gains in MSCI Indonesia since our country upgrade in July - Since our upgrade of Indonesian equities to overweight two months ago in the MIG publication after clarity on its tax amnesty programme emerged, sentiment has further improved following the appointment of well respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. The Indonesian equity market has seen strong equity inflows in 3Q16 lifting the index up ~9% (local currency terms, +8.2% in USD), which has outpaced world equities’ gains (+5.2%) for the same period and supported our call.

- Year to date’s gains of +18.6% has also more than recouped 2015’s losses of -12%, which has supported the turnaround highlighted in our January 2016’s South East Asia Equity Strategy report. The equity market rally year to date has been supported by a benign environment of lower interest rates, stable IDR currency vs the USD, under-owned positions in global portfolios and improving confidence in Indonesia’s recovery story. Estimated equity inflows into Indonesia so far for 3Q has exceeded the total inflows for 1H16, driving the market to new highs. Since mid May this year, it is estimated that net equity inflows reached $1.7bln, vs $1.6bln net outflows over the whole of 2015 (source: JPM estimates).


- Near term positives post amnesty and cabinet reshuffle look priced in, valuations are now close to 10 year high – At 16x PER, Indonesian equities is now trading close to +2 standard deviations to its 10 year historical average multiple and at its highest valuation level since 2007, which we believe has priced in much of the near term positives. Although near term liquidity is likely to remain supportive given benign expectations on interest rates, we caution that valuations have caught up and believe it is prudent to start taking some money off the table. On domestic updates, while the recently released 2017 budget is credible, it is unlikely to lead to further corporate earnings upgrades given a moderate government spending target of 6% (planned fiscal deficit for 2017 is 2.4% of GDP, flat/lower than 2016E). Towards the end of September and December which marks the first and second phases of the tax amnesty programme’s staggered tax rates for declared wealth, investor sentiment may also be influenced by expectations over the tax collections.


- Muted start to the 9-month tax amnesty programme, although still early days - As of 23rd August 2016, the asset declaration in the Tax Amnesty Program has reached Rp51.7tn, consisting of 85% onshore/15% offshore assets (12% overseas assets declared, 3% overseas net assets repatriated), while asset repatriation has reached Rp1.6 tn. Momentum of onshore assets declared in first half of August has picked up, with the tax office reporting about Rp11.5tn worth of onshore assets declared (>4x July’s). About three-quarters of the assets declared were from private individuals, and the balance private entities, which we view as supportive of property sector’s recovery given interest rates are expected to remain low while the Ministry of Finance has allowed repatriated funds to be invested in real assets (such as property and gold).


- Looking ahead, earnings upgrades need to pick up momentum for the rally to have more legs - Earnings wise, the recent 2Q results season was mixed with single digit corporate top line growth from a year ago. Concerns on banks remain dragged by asset quality issues while commodity related earnings have been moderate. Following the latest 2Q earnings season (where consensus earnings were trimmed -2% lower for FY16E and FY17E), FY16E and FY17E earnings are now forecast to grow +7% and +14% respectively (higher than Asia ex Japan equities’ 2.2% FY16E and 11% for FY17E respectively) which we believe is priced in current valuations.

Time to lock in some profits – Switch out of names which have rallied and offer no upside to target prices
- Sectors we are cautious on are: Commodity related plays which have rallied and priced in recovery expectations (coal – Bukit Asam, ITMG, palm oil – Astra Agro, London Sumatra), Banks (loans growth will be moderate while we expect asset quality concerns to remain a near term overhang) and Utilities (in particular, Perusahaan Gas – where we think profitability will remain pressured by regulatory efforts to lower gas prices).

Preferred Picks/Switch Ideas

- Preferred Sectors we would accumulate new positions are: Property (Bumi Serpong – Western Jakarta play, large landbank catering to middle income buyers), Telecommunications (Telekomunikasi Indonesia – improving smartphone penetration and data usage supported by a young population), Consumer (Indofood and Media Nusantara, which benefit from an improving domestic economy in 2H16) and Infrastructure (Jasa Marga – No. 1 toll road operator, long term beneficiary of infrastructure development in Indonesia).


- Risks to the current rally include weaker than expected global economy, faster than expected Federal Reserve interest rate hikes which may result in global liquidity volatility and disappointments in the domestic recovery and infrastructure spending pace (continues to be a focus in the 2017 budget, with 9% yoy expected growth).


$PTBA $KKGI $HRUM $ITMG $AALI $LSIP $SGRO $SMAR $PGAS $BBCA $BBRI $BMRI $BBNI $BSDE $ASRI $LPCK $LPKR $CTRA $TLKM $INDF $ICBP $AISA $MNCN $JSMR

Bull
P H
Aug 25,2016 11:23:07
Better Outlook For Indofood CBP And Bogasari

We expect a brighter outlook for Indofood driven by:
1. Faster growth at the CBP division on higher consumer spending;
2. Stronger flour earnings, benefiting from higher sales volume and lower
input costs;
3. Recovery of agri earnings on stronger sales volumes.
We lift our earnings estimates and SOP-based TP to IDR9,700 (from
IDR8,600, 22% upside), implying 18x/15x FY17F-18F P/Es. Maintain BUY.


Accelerating consumer branded products (CBP) earnings. In 2H16, we
expect subsidiary Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur’s (Indofood CBP) (ICBP IJ,
BUY, TP: IDR10,200) earnings to be stronger, driven by:
i. Consumer spending growth – better noodles and dairy product sales;
ii. Lower input costs (especially flour) lifting earnings at its noodles unit;
iii. Lower operating losses at its beverage segment.
Indofood Sukses Makmur’s (Indofood) said that consumer spending has been
improving since the middle of 2Q16, as indicated by higher sales volumes and
stronger demand for premium products, eg Indomie Real Meat and Indomilk.

Better PT Bogasari Flour Mills’ (Bogasari) outlook. In August, Bogasari
reduced ASP by 3%, which we view as in line with Indofood’s strategy to
increase market share. We have factored this lower flour ASP in our forecast.
Despite the cut, we expect Bogasari’s EBIT margins to be manageable, thanks
to lower wheat prices – a raw material for flour – as well as a strengthened and
stabilised IDR vs USD. Notably, flour ASPs came down by 1% YoY 1H16, but
Indofood’s EBIT margin continued to expand to 8.9% in 1H16 (1H15: 7.9%). So
far this year, Bogasari’s sales volumes have increased YoY, after posting flat
growth in 2012-2015.

Agribusiness earnings likely to recover. While Indofood Agri Resources
(Indofood Agri) (IFAR SP, NR) booked weak 1H16 earnings on dismal CPO
production on the back of El Nino, we expect CPO production to recover from
2H16. This should lead to lower unit production costs and improved profitability,
in our view. Taking a lesson from its El Nino experience in 2009, Indofood Agri’s
lower CPO production level in 2010 was followed by strong production growth in
2011.

Lifting earnings estimates and TP. 2Q16 earnings came in ahead of our
expectations. Given stronger projected earnings at Indofood CBP and Bogasari,
we lift our FY17-18 earnings by 7%/9% respectively and increase our SOPbased
TP to IDR9,700. Our TP implies P/Es of 18x/15x for FY17-18F. Based on
our SOP valuation, Indofood’s fair value is IDR12,000 but we have
conservatively excluded the value of China Minzhong Food Corp (Minzhong)
(MINZ SP, NR) and assumed a 15% holding company discount in deriving our
TP. Maintain BUY. Near-term catalysts include the completion of Indofood’s
proposed divestment of its stake in Minzhong. Risks to our call include lower
CPO production and sales volume, and weakened consumer spending.

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P H
Jul 27,2016 08:50:24
EARNINGS CALENDAR (Half Year 2016 - Estimated)

JULY 2016

Jul 25, 2016 :
$BBTN (Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 26, 2016
$BDMN (Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT)
$BMRI (Persero) Tbk PT Earnings Release - 4:00PM GMT+7

Jul 27, 2016
$AALI (Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT)
$HMSP (Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT)
$LPPF (Matahari Department Store Tbk PT)
$MPPA (Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT)
$PTBA (Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 28, 2016
$ASII (Astra International Tbk PT)
$BEST (Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk PT)
$BJBR (PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk)
$DOID (Bloomberg)
$NCO (Vale Indonesia Tbk PT)
$JPFA (Bloomberg)
$PSAB (Bloomberg)
$SSMS (Bloomberg)
$SMGR (Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$UNTR (United Tractors Tbk PT)
$UNVR (Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT)

Jul 29, 2016
$ASRI (Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT)
$ADHI (Bloomberg)
$BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk PT)
$BNGA (Bloomberg)
$BNLI (Bloomberg)
$BNII (Bloomberg)
$BKSL (Bloomberg)
$BHIT (Bloomberg)
$BISI (Bloomberg)
$CPIN (Bloomberg)
$CTRA (Ciputra Development Tbk PT)
$CTRP (Bloomberg)
$ELSA (Bloomberg)
$GIAA (Bloomberg)
$GJTL (Bloomberg)
$GGRM (Gudang Garam Tbk PT)
$NKP (Bloomberg)
$INTP (Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT)
$INDF (Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$ICBP (Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$INDY (Bloomberg)
$KARW (Bloomberg)
$KAEF (Bloomberg)
$KIJA (Bloomberg)
$KLBF (Kalbe Farma Tbk PT)
$KRAS (Bloomberg)
$LPKR (Lippo Karawaci Tbk PT)
$LSIP (Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk PT)
$MAPI (Bloomberg)
$PWON (Bloomberg)
$PNBN, $PNLF, $PNIN (Bloomberg)
$PTPP (Bloomberg)
$RALS (Bloomberg)
$SMRA (Bloomberg)
$TBLA (Bloomberg)
$TLKM (Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$TOTL (Bloomberg)
$WSKT (Bloomberg)

AUGUST 2016
Aug 1, 2016
$HRUM (Harum Energy Tbk PT)
$SSIA (Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT)

Aug 10, 2016
$ITMG (Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk PT)

Aug 12, 2016
$EXCL (XL Axiata Tbk PT)

Aug 29, 2016
$ADRO (Adaro Energy Tbk PT)
$ANTM (Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk PT)
$BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$ISAT (Indosat Tbk PT)
$PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

SEPTEMBER

Sep 13, 2016
$SMCB (Holcim Indonesia)

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P H
Jun 04,2016 18:32:38
Indofood CBP (ICBP) - Outlook Still Promising Despite Weak 4Q15
 
We maintain a BUY call and raise our TP to IDR16,800 (from IDR16,300, 11% upside), as we change our valuation to DCF from P/E multiple. We see a promising earnings outlook for Indofood, on the back of lower flour costs, which should boost its noodles segment’s earnings. Flour prices are estimated to decline further, after falling by 2-3% YTD.

¨ Likely to benefit from lower input cost. We see that Indofood CBP’s (Indofood) noodles segment – which accounted for c.90% of consolidated earnings – should benefit from lower flour costs, which is its main input cost. YTD March, flour prices have declined 2-3% thanks to lower commodity wheat prices and a stabilised IDR. Going forward, we believe flour prices should decline further on the back of a downtrend in wheat prices and the entry of new players, who commonly set their prices lower than those of existing players. This could lead to price competition and ultimately benefit flour consumers such as Indofood, which produces noodles.

¨ Maintain BUY with a higher TP. We raise our TP to IDR16,800 (from IDR16,300), as we change our valuation method to DCF from P/E multiple. Our revised TP is based on 9.7% WACC and 2% TG, implying 26x/24x FY16F-17F P/Es. The key risk to our call is higher flour prices.

¨ 4Q15 earnings: below expectations
 
¨ 4Q15 earnings miss our and consensus estimates, declining to IDR706bn (-21% QoQ). Sales were flat, driven by lower noodles segment earnings, which were hit by higher flour costs. The noodles segment’s EBIT margin narrowed to 12.4% in 4Q15 (vs 17.4% in 3Q15), despite a higher ASP. Based on our checks with Indofood Sukses Makmur (Indofood Sukses) (INDF IJ, BUY, TP: IDR7,150), flour ASP increased 3% QoQ during the period.

$ICBP $INDF

Bull
P H
Jun 04,2016 18:31:39
Indofood Sukses’ FY15 core-earnings delined 8% YoY, in line

¨ Indofood Sukses’ ($INDF) FY15 core-earning came lower at IDR3.6trn (-8% YoY), in line with our expectation, achieved at 96% of our and consensus full-year estimates.

¨ Lower FY15 earnings were driven by higher financing costs which impacted by weakened IDR currency. Around 41% of Indofood Sukses’ debts denominated in foreign currencies.

¨ QoQ basis, 4Q15 core-earnings jumped to IDR856bn (+37% QoQ) on the back of lower financing costs which benefited from strengthened IDR currency in the last quarter of the year.

¨ In addition, flour’s EBIT increased 188% QoQ on the back of higher sales volume (+15% QoQ), as well as higher ASP (+2.8% QoQ).

¨ Agribusiness’ EBIT also recovered, increasing 22% QoQ thanks to higher CPO price.

Bull
P H
May 16,2016 23:03:36
Indofood
1Q growth was strong (ICBP EBIT 32% y/y growth), sustainability is questionable but at least will be better than last year;
Wage increase (10-12%) tops inflation (5%); Jan to Mar saw an uptrend, No numbers released for April.
Sales contribution:66% noodles, 19% dairy, 6% snacks, 2% food seasonings, and rest are nutrition & special foods and beverages.
Noodles:
-         Sustainable margin 13-15% even - in the long run
-         Indofood has strong penetration. Growth probably 1-3% in the next 5 years. Price will mirror inflation
-         Top line will see high single digits growth
-         Two players market: INDF (75%) and Wings (25%)
-         95% domestic sales
-         Competition: Not worried with Mie mewah as users are very loyal to instant noodle brands
Dairy (stellar 32% y/y vol growth in 1Q, with margin expanding by 10% to 18.5%):
-         Expanded in weaker areas esp for milk and condensed milk
-         Targeted  marketing approach last year
-         Margin strength supported by drop in global milk prices
-         But milk price is very volatile
-         Sustainable margin 7-9%
Snacks:
-         Last year saw customers down trading to cheaper products
-         Trend reversing back this year
Beverages:   
-         Guided for 30% growth this year, but only flat in 1Q
-         Will revise this down, and increase on dairy
Seasonings: Margin squeezed on higher packaging cost and higher ingredients
Agri: Guiding for flat production this year at max, from -5% y/y earlier. Price expectations? Price taker and they don't hedge
Bogasari: Flour is growing 9% in 1Q; 70% of sales are going into ICBP, rest into industrial players; Inline with industry growth
Downside risks:
-         Mixed signals
-         They can probably achieve guidance of low double digits growth
INDF breakdown:
-         Sales : 52% CBP; 24% Bogasari; 16% Agri; 8% Distribution
-         EBIT: 63% CBP; 24% Bogasari; 11% Agri; 1.6% Dist
-         Marketing expenses as % of sales have been increasing: ICBP is 4.2% of net sales, budget is 5%; Lower than peers

$INDF $ICBP $SIMP $LSIP

Bull
P H
May 11,2016 18:35:57
Katalis Positif Indofood CBP
Investor Daily memberitakan PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP) membukukan kinerja keuangan kuartal I-2016 yang masih bagus dan sejalan dengan estimasi. Perseroan mencatatkan penjualan senilai Rp 8,9 triliun atau tumbuh 12% dibandingkan periode sama tahun lalu. Laba bersih tercatat Rp 944,8 miliar atau tumbuh 18,6%.

Analis KDB Daewoo Securities Indonesia Dang Maulida menilai, pertumbuhan kinerja Indofood CBP tersebut secara keseluruhan didukung oleh pemerintah yang telah menelurkan paket-paket kebijakan ekonomi dan penurunan suku bunga acuan (BI rate). “Pemerintah menurunkan harga BBM yang mendorong daya beli konsumen, sehingga menguntungkan Indofood CBP," jelas Dang dalam risetnya, kemarin.

Adapun dari penjualan kuartal I-2016, mi instan, susu, dan makanan ringan menjadi kontributor terbesar. Menurut Dang, produk mi instan yang berkontribusi 66% dan tumbuh 8,3% yoy didukung oleh peningkatan penjualan mi cup dan kenaikan harga pada awal tahun sebesar 5%.

Sementara itu, untuk produk dairy yang berkontribusi 19% mencatatkan pertumbuhan kuat yakni 30,8% yoy. Menurut manajemen Indofood CBP, sebut Dang, upaya menggenjot penjualan dengan memperkuat distribusi dan pemasaran sejak tahun lalu telah menunjukkan hasil.

Dang menambahkan, perseroan memiliki potensi baik ke depannya, karena memiliki inovasi yang progresif dan posisi yang dominan di sektornya, serta posisi neraca keuangan yang kuat. Ia merekomendasikan beli saham ICBP dengan target harga Rp 18.400 per saham. Pada perdagangan Senin (9/5), ICBP ditutup pada harga Rp 15.400 atau menguat 0,33%.

$ICBP $INDF

Bull
P H
May 03,2016 08:56:12
Indofood Sukses - Support from margin expansion

INDF's 1Q16 results were above estimates (29% FY16F) on better-than-expected margin. We subsequently raised our FY16-17F earnings estimates by 10-11% and upgraded our TP to IDR8,500 from IDR8,000. Our new TP implies 20% discount to our SOTP valuation, similar to previous TP, or 18x PER FY17F. Maintain BUY as we expect INDF to benefit from its exposure to the CBP business and El Nino’s positive impact on its agribusiness.

$INDF $ICBP $LSIP $SIMP
Bull
P H
Apr 29,2016 09:42:41
Indonesia: 12th stimulus policy – Further Streamlining in Various Permits
 
The government released the details of its 12th stimulus policy, which mostly aim to further simplify various permits in doing business. While the latest policy appears to be an accentuation of previous stimulus to streamlines business process, in our view the government continues to show its focus to attract more investment into domestic economy, especially given sizeable contribution from Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) to overall Indonesia’s economy.
 
Efforts to lure more investment
President Joko Widodo through several cabinet meetings has emphasized his means to increase the rating of the country’s Ease of Doing Business (EODB) to the 40th rank. The World Bank surveyed that Indonesia stood at rank 109th from a total of 189 surveyed countries. Other ASEAN countries such as Singapore and Malaysia stand at the 1st and 18th rank of the list. Currently, there are 10 indicators that measure the EODB rank for a country. The indicators are business starting process, construction permit dealing process, tax payment, credit accessibility, contract enforcement, electricity supply, across border trading, insolvency settlement, and minority investors protection. To comply with the indicators, the Indonesian Economic Ministry along with the Investment Coordinating Board formed deregulations through the 12th Economic Stimulus.
 
Key points of the 12th stimulus policy
The 12th stimulus introduced a new deregulation scheme that will cut 94 procedures into only 49 procedures and 9 permits to only 6 permits. Furthermore, the stimulus package is followed by the release of 16 new regulations.
¨ For the business starting process, the initial regulation requires investors to go through 13 procedures that will take 47 days and IDR6.8m-7.8m to obtain Business Permit (SIUP), Company Registration (TDP), Deed of Establishment, location permit, and nuisance permit. With the deregulation, investors will only need 7-10 days procedure with IDR2.7m fee. Moreover, the government will only require 3 permits for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME), which are SIUP, TDP, and deed of establishment.
¨ The government also released a new regulation through regulation no 7/2016 on changes in authorised capital for limited company. With the new regulation, MSME’s authorised capital will be determined by mutual agreement of the founders as outlined in the deed of establishment. However, the regulation will keep enacting the minimum requirement of IDR50m for limited company.
¨ As for building construction permit, the government will cut the process into 14 procedures within 52 days from initial of 17 procedures and 210 days of processing time. Moreover, the building construction permit fee will be reduced to IDR70m from the initial fee of IDR86m.
¨ Tax payment process will be cut into 10x payments with online system from an initial of 54x payments. While property registration will be cut into 3 procedures in 7 days with a fee of 8.3% from the value of property. The government previously imposed 5 procedures with 25 processing days and 10.8% fee for the property registration.
¨ The government also decreases the simple lawsuit settlement process to only 8 procedures in 28 days. Any disagreement on the verdict will be able to appeal with additional 3 procedures and maximum of 10 days of settlement.
 
Follow-up measure to reduce overall execution risk

Before the release of the 12th stimulus package, the government has released a total of 195 regulations from September 2015- April 2016. The government stated that as of 18 April, it has successfully completed 169 regulations or 87% from the total regulation released. There are 16 (8%) regulations that are still in the discussion process, while the remaining 10 regulations that will be taken out from the Economic Stimulus Package. The government stated that each packages received positive responses from investors and citizens. However, the government will increase its socialisation and evaluate the implementation through dissemination and business clinics. The business clinics aimed to further discuss the stimulus packages with stakeholders to ensure the on the ground efficiency of the packages. Moreover, the business clinic will also serve as the communication facility between investors and government to resolve any problems, including the export increment issues. The clinics and dissemination will be implemented in 3 regions, such as Palembang, Balikpapan, and Lombok.
 
The near term catalyst is the tax amnesty approval
We continue to believe that tax amnesty approval could serve as one of major catalyst in the near term. Post the Parliament’s recess session, the long-awaited tax amnesty bill is finally being discussed under the Commission XI, which has been holding hearing sessions with experts, business leaders and other stakeholders. Given its importance on the overall budget and the progress of infrastructure development, the Government is mulling over the fact that the bill could take effect in June. We believe the initial approval of the tax amnesty could be an important catalyst for the near term, as well as a major step taken in the right direction to finally foster the compliance of taxpayers – which could help solidify the Government’s overall budget composition going forward. As such, we expect further foreign fund inflows to support the market post the approval of the tax amnesty although we acknowledge that execution risks still remain at this juncture. Our top pick in the market are $BBCA, $BBTN, $ICBP, $INDF, $ADHI, $LPPF, $MIKA, $TLKM, $BSDE and $LSIP.


Bull
P H
Apr 18,2016 08:54:59
Indofood Sukses Makmur(INDF) - EBIT Lifted By Consumer And Agri Units
 
We maintain BUY on Indofood with a higher IDR8,600 TP (from IDR7,150, 20% upside) as we changed our valuation base to SOP (from P/E). Higher consumer branded products (CBP) and agribusiness earnings should boost its EBIT, thanks to lower input costs and a higher CPO price. In addition, an improved distribution network should enable Indofood to identify the sales trend for each region, which could boost its sales. Key risks to our call include a significant decline in the price of CPO.

¨ Better CBP EBIT. Indofood Sukses Makmur’s (Indofood) CBP division, which produces noodles, should benefit from lower flour costs – which makes up the main cost of its inputs. In 1Q16, flour prices declined 2-3% from lower commodity wheat prices and a stabilised IDR. We think flour prices should decline further on the back of a downtrend in wheat prices and the entry of new players, which commonly set their prices lower than those of existing players. This could lead to price competition and ultimately benefit CBP players.

¨ Accelerating EBIT for agri unit. Its agribusiness should directly benefit from a higher CPO price due to lower supply. We estimate that the disruption in CPO supply after last year’s El Nino could boost the average CPO price by 14% YoY to IDR8,000/kg in 2016F (2015: IDR7,000/kg). Since most agribusiness’ costs are fixed, a higher CPO price should increase EBIT significantly.

¨ Strengthened distribution network. Its distribution arm aggresively expanded its network by establishing new branches, adding stock points and increasing the number of registered retail outlets. It also strengthened its logistics capabilities, by adding sales team workforces. Indofood aims to grow its penetration – especially in rural areas – by expanding its outlets.

¨ Likely to maintain dominant position in flour. Despite new flour producers flooding the Indonesian market for the past three years, Bogasari – the largest local flour producer – has maintained its market share of ~60%. This year, Wings and Mayora group are expanding and building new flour mills. This should not hurt Bogasari’s position, in our view, thanks to its strong brand names. To deal with rising competition, Bogasari will focus on maintaining its current customers and helping them to grow faster than the industry average.

¨ Maintain BUY. We raise our TP – which is now based on SOP (from P/E previously) – to IDR8,600 (from IDR7,150). Our TP implies 19x/17x FY16F/FY17F P/Es. Indofood’s FY15 earnings fell to IDR3trn (-25% YoY), driven by higher unrealised forex losses on foreign currency-denominated debts which caused financing costs to surge. However, its FY15 core earnings were still in line with expectations. Hence, we maintain our FY16F/FY17F core earnings at IDR3.6trn/4.1trn.

$INDF $ICBP $LSIP $SIMP
Bull
P H
Apr 07,2016 08:47:29
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur: Noodle premiumisation?

With ~75% market share in the world’s second largest instant noodle market, is it a surprise that ICBP trade at 25/22x 16/17 earnings?
 
This morning, Merlissa highlights that ICBP’s strong noodle volume was driven by improving demand conditions.  Better cup noodle performance also indicated that consumers have started to trade up.
 
Rationale is quite straight forward.  During 2015 consumers traded down along with the slower economy, and on recovery they are trading back up.  Merlissa points to Philippine’s consumer company, Universal Robina Corp, as proof (which targets lower end segment demographics).
 
For Indonesians, ‘cup’ noodle is a premium product to ‘bagged’ instant noodle.  And as a portion of total instant noodle consumed, cup noodle is still much smaller given affordability and tast factors of Indonesian consumers.
 
Since the beginning of 2016 ICBP has been pretty aggressive in launching new products including soup-based fried noodles.  Merlissa estimates noodle volume to growth by c3% in 2016CL from a low base of 1% volume growth in 2016.  Noodle margins should also be strong given lower soft commodity prices.
 
Given its YTD strong performance Merlissa has an outperform rating on ICBP but highlights that upside risk in earnings can come from mark to market on a stronger rupiah than assumed by most companies (14,000 – 15,000).  
 
If the rupiah stays around current level or up to 13,500, ICBP could see 12-15% of earnings upside to our present estimates.  Please see Merlissa’s report for more on Indo’s instant noodle king, ICBP. 

$ICBP $INDF
Bull
P H
Mar 28,2016 09:38:53
Kalau pegang INDF jual dulu.. kalau belum tunggu entry point lagi...

Bear
P H
Mar 04,2016 10:09:52
This Fund Manager Is Turning to TV to Profit From Indonesia Boom


Samsung Asset Management Ltd.’s Alan Richardson has a new take on how to profit from Indonesia’s resurgent economy: buy the TV stocks that will benefit from increased ad spending by high-flying consumer companies, rather than those shares themselves.

With consumer stocks in Southeast Asia’s most populousnation trading at the highest valuation in over a decade compared with emerging-market peers, media stocks offer an attractive alternative, according to Richardson, a Hong Kong-based money manager at Samsung Asset.

The South Korean investment firm that oversees $112 billion of assets globally started accumulating shares in PT Media Nusantara Citra ($MNCN) and PT Surya Citra Media ($SCMA) last month.


“Media companies are the way to go rather than buying consumer stocks that have already rallied significantly," said Richardson, who correctly predicted further declines in Indonesia shares in August before they bottomed the following month.

“Because economic conditions are stabilizing in Indonesia and inflation is coming down and the rupiah is starting to stabilize, consumer companies are increasing their advertising budgets.

”Investor confidence is returning to Indonesia after atumultuous 2015, with the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index climbing 18 percent from its September 2015 low.

Indonesian consumer stocks including PT Indofood Sukses Makmur ($INDF), a maker of instant noodles and baby food, and PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia ($CPIN), a distributor of animal feeds, have led gains in Southeast Asia.

While Indonesia’s consumer stocks are directly benefiting from the country’s economic recovery, Richardson said it might be too late to jump into the sector now. The MSCI Indonesia Consumer Staple Index trades at 38 times reported earnings, nearthe most expensive relative to their emerging-market peers since2001, after gaining 24 percent this year.

Shares of Media Nusantara Citra ($MNCN) and Surya Citra ($SCMA) could rally as much as 40 percent in the next 12 months as earnings improve, said Richardson, whose Southeast Asian equity fund has beaten 97percent of its peers over the past five years with an 11 percent return.

The shares trade at 26 and 28 times reported earnings, respectively. Net profits will rise at least 13 percent this year and 16 percent in 2017, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

“They’re the most obvious proxies to Indonesia’s improving economy and growing consumer spending,” said Richardson. “They’re starting a new earnings up cycle. ”Foreign investors have poured net inflows of $265 million into Indonesian equities this year, making the nation’s stockmarket Asia’s best performer. The economy, Southeast Asia’s largest, expanded at a faster-than-expected 5 percent in the three months to December, picking up from its slowest pace in almost six years in the second quarter.

“With currencies stabilizing, I can focus more on stockselection,” said Richardson. “I don’t need to worry about macroeconomic issues affecting stock valuations.”






Bull
P H
Feb 29,2016 14:52:50
Astra Agro Lestari ($AALI): FY15 results disappoint on weak sales and FX losses
- Significant dilution risk from proposed IDR4t rights issue
- Downgrade to SELL; buy $INDF instead


Investment Summary
1) FY15 earnings miss on weak sales and FX losses – Net profit slumped 75% YoY to IDR619b (43% of our FY15E forecast), as revenue fell 20% to IDR13.1t (81% of FY15E), mainly due to weaker selling prices and sales volume for palm products. Earnings were also hurt by IDR580b in forex losses on its USD bank loans.

2) CPO production flat on weak FFB output and yield – As expected, FY15 CPO production was flat (-0.4% YoY) as weak growth in fresh-fruit bunch output (+0.7%) was offset by declines in FFB yield and CPO extraction rate. Palm kernel production was also weak (-0.7% YoY, 95% of our FY15 forecast). CPO average selling price for FY15 was 16% lower YoY in IDR terms, while palm kernel ASP fell 14%.

3) Rights issue poses material dilution risk – AALI has proposed a rights issue to raise up to IDR4t to repay some of its ~US$500m in USD debt and reduce interest costs. We estimate potential EPS dilution of up to 20% from the rights issue.

4) Risk/reward unattractive, downgrade to SELL – The likely dilution from the proposed rights issue has further hurt the stock’s attractiveness, despite the improving CPO price outlook for this year. With production remaining weak, we think the risk/reward profile of the stock is poor at the current price. Downgrade to SELL, with a lower IDR12,400 fair value (13x FY16E PE) to factor in the dilution risk and disappointing FY15 result. Buy Indofood Sukses Makmur ($INDF) instead for cheaper, less volatile exposure to Indonesia consumer staples and potential CPO price upside.

Key Investment Risks
- Upside risks: Significant CPO price gains, better than expected production volume. Downside risks: Sharp drop in CPO prices; significant increase in the value of the rupiah; crop damage due to bad weather, disease or other natural disasters; higher labour and fertiliser costs; weaker-than-expected domestic demand for palm oil; increases in export tax or export bans on palm oil and its derivatives; government restrictions on landbank expansion.
Bear
P H
Feb 29,2016 14:52:50
Astra Agro Lestari ($AALI): FY15 results disappoint on weak sales and FX losses
- Significant dilution risk from proposed IDR4t rights issue
- Downgrade to SELL; buy $INDF instead


Investment Summary
1) FY15 earnings miss on weak sales and FX losses – Net profit slumped 75% YoY to IDR619b (43% of our FY15E forecast), as revenue fell 20% to IDR13.1t (81% of FY15E), mainly due to weaker selling prices and sales volume for palm products. Earnings were also hurt by IDR580b in forex losses on its USD bank loans.

2) CPO production flat on weak FFB output and yield – As expected, FY15 CPO production was flat (-0.4% YoY) as weak growth in fresh-fruit bunch output (+0.7%) was offset by declines in FFB yield and CPO extraction rate. Palm kernel production was also weak (-0.7% YoY, 95% of our FY15 forecast). CPO average selling price for FY15 was 16% lower YoY in IDR terms, while palm kernel ASP fell 14%.

3) Rights issue poses material dilution risk – AALI has proposed a rights issue to raise up to IDR4t to repay some of its ~US$500m in USD debt and reduce interest costs. We estimate potential EPS dilution of up to 20% from the rights issue.

4) Risk/reward unattractive, downgrade to SELL – The likely dilution from the proposed rights issue has further hurt the stock’s attractiveness, despite the improving CPO price outlook for this year. With production remaining weak, we think the risk/reward profile of the stock is poor at the current price. Downgrade to SELL, with a lower IDR12,400 fair value (13x FY16E PE) to factor in the dilution risk and disappointing FY15 result. Buy Indofood Sukses Makmur ($INDF) instead for cheaper, less volatile exposure to Indonesia consumer staples and potential CPO price upside.

Key Investment Risks
- Upside risks: Significant CPO price gains, better than expected production volume. Downside risks: Sharp drop in CPO prices; significant increase in the value of the rupiah; crop damage due to bad weather, disease or other natural disasters; higher labour and fertiliser costs; weaker-than-expected domestic demand for palm oil; increases in export tax or export bans on palm oil and its derivatives; government restrictions on landbank expansion.
Bear
P H
Feb 05,2016 10:23:44
Target 6,600 - 6,700 (Kalau tercapai semoga bisa menjadi support untuk target berikutnya)

Bull
P H
Jan 26,2016 10:41:49
INDF masih di tengah trading range

hide
Saraswati
Oct 26,2015 06:37:57
Selamat pagi kakak, saya mahasiswi yang tengah menempuh skripsi.
Mohon bantuan kakak-kakak untuk mengisi dan menyebarkan kuesioner yang meneliti tentang perilaku investor berikut ya.

http://bit.ly/1K8rDu0

Segala bantuan akan sangat saya apresiasi. Terima kasih banyak telah meluangkan waktunya sebentar. ;);););)

$BBCA $TLKM $IHSG $INDF
hide
P H
Oct 19,2015 11:49:44
Akhirnya INDF naik :) Walau ga jadi dapat barang super murah :P
Bull
P H
Sep 09,2015 11:11:24
$INDF masi tunggu di 4,500 (Strong Support)

Bear
P H
Sep 08,2015 10:44:55
$INDF tunggu di 4,500

Bear
P H
Aug 24,2015 15:07:04
INDF BOW 4500 - 5000. CL 4475 TARGET 6000

Bull
P H
Aug 03,2015 12:21:39
Short Term masih lemah
Bear
P H
Jul 31,2015 10:01:49
Still Bullish for long term Investment
Bull
P H
Jul 24,2015 00:15:30
INDF Long Term Stock Trading

$INDF
Bull
P H
Jul 14,2015 11:56:13
INDF BOW CUT LOSS di bawah 6,400.. Tambah lagi :)

Bull
P H
Jun 15,2015 11:36:07
INDF BOW CUT LOSS di bawah 6,400

hide
P H
Jun 10,2015 17:46:56
INDF sudah 2 1/2 tahun ini sideway di range 6,400 - 7,400



Bull
P H
Jun 10,2015 17:14:46
Apabila kita melakukan survey ke pasar, ke teman teman pengusaha jelas semua menyatakan bahwa bisnis sedang lesu. Bahkan tanah abang yang biasanya cukup ramai menjelang lebaran juga mengalami penurunan omset.

Seperti nya sudah tidak bisa di pungkiri lagi bahwa tahun ini cukup berat untuk dapat naik. Yang dapat kita lakukan sekarang adalah selektif buying. Beli saham dengan fundamental baik dan market cap yang besar karena biasa mereka yang akan rebound duluan.

Buy during breakout cocok saat kondisi market baik. Sekarang ini lebih cocok Buy saat murah.

Murah nya berapa? Ini adalah hal yang sangat sulit di jawab. Yang dapat kita lakukan adalah melihat support support yang sudah ada untuk di jadikan patokan. Apabila dari peak sudah turun di atas 20% - 30% (tergantung saham) lalu cari support berikutnya sebagai basis untuk membeli.

Top pick saya kali ini adalah INDF dengan cara average down / up.


hide
P H
Jun 09,2015 15:55:18
INDF BUY at Support 6,500 - 6,700. *RISK TAKER*

Bull
P H
Jun 08,2015 23:00:58
BUY ORDER INDF @ 6,700
Bull
P H
Jun 03,2015 14:54:35
INDF tunggu beli di support. Support lihat di chart di bawah

Bull
P H
May 29,2015 09:54:04
INDF indikator BUY masih belum muncul
Bull
P H
May 28,2015 14:23:18
Lebaran sudah dekat.. biasa saham consumer akan naik.. TOP PICK nya INDF :) Sebentar lagi bakal ada BUY Signal dari indikator (Seperti nya besok kalau naik lagi).
Bull
P H
May 21,2015 21:11:28
Our top picks: 5 mass consumption, 3 infrastructure related, 1 bank, and 1 industrial property. Top picks in Indonesia (in alphabetical order) 1 ADHI Adhi Karya 2 BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia 3 BEST Bekasi Fajar 4 GGRM Gudang Garam 5 INDF Indofood Sukses 6 JSMR Jasa Marga 7 KLBF Kalbe Farma 8 PTPP Pemb Perumahan 9 TLKM Telkom Indonesia 10 TELE Tiphone Mobile Indo Source: Maybank Kim Eng
Bull
P H
May 20,2015 12:10:48
Yang kemarin sudah sempat jual sesuai rekomendasi. Bisa beli lagi di support antara 6500 - 6700. Target jual masih sama di 7450
Bull
P H
May 13,2015 15:00:53
INDF BUY only when there is a BUY SIGNAL. Still waiting for the price to cross the blue line. Can happen anytime soon?? For those who have purchase at lower price, it is the best time to sell and BUY when there is a new signal.
Bull
P H
May 13,2015 14:53:50
bagi yang sudah beli INDF :) bole jual deket support 7450 atau jual sekarang. Posisi masih bullish tapi take profit dulu.
Bull
P H
May 01,2015 11:54:20
Pasang beli INDF di support 6500... range beli di 6500-6700
Bull
P H
Apr 27,2015 15:35:16
Akhir nya ga kuat juga INDF ikutan jatuh! Tunggu posisi beli lagi
hide
P H
Apr 10,2015 01:36:03
ICBP atau INDF bagus tapi dari harga sekarang prefer beli INDF
Bull
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise.
INDF
8,600.00 100.00 (1.18%)
Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk.
Last Update 16:59:09