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Nov 29,2016 00:03:12

Indo Tambangraya Megah ($ITMG) targets revenue to grow by 30% in 2017. The company’s finance director Yulius Gozali said that the company is optimistic as China coal demand will increase next year.

Nov 21,2016 22:18:13

Indo Tambang: Constrained by Declining Reserves ($ITMG; Rp14,725; Sell; TP:Rp12,250)

  • ITMG should benefit greatly from higher coal ASP, but we see high risk of coal price reversal on the Chinese government's
    effort to ease the coal price rally. We raise our FY16-18 net profit by 23-62% after imputing FY16/17/18 coal price
    assumption of USD64/70/69, but downgrade ITMG to sell with TP of Rp12,250.
  • Lack of production growth. Post ITMG 9M16 analyst meeting, ITMG cuts its FY16 production target further to 26.2mn
    tons (from 26.6mn tons) vs. ours at 27mn tons due to higher than average rainfall. Going forward, management guided a
    minimum of flat production in FY17, hence assuming ITMG's production to be flat at 27mn tons. Despite higher coal ASP,
    we think it is unlikely for ITMG to significantly increase production due to limitation on reserve.
  • Depleting coal reserves. As of Sep-16, ITMG has 205mn tons of coal reserves, translating to mine life of 8 years
    (assuming annual production of 27mn tons). However, the company has a debt-free balance sheet with cash balance of
    USD268mn as of 9M16, which we think can be used for coal mine acquisition to replenish its declining coal reserves.
    Assuming USD1/ton acquisition price, we estimate ITMG can acquire up to 268mn tons of reserves.
  • Earnings growth mainly from higher ASP. We expect ITMG to post strong earnings growth, coming from higher coal
    ASP, despite flat production. ITMG should benefit greatly due to: 1) higher exposure to spot market; 2) better average coal
    quality (5,500 – 6,000 Kcal); and 3) low-base earnings. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that every 1% increase in coal price
    will increase ITMG’s earnings by 5.6%. Moreover, we estimate ITMG's FY17 SR ratio to increase to 10.5x (from 8.7x in FY16).
  • Downgrade ITMG to sell with TP of Rp12,250. On better earnings outlook, we raise our FY16-18 net profit by 23-62%,
    after imputing FY16/17/18 coal price assumption of USD64/70/69. However, we downgrade ITMG to sell with TP of
    Rp12,250 based on 8.0x FY17 target P/E (-1SD). Our sell recommendation was solely based on risk of coal price reversal
    after China's government stepped up its efforts to ease coal price rally.
Nov 21,2016 11:47:50

Coal Mining: Take Profit

  • Indonesia's coal stocks are expected to be negatively affected by coal price reversal after China's government stepped up its efforts to cool coal price given the stronger correlation between coal price and stock price recently. Downgrade coal sector to Underweight. Downgrade all coal stocks to Sell.
  • Downgrade coal sector to Underweight, sell all coal stocks. We downgrade our recommendation on coal sector to Underweight (from Neutral) as we see risk of coal price reversal after China's government stepped up its efforts to ease steep increase in coal price. Newcastle coal price index has declined to US$105/ton from the peak of US114/ton with coal contract for January delivery concluded at US$94.5/ton FOB on globalCOAL (vs FY17/18F of US$70/US$69/ton of our forecast). We downgrade our recommendation to Sell on ADRO (Sell, Rp1,200TP), PTBA(Sell, Rp9,500TP), ITMG(Sell, Rp12,250TP), and HRUM (Sell, Rp1,600TP). ADRO, PTBA, ITMG, and HRUM are trading at FY17F PE of 12x/12x/10x/13x.
  • China has intensified efforts to cool down coal price by 1) extending the time period for the supply relaxation policy for selective big coal miners to increase production to an equivalent of 330 days' output from 276 days restriction policy, 2) urging more long-term contracts between major coal miners with major power plants, and 3) raising transaction fee for thermal coal futures for same-day trading to curb short-term speculative trading. In addition to that, one of the largest coal producers recently indicated that it will stop selling coal to buyers without annual long-term contracts to further prevent speculative activity in the coal market.
  • Correlations between coal price and stock price are the highest since 2014. While we expect stronger earnings outlook next year driven by higher coal price, we believe that stock price direction will be determined by the volatility on coal prices due to strong correlations between coal price and stock price recently. We take a look at the 3-month correlations of  coal stocks to coal price since 2014. Based on this, the current correlation levels are the highest, standing at 56% for ADRO, 50% for ITMG, 57% for PTBA, and a whopping 66% for HRUM. This makes Indonesia's coal stocks very vulnerable to coal price reversal given the steep increase in the past few months. Note that Indonesia’s coal stock has increased by an average of +284%YTD vs. the index of +11%YTD.
  • Expect stronger earnings outlook in 2017 for Indonesia coal miners, mainly driven by higher ASP. Our discussion with large coal miners indicates moderate production growth next year to maintain high coal price and avoid oversupply in the market. In terms of coal price, we believe at US$70-75/ton coal price is already a good number for coal miners as it's already >30% higher than the avg. of US$55/ton in 1H16. However, we also expect production cost will increase due to higher stripping ratio and contractors’ fee (lower discount fee). Our sensitivity analysis indicates that every 1% increase in coal price will increase ITMG's and HRUM's earnings by 4.8% and 4.0% respectively vs. ADRO's and PTBA's of 3.3% and 2.8%.
  • Key risk to our call is if coal price can sustain at >US$100/ton due to weather related issue.


Nov 21,2016 09:04:32

The Coal Industry Isn’t Coming Back


Austin, Tex. — Donald J. Trump made many important campaign promises on his way to victory. But saving coal is one promise he won’t be able to keep.

Many in Appalachia and other coal-mining regions believe that President Obama’s supposed war on coal caused a steep decline in the industry’s fortunes. But coal’s struggles to compete are caused by cheap natural gas, cheap renewables, air-quality regulations that got their start in the George W. Bush administration and weaker-than-expected demand for coal in Asia.

Nationwide, coal employment peaked in the 1920s. The more recent decline in Appalachian coal employment started in the 1980s during the administration of Ronald Reagan because of the role that automation and mechanization played in replacing miners with machines, especially in mountaintop removal mining. Job losses in Appalachia were compounded by deregulation of the railroads. Freight prices for trains dropped as a result, which meant that Western coal — which is much cleaner and cheaper than Eastern coal — could be sold to markets far away, cutting into the market share of Appalachian mines. These market forces recently drove six publicly traded coal producers into bankruptcy in the span of a year.

Mr. Trump cannot reverse these trends.

For Mr. Trump to improve coal’s fate would require enormous market intervention like direct mandates to consume coal or significant tax breaks to coal’s benefit. These are the exact types of interventions that conflict with decades of Republican orthodoxy supporting competitive markets. Another approach, which appears to be gaining popularity, is to open up more federal lands and waters to oil, gas and coal production.

Doing so would only exacerbate coal’s challenges, as it would add to the oversupply of energy, lowering the price of coal, which makes it even harder for coal companies to stay profitable. Those same policy actions would also lead to more gas production, depressing natural gas prices further, which would outcompete coal. Instead of being a virtuous cycle for coal, it looks more like a death spiral. And this is all without environmental regulations related to reducing carbon dioxide emissions, which aren’t even scheduled to kick in for several years.

Even if the president-elect tried to make these moves, surprising opponents might step in his way. Natural gas companies are the primary beneficiaries of, and now defenders of, clean air and low carbon regulations. They include Exxon Mobil, the world’s largest publicly traded international oil and gas company, which operates in a lot of countries that care about reducing carbon emissions. The company issued a public statement in support of the Paris climate agreement on Nov. 4, the day it took effect. Shutting down coal in favor of natural gas, which is cleaner and emits much less carbon, is a big business opportunity for companies like Exxon Mobil.

In the battle between coal companies and major oil and gas producers, I expect the latter will be victorious.

The rapid uptake of cheap renewables is also a contributor to coal’s demise. Mr. Trump made campaign comments suggesting the end of support for renewable energy technologies. But his recent statements call for supporting all energy forms, including renewables, suggesting he won’t target them after all.

Even if he did, what are his options? Their tax subsidies are already scheduled to expire or shrink. Plus, wind and solar farms are usually installed in rural Republican districts, which explains why they get so much Republican support in the first place. All those rural districts in America’s wind corridor might not be thrilled if their preferred candidate seeks to undermine one of their most important sources of economic growth.

The saving grace for coal production in the United States may be exports to Europe or China. But Europe’s demand for coal is waning. And Mr. Trump seems to be marching us toward a trade war with China. Doing so means the Chinese could retaliate by not buying our coal. And even if a trade war is avoided, cheap coal is readily available from nearby Australia.

What does this mean for the average American? More of the same when it comes to energy, which is a good thing. Energy prices will stay low and our air quality will keep improving. And both will help the economy grow.

Any way you slice it, coal’s struggles are real and hard to mitigate. No matter how much Mr. Trump tries to protect coal from market competition, doing so will be hard to execute and will get him crosswise with important Republican stakeholders and long-held Republican policy priorities.

Michael E. Webber is the deputy director of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas, Austin, and author of “Thirst for Power: Energy, Water and Human Survival.”


Nov 18,2016 09:59:50

Coal: Asian thermal coal industry will likely remain under pressure in 2017

Fitch Ratings stated in an outlook report that the Asian thermal coal industry will remain under pressure in 2017 due to more-than-adequate capacity and price adjustments that are likely to be downward. The strong pricing rebound since early 2016 is unlikely to be sustained as the Chinese government relaxes its workingday curtailment policies to manage prices. Also, India has been ramping up domestic supply aggressively to enhance energy security and reduce current account deficits, while domestic demand growth has been lackluster. At this stage, Fitch expects Indonesian coal producers that focus on the export market are likely to suffer the most as India, their largest buyer, experiences weak thermal power generation, curbs coal imports and increases utilization of higher-rank Australian and South African coal. (Fitch)


Nov 16,2016 09:22:30

Coal Mining - Sector Has Mixed Expectations For 2017

We visited four coal miners recently, and got updates on their outlook for 2017. On production, only Indo Tambang is aiming for flat growth while Harum Energy has the highest target (+33% YoY). Up until now, none of the miners’ customers have locked in their FY17 coal purchase prices. Meanwhile, all players expect their stripping ratios to rise next year. We reiterate our BUY on United Tractors, as we expect earnings to recover (mostly on a rise in mining contracting volume). It would also benefit from a weakening IDR and is the safest play on the recovery in coal prices.

¨ No customer has locked in FY17 purchase prices. The increase in coal prices was faster than what the coal miners’ customers had expected. As a result, no customer has locked in their FY17 coal purchase prices yet. Some have only locked in their 2017 coal purchase volume, as they think coal prices may retreat from the currently high levels.

¨ Higher stripping ratios, but with unchanged mining contracting fees. Based on our talks with the coal miners, all of them expect their stripping ratios to rise next year. However, they still hope to see mining contracting fees remaining unchanged. Up until now, most of the firms were still negotiating mining contracting volumes and fees with their contractors. The miners’ expectations for an unchanged mining contract fee in FY17 are different from United Tractors. It expects less discounts in FY17 due to the recovery in coal prices.

¨ Harum Energy expects to see the biggest production increase. Harum Energy expects its coal production to hit 4m tonnes (vs its FY16 target of 3m tonnes) next year. In 2012, its production peaked at 12m tonnes. In 2011-2016, it cut down on coal production to preserve the long-term value of its assets, as coal prices fell. Meanwhile, Indo Tambangraya Megah (Indo Tambang) expects production growth to stay flat (Figure 1).

¨ Harum Energy is the most exposed counter to the spot coal price. Among the four coal miners, Harum Energy is the most exposed to spot coal price. This is as it sells its coal using spot prices. Therefore, it should start benefiting from the increase in prices from 4Q16 onwards. By contrast, its peers should fully benefit from the current increase in prices from 2017 onwards, as most of their coal selling prices for FY16 have been locked in.

¨ Indo Tambang has the biggest exposure to the China market. China is the main driver behind the increase in imported coal demand. Indo Tambang is the most exposed coal miner to this market (25% of sales are made to Chinese customers), followed by Adaro Energy (14% of sales) (Figure 1). As at 9M16, Harum Energy and Bukit Asam have not sold coal to China. However, they said they would record sales to China from 4Q16 onwards.

¨ All coal miners are the beneficiaries of the weakening IDR. We expect the IDR to continue softening to reach an average of IDR13,700/USD in FY17 (YTD average: IDR13,286/USD). The coal miners’ revenues are mostly dominated in USD terms. Meanwhile, the contribution of USD to their costs is less than to their revenue (Figure 1), which should improve profit margins. Harum Energy and Indo Tambang are likely to benefit the most from a weakening IDR, considering that the difference between USD contributions to their revenue and total costs are the highest.

¨ Reiterate BUY on United Tractors with a IDR24,700 TP. We reiterate our BUY call on United Tractors, as its earnings are set to recover in FY17 from higher heavy equipment sales, and mining contracting and coal sales volumes. We think this has not been factored in by consensus yet. The company should also benefit from the weakening IDR in its mining contracting and coal sales businesses. Also, with consensus lifting its earnings estimate, this should also boost United Tractor’s share price performance. We consider this stock as the safest play on the recovery in coal prices. (Hariyanto Wijaya CFA, CPA)


Nov 15,2016 22:53:01

$ITMG: 3Q16 recovery on ASP & sales volume

·         ITMG 3Q16 bottom line was recorded at USD33m, up 146% QoQ and 32.9% YoY. The strong QoQ growth was primarily due to strong recoveries in both ASP (+11.6% QoQ) and sales volume (+12.9% QoQ) and lower effective income tax rate of 27.9%.

·         The strong 3Q16 brought 9M16 earnings to USD70m (-16.1% YoY), accounting for 86% of our FY16 forecast of USD81m.

·         The strong coal prices, which have started since the beginning of July, already impacted ITMG’s ASP. This is pretty much in line with our view that in terms of exposure to seaborne markets, ITMG is the highest as ~80% of sales volume is exported.

·         Sales volume was up 12.9% QoQ to 7.0m tonnes, mainly because of inventory sell down as production was down 3.1% QoQ due to bad weather.

·         Despite strong ASP and sales volume performance, one thing to note is the ex-royalty production cash cost, which was up 4.9% QoQ, even though strip ratio was only up 1.1% QoQ and flat oil prices.

·         We are reviewing our forecasts, target price and recommendation.


Nov 14,2016 12:25:55

Coal Resurgent, Renewables in Retreat After Trump Win

  • Trump has promised to rescind the Paris climate change deal
  • Oil and natural gas most likely winners with Trump election

If you want a snapshot of what the global energy map will look like under President Donald Trump, look no farther than the stock market.
Glencore Plc, the world’s top coal trader, surged more than 7 percent on Wednesday. Vestas Wind Systems A/S, the world’s biggest wind-turbine maker, plunged as much as 13 percent. The swing foretells a story of the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel making a comeback, while the fight against climate change -- and investment in wind and solar power -- languishes.

"De-carbonization, which has been the organizing principle of Obama’s energy policy, came to a screeching halt last night," said Bob McNally, president of consultant Rapidan Group in Washington and a former senior energy official at the White House under Republican President George W. Bush.

In his only major energy policy speech before the elections, Trump said that he would rescind “job-destroying” environmental regulations within 100 days of taking office and cancel the climate deal reached last year in Paris.

“A Trump administration will focus on real environmental challenges, not the phony ones we’ve been looking at,” Trump told supporters in May in North Dakota, the birth-place of the U.S. shale revolution.

If the president-elect delivers on his campaign promises, he could effectively roll back eight years of U.S. energy policy, with consequences to industry giants like Exxon Mobil Corp. and oil-rich nations including Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

“Trump has promised a dramatic shift in U.S. energy policy, from getting out of the Paris climate deal, to easing regulation on domestic oil and gas drilling, to scrapping the Clean Power Plan that affects the role of coal," said Jason Bordoff, director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University and a former White House official under President Obama.

Few Clues

To be sure, Trump has offered few clues on how he plans to implement his plans. Energy and climate policy has taken a back-seat to immigration, the economy and debate about the candidate’s fitness for office. And some of his proposals are contradictory, like his pledge to boost both natural gas and coal, two fuels that compete against each other in the power generation market.

Yet few doubt who’s likely to win and lose, particularly as Trump can rely on supportive lawmakers in Congress to push his agenda.

"The result is undoubtedly a blow for the renewable energy industry," said Matt Loffman, an analyst at energy consultant Douglas-Westwood in Houston. "The historic election result is perhaps welcome news for a hydrocarbon industry that has been on the ropes for over two years."

Coal prices already are enjoying a renaissance after China, the world’s largest consumer, cut domestic production, forcing power plants to buy overseas. The cost of thermal coal in the Australian port of Newcastle, a benchmark for Asia, has more than doubled since January to a four-year high of $114.75 a ton.

Shares of big coal miners such as Anglo American Plc, BHP Billiton Plc and Rio Tinto Plc rose between 2 percent and 4 percent on Wednesday. Peabody Energy Corp., one of the largest U.S. coal companies, surged as much as 67 percent. Meantime, wind turbine makers Gamesa Corp.

Tecnologica SA and Nordex SE fell. Solar panel makers plunged in New York, led by SunPower Corp., First Solar Inc. and Canadian Solar Inc.
As coal enjoys a comeback, the biggest loser could be the fight against climate change. Under President Barack Obama, the U.S. rescued a two-decade old process the United Nations promoted to rein in pollution, forging a climate change deal last December. Along with China and more than 190 other countries, the so-called Paris agreement set out a framework for all nations to cut emissions.

It would be difficult, but not impossible for Trump to pull out of the Paris accord. While the Senate never voted on the Paris deal, it’s part of the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which the U.S. ratified under Republican President George H.W. Bush. Trump would have to renounce the 1992 treaty and risk bringing down the entire UN process to scrap Paris. The U.S. would have to give three year’s notice to withdraw from Paris.

But Trump doesn’t need to cancel Paris to derail the process, effectively hampering the growth of renewable energy, analysts and campaigners said.

Yukari Takamura, a professor at Nagoya University in Japan who has followed climate change talks for more than a decade, said the Obama administration took a lead that contributed "enormously" to the Paris deal. "Lack of such leadership might slow down the progress" by unsettling the investors who need to fund renewable developments, she said.

As Trump shapes his energy agenda, the first clue about his priorities could come with his selection for secretary of energy. Obama surrounded himself with policy experts and academics such as Steven Chu and Ernest Moniz. Trump has relied so far on the advice of Harold Hamm, the founder and chief executive officer of Continental Resources Inc., one’s of America’s largest shale oil producers.

Whoever his choice as energy secretary, the global fossil fuels industry, which over the last four years has been on the defensive with Obama, is likely to find a friend in the White House.

"The oil and gas industry is a clear winner with the new president," said Alexandre Andlauer, head of oil at research firm Alphavalue in Paris. “U.S. oil companies have a better future today than yesterday.”


Oct 04,2016 08:01:16

Morning all, Harga coal ditutup menguat +12.34% menjadi US$81.10/mt dikarenakan data produksi India yang tercatat turun -5.4% yoy di bulan Sept dan operasi tambang China yang dipotong menjadi 276 hari/tahun.

Saham coal bisa pesta hari ini


Aug 29,2016 22:08:55
Indonesia Equities: Pricing In Near Term Positives

Key Points

- +9% gains in MSCI Indonesia since our country upgrade in July - Since our upgrade of Indonesian equities to overweight two months ago in the MIG publication after clarity on its tax amnesty programme emerged, sentiment has further improved following the appointment of well respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. The Indonesian equity market has seen strong equity inflows in 3Q16 lifting the index up ~9% (local currency terms, +8.2% in USD), which has outpaced world equities’ gains (+5.2%) for the same period and supported our call.

- Year to date’s gains of +18.6% has also more than recouped 2015’s losses of -12%, which has supported the turnaround highlighted in our January 2016’s South East Asia Equity Strategy report. The equity market rally year to date has been supported by a benign environment of lower interest rates, stable IDR currency vs the USD, under-owned positions in global portfolios and improving confidence in Indonesia’s recovery story. Estimated equity inflows into Indonesia so far for 3Q has exceeded the total inflows for 1H16, driving the market to new highs. Since mid May this year, it is estimated that net equity inflows reached $1.7bln, vs $1.6bln net outflows over the whole of 2015 (source: JPM estimates).

- Near term positives post amnesty and cabinet reshuffle look priced in, valuations are now close to 10 year high – At 16x PER, Indonesian equities is now trading close to +2 standard deviations to its 10 year historical average multiple and at its highest valuation level since 2007, which we believe has priced in much of the near term positives. Although near term liquidity is likely to remain supportive given benign expectations on interest rates, we caution that valuations have caught up and believe it is prudent to start taking some money off the table. On domestic updates, while the recently released 2017 budget is credible, it is unlikely to lead to further corporate earnings upgrades given a moderate government spending target of 6% (planned fiscal deficit for 2017 is 2.4% of GDP, flat/lower than 2016E). Towards the end of September and December which marks the first and second phases of the tax amnesty programme’s staggered tax rates for declared wealth, investor sentiment may also be influenced by expectations over the tax collections.

- Muted start to the 9-month tax amnesty programme, although still early days - As of 23rd August 2016, the asset declaration in the Tax Amnesty Program has reached Rp51.7tn, consisting of 85% onshore/15% offshore assets (12% overseas assets declared, 3% overseas net assets repatriated), while asset repatriation has reached Rp1.6 tn. Momentum of onshore assets declared in first half of August has picked up, with the tax office reporting about Rp11.5tn worth of onshore assets declared (>4x July’s). About three-quarters of the assets declared were from private individuals, and the balance private entities, which we view as supportive of property sector’s recovery given interest rates are expected to remain low while the Ministry of Finance has allowed repatriated funds to be invested in real assets (such as property and gold).

- Looking ahead, earnings upgrades need to pick up momentum for the rally to have more legs - Earnings wise, the recent 2Q results season was mixed with single digit corporate top line growth from a year ago. Concerns on banks remain dragged by asset quality issues while commodity related earnings have been moderate. Following the latest 2Q earnings season (where consensus earnings were trimmed -2% lower for FY16E and FY17E), FY16E and FY17E earnings are now forecast to grow +7% and +14% respectively (higher than Asia ex Japan equities’ 2.2% FY16E and 11% for FY17E respectively) which we believe is priced in current valuations.

Time to lock in some profits – Switch out of names which have rallied and offer no upside to target prices
- Sectors we are cautious on are: Commodity related plays which have rallied and priced in recovery expectations (coal – Bukit Asam, ITMG, palm oil – Astra Agro, London Sumatra), Banks (loans growth will be moderate while we expect asset quality concerns to remain a near term overhang) and Utilities (in particular, Perusahaan Gas – where we think profitability will remain pressured by regulatory efforts to lower gas prices).

Preferred Picks/Switch Ideas

- Preferred Sectors we would accumulate new positions are: Property (Bumi Serpong – Western Jakarta play, large landbank catering to middle income buyers), Telecommunications (Telekomunikasi Indonesia – improving smartphone penetration and data usage supported by a young population), Consumer (Indofood and Media Nusantara, which benefit from an improving domestic economy in 2H16) and Infrastructure (Jasa Marga – No. 1 toll road operator, long term beneficiary of infrastructure development in Indonesia).

- Risks to the current rally include weaker than expected global economy, faster than expected Federal Reserve interest rate hikes which may result in global liquidity volatility and disappointments in the domestic recovery and infrastructure spending pace (continues to be a focus in the 2017 budget, with 9% yoy expected growth).


Aug 29,2016 09:14:47
China imported 9.31 million mt of thermal coal in July, rising 30.7% year on year and up 23.5% from June to the highest level since December 2014, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs Wednesday.

Aug 02,2016 10:58:07
Harga Batu Bara Memanas Signifikan : Harga batu bara meroket ke level tertinggi dalam 17 bulan terakhir seiring dengan langkah China sebagai produsen terbesar di dunia mengubah strategi menjadi importir. Meskipun demikian, harga masih rentan koreksi akibat proyeksi kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve pada kuartal IV/2016. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

Jul 27,2016 08:50:24
EARNINGS CALENDAR (Half Year 2016 - Estimated)

JULY 2016

Jul 25, 2016 :
$BBTN (Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 26, 2016
$BDMN (Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT)
$BMRI (Persero) Tbk PT Earnings Release - 4:00PM GMT+7

Jul 27, 2016
$AALI (Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT)
$HMSP (Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT)
$LPPF (Matahari Department Store Tbk PT)
$MPPA (Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT)
$PTBA (Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 28, 2016
$ASII (Astra International Tbk PT)
$BEST (Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk PT)
$BJBR (PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk)
$DOID (Bloomberg)
$NCO (Vale Indonesia Tbk PT)
$JPFA (Bloomberg)
$PSAB (Bloomberg)
$SSMS (Bloomberg)
$SMGR (Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$UNTR (United Tractors Tbk PT)
$UNVR (Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT)

Jul 29, 2016
$ASRI (Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT)
$ADHI (Bloomberg)
$BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk PT)
$BNGA (Bloomberg)
$BNLI (Bloomberg)
$BNII (Bloomberg)
$BKSL (Bloomberg)
$BHIT (Bloomberg)
$BISI (Bloomberg)
$CPIN (Bloomberg)
$CTRA (Ciputra Development Tbk PT)
$CTRP (Bloomberg)
$ELSA (Bloomberg)
$GIAA (Bloomberg)
$GJTL (Bloomberg)
$GGRM (Gudang Garam Tbk PT)
$NKP (Bloomberg)
$INTP (Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT)
$INDF (Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$ICBP (Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$INDY (Bloomberg)
$KARW (Bloomberg)
$KAEF (Bloomberg)
$KIJA (Bloomberg)
$KLBF (Kalbe Farma Tbk PT)
$KRAS (Bloomberg)
$LPKR (Lippo Karawaci Tbk PT)
$LSIP (Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk PT)
$MAPI (Bloomberg)
$PWON (Bloomberg)
$PNBN, $PNLF, $PNIN (Bloomberg)
$PTPP (Bloomberg)
$RALS (Bloomberg)
$SMRA (Bloomberg)
$TBLA (Bloomberg)
$TLKM (Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$TOTL (Bloomberg)
$WSKT (Bloomberg)

Aug 1, 2016
$HRUM (Harum Energy Tbk PT)
$SSIA (Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT)

Aug 10, 2016
$ITMG (Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk PT)

Aug 12, 2016
$EXCL (XL Axiata Tbk PT)

Aug 29, 2016
$ADRO (Adaro Energy Tbk PT)
$ANTM (Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk PT)
$BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$ISAT (Indosat Tbk PT)
$PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)


Sep 13, 2016
$SMCB (Holcim Indonesia)

Jul 26,2016 21:03:40

*Harga Batu Bara Naik Terdongkrak Aturan Pemerintah Cina*

•Saat ini perusahaan tambang batu bara di dunia diuntungkan oleh aturan yang diberlakukan Pemerintah Cina, yakni dalam sepekan buruh hanya bekerja lima hari. Aturan ini, diberlakukan sejak Maret lalu, dimaksudkan untuk mengurangi produksi batu bara yang berlebih. Sejak itu harga batu bara terdorong naik karena pedagang batu bara di Cina dipaksa untuk mencari kekurangan pasokannya dari luar negeri.

•Kebutuhan batu bara termal untuk keperluan pembangkit listrik membuat Cina tahun ini menambah impor batu baranya menjadi dua kali lipat, dari 140 juta ton tahun lalu. Akibatnya, harga pun naik.

•Indeks Newcastle, yang dijadikan patokan harga batu bara Asia saat ini US$61 per ton. Kenaikan cukup besar dibanding Januari lalu.

•Para analis memperkirakan produksi domestik Cina Mei lalu turun 10-15% ketimbang Mei setahun sebelumnya.

•Sebelum Cina mengumumkan pengurangan jam kerja, saya memperkirakan impor batu bara akan turun 110 juta ton, tahun ini. Di luar dugaan, ternyata malah bertambah 140 juta ton, dan bahkan mungkin lebih tinggi.

•Berkurangnya produksi itu bertepatan dengan naiknya permintaan di Cina, akibat meningkatnya produksi listrik di musim panas ini. Kebutuhan batu bara untuk pembangkit listrik diperkirakan naik 5% pada Juni, dan akan bertambah lagi pada Juli dan Agustus.

*(OCBC, Source : Tambang)*


Jun 06,2016 11:56:33
Could Coal Have Survived by Going Green?

While its rivals innovated and iterated, coal stayed stagnant. Now it’s almost too late.

Coal is getting killed in the U.S. That’s largely because its main customer, the electricity industry, is switching to fuels or sources that are either cheaper or cleaner (or both), like natural gas and renewables. In March, for example, coal accounted for only 24 percent of electricity generated down in the U.S.—that’s down from 33 percent in March 2015 and from 41 percent in March 2014. So far this year, U.S. coal production is just two-thirds of what is was last year.

Coal is being massacred by a combination of market forces—natural gas is really cheap and abundant, renewables are getting cheaper, and meanwhile state and federal regulations and mandates are pushing power producers to use fuels or power sources that create fewer emissions. In such an environment, coal has a hard time competing. (Natural gas produces about half the amount of carbon dioxide per British thermal unit created as coal does.)

The reasons these anti-coal forces have gained real strength in the last several years are largely technological developments and the logic of industrial scale. But coal producers’ response has generally not been to innovate but to respond defensively. They fight regulations and help fund lawsuits aimed at stopping policies that discourage coal use. They back politicians—mostly Republicans but some Democrats—who try to reduce subsidies and support for renewables and attempt to shape laws and regulations in ways that are more favorable to coal. But it hasn’t been working: Republican presidential candidates who run hard on coal keep losing and will likely lose again. In many of the biggest states—California, the entire Eastern seaboard—greens have far more lobbying clout than coal miners.

It’s easy to look back and conclude that it was obvious that the eventual rise of cheap natural gas and utility-scale renewals would spell doom for coal. But it didn’t have to turn out this way. The challengers to coal gained market share and social legitimacy because of unpredictable strides in technology, innovation, and investment. Fracking, continually improved upon and applied at immense scale, made cleaner-burning natural gas extraordinarily cheap, and hence attractive to utilities. Renewables were a laughably small segment of the country’s energy sources several years ago. But a decade of investments in small wind and solar farms, and then in bigger wind and solar farms, and then in huge ones, has likewise made those sources more appealing.

What if coal producers had taken a cue from their rivals and invested systematically in technologies and innovations to make their product greener? Could they have figured out a way to make their dirty rocks emerge as a low-carbon (or even a no-carbon) fuel source? Would coal still be in its precarious position?

Now, it’s not as if the coal industry has simply stood idle while other power sources ate its lunch. There are several large-scale efforts underway around the world aimed at allowing coal to burn more cleanly. The idea is generally to capture or reuse the carbon dioxide and other emissions released when coal is burned. The technology exists. But it currently costs a lot of money to do it, in part because carbon capture is still in the experimental stage. Still, it’s happening: A plant in Saskatchewan, Canada, the Boundary Dam Carbon Capture Project captures up to 90 percent of the carbon dioxide emitted in burning coal—which is then injected into nearby oil fields to improve production. There’s the Kemper plant in Mississippi, which is being supported in part by federal funds, that is designed to capture up to 65 percent of emissions and send the carbon dioxide to oil fields. But it is running massively over budget. A similar project is in the works in Texas.

Carbon-free or carbon-reducing technologies, including clean coal technologies, are always really expensive and kludgy at first, especially compared with the established way of doing business. The first modern electric car had to be an expensive luxury vehicle. The first solar panel systems and wind farms built in this country were uneconomic—both the panels and turbines were exorbitantly expensive, as was the design and construction of the systems. Why? Engineers and project managers had to design processes on the fly. The supply chains serving them lacked the scale and volume of production to bring costs down.

In many industries, the 1.0 iteration is generally expensive and not particularly functional. But then you apply the lessons learned to make the 2.0 version more compelling and cheaper. In the meantime, the underlying technology improves. As the market grows, more competitors enter, which spurs price reduction and further breakthroughs. Higher volumes of orders lead to more scale, which turns expensive specialty products and devices into cheaper commodities. Iterate through that process a few times, and you get a functional industry. That’s precisely what has happened with solar panels, wind turbines, and fracking in the last several years.

This process—moreso than any government war on coal—has made life difficult for coal producers. As rivals have made quantum leaps in efficiency and cost, coal has effectively stood still. Solar and wind and fracking had to leap. Coal didn’t have to, so while the market price of coal may be cheaper now than it was a few years ago, it doesn’t burn much cleaner. In contrast, in some parts of the country today the cheapest electricity a utility can buy is produced by solar.

Now, here’s a thought experiment. Between 2009 and 2015, the U.S. coal industry produced more than 7 billion tons of coal. What if the coal-producing industry in 2009 decided to tax itself—say, $2 for every ton mined—and then plowed that money into demonstration projects, carbon capture research, infrastructure, and subsidies for next-generation coal plants? What if it had invested $14 billion in efforts that would allow coal to be burned with no emissions, or with dramatically fewer emissions?

Doing so would not have guaranteed success, or some miraculous breakthroughs. But I’m reasonably sure that we’d be on the third and fourth generation of carbon capture projects, instead of the first; that the costs of building new carbon-capture projects would be far lower than they are today; that researchers would have developed useful new procedures and equipment; that we’d have an industry that knows how to construct such projects on budget instead of incurring massive overruns.

Of course, this would have required the sort of collective action and foresight of which few industries are capable. But had the coal industry done so, it would have had the possibility of positioning itself as part of the solution to lower emissions, rather than as the bulk of the problem.

You could argue that it’s not the miners’ responsibility to ensure that the use of their resource doesn’t produce negative externalities. They’re not the ones who buy and burn the coal, after all. But that’s not why they should’ve done it. As we’ve seen, the industry’s sole customers—electric utilities—now have choices in how they meet demand for electricity. They can convert plants to run on natural gas, or build large-scale renewables, or focus on efficiency and storage instead of production. They could pull plenty of levers if they want to cut emissions.

The coal industry, which had the most to gain from investments in clean-coal technology, has run out of levers to pull.


May 13,2016 09:25:51

Efisiensi Menopang Emiten Batubara

Harian Kontan mengulas kinerja emiten batubara sepanjang kuartal I yang terlihat masih berat. Tapi, beberapa emiten mulai menunjukkan perbaikan kinerja, setelah banyak tergerus karena merosotnya harga batubara tahun lalu.

Sebagian besar emiten batubara menahan ekspansi. Sebagai gantinya, emiten menggenjot efisiensi. Misalnya saja PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO). Emiten ini mencetak kenaikan laba bersih meski pendapatannya menurun. Dalam tiga bulan pertama tahun ini, perseroan membukukan laba bersih senilai US$ 61 juta, atau naik 3%. Di sisi lain, pendapatan usaha ADRO turun 17,51% menjadi US$ 586 juta karena penurunan harga jual rata-rata.

Harga jual rata-rata ADRO 17% lebih rendah daripada periode sama tahun lalu. Namun, volume penjualan masih stabil, yaitu 13,5 juta ton. Tahun ini, ADRO menargetkan produksi batubara sebesar 52-54 juta ton.

PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) mencetak pertumbuhan penjualan 8,16% menjadi Rp 3,54 triliun. Tapi, laba bersih PTBA turun tipis 2,2%. Pada kuartal I 2016, PTBA menjual 5,23 juta ton batubara atau naik 14% jika dibandingkan penjualan di periode yang sama tahun lalu. Jumlah itu terdiri dari penjualan domestik 2,91 juta ton atau 56% dari total penjualan. Sisanya 2,32 juta ton merupakan ekspor.

PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) juga mencetak kenaikan pendapatan dari US$ 122,17 juta menjadi US$ 126,8 juta. DOID yang merugi US$ 10,43 juta kuartal pertama tahun lalu, mencetak laba bersih US$ 3,06 juta.

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) masih mencetak penurunan pendapatan 18% menjadi US$ 331,1 juta. Laba bersih ITMG pun turun.

Yudha Gautama, Analis Mandiri Sekuritas, mengatakan, beberapa emiten batubara mencatatkan kinerja di atas ekspektasi. Misalnya saja, margin laba ITMG masih lebih baik dari perkiraan.



May 09,2016 16:49:38
PTBA: The coal upgrade
Coal analyst, Janeman Latul upgrades Bukit Asam earnings on the back of better ASP from higher value coal and improvement in cost management. He also emphasizes on railway debottlenecking which should propel the contract fulfillment with PLN. All the positives aside, Janeman still has his concerns on global coal prices. Thus, following the 50% rally YTD, he cuts his rating to O-PF from BUY but increase our target price 32% to Rp7,500/share from Rp5,700/share
- Following the 1Q16 good result, Janeman increases his assumption on ASP considering higher coal while at the same time factoring in China macro data and the demand environment to be generally constructive through 1H16 before tailing in the second half as policy support adjusts.

- To manage the cost better, Bukit Asam shifts from renting heavy equipment & vehicles (among the biggest COGS items) to buy the equipment. PTBA bought Satria Bahana Support (SBS) to do its coal mining services last year and reducing Pama’s role over time.

- Janeman believes in Bukit Asam’s debottlenecking from railway capacity improvement. He forecasts a modest 11% 3-years Cagr on the railway haulage, which will help boost its sales tonnage to 25.5mn tons in 18CL, a 10% Cagr.

- Minor adjustment on 16CL coal price increase by 1% while for 17-18CL our regional team sees flat seaborne thermal coal prices as RMB devaluation erodes the small upside forecast in Chinese coal prices.


Apr 13,2016 09:13:05
ITMG: Weak Fundamentals

ITMG has outperformed the market YTD, which we don’t think is supported by fundamentals. We expect declining earnings and potential rise in oil prices to pressure the share price. As such, we maintain our SELL rating with a price target of IDR4,000, which is based on 12.5% dividend yield. We believe investors have to be compensated by a high yield given ITMG’s limited mine life of less than eight years, much lower than PTBA’s 92 years and ADRO’s 20 years.
Mar 09,2016 12:11:35
YTD coal stocks have performed very well and outperformed the market. $ADRO is up 32.0+, $PTBA +28.2% and $ITMG +16.2% - all way above JCI’s 5.6%. $ADRO is the best performer YTD as we think the market is so excited with the court’s decision on land acquisition case for the Batang power which is in favour of the project. Speaking about diversification into power projects, it’s not only $ADRO doing it, but also $PTBA and $UNTR. $ITMG does not have a power project on hand now, but is actively looking at some opportunities, we believe. The diversification into power is positive, but we think it will take time for the projects to substantially contribute to earnings as we reckon the projects will be ready only in 3-4 years. This means uncertainty in the projects remains high while at the same time coal price remains weak. Having said that, we maintain our Neutral rating on the sector with $PTBA being our top pick due to its strong balance sheet, low cost and high exposure to domestic market.

May 11,2015 12:57:18
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) menguat +0,1% (+3 poin) di level 5184,45 poin pada penutupan perdagangan sesi 1, Senin (11/5). Indeks LQ45 naik +0,15% ke posisi 900. Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) naik +0,27% ke posisi 699 poin. Indeks Kompas 100 naik +0,19% ke level 1.134 poin. IDX30 naik +0,15% ke level 466 poin. Pemodal asing membukukan transaksi net sell (jual bersih) -Rp37 miliar. Transaksi yang tercapai Rp2,136 triliun dengan volume trading sebanyak 5,755 miliar saham. Sektor: Agri +2,07% Mining +1,70% Properti -0,69% Infrastruktur +0,16% Finance +0,04% Trade -0,14% Manufaktur -0,17% Consumer -1,17% Basic ind -0,07% Misc-ind -0,25% Kini sektor agro dan mining menjadi penopang utama laju IHSG pada perdagangan sesi siang awal pekan ini. Saham agri ditunjang oleh naiknya AALI +3,07%. BWPT ++3,75%. DSNG +1,41%. GZCO +1,12%. SIMP +2,34%. SSMS +1,01%. Adapun saham-saham mining yang bergerak naik antara lain: ADRO +5,23%. ANTM +0,63%. ARTI +4,44%. HRUM +2,97%. INCO +1,24%. ITMG +5,51%. Kelompok saham properti bergerak negatif seiring terbitnya Revisi PMK No 90 /PMK.03/2015 tentang pengenaan pajak barang super mewah (PPh 22) untuk properti. Saham-saham properti yang melorot adalah: APLN -1,73%. BSDE -0,28%. CTRA -2,92%. JRPT -7,34%. LPCK -0,90% . LPKR -1,19%. Adapun sektor yang turun paling dalam adalah consumer -1,17%. Koreksi consumer dimotori saham: DVLA -1,11%. KAEF -0,84%. GGRM -0,16%. TSPC -1,67%. ULTJ -2,35%. UNVR -0,06%. Bursa Asia Sentimen kebijan Tiongkok yang memangkas suku bunga menjadi sentimen utama bagi market regional. Bank Sentral Tiongkok (People`s Bank of China (PBOC) menurunkan suku bunga kredit dan deposito bertenor 1 tahun sebesar 25 bps. Indeks Nikkei naik +1,27% (+245,32 poin) ke posisi 19.624,51 poin. Indeks Hang Seng naik +0,50% (+132,29 poin) ke level 27.714,63 poin Indeks Shanghai naik +1,18% (+49,62 poin) ke posisi 4.255,54 poin Indeks Straits Times +0,46% (+15,72 poin) ke level 3.467 poin (pukul 12.00 WIB).