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P H
Oct 13,2017 11:59:42

  • Pendapatan bersih LPKR 1H17 mengalami penurunan 3% YoY
  • Peningkatan divisi healthcare menopang tumbuhnya recurring income
  • Masih lemahnya performa 1H17 menyebabkan kami mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD


LPKR bukukan laba bersih Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Pendapatan bersih LPKR meningkat 3% YoY menjadi Rp4,9 triliun pada 1H17. Sementara GPM perseroan turun dari 43,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 41,1% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh meningkatnya penjualan dari divisi large scale integrated development yang memiliki margin lebih rendah dibandingkan urban developement serta adanya kenaikan beban pokok jasa tenaga ahli, gaji, dan kesejahteraan karyawan dari divisi healthcare sebesar 6,4% YoY. Sementara itu, OPM LPKR mengalami penurunan dari 17,2% pada 1H16 menjadi 12,4% pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan biaya iklan dan pemasaran sebesar 59,4% YoY. Adapun pada 1H17, perseroan membukukan laba penjualan aset yang tersedia untuk dijual sebesar Rp119 miliar dan mengalami penurunan beban bunga sebesar 57,2% YoY menjadi Rp68 miliar. Untuk itu, laba bersih LPKR hanya mengalami penurunan sebesar 2,1% YoY menjadi Rp487 miliar pada 1H17

Recurring income 1H17 meningkat 8% YoY

Recurring income tumbuh 8,0% YoY menjadi Rp3,6 triliun sehingga kontribusi terhadap total pendapatan meningkat dari 65,3% pada 1H16 menjadi 73% pada 1H17. Pertumbuhan itu didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan divisi healthcare sebesar 7,9% YoY menjadi Rp2,8 triliun pada 1H17, yang berasal dari 31 rumah sakit yang dikelola LPKR. Pertumbuhan recurring income tersebut juga didukung oleh meningkatnya pendapatan ritel mal sebesar 16,8% YoY menjadi Rp191 miliar pada 1H17, yang ditopang oleh meningkatnya kontribusi dari Lippo Mall Puri, Baubau, dan Jambi. Hingga 1H17, LPKR mengelola 47 mal yang tersebar di seluruh Indonesia. Sementara itu, pendapatan aset managemen meningkat 9,4% YoY menjadi Rp205 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh bertambahnya aset yang dikelola serta meningkatnya fee dan pendapatan dividen. Di sisi lain, development revenue mengalami penurunan sebesar 24,7% YoY menjadi Rp1,3 triliun pada 1H17 yang disebabkan oleh turunnya pendapatan segmen urban development sebesar 41,0% YoY menjadi Rp687 miliar. Sedangkan pendapatan segmen large scale integrated development meningkat 6,2% YoY menjadi Rp648 miliar pada 1H17 yang didukung oleh peningkatan pengakuan pendapatan dari Orange County, Millenium Village, dan perkantoran Lippo Thamrin.

LPKR raih marketing sales Rp2,6 triliun

LPKR membukukan marketing sales sebesar Rp2,6 triliun pada 1H17, meningkat signifikan hingga di atas 4x lipat dari 1H16. Kenaikan ini ditopang oleh pertumbuhan yang signifikan dari segmen residensial hingga 36x menjadi Rp2,4 triliun pada 1H17. Kendati demikian, jika dibandingkan dengan target hingga akhir tahun sebesar Rp10 triliun, pencapaian marketing sales ini masih rendah, yakni sebesar 27%. Di sisi lain, perseroan telah mendapatkan persetujuan dari pemegang saham terkait akuisisi properti integrasi di Buton. Perseroan akan mengakuisisi Siloam Hospitals Buton yang menyatu dengan retail mall plaza Buton.

Kami memberikan rekomendasi HOLD dengan target harga 800/saham

Kendati mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan, pencapaian marketing sales LPKR hingga 1H17 masih jauh dari target 2017. Di samping itu, performa segmen urban development juga masih membukukan pelemahan sehingga menghambat pemulihan kinerja LPKR. Untuk itu, kami menurunkan target harga dari Rp865/saham menjadi Rp800/saham. Positifnya, perseroan masih diuntungkan oleh model bisnisnya yang mayoritas dikontribusikan oleh recurring income, yang terutama berasal dari segmen healthcare. Kami juga berharap adanya aksi penjualan aset ke REIT yang dapat memberikan dana segar bagi perseroan. Untuk itu, kami tetap mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD atas saham LPKR.

$LPKR $LPCK $SILO

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P H
Dec 06,2016 15:20:19

LPKR books IDR800bn from its asset sales

Lippo Karawaci ($LPKR) has managed to secure IDR800bn from its Lippo Mall Kuta sales. This sales will be booked to LPKR’s marketing sales at the end of this year. The mall has been sold to LMIR Trust. (Bisnis.com).

Bahana comment: This should bring LPKR’s 11M16 marketing sales to IDR1.5tn since the company only booked IDR754bn of marketing sales in 9M16.

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P H
Nov 23,2016 18:54:26

Property: Stay The Course

Share prices of property counters under our coverage have fallen 25% YTD (on average) from their highest levels. With catalysts for the sector in place and with limited downside risk, the sector is currently valued at a 63% discount to RNAV, around -1.4SD from its past 3-year mean of 56% – which looks compelling. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector, while we remain bullish on companies with low gearing ratios, healthy operating cash flow and sufficient landbanks.

¨ Policy rate reversal? We believe a reversal of Bank Indonesia’s (BI) policy rate (Figure 1) is unlikely, as:

i. Indonesia’s real interest rate is positive, at+1.4%;

ii. The BI’s benchmark rate has a wide discrepancy vs that of other countries.

Also, as there is greater uncertainty in the global financial markets in the wake of the US election results, we still think BI will slash its key policy rate by another 25bps to support economic growth – and this may happen as early as 1H17. This is on the expectation of moderate inflation, a manageable current account deficit amid external headwinds for the IDR due to the US Fed Funds rate hike.

¨ Currency impact on earnings. We believe currency fluctuations should have no significant impact on property developers’ earnings, as their costs and revenues are denominated in IDR. For companies with large USD debt exposure – such as Lippo Karawaci and Alam Sutera, where 84% and 80% of their debt is USD – forex gain or loss would be realised only when the debt matures. Our sensitivity calculations indicate that every 2% increase/decline in our forex assumption could result in a 9%/6% decline/increase for Alam Sutera (ASRI)’s earnings and a c.3% decline/increase to Lippo Karawaci ($LPKR)’s net profit in FY17 respectively. We think this is not significant, and would be just a paper profit (or loss) in their books – in terms of recording an unrealised forex gain(or loss) – since both companies’ bonds will mature in 2022.

¨ Accelerated recovery in 2017. We still expect the sector’s recovery to accelerate in 2017 vs this year, based on catalysts like the tax amnesty, a potentially lower benchmark interest rate, relaxation of the loan-to-value (LTV) threshold and the allowance for properties under construction to come under a second mortgage. We note the increased presales activities in October and November. YTD, marketing sales on average have hit 63% of ourFY16F presales target, coupled with potential big commercial land lot sales in pipeline which also reached our targets. As for FY17, we expect presales to grow 12% YoY to IDR31.7trn,as developers continue targeting the middle class segments, selling property with prices ranging between IDR1bn and IDR2bn per unit.

¨ OVERWEIGHT. We continue to favour companies with healthy balance sheets and sufficient landbank, as landed houses are still the most popular type of property to buy (Figure 4). Our Top Pick for the sector is Bumi Serpong Damai ($BSDE). The counter is currently trading at a 66% discount to RNAV, supported by huge landbank totalling 4,092ha, a low net gearing level of 0.1x and FY17F earnings growth of 20% YoY.

¨ Risks include economic slowdown leading to declining purchasing power, slower revenue recognition, as well as external factors such as global financial uncertainties that may indirectly or directly influence investor sentiment. (Lydia Suwandi)

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P H
Nov 17,2016 13:56:16

LPKR to launch mid-low end projects

Lippo Karawaci ($LPKR) plans to launch new projects which consist of 10,000 units of middle-low end housing. The projects reflect LPKR’s commitment to support the government’s housing program to address the current shortage of housing according to the management. The first 2 apartments would be built in Lippo Village and Lippo Cikarang. However, no further details have been disclosed. (Company)

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P H
Nov 15,2016 22:53:29

LPKR 9M16 results: core earnings below expectations.

Lippo Karawaci ($LPKR) posted 9M16 net earnings of IDR665b (+907% YoY), forming 43% of our estimates and 51% of consensus estimates. Excluding forex gain/losses, net earnings would be below our and consensus expectations. Strong revenue growth is booked in LPKR’s recurring income business such as retail malls, healthcare, hospitality and property management. As of 9M16, the recurring income business contributes 68% of total revenue (historically highest level) as the property development revenue recognition continues to slow-down due to its significantly lower pre-sales in the past two years. This leads to continuing EBIT margin dilution. LPKR expects the recognition of asset sales in Lippo Mall Kuta and hospital in Labuan Bajo valuing IDR979b in 4Q16 while the sales recognition of Lippo Mall Jogja and hospital in Jogja valuing IDR900b in 1Q17. We previously expected all the asset sales to be made in 2016. Maintain HOLD for LPKR with TP of IDR1,000.

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P H
Nov 14,2016 17:09:33

Indonesia: Currency update: IDR depreciation: Don’t panic
 
Effects of a shallow FX market; Buying opportunities exist
Based on Bank Indonesia’s data, ytd the average daily turnover for the IDR spot market is only USD1.7bn, which is shallow by regional standards, reflecting just 0.5x of GDP (exhibit 1), one of the lowest among its regional peers. Even worse is the 1M NDF market, which only trades at USD0.7bn a day ytd. Unfortunately, the NDF sometimes can influence the spot market, particularly on pressure stemming from the recent Trump election. However, given such illiquidity, we advise investors to remain calm, particularly as we believe the fundamentals in Indonesia remain largely unchanged. We note that, through years of balance sheet repair since the 1998 Financial Crisis, the Indonesian stock market’s net gearing has improved from more than 150% back then to 27.3% in 9M16. Furthermore, we believe Indonesia is currently in a good position given that its 3Q16 CAD of 1.86% is the lowest since 1Q12. In fact, we think the current situation presents buying opportunities for investors as we expect the IDR to become stronger by year-end. It is worth pointing out that there should still be around USD10bn to come in from tax amnesty repatriation between now and the end of 2016.

Sensitivity analysis: 1% weaker IDR = 0.9% market EPS
Given recent IDR gyrations, we present our latest currency sensitivity analysis on the IDR/1USD, in an effort to aid investors in better gauging their investments in Indonesia. Our study, based on 87 non-financial stocks under our coverage (62% of total JCI market capitalization), shows that each 1% IDR depreciation could lower the EPS of our covered stocks by 0.9% overall (exhibit 5). That said, it is not a surprise that a recent 3% negative swing in the NDF market spooked investors, as it could translate into a 3.6% wipeout in 2017 market EPS growth.  

Winners: Coal, Metals, Oil & Gas and Plantations

A stronger dollar should in general spell good news for sectors with dollar revenue such as Coal, Metals and Oil & Gas and Plantations (exhibit 5). By stock, our sensitivity analysis indicates that $SIMP, $WINS, $TBLA, $PTBA and $SGRO should be the major beneficiaries of IDR deprecation within our basket of stocks (exhibit 2).

Losers: Poultry, Property and Consumer Discretionary
Against a backdrop of a weaker IDR, sectors with large USD costs and borrowings should suffer: Poultry, Property and Consumer Discretionary (exhibit 5). Stock-wise, losers of a stronger dollar include heavily leveraged companies under our coverage: $SMCB, $LPKR and $MAPI (exhibit 3).

Safe havens: Mainly Construction and Telcos  

For investors seeking shelter from currency volatility, we point to the Construction and Telco sectors (exhibit 10 & 24). In terms of stocks, $JSMR, $SCMA, $SIDO and $WSKT (exhibit 4) should have their earnings relatively least altered by FX swings.


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P H
Aug 29,2016 22:08:56
Indonesia Equities: Pricing In Near Term Positives

Key Points

- +9% gains in MSCI Indonesia since our country upgrade in July - Since our upgrade of Indonesian equities to overweight two months ago in the MIG publication after clarity on its tax amnesty programme emerged, sentiment has further improved following the appointment of well respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. The Indonesian equity market has seen strong equity inflows in 3Q16 lifting the index up ~9% (local currency terms, +8.2% in USD), which has outpaced world equities’ gains (+5.2%) for the same period and supported our call.

- Year to date’s gains of +18.6% has also more than recouped 2015’s losses of -12%, which has supported the turnaround highlighted in our January 2016’s South East Asia Equity Strategy report. The equity market rally year to date has been supported by a benign environment of lower interest rates, stable IDR currency vs the USD, under-owned positions in global portfolios and improving confidence in Indonesia’s recovery story. Estimated equity inflows into Indonesia so far for 3Q has exceeded the total inflows for 1H16, driving the market to new highs. Since mid May this year, it is estimated that net equity inflows reached $1.7bln, vs $1.6bln net outflows over the whole of 2015 (source: JPM estimates).


- Near term positives post amnesty and cabinet reshuffle look priced in, valuations are now close to 10 year high – At 16x PER, Indonesian equities is now trading close to +2 standard deviations to its 10 year historical average multiple and at its highest valuation level since 2007, which we believe has priced in much of the near term positives. Although near term liquidity is likely to remain supportive given benign expectations on interest rates, we caution that valuations have caught up and believe it is prudent to start taking some money off the table. On domestic updates, while the recently released 2017 budget is credible, it is unlikely to lead to further corporate earnings upgrades given a moderate government spending target of 6% (planned fiscal deficit for 2017 is 2.4% of GDP, flat/lower than 2016E). Towards the end of September and December which marks the first and second phases of the tax amnesty programme’s staggered tax rates for declared wealth, investor sentiment may also be influenced by expectations over the tax collections.


- Muted start to the 9-month tax amnesty programme, although still early days - As of 23rd August 2016, the asset declaration in the Tax Amnesty Program has reached Rp51.7tn, consisting of 85% onshore/15% offshore assets (12% overseas assets declared, 3% overseas net assets repatriated), while asset repatriation has reached Rp1.6 tn. Momentum of onshore assets declared in first half of August has picked up, with the tax office reporting about Rp11.5tn worth of onshore assets declared (>4x July’s). About three-quarters of the assets declared were from private individuals, and the balance private entities, which we view as supportive of property sector’s recovery given interest rates are expected to remain low while the Ministry of Finance has allowed repatriated funds to be invested in real assets (such as property and gold).


- Looking ahead, earnings upgrades need to pick up momentum for the rally to have more legs - Earnings wise, the recent 2Q results season was mixed with single digit corporate top line growth from a year ago. Concerns on banks remain dragged by asset quality issues while commodity related earnings have been moderate. Following the latest 2Q earnings season (where consensus earnings were trimmed -2% lower for FY16E and FY17E), FY16E and FY17E earnings are now forecast to grow +7% and +14% respectively (higher than Asia ex Japan equities’ 2.2% FY16E and 11% for FY17E respectively) which we believe is priced in current valuations.

Time to lock in some profits – Switch out of names which have rallied and offer no upside to target prices
- Sectors we are cautious on are: Commodity related plays which have rallied and priced in recovery expectations (coal – Bukit Asam, ITMG, palm oil – Astra Agro, London Sumatra), Banks (loans growth will be moderate while we expect asset quality concerns to remain a near term overhang) and Utilities (in particular, Perusahaan Gas – where we think profitability will remain pressured by regulatory efforts to lower gas prices).

Preferred Picks/Switch Ideas

- Preferred Sectors we would accumulate new positions are: Property (Bumi Serpong – Western Jakarta play, large landbank catering to middle income buyers), Telecommunications (Telekomunikasi Indonesia – improving smartphone penetration and data usage supported by a young population), Consumer (Indofood and Media Nusantara, which benefit from an improving domestic economy in 2H16) and Infrastructure (Jasa Marga – No. 1 toll road operator, long term beneficiary of infrastructure development in Indonesia).


- Risks to the current rally include weaker than expected global economy, faster than expected Federal Reserve interest rate hikes which may result in global liquidity volatility and disappointments in the domestic recovery and infrastructure spending pace (continues to be a focus in the 2017 budget, with 9% yoy expected growth).


$PTBA $KKGI $HRUM $ITMG $AALI $LSIP $SGRO $SMAR $PGAS $BBCA $BBRI $BMRI $BBNI $BSDE $ASRI $LPCK $LPKR $CTRA $TLKM $INDF $ICBP $AISA $MNCN $JSMR

Bull
P H
Jul 27,2016 08:50:24
EARNINGS CALENDAR (Half Year 2016 - Estimated)

JULY 2016

Jul 25, 2016 :
$BBTN (Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 26, 2016
$BDMN (Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT)
$BMRI (Persero) Tbk PT Earnings Release - 4:00PM GMT+7

Jul 27, 2016
$AALI (Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT)
$HMSP (Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT)
$LPPF (Matahari Department Store Tbk PT)
$MPPA (Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT)
$PTBA (Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 28, 2016
$ASII (Astra International Tbk PT)
$BEST (Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk PT)
$BJBR (PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk)
$DOID (Bloomberg)
$NCO (Vale Indonesia Tbk PT)
$JPFA (Bloomberg)
$PSAB (Bloomberg)
$SSMS (Bloomberg)
$SMGR (Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$UNTR (United Tractors Tbk PT)
$UNVR (Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT)

Jul 29, 2016
$ASRI (Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT)
$ADHI (Bloomberg)
$BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk PT)
$BNGA (Bloomberg)
$BNLI (Bloomberg)
$BNII (Bloomberg)
$BKSL (Bloomberg)
$BHIT (Bloomberg)
$BISI (Bloomberg)
$CPIN (Bloomberg)
$CTRA (Ciputra Development Tbk PT)
$CTRP (Bloomberg)
$ELSA (Bloomberg)
$GIAA (Bloomberg)
$GJTL (Bloomberg)
$GGRM (Gudang Garam Tbk PT)
$NKP (Bloomberg)
$INTP (Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT)
$INDF (Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$ICBP (Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$INDY (Bloomberg)
$KARW (Bloomberg)
$KAEF (Bloomberg)
$KIJA (Bloomberg)
$KLBF (Kalbe Farma Tbk PT)
$KRAS (Bloomberg)
$LPKR (Lippo Karawaci Tbk PT)
$LSIP (Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk PT)
$MAPI (Bloomberg)
$PWON (Bloomberg)
$PNBN, $PNLF, $PNIN (Bloomberg)
$PTPP (Bloomberg)
$RALS (Bloomberg)
$SMRA (Bloomberg)
$TBLA (Bloomberg)
$TLKM (Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$TOTL (Bloomberg)
$WSKT (Bloomberg)

AUGUST 2016
Aug 1, 2016
$HRUM (Harum Energy Tbk PT)
$SSIA (Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT)

Aug 10, 2016
$ITMG (Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk PT)

Aug 12, 2016
$EXCL (XL Axiata Tbk PT)

Aug 29, 2016
$ADRO (Adaro Energy Tbk PT)
$ANTM (Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk PT)
$BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$ISAT (Indosat Tbk PT)
$PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

SEPTEMBER

Sep 13, 2016
$SMCB (Holcim Indonesia)

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P H
Apr 20,2016 08:50:54
Akhirnya, Pemerintah Terbitkan Aturan Kepemilikan Hunian untuk Orang Asing http://kom.ps/AFuuNb

Berikut daftar harga minimal pembelian rumah tinggal oleh orang asing:

DKI Jakarta Rp 10 miliar
Banten Rp 5 miliar
Jawa Barat Rp 5 miliar
Jawa Tengah Rp 3 miliar
Yogyakarta Rp 3 miliar
Jawa Timur Rp 5 miliar
Bali Rp 3 miliar
Nusa Tenggara Barat Rp 2 miliar
Sumatera Utara Rp 2 miliar
Kalimantan Timur Rp 2 miliar
Sulawesi Selatan Rp 2 miliar
Daerah lainnya Rp 1 miliar

Berikut daftar harga minimal pembelian satuan rumah susun (apartemen) oleh orang asing:

DKI Jakarta Rp 5 miliar
Banten Rp 1 miliar
Jawa Barat Rp 1 miliar
Jawa Tengah
Yogyakarta Rp 1 miliar
Jawa Timur Rp 1,5 miliar
Bali Rp 2 miliar
Nusa Tenggara Barat Rp 1 miliar
Sumatera Utara Rp 1 miliar
Kalimantan Timur Rp 1 miliar
Sulawesi Selatan Rp 1 miliar
Daerah lain Rp 750 juta

Akhirnya, Pemerintah Terbitkan Aturan Kepemilikan Hunian untuk Orang Asing

Kementerian Agraria dan Tata Ruang/Badan Pertanahan Nasional (ATR/BPN) akhirnya mengeluarkan aturan kepemilikan hunian bagi orang asing.

Aturan tersebut tertuang dalam Peraturan Menteri ATR/Kepala BPN Nomor 13 Tahun 2016 tentang tata cara pemberian, pelepasan, atau pengalihan hak atas pemilikan rumah tempat tinggal atau hunian oleh orang asing yang berkedudukan di Indonesia.

"Sudah saya tanda tangani dan ini menjadi tindak lanjut dari Peraturan Pemerintah Nomor 103 Tahun 2015," ujar Menteri ATR/BPN Ferry Mursyidan Baldan di Batam, Kamis (14/4/2016).

Aturan kepemilikan hunian bagi orang asing dikeluarkan untuk mendorong iklim investasi di Indonesia. Menurut Ferry, selama ini investor asing membutuhkan fasilitas perumahan untuk mendukung bisnis mereka di Indonesia.

"Ini bagian kemudahan perizinan. Kita berikan percepatan, ketepatan, dan kepastian bagi investor," katanya.

Kepemilikan dapat berupa rumah tunggal ataupun rumah susun dan hanya diberikan kepada orang asing yang memiliki izin tinggal di Indonesia.

Selain itu, pembelian hanya berlaku untuk pembelian baru langsung dari pengembang atau pemilik.

$BSDE $ASRI $CTRP $CTRA $CTRS $PWON $APLN $LPCK $LPKR
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P H
Mar 08,2016 08:34:48
Lippo Karawaci ($LPKR): 4Q15 results: Below our and consensus estimates

- Hurt by lower development incomes and FX losses: LPKR booked 4Q15 revenue of IDR2.2tn, up 7% q-q but down 61% y-y, and a net profit of IDR469bn (-69% y-y), bringing full-year bottom line to IDR535bn, below our (43%) and consensus (35%) estimates, dragged down by IDR155bn FX loss and lower development income (2015: 38%; 2014: 59%). However, 2015 top line of IDR8.9tn was down 23.6% y-y, in line with our projection (98%) but below the consensus forecast (89%). We believe that most of the 4Q15 revenue was contributed by its subsidiary Lippo Cikarang’s ($LPCK) successful project launches including the Orange County mega project in previous years. However, note that in 2014 LPKR booked additional revenue of IDR3.37tn from its Kemang mall sale in 4Q14.

- 2015 recurring revenue contributed 62% of total: In 2015, LPKR managed to book IDR5.5tn in recurring revenue (62% of total revenue), mostly contributed by its subsidiary Siloam International Hospitals’ ($SILO) solid 2015 top line of IDR4.14tn (+24% y-y).

- Pretax and net margins jumped in 4Q15 on IDR631bn FX gain: LPKR's 4Q15 pretax profit reached IDR760bn versus a IDR564bn loss in 3Q15, backed by its IDR631bn FX gain (3Q15 FX loss: IDR763bn) on its USD803mn bonds due to the IDR strengthening which closed at IDR13,788/USD1. This led to pretax and net margins increasing to 35.3% and 21.8% in 4Q15.

Outlook: Downward earnings revisions on pre-sales adjustments
Despite LPCK’s successful residential and commercial project launches in Cikarang in 2015, we reduce our 2016-17 top line assumptions by 1-9% given lower-than-expected 2015 pre-sales of IDR3.6tn (Bahana: IDR3.8tn); our 2016 marketing sales of IDR4.8tn is much lower than LPKR’s pre-sales guidance of IDR6.7tn. On the bottom line, we cut our 2016-17 EPS estimates by 9-11% (exhibit 5). Separately, LPKR plans to launch IDR1.7tn REIT this year.

Recommendation: Retain HOLD with unchanged 12-M TP of IDR1,100
Despite LPKR’s share price underperformance (exhibit 4) partly due to the negative sentiment stemming from its 2015 performance, we retain our HOLD rating given its unsuccessful project launches. Thus, we retain our NAV-based TP of IDR1,100 (unchanged 60% NAV discount, exhibit 7). Nevertheless, we see upside risks for LPKR in the form of: stronger IDR (due to USD814mn debt), rising recurring incomes, higher-than-expected 2016 guidance and a likely REIT issuance in 2016. On the flip side, downside risks are lower-than-expected marketing sales and unsuccessful REIT issuance.

Source: Daiwa Research
Bear
P H
Mar 07,2016 09:17:16
Indonesia Property Sector: Modest Improvement in Outlook

Stay Selective – Focus on Quality Property Names In this paper, we provide an update on the Indonesia property sector and highlight the top recommendations in our coverage. Conditions have improved since our sector update in October 2015 – the rupiah has stabilised, consumer confidence has recovered from a 3Q15 trough, and mortgage rates are declining. Developers are guiding cautiously for 2016 presales (+9% YoY) and physical property price gains remain subdued but we expect further gradual improvement in the outlook for the sector over the coming months. We recommend accumulating selected property names in stages with a 12-month view, staying focused on quality developers with long operating histories, strong balance sheets and solid execution records.

We remain positive on developers with large exposure and landbanks in Greater Jakarta, despite a temporary softening in property prices there, as we expect it to remain Indonesia’s main economic hub for the foreseeable future. We believe that rising incomes, ongoing urbanisation and further improvements in infrastructure such as the high-speed rail, MRT and LRT projects will continue to drive long term demand for quality residential and commercial property in the area. Potential short term catalysts for the developers under our coverage are better than expected presales in 1H16, stronger economic growth, and further regulatory changes that are supportive of the property sector, such as allowing mortgage financing for second homes that are still under construction.

Our top pick is Bumi Serpong Damai ($BSDE), Indonesia’s biggest property developer by market cap and landbank. BSDE has the strongest balance sheet among the developers in our coverage, with net gearing of just 6% at end-3Q15. Current valuations are attractive at more than one standard deviation below its 5-year average PB and PE, given its vast, low cost landbank centred on BSD City in Greater Jakarta, and wide product range, which gives it flexibility to vary its product mix in response to changes in demand or regulations affecting a particular segment. We think the company is in an excellent position to ride a recovery in property demand as buyer sentiment improves and the macro environment turns more supportive.

We also like Lippo Karawaci ($LPKR) for its diversified property portfolio within Greater Jakarta and new projects in Makassar, as well as its market-leading Siloam private hospital business. Its shares sold off in early December following a weak 3Q15 earnings report and a cut in its FY15 presales guidance but we think the correction is overdone and we believe the longer term outlook for LPKR remains positive, given its large Greater Jakarta footprint and exposure to healthcare.

We also continue to favour Pakuwon Jati ($PWON) for its large recurring revenue contribution from a high-quality mall portfolio in Jakarta and Surabaya; we expect revenue support from rental increases this year as 21% of its mall leases are up for renewal.

Bear
P H
May 11,2015 12:57:20
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) menguat +0,1% (+3 poin) di level 5184,45 poin pada penutupan perdagangan sesi 1, Senin (11/5). Indeks LQ45 naik +0,15% ke posisi 900. Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) naik +0,27% ke posisi 699 poin. Indeks Kompas 100 naik +0,19% ke level 1.134 poin. IDX30 naik +0,15% ke level 466 poin. Pemodal asing membukukan transaksi net sell (jual bersih) -Rp37 miliar. Transaksi yang tercapai Rp2,136 triliun dengan volume trading sebanyak 5,755 miliar saham. Sektor: Agri +2,07% Mining +1,70% Properti -0,69% Infrastruktur +0,16% Finance +0,04% Trade -0,14% Manufaktur -0,17% Consumer -1,17% Basic ind -0,07% Misc-ind -0,25% Kini sektor agro dan mining menjadi penopang utama laju IHSG pada perdagangan sesi siang awal pekan ini. Saham agri ditunjang oleh naiknya AALI +3,07%. BWPT ++3,75%. DSNG +1,41%. GZCO +1,12%. SIMP +2,34%. SSMS +1,01%. Adapun saham-saham mining yang bergerak naik antara lain: ADRO +5,23%. ANTM +0,63%. ARTI +4,44%. HRUM +2,97%. INCO +1,24%. ITMG +5,51%. Kelompok saham properti bergerak negatif seiring terbitnya Revisi PMK No 90 /PMK.03/2015 tentang pengenaan pajak barang super mewah (PPh 22) untuk properti. Saham-saham properti yang melorot adalah: APLN -1,73%. BSDE -0,28%. CTRA -2,92%. JRPT -7,34%. LPCK -0,90% . LPKR -1,19%. Adapun sektor yang turun paling dalam adalah consumer -1,17%. Koreksi consumer dimotori saham: DVLA -1,11%. KAEF -0,84%. GGRM -0,16%. TSPC -1,67%. ULTJ -2,35%. UNVR -0,06%. Bursa Asia Sentimen kebijan Tiongkok yang memangkas suku bunga menjadi sentimen utama bagi market regional. Bank Sentral Tiongkok (People`s Bank of China (PBOC) menurunkan suku bunga kredit dan deposito bertenor 1 tahun sebesar 25 bps. Indeks Nikkei naik +1,27% (+245,32 poin) ke posisi 19.624,51 poin. Indeks Hang Seng naik +0,50% (+132,29 poin) ke level 27.714,63 poin Indeks Shanghai naik +1,18% (+49,62 poin) ke posisi 4.255,54 poin Indeks Straits Times +0,46% (+15,72 poin) ke level 3.467 poin (pukul 12.00 WIB).
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