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P H
Jan 16,2017 09:53:54

Pembangunan Perumahan Persero: Exciting Earnings Outlook Ahead

We maintain our BUY call with a new TP of IDR5,100 (from IDR5,400, 37% upside) based on unchanged P/E target of 22x, +1SD above its historical mean. This is on the back of a stronger outlook post the completion of its rights issue in Dec-16. $PTPP’s new contracts performance in FY16 was above our estimates and we expect new contracts to grow to IDR38trn in FY17F, fuelled by power plants, low cost housing and other infrastructure projects. We expect a lower interest expense due to stronger balance sheet and earnings to grow 54% YoY in FY17F.

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P H
Dec 08,2016 12:22:09

Indonesia Toll Road Authority (BPJT) to postpone 2 toll road sections’ tenders

Head of BPJT Tender Committee, Eka Pria Anas, stated that BPJT would postpone Probolinggo – Banyuwangi (170.4km; Rp18.4tn) and Semarang – Demak (24km; Rp2.96tn) sections tender to early 2017 as the location has yet been decided by the governor. Note that 3 toll road business entity (BUJT) passed the prequalification for Probolinggo – Banyuwangi section, namely Enka Insast Ve Sanayi (Turkey), Jasa Marga ($JSMR)’s consortium (with Waskita Toll Road and Brantas Abipraya), and Pembangunan Perumahan ($PTPP). While 2 BUJTs passed the prequalification for Semarang – Demak section, namely JSMR’s consortium (with Waskita Toll Road) and $PTPP’s consortium (with $WIKA). (Bisnis Indonesia)

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P H
Dec 02,2016 13:10:58

PTPP to spend 2017 capex of IDR26tn

In 2017, Pembangunan Perumahan ($PTPP) is planning to spend full-year capex amounting to IDR26tn, +550% y-y. Tumiyana, Director of PTPP, stated that the allocation of capex would be mainly for energy sector with 40%, residential projects with 18%, while the remaining 42% for infrastructure projects like ports and airports. (Bisnis.com)

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P H
Nov 17,2016 13:44:01

Megapolitan Developments ($EMDE) appointed Pembangunan Perumahan ($PTPP) to construct Galleria Mall Vivo

Tirta Persada Development (EMDE’s subsidiary) has assigned PTPP as the main contractor to construct Galleria Mall Vivo in the 17ha Vivo Sentul Integrated Area. Both companies hope to commence and finish the construction by the end of 2016 and 2017 respectively. The investment cost for this project reached Rp750bn while the construction cost stood at Rp600bn. (Bisnis Indonesia)

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P H
Nov 15,2016 23:55:44

$PTPP to invest in Indonesia’s first Metro Capsule project

Through its infrastructure subsidiary, PTPP is planning to invest a total IDR500bn in mass transport project in Bandung, West Java. The first phase will be a 3km project from Bandung station to city center, with 1 year construction period. Currently, PTPP Infra has completed the trial stage of the project. 

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P H
Nov 09,2016 11:50:51

Pembangunan Perumahan Persero ($PTPP): Paving The Way For Stronger Growth

Pembangunan Perumahan has set its rights issue price range at IDR2,580-3,583. We expect its outlook to improve post-exercise – as this would lift the overhang on the stock, strengthen its balance sheet and underpin earnings growth. Post-exercise, the company expects to book IDR1.7trn in net profit in FY17, which is much higher than our and consensus estimates. Its current new contracts won and 3Q16 results are in line with our estimates. We recommend a strong BUY on this stock, with an unchanged TP of IDR5,400 (36% upside), pre-rights issue.

¨ Rights issue details. Pembangunan Perumahan has set its rights issue price range at IDR2,580-3,583, with the maximum number of shares at 6,552m units. The company plans to raise IDR4.411trn from the exercise, including a IDR2.25trn fund injection from the Government. It aims to use the funds for capex and working capital for infrastructure projects across the nation. Hence, this may trigger higher earnings growth ahead. We also think that the current overhang on its share price would be eliminated.

¨ 4Q16 outlook. In 9M16, earnings were at IDR566.8bn (+49.9% YoY) or 61% of our FY16 estimate –above its seasonal historical average of 43%. Thus, we are confident that it would likely achieve our FY16F earnings. Moreover, its gross margin could be at 14.5% this year, which marks a YoY increase.

¨ Orderbook. Pembangunan Perumahan recorded strong new contract wins up toIDR25.4trn in 10M16, ie at 82% of our and its full-year estimates. This was also higher than its seasonal historical average of 70% over the past two years. Thus, we are positive that it could easily achieve the FY16 target. For FY17, we expect its new contracts value to improve to IDR36.4trn, supported by infrastructure projects such as power plants, low-cost housing and seaports.

¨ BUY, with TP of IDR5,400. We reiterate our BUY call, with TP of IDR5,400 based on 22x FY17F P/E, +1SD from its historical forward P/E average. Our TP is also supported by our DCF valuation of IDR5,406 per share.

¨ Key risks. There may be a short-term overhang on the stock due to the rights issue. Other downside risks include delays in infrastructure projects and the prolonged soft demand in the property sector in FY17.

¨ Post-rights issue valuation. We expect its outlook to improve post rights issue. With the rights proceeds, its balance sheet would strengthen and its orderbook may improve, and in turn drive earnings growth. The company’s new targeted contract value for FY17 of IDR38trn is 4% higher than our estimate of IDR36.4trn. With the higher targeted contract value, the company also expects to lift FY17 earnings to IDR1.7trn, whichis43%/39%above our/consensus estimates. Having said that and using an unchanged target FY17F P/E of 22x, we expect our TP post-exercise to be around IDR5,507-5,941. (Dony Gunawan)

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P H
Nov 08,2016 19:01:39

Four listed SOEs to soon complete rights issuance process

Rini Soemarno, the Minister of State Owned Enterprises, stated that all the Government Regulation (PP) has been approved which should pave way for rights issue of Wijaya Karya ($WIKA), Jasa Marga ($JSMR), Krakatau Steel ($KRAS) and Pembangunan Perumahan ($PTPP). For $WIKA, the rights trading date would occur on 17-23 November 2016 while $JSMR’s rights trading date would happen on 1-7 December 2016. On separate occasion, the SOE Ministry is also considering IPO of Brantas Abipraya, a state-owned construction company

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P H
Jul 27,2016 08:50:24
EARNINGS CALENDAR (Half Year 2016 - Estimated)

JULY 2016

Jul 25, 2016 :
$BBTN (Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 26, 2016
$BDMN (Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT)
$BMRI (Persero) Tbk PT Earnings Release - 4:00PM GMT+7

Jul 27, 2016
$AALI (Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT)
$HMSP (Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT)
$LPPF (Matahari Department Store Tbk PT)
$MPPA (Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT)
$PTBA (Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 28, 2016
$ASII (Astra International Tbk PT)
$BEST (Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk PT)
$BJBR (PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk)
$DOID (Bloomberg)
$NCO (Vale Indonesia Tbk PT)
$JPFA (Bloomberg)
$PSAB (Bloomberg)
$SSMS (Bloomberg)
$SMGR (Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$UNTR (United Tractors Tbk PT)
$UNVR (Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT)

Jul 29, 2016
$ASRI (Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT)
$ADHI (Bloomberg)
$BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk PT)
$BNGA (Bloomberg)
$BNLI (Bloomberg)
$BNII (Bloomberg)
$BKSL (Bloomberg)
$BHIT (Bloomberg)
$BISI (Bloomberg)
$CPIN (Bloomberg)
$CTRA (Ciputra Development Tbk PT)
$CTRP (Bloomberg)
$ELSA (Bloomberg)
$GIAA (Bloomberg)
$GJTL (Bloomberg)
$GGRM (Gudang Garam Tbk PT)
$NKP (Bloomberg)
$INTP (Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT)
$INDF (Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$ICBP (Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$INDY (Bloomberg)
$KARW (Bloomberg)
$KAEF (Bloomberg)
$KIJA (Bloomberg)
$KLBF (Kalbe Farma Tbk PT)
$KRAS (Bloomberg)
$LPKR (Lippo Karawaci Tbk PT)
$LSIP (Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk PT)
$MAPI (Bloomberg)
$PWON (Bloomberg)
$PNBN, $PNLF, $PNIN (Bloomberg)
$PTPP (Bloomberg)
$RALS (Bloomberg)
$SMRA (Bloomberg)
$TBLA (Bloomberg)
$TLKM (Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$TOTL (Bloomberg)
$WSKT (Bloomberg)

AUGUST 2016
Aug 1, 2016
$HRUM (Harum Energy Tbk PT)
$SSIA (Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT)

Aug 10, 2016
$ITMG (Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk PT)

Aug 12, 2016
$EXCL (XL Axiata Tbk PT)

Aug 29, 2016
$ADRO (Adaro Energy Tbk PT)
$ANTM (Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk PT)
$BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$ISAT (Indosat Tbk PT)
$PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

SEPTEMBER

Sep 13, 2016
$SMCB (Holcim Indonesia)

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P H
Jul 22,2016 16:40:33
PTPP akan melukan RUPSLB untuk Right Issue pada 23 Agustus 2016. Pemerintah akan menyertakan modal tambahan sebesar Rp2.25 triliun dan publik 2,15 triliun, sehingga didapat dana baru Rp4,4 triliun. Saham baru yang akan diterbitkan maksimal 1,78 milar. Bila dihitung maka harga terendah pelaksanaan Right Issue sekitar Rp2.500/saham.

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P H
Jul 13,2016 11:44:26
Pemerintah menyetujui rencana penerbitan saham baru (rights issue) 4 perusahaan pelat merah, yakni JSMR, WIKA, PTPP, KRAS. target pendanaan dari rights issue keempat perseroan tersebut sebesar Rp 14,3 triliun. Penyertaan Modal Negara (PMN) sebesar Rp9 triliun untuk menyerap sebagian besar saham keempat BUMN tersebut. Sisanya sebesar Rp5,3 triliun diharapkan dari partisipasi publik.

Aksi korporasi ini merupakan bagian dari program privatisasi dan penguatan modal keempat Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN)  Aloysius Kiik Ro, Deputi Bidang Restrukturisasi dan Pengembangan Usaha Kementerian BUMN mengungkapkan.

$JSMR $WIKA $PTPP $KRAS
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P H
Jun 15,2016 10:18:16
Oil at US$50/bbl – Sweet Spot for Indonesia; Tax Amnesty – On Schedule for June 2016 Implementation

- Higher oil price will reduce fiscal deficit — The Indonesian government now expects incremental revenue from the recent bounce in oil price to ~US$50/bbl. Despite Indonesia is a net importer of oil & gas, fiscal deficit could decline by Rp0.1- 0.9trn based on government’s calculation for every US$1/bbl of oil price increase. The government is currently using an oil price of US$35/bbl in their 2016 proposed budget and thus with higher oil prices, they should receive additional revenue from the oil & gas sector.

- Gasoline being sold at c.US$50/bbl equivalent after taking into account the distribution margins of Pertamina — The current price of gasoline at Rp6,550/litre translates to c.US$48-50/bbl of oil prices. Thus the government is already at a comfortable level in terms of the selling prices of gasoline, and should see no pressure to increase the prices unless the oil prices were to increase to a higher level, say US$55-60/bbl. At Rp6,550/litre, Pertamina is making a distribution margin of Rp1,010/litre, as per government calculations (see Fig 1 for government’s detailed calculation of fuel prices).

- Non-subsidized fuel (RON97) in Malaysia is cheaper vs that in Indonesia — RON95 gasoline price in Indonesia (Rp8,250/litre) is +22% higher than RON97 price in Malaysia (Rp6,715/litre). The RON97 in Malaysia is a non-subsidize fuel while the RON95 is still being subsidized and sold at Rp5,575/litre.

- Tax amnesty is still on schedule to be passed in June 2016 — We see such an outcome as not being priced in by the market (see our recent Indonesian strategy note - Still Positive: Spotlight on Five Key Issues for Market). The parliament head of commission XI, Ahmadi Noor Supi, mentioned that tax amnesty bill will not get delayed since it is a critical part of the government’s 2016 budget revision. As per the government, they have included proceeds amounting to ~Rp103trn (US$7-8bn) from the tax amnesty bill in the 2016 revised budget.

- Maintain our positive view on the market — At a 1-year forward PER of 15.1x, the JCI is not cheap but nor does it look overly expensive, and we maintain our 5,700 target (+16%) set last October. Sector-wise, we continue to like property, construction and infra. $ASII rejoins our top picks and we see more value in banks as gainers from the expected passage of a tax amnesty bill. Top picks: $BBNI, $BBTN, $LPPF, $TLKM, $ASII, $MIKA, $PTPP, $ADHI, $BSDE, $CTRA, $PWON and $JSMR.

- Key market catalysts and risks — 1) Tax amnesty; 2) Lower personal income tax which would lift purchasing power. Risks: 1) Fed rate hikes; 2) Delay in passage of tax amnesty; 3) Heavy-handed policy intervention

 
Bull
P H
May 02,2016 08:48:05
PTPP’s 1Q16 posts solid 1Q16 results

PT PP ($PTPP) registered 1Q16 operating profit of Rp261 bn, an increase of 36% YoY, which was mainly driven by higher revenue (+31% YoY) , 81% increase in joint from operation , as well as efficiency in Opex at 4.0% of revenue (vs. 1Q15=4.7%). Below operating line, profitability was partly ate up by higher other expenses (+37% YoY) on rising interest expenses (+72% YoY) and higher minority interest at its property unit. However, 1Q16 net income of Rp97.4 bn (+4% YoY), forming 11% of our FY16 net profit forecasts, was within historical seasonality with 1Q met around 10-13% of full year numbers.

Comment: We are satisfied with PTPP 1Q16 earnings and we maintain our Buy rating on PTPP with TP of Rp4,450.
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P H
Apr 26,2016 09:00:30
Higher Infrastructure Spending: Where Does The Money Come From?
 
¨ The government’s energy subsidy reform has allowed it to increase its infrastructure spending since 2015 via saving from the subsidy.

¨ Indonesia’s state budget, however, will likely face downward pressure due to lower-than-expected oil price compared with the budget’s assumption of USD50/barrel. Taking into account our macro assumptions of the government continues its spending in 2016, coupled with the uncertainty of tax amnesty bill to be introduced in 1H16, we project the fiscal deficit to widen to 2.7% of GDP, from last year’s -2.5% of GDP.

¨ Nonetheless, to overcome the income shortfall, the government plans to cut its budget expenditure. This will likely affect the country’s economic growth somewhat, posing a downside risk to our real GDP growth forecast of 5.1% for 2016.

¨ In the short run, excise duties on selected products could be increased, including tobacco, fuel, and vehicles. Over the medium term, tax reform should aim at broadening the tax base and increasing the VAT rate, while tax administration should adopt a risk-based approach to reduce tax evasion.

$WSKT $ADHI $PTPP $WIKA
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P H
Apr 11,2016 09:44:59
Infrastructure is a hot commodity in ASEAN. With global economy remains uncertain, the focus has shifted to domestic sectors such as infrastructure. Today we published a 130-page report on ASEAN infrastructure where we look at, among other things, opportunities, funding requirements and challenges across countries in ASEAN. In Indonesia, we continue to be positive on infrastructure sector, and believe the country has reached a point where it is in a desperate need for infrastructure. You can see from various publications and statistics that Indonesia needs infrastructure in almost all sectors, such as power, roads, airports, seaports, etc. So, it is the right strategy by the government not to prioritize one sector over another. In terms of sector attractiveness, we think power sector is on top of our list due to, among other things, less risk in currency mismatch and abundant sources of energy. The next attractive one is road sector. That is our first takeaway.
 
Our second takeaway is that government has strong support for infrastructure as shown by big allocation for infrastructure in the state budget (over 2% of GDP which is the highest ever). However, state budget is not the only funding source because funding from SOE and private sectors accounts for more than 50% of total funding needs, suggesting diversified funding. Despite high reliance on SOE and private sectors, the government does not provide any guarantee for projects, suggesting fiscal prudent policy. The government will continue providing their supports through, for instance, accelerations of permit issuances.
 
In conclusion, we reiterate our positive view on the sector. Construction, toll road and property companies will be the main beneficiaries. We have chosen three stocks as top picks in Indonesia: $PTPP, $WSKT and $BSDE.
 
In terms of risk factor, implementation especially in land acquisition is the biggest one.
Bull
P H
Mar 21,2016 08:19:53
Pembangunan Perumahan ($PTPP), The Safest Choice In The Industry

We continue to like Pembangunan Perumahan due to: i) potential GM expansion from its power plant project, ii) the safest play in Indonesia’s infrastructure industry, and iii) management’s conservative target with a potential increase to come from several projects. Maintain BUY with a new TP of IDR4,200 (from IDR4,290, 11% upside) based on an unchanged 22x FY16F P/E, supported by our DCF valuation.

¨ Gross margin expansion. We think Pembangunan Perumahan Persero’s (Pembangunan Perumahan) FY16 gross margin would be around 14.5% (14.1% in FY15) since contribution from its engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) business is likely to be rise to 10% this year, from 6.5% last year. We expect its EPC GM to be around 20% vs the 22% in FY15.

¨ A safer choice. Though Pembangunan Perumahan’s earnings growth is not as fast as other SOEs, we believe it is still the safest pick in Indonesia’s construction industry. This is due to its good reputation in the building and seaport construction segments, which have provided it with the flexibility of obtaining both private and government projects.

¨ Conservative management guidance. This year, Pembangunan Perumahan expects IDR916bn in net profit (+25.1% YoY), while its revenue target is only around IDR20.2trn. Its new contract target for this year is around IDR31trn (+14.5% YoY), with IDR39.1trn (+31% YoY) in carryover contracts. This target excludes the Kalibaru Seaport (New Tanjung Priok) phase two (IDR5trn-7trn) and Jakarta Inner City toll road project worth IDR1.1trn. Given this guidance, we think NPAT could reach IDR925bn (+24.9%YoY), slightly below our previous estimate of IDR944bn.

¨ 4Q15 earnings: above estimates

¨ FY15 earnings were 6.8% and 8.3% above our and consensus estimates respectively, due to gross margin expansion of its EPC business (power plant project). Post our FY16F NPAT adjustments, we maintain our BUY call with new TP of IDR4,200 based on an unchanged 22x FY16F P/E, +1SD above its historical forward P/E. This is supported by our DCF-based valuation of IDR4,214 (WACC: 11.6%, TG: 3%).
Bull
P H
Mar 07,2016 10:10:42
Wijaya Karya Beton ($WTON), We Expect Its GPM To Improve ….

… although it may still be below its historical highs of 13.1-14.9% since competition in the precast industry may intensify this year as its competitors increase their capacities. Also uncertainty of the high-speed train project could have a negative impact on its performance. FY15 NPAT was above our estimates, but lower then consensus, therefore we remain NEUTRAL on Wika Beton, while our DCF-derived TP of IDR870 (from IDR830, 8% downside) implies a 31.9x FY16F P/E.

¨ Competition remains stiff. We expect Wijaya Karya Beton (Wika Beton) to see intense competition from other state-owned enterprises (SOEs) such as Waskita Karya ($WSKT), Pembangunan Perumahan ($PTPP) and Adhi Karya ($ADHI). Waskita Karya is scheduled to grow its capacity to 2.35m tonnes pa from 1.63m tonnes pa and would become the second biggest precast producer in the market. Meanwhile, Pembangunan Perumahan may add 400,000 tonnes pa production capacity via its facilities in Sentul and Bekasi.

¨ We expect GPM to recover this year, given increased spending by the Government, while Wika Beton’s parent Wijaya Karya’s ($WIKA) new contract target would benefit the former. Thus, we expect its GPM to improve to approximately 12.8% in FY16-17, vs 12.4% last year. However, this is far below its historical high GPMs of c.13.1-14.9% (recorded in 2012-2014), given the potentially tough competition in the precast industry.

¨ The high-speed train (HST) project still has an uncertain future. The Ministry of Transportation has not given yet the approval for the project to the consortium (made up of Indonesian SOEs and a Chinese partner) tasked to the project. Meanwhile, the Chinese counterpart is requesting for a guarantee from the Government. While revenue contribution from the HST project may reach IDR6trn-8trn in 3-4 years, we expect contributions to begin in FY17– if the project goes through.

¨ FY15 results. Earnings of IDR174bn (-47% YoY) were about 9% above our estimate – but 10% below consensus – on lower-than-expected tax expenses, while revenue of IDR2.6trn (-19% YoY) was in line. GPM fell to 12.4% due to the lower utilisation rate early last year.

¨ Improvement in 4Q15. 4Q15 revenue (+68% QoQ, +16% YoY) contributed 42% of total revenue last year – above its normal c.27% contribution due to an increase in projects in the quarter. Meanwhile, NPAT surged >100% QoQ but fell by 18% YoY, due to the lower tax expenses.

¨ Maintain NEUTRAL with a DCF-derived TP of IDR870 (from IDR830) that also implies 31.2x FY16F P/E. Currently, the stock is trading at 33.9x FY16F P/E.
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P H
May 26,2015 14:57:56
PTPP mau break resistance?
Bull
P H
May 21,2015 21:11:30
Our top picks: 5 mass consumption, 3 infrastructure related, 1 bank, and 1 industrial property. Top picks in Indonesia (in alphabetical order) 1 ADHI Adhi Karya 2 BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia 3 BEST Bekasi Fajar 4 GGRM Gudang Garam 5 INDF Indofood Sukses 6 JSMR Jasa Marga 7 KLBF Kalbe Farma 8 PTPP Pemb Perumahan 9 TLKM Telkom Indonesia 10 TELE Tiphone Mobile Indo Source: Maybank Kim Eng
Bull
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise.
PTPP
2,880.00 30.00 (1.05%)
PP (Persero) Tbk.
Last Update 02:54:11