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P H
Sep 12,2017 18:29:14

Plantation – Is The Current CPO Price Strength Sustainable?

Malaysian inventory levels are now at 1.94m tonnes, translating to an annualised stock/usage ratio of 10.3%. This is above the historical average of 9.5%, signalling that stock levels are officially in a surplus. With demand continuing to disappoint, with most of the main markets in negative territory YTD, we do not expect the current strength in CPO prices to persist. This would coincide with an anticipated softening of soybean prices once the initial impact of hurricanes in the US wear off and weather normalises. No change to our UNDERWEIGHT stance on the sector.

  • Malaysia’s CPO production rose 13.6% YoY in YTD-Aug, although August’s output was down by a slight 0.9% MoM from July. We believe production would pick up in the next couple of months, as most planters are expecting peak output to be in September/October. For the whole of 2017, we expect Malaysia’s CPO output growth to moderate to 10-12% YoY. 
     
  • Exports rose by 6.4% MoM in August, bringing YTD exports to a 2% increase YoY. In YTD-Aug, exports saw a rise to Pakistan (+14% YoY) and Philippines (+6%). This was offset by a decline in exports to China (-4% YoY) India (-29%) and the US (- 20.5%), while exports to the EU was flat YoY.
     
  • Inventory rose 8.8% MoM to 1.94m tonnes in August, despite a dip in output. Annualised stock/usage ratio for August is now at 10.3% (up from 9.5% in July), which is now above the 15-year historical average of 9.5%. This means that stock levels are now officially in a surplus situation. We expect to see a continuation of rising inventory levels, as production resumes its recovery during the peak seasonal period. 
     
  • 2Q17 results disappointed, as six companies (IOI Corp, Genting Plantations, TSH Resources, Kuala Lumpur Kepong, IJM Plantations and Felda Global Ventures) reported results that were below expectations. Two (Sime Darby and Sawarak Oil Palms) reported results above expectations, with only CB Industrial Product in line. We continue to see strong YoY FFB output growth in 2Q17, although most companies saw lower QoQ production growth. We observe Indonesia continuing to drive this growth, despite most companies guiding for growth to start moderating in 2H17. In Malaysia, while the growth recovery has not been consistent throughout the country, most companies are guiding for output to pick up more strongly in 2H17, with the peak output slated to be in September/October for Malaysia. Most companies continued to guide for strong double-digit FFB growth in 2017, coming from a low base in 2016. For those with downstream operations, we saw stronger QoQ margins, as feedstock prices fell. Most companies continue to guide for stronger margins at their downstream divisions, as selling prices have risen, while feedstock prices continue to weaken.
     
  • We maintain our UNDERWEIGHT rating on the sector, on the back of a strong output recovery and weak demand dynamics. Catalysts include a positive change to global demand and any extreme weather occurrences that would have an impact on global vegetable oil output. Our Top BUY is Sarawak Oil Palms while our Top SELL is London Sumatra. (Hoe Lee Leng)

$AALI $ANJT $BWPT $DSNG $GOLL $GZCO $LSIP $MAGP $PALM $SGRO $SIMP $SMAR $SSMS $TBLA $UNSP

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P H
Jul 27,2016 08:50:23
EARNINGS CALENDAR (Half Year 2016 - Estimated)

JULY 2016

Jul 25, 2016 :
$BBTN (Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 26, 2016
$BDMN (Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT)
$BMRI (Persero) Tbk PT Earnings Release - 4:00PM GMT+7

Jul 27, 2016
$AALI (Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT)
$HMSP (Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT)
$LPPF (Matahari Department Store Tbk PT)
$MPPA (Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT)
$PTBA (Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 28, 2016
$ASII (Astra International Tbk PT)
$BEST (Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk PT)
$BJBR (PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk)
$DOID (Bloomberg)
$NCO (Vale Indonesia Tbk PT)
$JPFA (Bloomberg)
$PSAB (Bloomberg)
$SSMS (Bloomberg)
$SMGR (Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$UNTR (United Tractors Tbk PT)
$UNVR (Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT)

Jul 29, 2016
$ASRI (Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT)
$ADHI (Bloomberg)
$BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk PT)
$BNGA (Bloomberg)
$BNLI (Bloomberg)
$BNII (Bloomberg)
$BKSL (Bloomberg)
$BHIT (Bloomberg)
$BISI (Bloomberg)
$CPIN (Bloomberg)
$CTRA (Ciputra Development Tbk PT)
$CTRP (Bloomberg)
$ELSA (Bloomberg)
$GIAA (Bloomberg)
$GJTL (Bloomberg)
$GGRM (Gudang Garam Tbk PT)
$NKP (Bloomberg)
$INTP (Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT)
$INDF (Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$ICBP (Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$INDY (Bloomberg)
$KARW (Bloomberg)
$KAEF (Bloomberg)
$KIJA (Bloomberg)
$KLBF (Kalbe Farma Tbk PT)
$KRAS (Bloomberg)
$LPKR (Lippo Karawaci Tbk PT)
$LSIP (Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk PT)
$MAPI (Bloomberg)
$PWON (Bloomberg)
$PNBN, $PNLF, $PNIN (Bloomberg)
$PTPP (Bloomberg)
$RALS (Bloomberg)
$SMRA (Bloomberg)
$TBLA (Bloomberg)
$TLKM (Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$TOTL (Bloomberg)
$WSKT (Bloomberg)

AUGUST 2016
Aug 1, 2016
$HRUM (Harum Energy Tbk PT)
$SSIA (Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT)

Aug 10, 2016
$ITMG (Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk PT)

Aug 12, 2016
$EXCL (XL Axiata Tbk PT)

Aug 29, 2016
$ADRO (Adaro Energy Tbk PT)
$ANTM (Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk PT)
$BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$ISAT (Indosat Tbk PT)
$PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

SEPTEMBER

Sep 13, 2016
$SMCB (Holcim Indonesia)

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P H
Jul 06,2015 13:53:14
Resistance di 2,150 ya

Bull
P H
May 11,2015 12:57:15
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) menguat +0,1% (+3 poin) di level 5184,45 poin pada penutupan perdagangan sesi 1, Senin (11/5). Indeks LQ45 naik +0,15% ke posisi 900. Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) naik +0,27% ke posisi 699 poin. Indeks Kompas 100 naik +0,19% ke level 1.134 poin. IDX30 naik +0,15% ke level 466 poin. Pemodal asing membukukan transaksi net sell (jual bersih) -Rp37 miliar. Transaksi yang tercapai Rp2,136 triliun dengan volume trading sebanyak 5,755 miliar saham. Sektor: Agri +2,07% Mining +1,70% Properti -0,69% Infrastruktur +0,16% Finance +0,04% Trade -0,14% Manufaktur -0,17% Consumer -1,17% Basic ind -0,07% Misc-ind -0,25% Kini sektor agro dan mining menjadi penopang utama laju IHSG pada perdagangan sesi siang awal pekan ini. Saham agri ditunjang oleh naiknya AALI +3,07%. BWPT ++3,75%. DSNG +1,41%. GZCO +1,12%. SIMP +2,34%. SSMS +1,01%. Adapun saham-saham mining yang bergerak naik antara lain: ADRO +5,23%. ANTM +0,63%. ARTI +4,44%. HRUM +2,97%. INCO +1,24%. ITMG +5,51%. Kelompok saham properti bergerak negatif seiring terbitnya Revisi PMK No 90 /PMK.03/2015 tentang pengenaan pajak barang super mewah (PPh 22) untuk properti. Saham-saham properti yang melorot adalah: APLN -1,73%. BSDE -0,28%. CTRA -2,92%. JRPT -7,34%. LPCK -0,90% . LPKR -1,19%. Adapun sektor yang turun paling dalam adalah consumer -1,17%. Koreksi consumer dimotori saham: DVLA -1,11%. KAEF -0,84%. GGRM -0,16%. TSPC -1,67%. ULTJ -2,35%. UNVR -0,06%. Bursa Asia Sentimen kebijan Tiongkok yang memangkas suku bunga menjadi sentimen utama bagi market regional. Bank Sentral Tiongkok (People`s Bank of China (PBOC) menurunkan suku bunga kredit dan deposito bertenor 1 tahun sebesar 25 bps. Indeks Nikkei naik +1,27% (+245,32 poin) ke posisi 19.624,51 poin. Indeks Hang Seng naik +0,50% (+132,29 poin) ke level 27.714,63 poin Indeks Shanghai naik +1,18% (+49,62 poin) ke posisi 4.255,54 poin Indeks Straits Times +0,46% (+15,72 poin) ke level 3.467 poin (pukul 12.00 WIB).
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