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P H
Jun 06,2016 09:12:13
TAXI : Penumpang Tembus 30 Juta, Pendapatan Express Group (TAXI) Naik 9%

PT Express Transindo Utama, Tbk (Express Group) mengumumkan kinerja perseroan yang meningkat sepanjang 2015 berdasarkan Laporan Keuangan Konsolidasi.

Pada 2015, Express Group mencatat pendapatan sebesar Rp970 miliar, naik 9% dibandingkan dengan pendapatan tahun sebelumnya.

Perseroan membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp32 miliar, sementara nilai asset perusahaan per 31 Desember 2015 tercatat sebesar Rp2,884 triliun dan EBITDA mencapai Rp514 miliar.

$TAXI

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P H
Apr 18,2016 09:00:02
Blue Bird: Look Beyond The Near-Term Speed Bump
 
We maintain our BUY call on Blue Bird with a revised IDR7,500 TP (from IDR8,500, 29% upside) given its potential earnings improvement from higher average daily revenue and improved utilisation rates. We foresee the short- to medium term overhang from online ride operators to continue haunting conventional taxis. It is not likely to be set in stone, as we believe the 33% price discount price vis-à-vis conventional taxis would not be permanent. Thus, we lower our FY16-17F earnings by 11-15% respectively due to such circumstances.

¨ The Government’s two options. The Transportation Ministry has provided two options for ride-sharing application (app) operators, namely to be a transport operator or an app provider. If the online operators opt to be transportation operators, then the app players must have a public transport operating license. This means that such fleets should be metered. If they opt to be an app provider, the online ride operators should cooperate with official transportation companies or cooperatives that are already registered. We foresee that the online ride operators would probably choose option two as it is not likely to give a positive impact to the domestic taxi industry in the short to medium term. This is because unequal pricing still exists.

¨ Short- to medium-term overhang remains. In our opinion, the current euphoria over online ride apps should not last over the longer period. Customers are currently interested to use the online ride apps due to their promotional packages. We foresee the steep discounts from the online ride operators (33% when compared to conventional taxis) would not be permanent. As we have seen in other Asian countries, the tariffs were gradually adjusted.

¨ 4Q15 results slightly below our estimate. Blue Bird reported a IDR5.47trn revenue (+15% YoY), ie in line with our IDR5.49trn estimate. Topline was supported by higher average daily revenue in FY15 of IDR633,000 (+7% YoY). Meanwhile, FY15 utilisation rates were relatively flat at 74.3% (FY14: 74.8%). However, its earnings came in at IDR824bn (+12% YoY), ie slightly below our IDR872bn estimate, or 94.4% of our forecast. Earnings were dragged by the lower gains from the sale of property, plant and equipment (PPE) by 40% YoY, which was due to the softening condition in the second-hand car market.

¨ Maintain BUY. We lower our earnings estimates by 11-15% in FY16-17 respectively due to the short-term headwind from the online ride operators – the unequal price remains. We maintain our BUY call with a lower IDR7,500 (from IDR8,500) on Blue Bird given its potential earnings growth from higher average daily revenue and improvement in utilisation rates, strong brand equity, healthy balance sheet, high ROEs vs peers, and standardised quality of services and infrastructure.

$BIRD $TAXI
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P H
Mar 21,2016 11:17:46
Transportation: Clock Is Ticking For Online Ride Applications

Though the Government does not ban the use of online ride applications (apps), we believe the threat they pose to conventional taxis is exaggerated. Based on our interview with Uber drivers, we find their monthly income has declined, due to the phasing out of incentives. Our findings indicate that the key reason for the drivers to use online ride apps was the incentives. We also foresee that online ride apps’ cheaper tariff will not be permanent, as we have seen in other countries, where the tariff gets adjusted gradually to be on par with that of the conventional system.

¨ Maintain OVERWEIGHT rating on Transportation. Whether the Government decides to ban their use or not, in our opinion, the threat from online ride apps has been exaggerated. We believe the euphoria over their use has so far been based on the current promotional period, and once this ends, online ride app market share may likely decline. We maintain our BUY call on Blue Bird given its: i) potential earnings growth from higher average daily revenue and utilisation rates, ii) strong brand equity, iii) healthy balance sheet, iv) high ROE vs peers, and v) a standardised quality of services and infrastructure.

¨ Waiting for the Government’s decision on online ride apps to see how they will be regulated. As the legal status of online ride apps is still debatable, we built our scenario analysis assuming either a ban on online ride apps, or no ban. In the first scenario, we think that there will be an overhang over the short to medium term – not for the long term, because we think Uber’s steep 33% discount to standard taxi tariffs will not permanent. As we have seen in other countries’ experiences, the tariff then gets gradually adjusted to be on par with that of conventional taxis. Furthermore, we think the lower incentives to drivers could become an issue as well. In the second scenario, we foresee a direct positive impact on the taxi industry, especially for Blue Bird ($BIRD), as we will discuss later. The second scenario would not have a significant impact on Express Transindo Utama (Express Transindo) ($TAXI) as the company has a high gearing level and would need to reduce it before expanding their fleet, in our view.

¨ Uber drivers impart that their monthly income declined. The incentives are the key tools from online ride apps to attract and motivate the drivers. Based on our interviews with Uber drivers, we found out that the incentives from Uber make up a huge portion of their earnings. Without these incentives, we foresee a deterioration in drivers’ earnings and it could make the driver quit. Some of the drivers that we interviewed mention that their monthly income has declined, due to the expiry of the incentives.

¨ Conventional taxi system likely to remain drivers’ preferred option. For those depending on driving a taxi as their primary source of income, we think that the conventional taxi system providesmore stable and higher earnings compared with using online ride apps (without incentives). Based on our ground check, we discovered that some drivers who use online ride apps as a source of income use them as a second job or for an additional source of income. The earnings of online ride apps drivers are very dependent on the incentives given from the companies, which showed a declining trend since last year.
Bear
P H
Mar 16,2016 09:39:31
Sebanyak 3000 taxi Express ($TAXI) sudah tidak beroperasi sejak satu tahun lalu, akibat kompetisi tidak sehat dari “taxi” online. Dan sekitar 6.000 supir pun kehilangan pekerjaannya akibat tak bisa memenuhi target pendapatan per hari. Demikian dikatakan oleh Direktur Taksi Express, Shafruhan Sinungan.

Kemarin pemerintah lewat MenKeu dan Menkominfo sepakat untuk memblokir aplikasi taxi online.

$TAXI $BIRD
Bear
P H
Feb 28,2016 12:11:08
Blue Bird ($BIRD)
Counterattack Strategy From Blue Bird


Maintain BUY and IDR8,500 TP (47% upside) on Blue Bird’s potential earnings growth from improving utilisation rates. As FY15 growth slowed amid an economic slowdown and a slight impact from online ride apps, Blue Bird aims to scale back its expansion plan and focus on improving utilisation rates this year. It has also launched a new mobile app to compete with online ride apps. We expect FY16F margin expansion to be limited as lower fuel cost would be slightly offset by other costs (ie daily fixed commission).

? Blue Bird’s response to challenge from online ride applicatons (apps). Blue Bird has upgraded its mobile app to be similar with Uber’s. The new features are more user-friendly (with credit card payment, e-voucher and more accurate maps) and the company may look into the possibility of promotional pricing. In order to compete in an unequal war with online ride apps, Blue Bird plans to introduce new strategies like loyalty cards to offer promotional packages to its customers.

? Competitive pressure may wane over time. With online ride companies like Uber, Grab Taxi and Gojek cutting their drivers’ incentives for profitability, we foresee more ex-taxi drivers who were previously attracted by incentives from online ride companies to rejoin Blue Bird. This has been reflected in the company’s improving utilisation rates since 2H15. According to CFO Robert Rerimassie, Blue Bird’s average blended utilisation rate in FY15 was 74.3% (in line with our 74.3% estimate). For FY16, the company expects to ramp up its utilisation rate to around 77-78% (our estimate: 75.3%).

? Softened spending and competition a double blow in FY15. Mr Robert cited two reasons for the slowdown in the taxi business in FY15: i) softened purchasing power, and ii) competition from online ride applications.

? Blue Bird scaled back its expansion in FY15 and would continue to do so in FY16 (target of adding 1,700-2,000 taxis). While this is largely in response to a slowing economy, Mr Robert mentioned that there is also some impact from online ride apps. In FY16, Blue Bird would focus on maintaining its market share in the taxi industry as well as its utilisation rates.

? We maintain our BUY call and DCF-derived IDR8,500 TP (WACC: 11.3%, TG: 3%) on Blue Bird on the back of: i) its potential earnings growth from an improvement in utilisation rates and average daily revenue, ii) high market share in the industry, iii) healthy balance sheet, and iv) high ROE compared to its local and regional peers’.

$BIRD $TAXI
Bear
A MD
Aug 13,2015 08:54:09
($BBCA) menurun semua
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P H
Aug 12,2015 20:37:40
Indonesian Transportation: In a jam

Threats from private-car taxis and … : On the back of new transportation mobile application services, the Indonesian taxi business is facing a plethora of challenges ahead in the form of fewer drivers available and weaker customer demands (exhibit 5). Based on our study, UBER’s normal tariff, with no traffic jam, is around a third cheaper than taxi fares (exhibit 10). Additionally, these new competitors are here to stay as the transportation ministry has granted temporary operational licenses, while the government is still drafting new regulations for e-commerce business. UBER, operating in 57 countries (exhibit 9), commenced its Indonesian operations in mid-2014 focusing on Jakarta. Now it has around 700 operating units in Jakarta with expansions to Bali and Bandung. UBER collaborates with rental companies in Indonesia and taps into their under-utilized cars for its operations. Normally, UBER collects a 20% service fee on all passenger payments with the rest going to drivers, which may be split with owners of car rental companies in some cases.

… motorcycle-taxi mobile services: On the motorcycle-taxi front, we expect new applications to gain government support, especially in Jakarta, as they may help reduce the number of cars on the streets and ease traffic jams. Go-Jek, an Indonesia-based local mobile application, has experienced phenomenal growth (exhibit 14) due to high consumer demand for its services (exhibit 13), and is now supported by around 14k drivers in Jakarta. In fact, our channel checks reveal that many taxi drivers have migrated to become Go-Jek drivers due to its flexi hours and up to 50% higher incomes for drivers (exhibit 10). A Go-Jek driver can generate a net income of around IDR5-7mn/month, assuming 25 working days and a daily income of around IDR200k-IDR280k. On the contrary, a taxi driver may only earn a monthly income of around IDR2.7mn-IDR3.5mn, based on our market survey. Hence, Go-Jek is extremely popular, forcing the company to limit the number of driver applications to 300 drivers per day due to the high interest from potential joiners. We believe this concept has a great deal of potential going forward, as Jakarta’s Governor, Ahok, is supportive of this service, which he sees as aligned with his vision of making Jakarta a smart-city with less traffic congestion. We think that this application is attractive to low-to-middle-income people as a “business-partnership”, charging only 20% of total revenue as service fees, with simple requirements to join (exhibit 12).

Reiterate sector UNDERWEIGHT, cutting all TPs
The threat from these mobile services is worse for Blue Bird ( $BIRD ) than Express Transindo Utama ( $TAXI ) as BIRD’s revenues are 100% based on its drivers’ incomes, which would decline as UBER and Go-Jek enter the fray. As we also expect fewer drivers to be available, we forecast lower utilization rates ahead, causing earnings downgrades (exhibits 6 and 7). We lower our TPs for BIRD to IDR5,500 (from IDR7,400) and TAXI to IDR520 (from IDR820). Thus, we retain our UNDERWEIGHT sector rating with unchanged REDUCE ratings for BIRD and TAXI, despite their severe market underperformances ytd (exhibit 4). For Adi Sarana Armada ( $ASSA ), we trim our 2016F earnings (exhibit 8) as we expect more difficult operating conditions, resulting also in a lower TP of IDR140 (from IDR150). However, we retain our BUY rating on ASSA due to the cheap PE valuation of 6x for 2016F and 18% upside potential to our new TP.
Bear
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise.
TAXI
61.00 2.00 (3.17%)
Express Transindo Utama Tbk.
Last Update 09:09:12