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Sep 12,2017 18:29:14

Plantation – Is The Current CPO Price Strength Sustainable?

Malaysian inventory levels are now at 1.94m tonnes, translating to an annualised stock/usage ratio of 10.3%. This is above the historical average of 9.5%, signalling that stock levels are officially in a surplus. With demand continuing to disappoint, with most of the main markets in negative territory YTD, we do not expect the current strength in CPO prices to persist. This would coincide with an anticipated softening of soybean prices once the initial impact of hurricanes in the US wear off and weather normalises. No change to our UNDERWEIGHT stance on the sector.

  • Malaysia’s CPO production rose 13.6% YoY in YTD-Aug, although August’s output was down by a slight 0.9% MoM from July. We believe production would pick up in the next couple of months, as most planters are expecting peak output to be in September/October. For the whole of 2017, we expect Malaysia’s CPO output growth to moderate to 10-12% YoY. 
  • Exports rose by 6.4% MoM in August, bringing YTD exports to a 2% increase YoY. In YTD-Aug, exports saw a rise to Pakistan (+14% YoY) and Philippines (+6%). This was offset by a decline in exports to China (-4% YoY) India (-29%) and the US (- 20.5%), while exports to the EU was flat YoY.
  • Inventory rose 8.8% MoM to 1.94m tonnes in August, despite a dip in output. Annualised stock/usage ratio for August is now at 10.3% (up from 9.5% in July), which is now above the 15-year historical average of 9.5%. This means that stock levels are now officially in a surplus situation. We expect to see a continuation of rising inventory levels, as production resumes its recovery during the peak seasonal period. 
  • 2Q17 results disappointed, as six companies (IOI Corp, Genting Plantations, TSH Resources, Kuala Lumpur Kepong, IJM Plantations and Felda Global Ventures) reported results that were below expectations. Two (Sime Darby and Sawarak Oil Palms) reported results above expectations, with only CB Industrial Product in line. We continue to see strong YoY FFB output growth in 2Q17, although most companies saw lower QoQ production growth. We observe Indonesia continuing to drive this growth, despite most companies guiding for growth to start moderating in 2H17. In Malaysia, while the growth recovery has not been consistent throughout the country, most companies are guiding for output to pick up more strongly in 2H17, with the peak output slated to be in September/October for Malaysia. Most companies continued to guide for strong double-digit FFB growth in 2017, coming from a low base in 2016. For those with downstream operations, we saw stronger QoQ margins, as feedstock prices fell. Most companies continue to guide for stronger margins at their downstream divisions, as selling prices have risen, while feedstock prices continue to weaken.
  • We maintain our UNDERWEIGHT rating on the sector, on the back of a strong output recovery and weak demand dynamics. Catalysts include a positive change to global demand and any extreme weather occurrences that would have an impact on global vegetable oil output. Our Top BUY is Sarawak Oil Palms while our Top SELL is London Sumatra. (Hoe Lee Leng)


Feb 22,2017 11:24:39

Indonesia market update: Here comes the rain
Ahok, floods & stocks

Bad news for Ahok in the lead-up to the Jakarta Governor race: In spite of efforts by Jakarta’s governor, Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama, to prepare for and prevent flooding, 54 areas around the capital were paralyzed as water prevented travel (exhibit 3-4) given the water depth of up to two and a half meters in some places on the back of around 180mm rain intensity (2016: 157mm) in the past 24 hours. The weather bureau (BMKG) predicts the peak intensity of La Nina to stay until March 2017.  
2nd round Jakarta Governor campaign has started early: Dressed in a red parka (exhibit 2), Anies, Ahok’s competitor in the final round of the Jakarta Governor race, has managed to capitalize on the floods to raise his popularity ahead of the planned campaign scheduled for 6-15 April 2017.

Demonstration still took place despite flooding: The Jakarta floods did not deter an estimated 10,000 protestors (although much lower than the 100k participants previously forecast) from turning up in front of the parliament (exhibit 1), asking the government to remove Ahok from his Governor post. The rally was reportedly headed by Muslim forum FUI.    

Positively affected stocks: While all distribution channels are adversely affected by the floods, we believe there are sectors and stocks that could perform better than others under these conditions. Siloam Hospitals ($SILO) should see increased traffic as people get sick while the pharmaceutical sector is also likely to see some uptick from higher purchases of medicine to treat wide-ranging illnesses such as flu and skin diseases, benefiting Kalbe ($KLBF) and Sido Muncul ($SIDO). Additionally, during floodings, households and evacuation centers typically stock up on staple foods such as noodles, which would benefit Indofood Consumer Branded Products ($ICBP). During these times, smokers also have the propensity to smoke more, so we could see increased stick sales for Sampoerna ($HMSP). Within the commodities space, assuming continued downpours at Sumatra’s plantation estates, higher CPO prices might occur due to decreased output. This would benefit our favored plantation plays: Eagle High ($BWPT) and Tunas Baru ($TBLA).  

Adversely affected stocks: With the rains, cement, construction and coal companies could face operational delays. We also expect bread maker Nippon Indosari ($ROTI) to suffer (c.70% of sales in Greater Jakarta), as spoilage may be an issue due to the fresh nature of its products. Retailers could also be affected by the reduced traffic, particularly Ramayana ($RALS) whose low-end target customers lack cars for commuting. Traffic jams caused by flooding should spell bad news for transportation, adversely affecting both Blue Bird ($BIRD) and Express ($TAXI), as well as Garuda Indonesia ($GIAA), as flights may be delayed or cancelled.   

Nov 15,2016 23:54:41

$TBLA eyeing +30% YoY profit in 2017F 

With its sugar mill in Lampung expected to be up and running by YE16, Tunas Baru Lampung estimated 2017 total revenue and net profit to grow by +20% and +30% YoY, respectively. The new mill is estimated to run at 70-80% of its 8,000tonnes/day production capacity in its first operating year in 2017.

Nov 15,2016 22:33:44

Tunas Baru Lampung ($TBLA): Target laba bersih naik 30% YoY menjadi IDR780b tahun depan.

• Dikutip dari kontan, Manajemen Tunas Baru Lampung ($TBLA) optimistis menghadapi bisnis tahun depan.

$TBLA memproyeksikan penjualan selama 2017 tumbuh 20% YoY menjadi IDR7.5t. Adapun laba bersihnya ditagetkan naik 30% YoY menjadi IDR780b.

• Tahun ini, manajemen target penjualan tumbuh 13% YoY menjadi IDR6t, sementara laba bersihnya melonjak 205% YoY menjadi IDR600miliar.

Comment: Target laba bersih oleh manajemen di tahun ini dan tahun depan, dibawah perkiraan Maybank KE yaitu di IDR680miliar, dan IDR896milar.

Nov 14,2016 17:09:32

Indonesia: Currency update: IDR depreciation: Don’t panic
Effects of a shallow FX market; Buying opportunities exist
Based on Bank Indonesia’s data, ytd the average daily turnover for the IDR spot market is only USD1.7bn, which is shallow by regional standards, reflecting just 0.5x of GDP (exhibit 1), one of the lowest among its regional peers. Even worse is the 1M NDF market, which only trades at USD0.7bn a day ytd. Unfortunately, the NDF sometimes can influence the spot market, particularly on pressure stemming from the recent Trump election. However, given such illiquidity, we advise investors to remain calm, particularly as we believe the fundamentals in Indonesia remain largely unchanged. We note that, through years of balance sheet repair since the 1998 Financial Crisis, the Indonesian stock market’s net gearing has improved from more than 150% back then to 27.3% in 9M16. Furthermore, we believe Indonesia is currently in a good position given that its 3Q16 CAD of 1.86% is the lowest since 1Q12. In fact, we think the current situation presents buying opportunities for investors as we expect the IDR to become stronger by year-end. It is worth pointing out that there should still be around USD10bn to come in from tax amnesty repatriation between now and the end of 2016.

Sensitivity analysis: 1% weaker IDR = 0.9% market EPS
Given recent IDR gyrations, we present our latest currency sensitivity analysis on the IDR/1USD, in an effort to aid investors in better gauging their investments in Indonesia. Our study, based on 87 non-financial stocks under our coverage (62% of total JCI market capitalization), shows that each 1% IDR depreciation could lower the EPS of our covered stocks by 0.9% overall (exhibit 5). That said, it is not a surprise that a recent 3% negative swing in the NDF market spooked investors, as it could translate into a 3.6% wipeout in 2017 market EPS growth.  

Winners: Coal, Metals, Oil & Gas and Plantations

A stronger dollar should in general spell good news for sectors with dollar revenue such as Coal, Metals and Oil & Gas and Plantations (exhibit 5). By stock, our sensitivity analysis indicates that $SIMP, $WINS, $TBLA, $PTBA and $SGRO should be the major beneficiaries of IDR deprecation within our basket of stocks (exhibit 2).

Losers: Poultry, Property and Consumer Discretionary
Against a backdrop of a weaker IDR, sectors with large USD costs and borrowings should suffer: Poultry, Property and Consumer Discretionary (exhibit 5). Stock-wise, losers of a stronger dollar include heavily leveraged companies under our coverage: $SMCB, $LPKR and $MAPI (exhibit 3).

Safe havens: Mainly Construction and Telcos  

For investors seeking shelter from currency volatility, we point to the Construction and Telco sectors (exhibit 10 & 24). In terms of stocks, $JSMR, $SCMA, $SIDO and $WSKT (exhibit 4) should have their earnings relatively least altered by FX swings.

Jul 27,2016 08:50:24
EARNINGS CALENDAR (Half Year 2016 - Estimated)

JULY 2016

Jul 25, 2016 :
$BBTN (Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 26, 2016
$BDMN (Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT)
$BMRI (Persero) Tbk PT Earnings Release - 4:00PM GMT+7

Jul 27, 2016
$AALI (Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT)
$HMSP (Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT)
$LPPF (Matahari Department Store Tbk PT)
$MPPA (Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT)
$PTBA (Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 28, 2016
$ASII (Astra International Tbk PT)
$BEST (Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk PT)
$BJBR (PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk)
$DOID (Bloomberg)
$NCO (Vale Indonesia Tbk PT)
$JPFA (Bloomberg)
$PSAB (Bloomberg)
$SSMS (Bloomberg)
$SMGR (Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$UNTR (United Tractors Tbk PT)
$UNVR (Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT)

Jul 29, 2016
$ASRI (Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT)
$ADHI (Bloomberg)
$BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk PT)
$BNGA (Bloomberg)
$BNLI (Bloomberg)
$BNII (Bloomberg)
$BKSL (Bloomberg)
$BHIT (Bloomberg)
$BISI (Bloomberg)
$CPIN (Bloomberg)
$CTRA (Ciputra Development Tbk PT)
$CTRP (Bloomberg)
$ELSA (Bloomberg)
$GIAA (Bloomberg)
$GJTL (Bloomberg)
$GGRM (Gudang Garam Tbk PT)
$NKP (Bloomberg)
$INTP (Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT)
$INDF (Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$ICBP (Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$INDY (Bloomberg)
$KARW (Bloomberg)
$KAEF (Bloomberg)
$KIJA (Bloomberg)
$KLBF (Kalbe Farma Tbk PT)
$KRAS (Bloomberg)
$LPKR (Lippo Karawaci Tbk PT)
$LSIP (Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk PT)
$MAPI (Bloomberg)
$PWON (Bloomberg)
$PNBN, $PNLF, $PNIN (Bloomberg)
$PTPP (Bloomberg)
$RALS (Bloomberg)
$SMRA (Bloomberg)
$TBLA (Bloomberg)
$TLKM (Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$TOTL (Bloomberg)
$WSKT (Bloomberg)

Aug 1, 2016
$HRUM (Harum Energy Tbk PT)
$SSIA (Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT)

Aug 10, 2016
$ITMG (Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk PT)

Aug 12, 2016
$EXCL (XL Axiata Tbk PT)

Aug 29, 2016
$ADRO (Adaro Energy Tbk PT)
$ANTM (Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk PT)
$BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$ISAT (Indosat Tbk PT)
$PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)


Sep 13, 2016
$SMCB (Holcim Indonesia)

Apr 01,2016 10:13:50
CPO: WHY $TBLA: PT Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk

1. Didirikan pada tahun 1973, PT Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk (“TBLA”) menjadi salah satu anggota dari Sungai Budi Group, salah satu perintis industri pertanian di Indonesia yang didirikan pada tahun 1947.

Rentang produk TBLA adalah :
Minyak Goreng Sawit (PCA) / OLEIN
· Sabun (Cuci, Mandi, dan Krim)
· Minyak Inti Sawit (PKO)
· Minyak Kelapa Sawit (CPO)
· Stearin
· Palm Fatty Acid Distillate (PFAD)
· Sawit dan Copra Chips / Expeller dan Pelet
· Gula

2. TBLA sedang mempersiapkan diversifikasi bisnis guna menetralisir tekanan tersebut. Caranya, dengan menggenjot produksi gula.
Keputusan TBLA memperbanyak produksi gula dari tebu merupakan langkah bisnis yang positif. Pasalnya, gula memiliki keunggulan ketimbang sawit, yakni rentang waktu panennya lebih singkat yakni kurang dari empat tahun.

3.TBLA sedang mengerjakan pabrik pengolahan gula senilai US$ 100 juta. Pabrik ini memiliki kapasitas produksi 1,2 juta ton per tahun dan ditargetkan dapat mulai beroperasi Desember 2016.
Jika pabrik ini beroperasi, kontribusinya nanti bisa lebih besar, 30% hingga 40%. Apalagi harga gula dalam tren naik karena pemerintah tengah membatasi impor gula. Ini menjadi sentimen positif bagi komoditas ini.

4.Mandatori pencampuran biodiesel dalam bahan bakar minyak (BBM) juga menarik minat TBLA untuk terjun ke bisnis biodiesel.
TBLA sudah mengantongi restu dari pemegang saham untuk mengembangkan sayap ekspansinya.
Untuk memproduksi biodiesel, TBLA saat ini sedang membangun pabrik baru di Lampung. Perusahaan menargetkan pabrik beroperasi semester I-2016.
Bila bisnis energi biodiesel ini berjalan, maka laba per saham perseroan diproyeksikan akan naik dari Rp126 menjadi Rp139 pada tahun 2016 dan diperkirakan pada tahun 2020 akan menjadi Rp342.

5. Selain pabrik biodiesel, saat ini TBLA sedang menyelesaikan pembangunan dua pabrik yang diproyeksikan akan rampung tahun ini.
Pertama, pabrik kelapa sawit (PKS) berkapasitas 90 ton crude palm oil (CPO) per hari di Bengkulu. Saat ini perusahaan sudah mengoperasikan lima PKS dengan kapasitas total 525 ton per hari.
Kedua, sugar mill di Lampung berkapasitas 8.000 ton cannes per day (TCD). Sebelumnya, perusahaan sudah punya pabrik gula rafinasi berkapasitas 600 ton per hari.

6. Ekspansi TBLA bukan hanya di hilir. Perusahaan juga menargetkan luas kebun kelapa sawitnya bertambah 3.000 ha - 4.000 ha setiap tahun.
Saat ini TBLA memiliki landbank kurang lebih seluas 80.000 ha. Seluas 60.000 ha di antaranya sudah tertanam, terdiri dari kebun inti 48.000 ha dan plasma 12.000 ha.

7.Lebih lanjut, guna meningkatkan permodalan perusahaan, TBLA berencana untuk merevaluasi aset yang sekaligus bisa mendpatkan insentif pajak penghasilan (PPh) Final sebesar 3%. TBLA sudah berpuluh-puluh tahun tidak melakukan revaluasi aset. Sekarang semuanya masih dihitung. Aset TBLA banyak di tanah dan pabrik. Aksi ini diharapkan berdampak terhadap penurunan debt equity ratio (DER) menjadi 1 kali, dibandingkan saat ini sebesar 1,3 kali.
Jun 12,2015 00:52:57

TBLA : Cash Dividend

CumDate: Friday, 12 June 2015

Jadwal Pelaksanaan Pembagian dividen tunai atas saham Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk, PT (TBLA)
Dengan ini kami beritahukan bahwa Emiten diatas bermaksud untuk melakukan pembagian dividen tunai dengan rasio dividen tunai adalah setiap 1 (satu) saham akan memperoleh Rp. 15
Adapun jadwal pembagian dividen tunai adalah sebagai berikut :

  • Tanggal perdagangan bursa yang memuat dividen tunai (Cum Dividen) di Pasar Reguler dan Pasar Negosiasi : 12 Jun 15

  • Tanggal perdagangan bursa tidak memuat dividen tunai (Ex Dividen) di Pasar Reguler dan Pasar Negosiasi : 15 Jun 15

  • Tanggal perdagangan bursa yang memuat dividen tunai (Cum Dividen) di Pasar Tunai : 17 Jun 15

  • Tanggal perdagangan bursa tidak memuat dividen tunai (Ex Dividen) di Pasar Tunai : 18 Jun 15

  • Tanggal Penentuan Pemegang Saham yang berhak mendapat dividen tunai di dalam rekening Efek (Recording Date): 17 Jun 15

  • Tanggal Pembayaran dividen tunai : 26 Jun 15

Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise.
1,385.00 10.00 (0.72%)
Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk.
Last Update 02:54:11