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Dec 06,2016 15:12:56

Retail: Apple to invest IDR1.1tn in Indonesia

The TKDN regulation, which stipulates 30% of 4G phones be made in Indonesia, has not been particularly successful in attracting foreign investment. Nonetheless, Apple has stated that the company is interested in investing to the tune of IDR1.1tn to open a research and development center. 40% of the investment must be achieved in the first year and 100% in 3 years to fully comply with the TKDN regulation before the company could start selling 4G smartphones. Note that Blackberry has worked with Tiphone Mobile Indonesia ($TELE) to manufacture and distribute Blackberry handsets under PT Blackberry Merah Putih. (kontan)


Nov 08,2016 19:04:44

Foxconn to start selling Luna phone in Indonesia

Foxconn Technology Group, Taiwanese-based electronics manufacturing company, will soon selling its new smart-phone in Indonesia under Luna brand in early Nov’16 and targeting the middle class people (41.1% of total phone market). Until end of 2016 the company is optimist to sell 30k units, while the long term target is to grab 5% market share in Indonesia premium smart-phone segment. The phone is produced locally in Semarang.


Jun 15,2016 10:05:47
2 Options for 4G local content regulations – The Ministry of industries has come up with 2 schemes for handset vendors to comply with the 30% local content regulations. 4G handset vendors are given the choice to comply with 30% local content regulation through 100% hardware or 100% software scheme. The latter is only applicable for premium handset products with CIF value above USD600 or equivalent to ~IDR8m. The 2 proposed schemes are final and currently the Ministry of Industries is developing the technical aspect of the regulation.


Jun 07,2016 12:26:34

•PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI : Pemerintah memberi sinyal penurunan asumsi laju produk domestik bruto dari usulan RAPBNP 2016 sebesar 5,3% menjadi 5,1%-5,2%. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

•REGULASI IMPOR PONSEL & KOMPUTER : Per 1 Juli, Importir Produsen Wajib Investasi
Mulai 1 Juli 2016, impor telepon seluler, komputer genggam (handheld), dan komputer tablet khususnya untuk perangkat yang berada dalam jaringan 4G LTE oleh importir produsen wajib menyertakan bukti investasi di dalam negeri. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

•INDUSTRI PAKAN TERNAK : Jagung Ditekan, Impor Gandum Melonjak, Pengetatan impor jagung berimbas pada meningkatnya impor gandum untuk pakan ternak. Penurunan impor jagung juga telah menyebabkan penyerapan komoditas itu dari petani lokal naik cukup signifikan. (BISNIS INDONESIA) Comment : good for BISI

•TAMBAHAN MODAL BUMN : PMN Cair, Rencana penerbitan saham baru oleh BUMN kembali mencuat setelah pemerintah mengusulkan Penyertaan Modal Negara (PMN) dalam Rancangan APBN Perubahan 2016 kepada DPR. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

•WTON : Perusahaan beton pracetak PT Wijaya Karya Beton Tbk. sudah mengantongi proyek infrastruktur HSR Jakarta-Bandung dan menggenggam total nilai kontrak baru hingga Rp1,3 triliun. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

•RI MASUK LIMA BESAR DUNIA - Ledakan Besar di Ritel : Lompatan peringkat Indonesia, dari 12 menjadi 5, dalam Global Retail Development Index (GRDI) 2016 kian mengonfirmasi terjadinya booming sektor ritel di Tanah Air. (BISNIS INDONESIA) Comment : Good For ACES, RANC

•STOK CPO MENURUN : Ramadan Kerek Harga CPO, Persediaan minyak kelapa sawit di Malaysia, sebagai produsen kedua terbesar di dunia, diprediksi menyusut ke level terendah dalam dua tahun terakhir. Harga pun berpeluang mencapai level 2.900 ringgit per ton pada bulan ini. (BISNIS INDONESIA) Good For LSIP, AALI

•TLKM : PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk mengaku sudah meraih pendapatan sekitar Rp 15 triliun dari segmen High End Market yang dikelola Enterprise Customer Facing Unit (CFU). (INDO TELKO)

•BBRI- BMRI : Bank BRI (Persero) Tbk dan Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk berkomitmen membiayai permodalan bagi distributor minyak pelumas buatan PT Pertamina Lubricants. (KOMPAS)

•BMRI : Bank Mandiri’s e-money solution provider PT Digital Artha Media (DAM) will sign partnership agreements with 13 e-commerce companies while Indonesian Agency for Creative Economy (BEKRAF) has joined hands with several venture capital firms to fund the 16 sub-sectors in the creative industry. (DEAL STREET ASIA)

•Harga Nickel Dan Timah
Tin 3M : 16945  +350  +2.11%
Nickel 3M : 8665  +165  +1.94%



May 16,2016 09:07:35
Additions: Garuda Indonesia (GIAA)

Deletions: Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate (BEST) & Tiphone Mobile Indonesia (TELE)

Additions: Waskita Karya Persero (WSKT)
Deletions: Astra Agro Lestari (AALI)


Apr 26,2016 15:51:52
Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA): Mobile Major
-  Beneficiary of industry data growth and strong performance of Taiwan and China brands: During our recent visit to ERAA, we learned that the company's higher 2016 targets with sales of IDR22tn, +10% y-y, and IDR264bn net profit, +16.8% y-y, both up 10% from its initial 2016 guidance, was mainly driven by higher-than-expected 2015 results. Backed by the industry's strong data growth trend, 2015 sales reached IDR20tn, +38.4% y-y (8% higher than our estimate and 21% above consensus), as cellular phone revenue, which contributed 88% of total, jumped 39% y-y to IDR17tn on higher-than-expected sales volumes (106% of our estimate), helped by continued strong growth in brands from Taiwan and China. This note marks a transfer of analyst coverage.

-  Market share expansion on strong bargaining position: Looking ahead, we expect ERAA’s market share expansion in cellular phones, having reached 40% in 2015, up from 32% in 2014, to be well supported. However, we expect a slower pace due to higher base effect and TRIO’s recent debt restructuring. Given favorable strategic partnership with Huawei, we believe its ability to gain market share looks bright with the expected of 8-10% growth of the cellular phone sales in 2016-17F, particularly as ERAA strengthens its bargaining position with brand partners.

-  Higher gross margin on the cards with retail expansion: ERAA plans to continue its retail expansion from 556 outlets in 2015 to 596 outlets in 2016, adding 40 outlets across Indonesia and pushing up retail-to-sales contribution from 34% in 2015 to 36-38% in 2016. In addition, the sell-down of +120-day inventory back in 2015 should help ERAA boost its gross margin from 7.5% last year to 7.7%-7.8% in 2016-17F.

-  Lower interest rate to cushion bottom line: We expect earnings support to stem from lower interest rates, which the management conservatively expect to fall by 25 bps from 10.5% in 2015 to 10.25% in 2016. This is despite the possible additional loans required to refinance working capital. Assuming a 25% effective tax rate and lower interest rates, we forecast 2016-17 net profit margin to increase to 1.2-1.3%.

Outlook: Solid 2016-17F earnings growth of 16-19% EPS growth
Overall, we expect ERAA to maintain its No.1 position in mobile phone distribution in Indonesia. On the top line, we raise our 2016-17F revenues by 10% to IDR21.8tn-23.5tn (exhibit 5). On the cost front, greater retail presence and lower interest charges should result in net profit growth of 16% y-y to IDR262bn in 2016 and 19% y-y to IDR311bn in 2017.

Recommendation: Maintain BUY with TP of IDR850
ERAA is currently trading at a 2016F PE of 8.3x, a 25% discount to regional peers, which we view as attractive (exhibit 7) relative to its growth profile. At this stage, we retain our BUY call and 12M DCF-based TP of IDR850 (2016F PE of 9.5x, around 15% discount to regional peers), although its 3M market outperformance (exhibit 4) translates to just 14% potential upside. Risks to our call include higher working capital capitals.
Mar 20,2016 22:41:32
Tiphone Mobile Indonesia ($TELE): Expanding market share

- Beneficiary of cluster rearrangement: Due to Telkomsel’s cluster re-arrangement in 3Q15, TELE operates in 28 out of 129 total clusters, representing a 25% market share in Telkomsel’s traditional voucher business. We believe this is due to TELE’s extensive presence across the archipelago, with 250k active resellers, as well as its strong performance, as TELE has been named the best Telkomsel distributor for 10 years in a row. As the operator with the largest coverage, Telkomsel receives around 80% of its voucher revenue from the traditional channel. Thus, we think expanding market share in this higher-margin segment is important for TELE’s longer-term growth and profitability.

- Additional banking business to support growth: TELE is expanding into machine-to-machine (M2M) distribution, serving several private banks in voucher transactions using diverse banking platforms. We expect annual sales of around IDR3tn (15% of TELE’s total annual voucher sales) from this deal. Despite lower margins from the M2M channel, we expect the partnership to help TELE diversify its revenue stream and improve revenue sustainability. We expect TELE to have 31% market share in the M2M channel, which contributes 13% of Telkomsel’s voucher revenue.

- GoJek deal to strengthen TELE’s reseller coverage: TELE will partner with GoJek, a bike taxi company with 200k riders in 10 cities, to sell its vouchers through GoJek drivers. The agreement should immediately improve TELE’s sales coverage, providing solid long-term growth, in our view. Additionally, we expect revenue of around IDR700bn/annum from the deal, lower than Telkomsel’s expectation of IDR1.8tn revenue/annum. TELE expects a gross margin of around 3.5% from the deal, similar to the gross margin from the modern channel, e.g., Alfamart, Indomart and Carrefour.

Outlook: Solid telco sector growth to benefit TELE
On a higher market share in Telkomsel’s traditional channel and banking channel, we expect TELE’s 2016 voucher revenue to reach IDR21tn, +45% y-y. Overall, we expect solid growth in the telco sector to support TELE’s performance. On the bottom line, we expect TELE’s 2016 net profit to reach IDR456bn, +23% y-y, before rising 34% y-y to IDR609bn in 2017. We believe that higher working capital is needed to support TELE’s market share expansion. Fortunately, the lower interest rate trend should lower TELE’s interest cost as the company net gearing level increased to 81% in 2015.

Recommendation: BUY and IDR1,180 TP
In line with our OVERWEIGHT rating on the telco sector, we expect sentiment on TELE, supported by its defensive nature, to remain positive at this stage of the market cycle. TELE is a BUY with a DCF-based 12M TP of IDR1,180, reflecting a 2016F PE of 18x. We believe the much higher target PE is justified as we now see TELE as a both a telco and a consumer play, and expect its market outperformance (8% in the last 1 month – exhibit 4) to continue. Risks to our call include higher-than-expected working capital needs and a lower-than-expected operating margin.
Mar 18,2016 20:27:20
Tiphone Mobile Indonesia ($TELE) posted Rp370.4bn (US$26.4m) net profit, (+)19% YoY, and 98% of consensus. The company booked Rp22tn (US$1.7bn) revenue in FY15, (+) 51% YoY, 110% of consensus. The company booked Rp776bn operating profit, (+)43.5% YoY.

Mar 04,2016 09:08:25
Samsung Electronics Indonesia plans to launch 4G smartphone below Rp1m (US$71). Samsung Indonesia marketing director, Vebbyna Kaunang said that the company is following government’s request for vendors, such as preparing local content (TKDN) by 30% and make cheaper version of 4G smartphone.

May 29,2015 10:15:23
TELE: It is a market share gain story...

1. We recently initiated coverage on Tiphone Mobile (TELE). As the largest prepaid mobile phone voucher distributor in Indonesia, we believe it is a play on the rapidly growing mobile data usage and mobile communication becoming a basic need of Indonesians.

2. While it can be regarded as a defensive stock play, we see growth on TELE to be coming from its market share upside in Telkomsel distribution, following Telkom's stake acquisition in TELE last year.

3. We expect TELE to get more business from Telkom. For starters, Telkomsel will soon assign TELE to do its bank distribution (+4% market share). There is also potential for Telkomsel to award more distribution cluster areas by shifting from its less-performing dealers, post its review in September 2015 (up to 10% additional share).

4. We are assuming TELE's Telkomsel market share to go up from the current 20% to 30% in the next three years, translating to 25% earnings CAGR for 2014-17E. This is conservative, compared with the company's target of 35% by 2016. For every additional 1% market share, our sensitivity suggests 3-4% upside to earnings.
May 21,2015 21:11:30
Our top picks: 5 mass consumption, 3 infrastructure related, 1 bank, and 1 industrial property. Top picks in Indonesia (in alphabetical order) 1 ADHI Adhi Karya 2 BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia 3 BEST Bekasi Fajar 4 GGRM Gudang Garam 5 INDF Indofood Sukses 6 JSMR Jasa Marga 7 KLBF Kalbe Farma 8 PTPP Pemb Perumahan 9 TLKM Telkom Indonesia 10 TELE Tiphone Mobile Indo Source: Maybank Kim Eng
Apr 07,2015 18:03:49
$USD bakal naik terus sampai pertengahan tahun. ERAA seperti nya masih bakal tertekan. Begitu juga dengan $TELE dan GLOB