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Jul 10,2018 07:48:46

Indonesia Telco: Pricing is not up in 2Q18, but healthier trends observed vs. 1Q18

We conducted an on-the-ground review of telco tariffs across: 1) traditional channels, and 2) distributors. Our key takeaways are: a) data yields remained down in June vs. May but this is likely due to telco channel stuffing, with June Lebaran actual demand strong especially in rural areas, b) Strong demand is prompting telcos and distributors to raise their ASPs in July, c) starter packs are incrementally deemphasized (vs. reloads) at Telkomsel. Our thesis of a better recovery in 2H18 is starting to take shape; hence, we see 2Q18 as another “wash-out” quarter due to a ‘lost’, subscriber base (see our report “Indo Telco – The State of Play: 1Q18 Wrap up” , 16 May 2018).

All in all, this suggests 2 key findings: a) 2Q18 revenue probably has yet to recover owing to continued data-yield pressure, while subscriber overhang remains due to SIM card deregistration, b) however, the overall trend is definitely getting healthier, especially with market leader Telkomsel since late June deemphasizing high-churn starter packs. This suggests its focus has turned towards lower-churn customers, which is positive for the longer-term tariff trend (ie, it is easier to maintain tariffs in an ecosystem of recharges vs. one of starter packs), and paves the way for trend improvements in 2H18.

Data yield down from average of IDR8k/GB to average of IDR6k/GB in June; but demand was strong during Lebaran. Our research across traditional shops in Jakarta, Jogja, Bandung and Makassar (700+ data points in 3 months) suggests data yields continue to trend lower across different absolute price ranges. Our market research looked at 3 price points i) below IDR25k, ii) IDR25-70k, and iii) above IDR70k. Our key findings are as follows:

1) Data yield overall declined for Telkomsel, EXCL and Fren, while for ISAT, Axis and Tri it is stabilizing-to-rising. In 1Q18 we observe data yields falling sharply to IDR8-10/MB (4Q17: IDR9-14/MB); in 2Q18 our market research suggests a further decline potentially to IDR6-8/MB on a blended basis. A data yield decline is, in our view, natural and we also understand demand (consumption) during Lebaran was especially strong for telco packages, which offsets data the yield decline. Our official view is that tariffs will continue to decline, but at a less rapid pace, which bodes well vs. the 2H17-1H18 rapid-declining tariff season.

2) SmartFren data yield gap significant vs. others. Fren data yield ranges from IDR4k-5.5k/GB or a good 10-20% gap vs. others. Smartfren is the only player we see turning more aggressive in July; we think this is a logical move given Fren’s sparse network and see this is one factor limiting tariff upside continuously. Our meeting with Smartfren suggests they have a peak utilization below 50% (lowest in the sector); indeed the recent OpenSignal June Indonesia report ranks Smartfren’s 4G availability and overall download speed to be the fastest, even above Telkomsel’s. We believe Smartfren’s network does put a cap on overall tariff increases (see next section for more thoughts on Smartfren).

3) Telkomsel likely exited low-priced packages (below IDR25k) in July. This tallies with our market research and we understand it is management’s strategy to shift towards reloads and less churn. We believe this is healthy for the industry, and with the exception of Smartfren, we are indeed seeing less competition in this segment.


Sep 21,2017 09:12:21

Indonesian Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (BRTI) has announced that the upcoming spectrum auction of 2 x 5MHz (2.1GHz band) and 1 x 30MHz (2.3GHz band) will be held in October. Our previous channel check with BRTI officials suggests that the 2.1Ghz band was transacted at about USD40m per 5MHz at the previous auction. Assuming that the price does not change, this implies that the 5MHz and 30MHz blocks would account for approximately 3%/10%/10% and 10%/50%/50% of Telkom, XL and Indosat’s FY17F capex respectively. PT Telkom and XL may bid for both blocks, while Indosat would only bid for one block. A likely scenario of the auction results may be Telkom winning one block, while the remaining block would be won by either XL or Indosat.

Telkom and XL Axiata (XL) have the highest data traffic/spectrum owned and financial muscle. Representatives from Telkom and XL have both indicated that the companies are willing to bid for both blocks, while Indosat would only bid for one block. This is understandable – as Telkom has the biggest balance sheet, its data traffic/spectrum is also the highest in Indonesia. This is followed by XL and Indosat. In terms of flexibility to bid for the blocks, according to their net gearing levels, the descending order would be as follows: Telkom (0.14x), XL (0.6x) and Indosat (1.5x). We also believe Indosat would be the least flexible player, as it may be pressured to raise capex to build base transceiver stations (BTS). It currently has the least BTS, among the top three telco operators. (Norman Choong, CFA)


Jan 23,2017 15:59:43

Sarana Menara Nusantara ($TOWR): Towering above
Telecommunications: Indonesia
-  Inorganic and organic growth to maintain biggest tower status: At this stage, we are of the view that Sarana Menara Nusantara ($TOWR) will maintain its status as Indonesia’s biggest tower operator through both organic and inorganic growth. Currently, TOWR has 24,209 tenants and 14,529 towers (collocation rate 1.67x), slightly higher than its closest peer TBIG with 21,562 tenants and 13,463 towers (collocation: 1.60x). In 9M16, TOWR’s number of towers jumped 19.0% y-y versus TBIG’s growth of 9.5% y-y, helped by the acquisition of 2,500 towers from $EXCL.

-  Strengthening debt structure: TOWR has managed to lower its exposure to foreign currency debt from 59% to 45% (3Q16) and added a greater proportion of IDR debt through its latest bond issuance of IDR800bn (with tenor of 3.5 and 7 years) on 9 November 2016. We believe this will make TOWR’s cost structure more prudent given lower FX risks, although average interest rates jumped from 4.88% in 3Q15 to 6.53% in 3Q16, due to EUR55m and USD190m in debt repayments.

-  Support from operators’ data growth: Data growth of the 3 big operators have continued to accelerate, up 124% y-y in 3Q16 (2Q16: +99% y-y, 1Q16 +84% y-y), providing higher demand for TOWR. On the back of higher data usage (exhibit 8), which requires increased Base Transceiver Stations (BTS), we expect TOWR’s number of tenants to rise from 25,548 in 2016F to 26,568 in 2017F.

Outlook: Bad news mostly in the price
TOWR has severely underperformed the market by more than 40% in the past 12 months (exhibit 4) on less favorable industry outlook as large players such as $ISAT and $EXCL decided to share their capex, causing slower growth outlook. Additionally, we believe $TLKM will focus on its own internal tower projects. That said, we believe most of the bad news has been priced in, although there is still no signs of the operators selling their towers this year.

Recommendation: Reiterate BUY with unchanged TP of IDR5,600
On valuation, we apply a WACC of 9.2% to obtain our DCF-based 12-month TP of IDR5,600, reflecting 60% upside potential. At our TP, TOWR would trade at 13.0x 2017F EV/EBITDA, still at a c.20% discount to the current global average of 16.8x (exhibit 5). Risks to our call would be greater-than-expected competition and slower organic as well as inorganic growth.

Dec 05,2016 14:59:23

TLKM to expand cross-country cable network

Telekomunikasi Indonesia ($TLKM) is planning to expand its submarine-cable network across the country to support international connectivity. Bastian Sembiring, Vice President Wholesale and International Network Services of TLKM, stated that the submarine cable investment requires IDR600m per km and recently TLKM has owned 10 international submarine cable networks, of which all investment sources were own funding. (Kontan)

Nov 30,2016 11:45:13

Indonesia Strategy: Managing Volatility
We opine that Indonesia’s fundamentals remain pointed towards long-term positives. This is underpinned by BI’s pro-growth policies to propel economic growth, the low inflation environment, continued government focus on infrastructure spending, and the security forces’ exemplary conduct in maintaining stability as political tensions rise. Thus, we expect stronger market direction post the Fed’s anticipated rate hike in December.

¨ Outflows dominate. Worries over a potential US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase and weakening IDR have triggered outflows in both the equities and fixed income markets. This is a reversal after months of inflows. Post Donald Trump’s win in the recent US elections, the JCI continues to trade at sub-5,200 level, with outflows recorded at IDR9.6tnin November. Similarly, outflows in the fixed income market have deepened, reaching IDR17trn over the past month, with the 10-year government bond continuing to escalate to 8.3% (August: +6.3%). Arguably, a lack of catalysts in the market have also led to the insipid performances, and we are only expecting stronger market direction post the Fed rate increase that is expected by mid-December.

¨ The three spectres are currency, interest rate trends and politics. As highlighted in our 14 Nov 2016 Currency Woes Dampen Sentiment report, the fundamentals still point towards a resilient IDR. This is underpinned by its high-yield differential vs developed market (DM) economies and peers, relatively high levels of growth among major emerging market (EM) economies, and ongoing reforms. Rising current account deficit (CAD) over the next few years is still manageable, while forex reserve levels also improved to USD115bn.

¨ Action by Bank Indonesia (BI) to intervene in the currency market is plausible to indicate direction. An influx of asset repatriation is also expected towards year-end, which would help the IDR to recuperate to a more favourable level. We opine that BI would maintain its current relaxation bias policy to propel economic growth, especially given the subdued inflationary outlook. As the series of rate cuts have yet to result in a meaningful economic trajectory, it is unlikely that the central bank would take the risk by reversing its current relaxation policy.

¨ Over the past five years, the spread between the BI rate and inflation has averaged 130bps vs the current 145bps spread. This provides room for further relaxation if needed. We expect BI to maintain its current benchmark rate until year-end, and potentially make another 25bps cut in early 2017 to further support economic growth under stable IDR circumstances.

¨ Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama’s alleged religious defamation has raised the political landscape’s temperature, as seen by the magnitude of the anti-Basuki rally that occurred earlier this month. This upheaval is negatively perceived by investors, especially after >2 years of stable politics. The market is likely to take heed of the next rally and, more importantly, how the Government handles the situation. So far, the security forces have been exemplary in restoring stability. We continue to believe that the Government’s position remains strong. As long as these forces remain united under presidential control, any act that destabilises the country can be brought under control quickly.

¨ Commodity plays and blue chips. We like PP London Sumatra (Lonsum) and United Tractors as commodity plays. Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI), Astra International, Ciputra Development, Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD), Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Telkom), Indofood Sukses Makmur and Waskita Karya are all stocks with strong fundamentals. (Helmy Kristanto)


Nov 28,2016 12:26:48

Ministry of SOEs hopes the revision of network sharing regulation will be fair for all operators. Ministry of SOEs Rini Soemarno said that the revision of network sharing regulation in Gov’t regulation No 52/2000 should consider the investments that have been spent by Telkom ($TLKM). Rini said that the gov’t should calculate all the risks and benefits on the revision so that it will not hurt operators that have invested in the network development for years.

Comment:  Considering that the network sharing regulation proposal makes it optional to share, not mandatory, Telkomsel would have the option to share its equipment if it wants to monetize the investments it made. But at the same time, it also does not force Telkomsel to share, if Telkomsel feel the risk from competition is greater than the potential increase in lease rates.


Nov 23,2016 23:02:02

$TLKMTelkom officially launched its 3rd data center service “Telin-3” in Singapore. Telin Singapore CEO Septika Widyasrini said that Telin-3 is a carrier-neutral data center supplier that is connected to domestic fiber optic network owned by Telin Singapore. Telkom also owned 2 data centers (Telin 1 and 2) which are located in Changi and Tai Seng, Singapore.

Comment: Building a data center in SG helps Telkom reduce traffic that goes to the U.S. by caching regularly downloaded data to the data center in SG. A data center in SG may also attract companies to setup mirror site in the region but are not as comfortable to setup such sites in Indonesia.

Nov 14,2016 10:00:51

Strategy: Currency Woes Dampen Sentiment

Sharp correction in JCI (down 4% on Friday) was mainly triggered by precipitous IDR weakening on external factors, while domestic macro improvements remain on track. We believe fundamentals still point to a resilient IDR, especially given Indonesia’s relatively high levels of growth among major EM economies. Consumer, pharmaceutical, poultry and high-end retailers would be at risk of IDR weakening, while commodities and heavy equipment players tend to benefit. High dividend yield stocks also offer protection in the current volatile market. Maintain LT positive view.

¨ Currency volatility is back on. Fears over potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike resulted in IDR falling by up to 3% to IDR13,545/USD onFriday. Considerable IDR weakening could lead to higher production costs and potential cost overruns in certain infrastructure projects, which would lead to higher inflation and growth risks. Strong foreign fund inflows have also increased risks.

¨ Indonesia is still on track for macro improvement, in our view particularly with its rising forex reserve of USD115bn and potential influx of repatriated funds by end-2016. However, the weakening IDR is seen as the main spectre for investors and its occurrence could trigger a market melt-down due to panic selling, shifting focus away from real fundamentals. Thus, BI’s firm response and action would be critical in restoring stability and confidence, in our view. We opine that IDR volatility would still linger before it recovers to IDR13,200/USD by end-2016.

¨ Stronger fundamentals now. There have been several episodes of high IDR volatility, with the last one occurring during 2014-15, when IDR depreciated as much as 30% and JCI suffered 13% losses. In our view, the current situation is different especially given the positive macro environment, in contrast to the subdued economic situation during 2014-15,on BI’s tightening rate policy bias.

¨ BI is already in the market to stabilise the currency given considerable depreciation in IDR, and we view this intervention as plausible to show direction. Current account deficit also remains manageable at 2.1% in 9M16 (3Q16: 1.8%) vs peak of 4.3% in 2014.We expect IDR to weaken slightly to 13,600/USD by 3Q17 on the back of larger current account deficit and potential Fed rate hike.

¨ Resilient IDR. In summary, we opine that fundamentals point to a resilient IDR, underpinned by high yield differentials vs developed market (DM) economies and peers, relatively high levels of growth among major emerging market (EM) economies, and ongoing reforms. Domestic consumption and government-led infrastructure spending also continue to serve as supporting factors for economic growth improvements and we still expect the economy to grow at 5.3% in 2017.

¨ Impact of weakening IDR. IDR weakening would impact corporate earnings through operational currency mismatch and/or forex debt translation. Consumer, pharmaceutical, poultry and high-end retailers have high importation costs and would be at risk. Conversely, exporters such as commodities and heavy equipment players would tend to benefit. Companies with high USD debt would also be negatively impacted if IDR weakening continues.

¨ All in, commodities and high dividend yield stocks offer some shield, in our view. We like London Sumatra and United Tractors as commodity plays, while Indocement Tunggal and Hexindo Adiperkasa offer highest dividend yields. Stocks with strong fundamentals for potential bottom-fishing include Bank Negara Indonesia, Astra International, Ciputra Development, Bumi Serpong Damai, Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Indofood Sukses Makmur and Waskita Karya. (Helmy Kristanto)


Nov 10,2016 23:01:55

Trump victory - the impact on Indonesia
JCI went into considerable correction, down as much as 2.4% during the intraday, following the prospect of Trump’s winning. Selling pressure were visible across sector, with IDR also depreciated 0.9%. Closer to end of trading hour, market slightly improved mainly led by a rebound on commodity counters, with index closed down 1% with IDR relatively flat.
The Trump’s winning undoubtedly creates uncertainty, especially on the execution and direction of what would be the policy under his administrative, on both economy and politic. According to our economist, historical facts imply that a clean sweep tends to be more positive for the US economy in general because of less gridlock. As such, with Republican sweep (Trump President and GOP Congress), fiscal policy, both from higher spending and lower taxes, is likely to be more expansionary over the next four years on average. It is still too early to conclude for any potential downward revision on economic growth at this stage.
One of the main concerns of the Trump administration would be on potential trade protectionist (anti-trade) issue. In regards of Indonesia, the main export products to the US would be textile, rubber product, shoes, electronics and F&B with export to US accounts for 12% of total non oil and gas export. However, the impact the share of export to GDP in Indonesia remains the lowest in the region at 22% (Vs Thailand’s 58%, Malaysia 73% and Singapore 198%), which would provide much-needed shelter under global economy volatility circumstances. Domestic consumption and government-led infrastructure spending continue to serve as the underpinning factors for economic growth improvement and we still expect economy growth at 5.3% in 2017.

Our economist still expect that the Fed is likely to go ahead with its tightening policy bias and raise rate by 25 bps this December. As such, one of the palpable risks would be on currency of which IDR has enjoyed 5% appreciation ytd. Any sudden increase in volatility could risk of escalation of importation of raw material and potential cost overrun in certain infra projects, which undoubtedly will led to inflation and growth risk. In our view, this risk would be contained, especially as: 1. Indonesia rising forex reserve of USD115b and expected to reach USD150b by 2017; 2. Repatriation fund inflow by end of the year; and 3. Record low inflation outlook at sub-4% level.
Acknowledging potential change in global trade and politics, Indonesia with its domestic consumption at the core, remains to offer attractive investment thesis. At this stage, we see no change on Indonesia fundamental investment story, and maintain our constructive view mainly underpin by macro improvement and government-led infrastructure investment. Our top picks in the market mainly comprise of company with strong balance and visible earnings growth and they are: $BBNI, $CTRA, $BSDE, $TLKM, $INDF and $WSKT. To play on the positive rally on the commodity, we like LSIP and UNTR. (Helmy Kristanto)

Nov 08,2016 19:11:33

Telekomunikasi Indonesia ($TLKM): Leading The Pack

Telkom remains our Top Pick for Indonesia telco exposure, from its:

1. Strong commercial execution;

2. Superior balance sheet/ROIs;

3. Ex-Java dominance which, in our view, is unlikely to be severely compromised by the shift in regulatory stance.

Post 1 Nov results call (results announced on 25 Oct), we raise our FY16-18 core earnings forecasts by 8-12%, factoring in stronger service revenue growth and EBITDA. Our DCF-based TP (WACC: 10.7%, TG: 1.5%) is accordingly lifted to IDR5,200 (from IDR5,000, 24% upside).

¨ Strong subs growth reflects market activities. Telkomsel attributed the strong QoQ surge in subscriber (subs) net-additions to heightened acquisition activities during the quarter and its superior network. Its prepaid subs addition rose 4% QoQ to 6.2m – the highest quarterly addition since FY12. The legacy revenue growth of 7% YoY in 9M16 compares with the sharp 16.3% decline in XL Axiata (XL) (EXCL IJ, BUY, TP: IDR3,832), which is seeing a faster shift in smartphone adoption. Both voice revenue per minute (RPM) and revenue per SMS (RPSMS) grew 10% and 11% QoQ respectively in 3Q16, supported by the re-pricing of tariffs during Lebaran. Management has kept headline guidance:

i. Revenue growth to be better than industry growth which it projects at 10-11%;

ii. A slight decline in EBITDA margin;

iii. Capex/sales of 25% (with the focus on broadband investments).

Key risks are stronger-than-expected competition and higher-than-expected capex.

¨ Scope for higher data growth. Telkomsel’s below average smartphone penetration of 47% in 3Q16 (average pulled up by XL which has 60% of its subscribers on smartphone as at 3Q16) reflects the profile of its base which comprised largely of silver hair users and the Java concentration of its rivals. We see strong data growth opportunities going forward with the gap progressively narrowed, supported by its superior network.

¨ IC rates decision soon. Management expects a decision on the interconnect (IC) rates by the Indonesia Telecoms Regulatory Body soon. To recap, the new IC framework was initially slated for implementation in August but pushed back pending a further review. While the regulatory environment looks to be less favourable for Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Telkom)/Telkomsel (allowing peers to further encroach into its non-Java stronghold), management said the impact from the change in the IC rate would be minimal (IC revenue makes up only about 1% of group revenue) with 90% of its traffic ex-Java being on-net.

¨ IndiHome realignment. Telkom expects its IndiHome (triple play service) customer base to double-up in FY17 from 1.5m in 3Q16 with the focus on the more profitable subscribers. A deliberate attempt to remove low-paying subscribers led to higher churn in 3Q16. However, its ARPU improved sequentially to IDR313,000 from 2Q16’s IDR300,000.

Nov 08,2016 19:08:47

Escalation in political tension; Macro improvement remains intact

While demonstration arguably has became part of life in Jakarta, last Friday’s demonstration would be one of the largest, reported to gather c. 50,000 people. The action were joined by many Moslem organisations from several regions to protest against Basuki T. Purnama (Ahok) on the allegation of religious defamation. The demonstration was mostly running in peace and calm order, but suddenly escalate into chaos at c.6 pm, the cut off time limit given by police. Couple of police trucks were burned with several casualty was reported on both side. The chaos only occurred in two specific locations, outside the Presidential Palace and one location in North Jakarta, with one Indomaret convenience store was looted. On Sunday, the police mentioned that the perpetrators of chaos in North Jakarta were unrelated to the one in Presidential Palace, and appears to be purely criminal act.

3 key messages from President Jokowi

We were encouraged by the way of the police and army to act quickly to restore the stability with tear gas, water cannon and truncheons, with strict order that rubber bullet was not allowed to be used. The situation was mostly under control past midnight.

Presiden Jokowi held press conference on early Saturday, with 3 key messages: 1. He condemned the chaos and violent demonstration;2. The legal process of Jakarta governor alleged transgressions would be concluded quickly and transparently and 3. Political actors are believed to ride on yesterday's chaos. In our view, the third points would signify escalation of political tension, which would led the government to make stronger intelligence effort and beef up security to prevent the whole situation to heighten. President Jokowi has also delayed his trip to Australia (scheduled: 6-8 Nov) to focus in restoring domestic stability.

Negative pressure is expected but macro improvement is still on tract

JCI has priced in a peaceful rally on Friday, with index closed up +0.6% ( +1.1% from Friday's low). Selling pressure is expected to happen on Monday, especially on the potential higher volatility of IDR.

There is also growing concern in relation to the prospect of asset repatriation under the current tax amnesty scheme. While the repatriation has been reported to the tax office, the physical transfer of that assets are still underway, with deadline by end of December. As such, it is imperative for the government to act quickly to restore confidence.

Despite Friday’s chaos, we see no change on Indonesia fundamental investment story, underpin by macro improvement and government-led infrastructure investment. Our top pick in the market are: $BBNI, $CTRA, $BSDE, $TLKM, $INDF and $WSKT.

Aug 29,2016 22:08:56
Indonesia Equities: Pricing In Near Term Positives

Key Points

- +9% gains in MSCI Indonesia since our country upgrade in July - Since our upgrade of Indonesian equities to overweight two months ago in the MIG publication after clarity on its tax amnesty programme emerged, sentiment has further improved following the appointment of well respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. The Indonesian equity market has seen strong equity inflows in 3Q16 lifting the index up ~9% (local currency terms, +8.2% in USD), which has outpaced world equities’ gains (+5.2%) for the same period and supported our call.

- Year to date’s gains of +18.6% has also more than recouped 2015’s losses of -12%, which has supported the turnaround highlighted in our January 2016’s South East Asia Equity Strategy report. The equity market rally year to date has been supported by a benign environment of lower interest rates, stable IDR currency vs the USD, under-owned positions in global portfolios and improving confidence in Indonesia’s recovery story. Estimated equity inflows into Indonesia so far for 3Q has exceeded the total inflows for 1H16, driving the market to new highs. Since mid May this year, it is estimated that net equity inflows reached $1.7bln, vs $1.6bln net outflows over the whole of 2015 (source: JPM estimates).

- Near term positives post amnesty and cabinet reshuffle look priced in, valuations are now close to 10 year high – At 16x PER, Indonesian equities is now trading close to +2 standard deviations to its 10 year historical average multiple and at its highest valuation level since 2007, which we believe has priced in much of the near term positives. Although near term liquidity is likely to remain supportive given benign expectations on interest rates, we caution that valuations have caught up and believe it is prudent to start taking some money off the table. On domestic updates, while the recently released 2017 budget is credible, it is unlikely to lead to further corporate earnings upgrades given a moderate government spending target of 6% (planned fiscal deficit for 2017 is 2.4% of GDP, flat/lower than 2016E). Towards the end of September and December which marks the first and second phases of the tax amnesty programme’s staggered tax rates for declared wealth, investor sentiment may also be influenced by expectations over the tax collections.

- Muted start to the 9-month tax amnesty programme, although still early days - As of 23rd August 2016, the asset declaration in the Tax Amnesty Program has reached Rp51.7tn, consisting of 85% onshore/15% offshore assets (12% overseas assets declared, 3% overseas net assets repatriated), while asset repatriation has reached Rp1.6 tn. Momentum of onshore assets declared in first half of August has picked up, with the tax office reporting about Rp11.5tn worth of onshore assets declared (>4x July’s). About three-quarters of the assets declared were from private individuals, and the balance private entities, which we view as supportive of property sector’s recovery given interest rates are expected to remain low while the Ministry of Finance has allowed repatriated funds to be invested in real assets (such as property and gold).

- Looking ahead, earnings upgrades need to pick up momentum for the rally to have more legs - Earnings wise, the recent 2Q results season was mixed with single digit corporate top line growth from a year ago. Concerns on banks remain dragged by asset quality issues while commodity related earnings have been moderate. Following the latest 2Q earnings season (where consensus earnings were trimmed -2% lower for FY16E and FY17E), FY16E and FY17E earnings are now forecast to grow +7% and +14% respectively (higher than Asia ex Japan equities’ 2.2% FY16E and 11% for FY17E respectively) which we believe is priced in current valuations.

Time to lock in some profits – Switch out of names which have rallied and offer no upside to target prices
- Sectors we are cautious on are: Commodity related plays which have rallied and priced in recovery expectations (coal – Bukit Asam, ITMG, palm oil – Astra Agro, London Sumatra), Banks (loans growth will be moderate while we expect asset quality concerns to remain a near term overhang) and Utilities (in particular, Perusahaan Gas – where we think profitability will remain pressured by regulatory efforts to lower gas prices).

Preferred Picks/Switch Ideas

- Preferred Sectors we would accumulate new positions are: Property (Bumi Serpong – Western Jakarta play, large landbank catering to middle income buyers), Telecommunications (Telekomunikasi Indonesia – improving smartphone penetration and data usage supported by a young population), Consumer (Indofood and Media Nusantara, which benefit from an improving domestic economy in 2H16) and Infrastructure (Jasa Marga – No. 1 toll road operator, long term beneficiary of infrastructure development in Indonesia).

- Risks to the current rally include weaker than expected global economy, faster than expected Federal Reserve interest rate hikes which may result in global liquidity volatility and disappointments in the domestic recovery and infrastructure spending pace (continues to be a focus in the 2017 budget, with 9% yoy expected growth).


Jul 27,2016 08:50:24
EARNINGS CALENDAR (Half Year 2016 - Estimated)

JULY 2016

Jul 25, 2016 :
$BBTN (Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 26, 2016
$BDMN (Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT)
$BMRI (Persero) Tbk PT Earnings Release - 4:00PM GMT+7

Jul 27, 2016
$AALI (Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT)
$HMSP (Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT)
$LPPF (Matahari Department Store Tbk PT)
$MPPA (Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT)
$PTBA (Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 28, 2016
$ASII (Astra International Tbk PT)
$BEST (Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk PT)
$BJBR (PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk)
$DOID (Bloomberg)
$NCO (Vale Indonesia Tbk PT)
$JPFA (Bloomberg)
$PSAB (Bloomberg)
$SSMS (Bloomberg)
$SMGR (Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$UNTR (United Tractors Tbk PT)
$UNVR (Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT)

Jul 29, 2016
$ASRI (Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT)
$ADHI (Bloomberg)
$BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk PT)
$BNGA (Bloomberg)
$BNLI (Bloomberg)
$BNII (Bloomberg)
$BKSL (Bloomberg)
$BHIT (Bloomberg)
$BISI (Bloomberg)
$CPIN (Bloomberg)
$CTRA (Ciputra Development Tbk PT)
$CTRP (Bloomberg)
$ELSA (Bloomberg)
$GIAA (Bloomberg)
$GJTL (Bloomberg)
$GGRM (Gudang Garam Tbk PT)
$NKP (Bloomberg)
$INTP (Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT)
$INDF (Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$ICBP (Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$INDY (Bloomberg)
$KARW (Bloomberg)
$KAEF (Bloomberg)
$KIJA (Bloomberg)
$KLBF (Kalbe Farma Tbk PT)
$KRAS (Bloomberg)
$LPKR (Lippo Karawaci Tbk PT)
$LSIP (Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk PT)
$MAPI (Bloomberg)
$PWON (Bloomberg)
$PNBN, $PNLF, $PNIN (Bloomberg)
$PTPP (Bloomberg)
$RALS (Bloomberg)
$SMRA (Bloomberg)
$TBLA (Bloomberg)
$TLKM (Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$TOTL (Bloomberg)
$WSKT (Bloomberg)

Aug 1, 2016
$HRUM (Harum Energy Tbk PT)
$SSIA (Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT)

Aug 10, 2016
$ITMG (Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk PT)

Aug 12, 2016
$EXCL (XL Axiata Tbk PT)

Aug 29, 2016
$ADRO (Adaro Energy Tbk PT)
$ANTM (Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk PT)
$BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$ISAT (Indosat Tbk PT)
$PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)


Sep 13, 2016
$SMCB (Holcim Indonesia)

Jul 13,2016 09:28:13
Regional Telecommunications: Re-Winding The Yield Compression Theme

The continuing risk-off sentiment post Brexit is generally supportive of yield-oriented telco markets. Since the 24 Jun referendum, SG Telcos – which are the most predisposed to the dividend theme – have re-rated by 11-13% (MY Telcos: +2-3%, TH Telcos: +2-6%). Assuming a further 50bps compression in yields, we estimate an added 10-13% upside for SG Telcos (MY/TH Telcos: +9-16%). Telcos with the greatest upside across the ASEAN-4 are M1, AIS and Singtel on a renewed yield compression theme. Our regional telco Top Picks: Telkom Indonesia, M1, AIS and Time dotCom.

¨ Re-dialling the yield theme post Brexit. Telco stocks have garnered renewed interest following the unprecedented Brexit outcome and the US federal fund futures market pricing in zero probability of a rate hike for the year (the US Federal Reserve has kept interest rate unchanged at its June meeting). The re-rating bears some resemblance to the yield compression theme that swept across emerging/developed market telcos at the height of the US quantitative easing (QE) programme in 2010-2013 against the backdrop of low interest rates (see our 25 Aug 2015 sector report: Telecommunications : Staying Connected – Aug 2015). With the continuing risk-off sentiment globally, we expect markets/investors to remain supportive of yield-related telcos as haven assets.

¨ SG Telcos score highly on yields. The SG Telco market is the most predisposed to the yield compression theme of the ASEAN-4, with the telcos’ superior dividend yields of 5-6% and larger yield spreads of 2.8% (5-year mean). This compares with MY/TH Telcos’ dividend yields of 3-5%/4-6% and yield spreads of 0.7%/2.1% respectively. Singapore/Malaysia/Thailand bond yields have narrowed by 24bps/25bps/17bps respectively since the Brexit vote and are likely to compress further in the current environments. M1, Advanced Info Service (AIS) and Singtel have the greatest exposure to the yield compression theme, with yield spreads above their long-term means.

¨ Competitive risks are top most concerns in three of the four ASEAN-4 markets. We continue to see competition as key risks for the telco sector in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, given the combination of spectrum award/reallocations, potential new entrants and challenges monetising data (pressure on data yields). The telecom regulators in Malaysia and Singapore are in the process of re-farming existing spectrum (via auctions or direct assignments), which will further level the playing field and/or attract new operators. All three telco markets have witnessed marked deceleration in service revenue growth over the last two years on structural legacy revenue weakness and acute data substitution.

¨ IND Telcos remain the most fundamentally attractive. IND Telcos are not regarded as yield stocks (the focus has been more on earnings delivery) and should be insensitive to external/macroeconomic risks/developments, in our view. The sector remains our sole OVERWEIGHT among the ASEAN-4 (we remain NEUTRAL on Malaysia and Singapore, and UNDERWEIGHT on Thailand). This is driven by the industry’s superior growth prospects, the largely benign market competition and undemanding valuations. Telkom Indonesia remains our IND Telcos Top Pick. (Jeffrey Tan)


Jun 17,2016 08:44:44
Indonesia’s Top Stock Picker Likes Noodle-Maker, Tobacco Shares
By Harry Suhartono

(Bloomberg) -- Buying consumer stocks and avoiding banks
has proved a winning formula for the manager of Indonesia’s top-
performing share fund. To maintain returns, PT Samuel Aset
Manajemen is focusing on companies that are benefiting from a
rise in spending by lower-income people.
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ($ICBP), an instant noodle-maker, PT
Gudang Garam ($GGRM), a tobacco company, and PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia ($TLKM)
are among Samuel’s top picks, President Director Agus Yanuar
said in an interview in his office in Jakarta. They are
benefiting from an increase in consumer spending driven by
rising raw-material prices and policies to help poorer people,
he said.
“The rebound in commodity prices has helped lower-income
consumers,” said Yanuar. “That, combined with the decision to
lift the threshold for non-taxable income and the various
government assistance for education and health care, has boosted
Indonesia’s key raw-material exports including coal, tin
and palm oil have rallied this year, providing more work in
commodity-dependent areas like Sumatra and Kalimantan and having
a flow-on effect to local businesses. A sevenfold jump in the
amount earmarked for social security programs in this year’s
budget and a 50 percent increase in the level of income
Indonesians don’t have to pay tax on is also putting more money
in wallets.
Samuel Aset’s SAM Indonesian Equity Fund has returned 15
percent so far this year, beating all peers with assets of more
than 1 trillion rupiah ($75 million) and tripling the Jakarta
Composite Index’s 4.8 percent advance, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.
Southeast Asia’s largest economy grew at the slowest pace
since 2009 last year and President Joko Widodo is attempting to
spur growth via infrastructure spending, pressuring banks to
lower lending rates and a planned tax amnesty, which the central
bank estimates could lure about 560 trillion rupiah of
undeclared income from overseas.
Samuel went underweight Indonesian banks after the
Financial Services Authority said in February that it would cap
deposit rates and force lenders to make similar reductions to
their loan rates, said Yanuar, who helps manage the SAM
Indonesian fund. The Jakarta Finance Index is the worst
performer among nine industry measures on the JCI this year,
declining 2.8 percent.
The Jakarta Consumer Goods Index has risen 11.4 percent in
2016. Indofood is up 24 percent, Gudang Garam has rallied 15
percent and Telkom has advanced 25 percent.
Jun 15,2016 10:18:16
Oil at US$50/bbl – Sweet Spot for Indonesia; Tax Amnesty – On Schedule for June 2016 Implementation

- Higher oil price will reduce fiscal deficit — The Indonesian government now expects incremental revenue from the recent bounce in oil price to ~US$50/bbl. Despite Indonesia is a net importer of oil & gas, fiscal deficit could decline by Rp0.1- 0.9trn based on government’s calculation for every US$1/bbl of oil price increase. The government is currently using an oil price of US$35/bbl in their 2016 proposed budget and thus with higher oil prices, they should receive additional revenue from the oil & gas sector.

- Gasoline being sold at c.US$50/bbl equivalent after taking into account the distribution margins of Pertamina — The current price of gasoline at Rp6,550/litre translates to c.US$48-50/bbl of oil prices. Thus the government is already at a comfortable level in terms of the selling prices of gasoline, and should see no pressure to increase the prices unless the oil prices were to increase to a higher level, say US$55-60/bbl. At Rp6,550/litre, Pertamina is making a distribution margin of Rp1,010/litre, as per government calculations (see Fig 1 for government’s detailed calculation of fuel prices).

- Non-subsidized fuel (RON97) in Malaysia is cheaper vs that in Indonesia — RON95 gasoline price in Indonesia (Rp8,250/litre) is +22% higher than RON97 price in Malaysia (Rp6,715/litre). The RON97 in Malaysia is a non-subsidize fuel while the RON95 is still being subsidized and sold at Rp5,575/litre.

- Tax amnesty is still on schedule to be passed in June 2016 — We see such an outcome as not being priced in by the market (see our recent Indonesian strategy note - Still Positive: Spotlight on Five Key Issues for Market). The parliament head of commission XI, Ahmadi Noor Supi, mentioned that tax amnesty bill will not get delayed since it is a critical part of the government’s 2016 budget revision. As per the government, they have included proceeds amounting to ~Rp103trn (US$7-8bn) from the tax amnesty bill in the 2016 revised budget.

- Maintain our positive view on the market — At a 1-year forward PER of 15.1x, the JCI is not cheap but nor does it look overly expensive, and we maintain our 5,700 target (+16%) set last October. Sector-wise, we continue to like property, construction and infra. $ASII rejoins our top picks and we see more value in banks as gainers from the expected passage of a tax amnesty bill. Top picks: $BBNI, $BBTN, $LPPF, $TLKM, $ASII, $MIKA, $PTPP, $ADHI, $BSDE, $CTRA, $PWON and $JSMR.

- Key market catalysts and risks — 1) Tax amnesty; 2) Lower personal income tax which would lift purchasing power. Risks: 1) Fed rate hikes; 2) Delay in passage of tax amnesty; 3) Heavy-handed policy intervention

Jun 07,2016 12:26:34

•PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI : Pemerintah memberi sinyal penurunan asumsi laju produk domestik bruto dari usulan RAPBNP 2016 sebesar 5,3% menjadi 5,1%-5,2%. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

•REGULASI IMPOR PONSEL & KOMPUTER : Per 1 Juli, Importir Produsen Wajib Investasi
Mulai 1 Juli 2016, impor telepon seluler, komputer genggam (handheld), dan komputer tablet khususnya untuk perangkat yang berada dalam jaringan 4G LTE oleh importir produsen wajib menyertakan bukti investasi di dalam negeri. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

•INDUSTRI PAKAN TERNAK : Jagung Ditekan, Impor Gandum Melonjak, Pengetatan impor jagung berimbas pada meningkatnya impor gandum untuk pakan ternak. Penurunan impor jagung juga telah menyebabkan penyerapan komoditas itu dari petani lokal naik cukup signifikan. (BISNIS INDONESIA) Comment : good for BISI

•TAMBAHAN MODAL BUMN : PMN Cair, Rencana penerbitan saham baru oleh BUMN kembali mencuat setelah pemerintah mengusulkan Penyertaan Modal Negara (PMN) dalam Rancangan APBN Perubahan 2016 kepada DPR. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

•WTON : Perusahaan beton pracetak PT Wijaya Karya Beton Tbk. sudah mengantongi proyek infrastruktur HSR Jakarta-Bandung dan menggenggam total nilai kontrak baru hingga Rp1,3 triliun. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

•RI MASUK LIMA BESAR DUNIA - Ledakan Besar di Ritel : Lompatan peringkat Indonesia, dari 12 menjadi 5, dalam Global Retail Development Index (GRDI) 2016 kian mengonfirmasi terjadinya booming sektor ritel di Tanah Air. (BISNIS INDONESIA) Comment : Good For ACES, RANC

•STOK CPO MENURUN : Ramadan Kerek Harga CPO, Persediaan minyak kelapa sawit di Malaysia, sebagai produsen kedua terbesar di dunia, diprediksi menyusut ke level terendah dalam dua tahun terakhir. Harga pun berpeluang mencapai level 2.900 ringgit per ton pada bulan ini. (BISNIS INDONESIA) Good For LSIP, AALI

•TLKM : PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk mengaku sudah meraih pendapatan sekitar Rp 15 triliun dari segmen High End Market yang dikelola Enterprise Customer Facing Unit (CFU). (INDO TELKO)

•BBRI- BMRI : Bank BRI (Persero) Tbk dan Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk berkomitmen membiayai permodalan bagi distributor minyak pelumas buatan PT Pertamina Lubricants. (KOMPAS)

•BMRI : Bank Mandiri’s e-money solution provider PT Digital Artha Media (DAM) will sign partnership agreements with 13 e-commerce companies while Indonesian Agency for Creative Economy (BEKRAF) has joined hands with several venture capital firms to fund the 16 sub-sectors in the creative industry. (DEAL STREET ASIA)

•Harga Nickel Dan Timah
Tin 3M : 16945  +350  +2.11%
Nickel 3M : 8665  +165  +1.94%



Jun 06,2016 15:49:36
Regional Telecommunications: Come Forth, Next Generation…

This report documents 4G developments across the ASEAN-4 telcos and complements RHB’s coverage initiation on the world’s largest mobile telecommunications group, CM. 4G has gained considerable traction across developing markets due to rapid network expansion and the use of optimal spectrum bands. Falling prices of 4G handsets are also driving a raft of upgrades to the spectrally-efficient technology. We expect 4G to be near ubiquitous across the ASEAN-4 by 2018/2019, helped by data-centric applications and the progressive adoption of the 700MHz band.

¨ 4G is increasingly mainstream. 494 LTE networks have been launched in 162 countries as at April, with over half of live deployments in developing markets, according to Global Mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) data. Across the ASEAN-4, 4G was first commercialised in Singapore (2012), followed by Malaysia/Thailand (2013) and Indonesia (2014). The rapid 4G footprint expansion in the Asia-Pacific region has helped drive strong subscriber (sub) conversion from 3G, with the decline in price-points of handsets further easing barriers to switching. We expect 4G penetration in the ASEAN-4/China markets to respectively reach 60-70%/83% by 2018 from 15%/33% currently.

¨ China’s 4G coverage is already above 90%. China Mobile’s (CM) (HK:0941) pervasive 4G coverage in China puts it in an enviable position to drive stronger data uptake and ARPU uplifts going forward, in our view. Its 4G sub penetration surged to 37.8% in 2015 (2014: 11.2%) post aggressive 2014/2015 4G capex. We project its data traffic to grow by a FY15-18 CAGR of 54.1% while blended ARPU is set to rise to CNY66.00 in FY18 (FY15: CNY57.70). While average data consumption in China still lags the ASEAN-4, the gap should narrow quickly, given the proliferation of over-the-top (OTT) applications and the Chinese penchant for online services and social media.

¨ Improved data economics from overstated regulatory risks. Unlike few ASEAN-4 markets where spectrum is typically auctioned off or awarded via a beauty contest, Chinese telcos are beneficiaries of near free spectrum allocated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). This eliminates the risk of hefty amortisation charges from prohibitive spectrum costs, which may dis-incentivise network investments. Regulatory risks, in our view, are overstated in China, as some polices do offer long-term mutual benefits.

¨ We add China telecoms to our ASEAN-4 coverage. Indonesia remains our sole OVERWEIGHT among the ASEAN-4 telcos. We like the Indo telcos given their superior growth prospects among ASEAN-4 telcos, steady competition in the market and the sector’s attractive 4.5x FY16F EV/EBITDA valuations. We are NEUTRAL on Malaysia and Singapore telcos on concerns over rising competitive risks from potential new entrants, while our UNDERWEIGHT stance on the Thai telcos is premised on stiff 4G competition, regulatory related risks and prohibitive spectrum payouts. Our preferred ASEAN-4 telco picks are Telkom Indonesia, Axiata Group, XL Axiata (XL), Advanced Info Service (AIS) and M1. (Jeffrey Tan, Wong Cheng Horng, CFA, Ken Chui)

$TLKM $EXCL $ISAT HK:0941 HK:0728 SG:B2F
May 30,2016 07:59:42

•Yellen beri sinyal The Fed naikkan suku bunga dalam hitungan bulan, Namun, kenaikan suku bunga acuan hanya bisa dilakukan jika ekonomi AS terus menunjukkan perbaikan. The Fed akan kembali melakukan pertemuan Federal Open Meeting Committee (FOMC) pada 14 hingga 15 Juni 2016 guna mendiskusikan kenaikan suku bunga. The Fed telah menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 0,25 persen untuk pertama kalinya dalam 9 tahun pada Desember 2015 dan belum menaikkan lagi hingga kini. Pada Jumat (27/5/2016) lalu, Departemen Perdagangan AS merevisi proyeksi pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) pada kuartal I 2016 mencapai 0,8 persen. Sebelumnya, PDB AS pada kuartal I 2016 diprediksi hanya 0,5 persen. Adapun angka pengangguran tercatat 5,5 persen pada bulan Mei 2016. Angka ini dipandang bagus oleh The Fed, meski Yellen menyatakan banyak pekerja paruh waktu yang masih mencari pekerjaan tetap. Pun The Fed juga ingin inflasi di AS berada pada posisi 2 persen.  (KOMPAS)

•Menteri Keuangan Bambang Permadi Brodjonegoro menjelaskan *penyebab mata uang rupiah yang terus melemah* selama sepekan ini adalah :
1.Rupiah terus melemah karena adanya spekulasi bank sentral Amerika Serikat atau Federal Reserve yang akan menaikkan tingkat suku bunganya sekitar Juni atau Juli. (Ada kemungkinan naiknya dua kali dalam setahun ini)
2.Karena adanya perusahaan asing yang membayarkan dividen ke pemegang saham. *_Menkeu menegaskan, pelemahan rupiah ini tidak mengakibatkan para investor akan meninggalkan Indonesia untuk berinvestasi. Ia juga yakin setelah ada kepastian dari Federal Reserve tentang suku bunga rupiah akan berbalik menguat._* (KOMPAS)

•Arab Saudi nyatakan mampu produksi minyak 12,5 juta barel per hari, peningkatan produksi itu salah satunya adalah karena adanya perang harga untuk kembali memperoleh porsi pasar yang besar setelah tersisih oleh Amerika Serikat dan negara-negara lainnya. (KOMPAS)

•Bank Dunia Hibah 22 Juta Dollar AS untuk *Pengelolaan Hutan Indonesia*. (KOMPAS)

•Bank Indonesia sedang mengkaji revisi batas atas dan bawah giro wajib minimum rasio pinjaman terhadap sumber dana (loan to funding ratio/LFR) untuk mendorong pertumbuhan kredit. (KOMPAS)

•*KIJA* : Kawasan Industri Kendal, anak usaha PT Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk. menyatakan sebanyak delapan investor siap melakukan groundbreaking atau peletakan batu pertama pembangunan pabrik di kawasan industri Kendal. (BISNIS INDONESIA)

•*SMGR* : Semen Indonesia Bangun Pabrik di Aceh dan Kupang. (WARTA EKONOMI)

•*SMBR (Semen Baturaja)* : Riset Pefindo 26 Mei 2016, Target Harga Terendah : 497, Target Harga Tertinggi : 518 SEE MORE :

•Transaksi e-commerce di Asia Tenggara capai US$200 miliar pada 2026, Hasil penelitian Google Inc dan Temasek Holdings Pte menunjukkan bahwa nilai bisnis yang bersumber dari penggunaan internet termasuk belanja, game, dan iklan online di Asia Tenggara dalam 10 tahun ke depan bakal melonjak enam kali lipat menjadi US$ 200 miliar. Dari nilai tersebut, transaksi belanja online (e-commerce) di Asia Tenggara diproyeksikan mencapai US$ 88 miliar pada tahun 2025, atau meningkat 16 kali lipat. Dalam penelitiannya, Google dan Temasek menyebutkan bahwa pertumbuhan nilai bisnis berbasis internet tersebut didorong oleh kenaikan pengguna internet di kawasan Asia Tenggara. (WARTA EKONOMI)

•*RANC (PT Supra Boga Lestari Tbk)*
1.PT Supra Boga Lestari Tbk berhasil mencatatkan pertumbuhan pendapatan bersih sebesar 16,3 persen atau menjadi Rp 1,92 triliun pada 2015.
(pencapaian tersebut  melampaui target yang ditetapkan sebesar 106,4 persen)
2.Pada akhir 2015, PT Supra Boga Lestari (RANC) telah mengoperasikan 26 toko, yaitu 11 Ranch Market dan 15 Farmers Market.
3.RANC memutuskan menjual seluruh kepemilikan saham RANC di PT Bahagia Niaga Lestari, yang merupakan entitas anak perusahaan yang menjalankan bisnis convenience store dengan nama Ministop, pada akhir 2015.
4.Dengan kembalinya RANC ke inti kompetensi bisnisnya, kinerja RANC akan meningkat signifikan.
5.Untuk meningkatkan kesetiaan pelanggan, pada Oktober 2015 RANC telah meluncurkan loyalty card dengan nama Trust Card.
6.Tahun ini, RANC telah memiliki tiga lokasi untuk pengembangan toko baru, yaitu dua Ranch Market di Jakarta Selatan dan satu Farmers Market di Cikupa, Tangerang. Rencananya, ketiga toko itu mulai beroperasi pada kuartal kedua dan keempat 2016.
7.Selain itu, pada kuartal ketiga, RANC akan meluncurkan _online shopping dengan nama (TEMPO)

•*TLKM* : Telkom pertahankan prestasi di ajang Asia Pacific Stevie Awards, dengan berhasil mempertahankan  prestasi monumental dalam ajang Asia Pacific Stevie Awards  yang berlangsung di Sydney, belum lama ini. (INDOTELKO)

•*TOBA* : PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk. tengah memproses ekspansi bisnis pembangkit listrik dengan kapasitas maksimal 200 megawatt. (TENDER INDONESIA)

•Pemerintah umumkan Lelang 15 BLok Migas, 15 blok itu terdiri dari 14 blok konvensional dan 1 blok nonkonvensional. Ada delapan tender reguler dan tujuh penawaran langsung (direct proposal). Adapun wilayah kerja (WK) konvensional yang ditawarkan dengan reguler tender adalah South CPP (berlokasi di Provinsi Riau), Blok Oti (Selat Makassar), Blok Suremana I (Selat Makassar), Blok Manakara Mamuju (Selat Makassar), Blok Mandar Tenggara (Selat Makassar), Blok Arguni Utara (Papua barat), Blok Kasuri II (Papua Barat). Sementara tender reguler untuk WK nonkonvensional adalah Blok Batu Ampar (Kalimantan Timur). Selanjutnya WK konvensional dengan penawaran langsung adalah Blok Bukit Barat (berlokasi di Laut Natuna, Kepulauan Riau), Batu Gajah Dua (Jambi), Kasongan Sampit (Kalimantan Selatan), Blok Ampuh (Jawa Timur), Blok Ebuny (Sulawesi Tenggara), Blok Onin (Papua Barat) dan Blok Kaimana Barat (Papua Barat).
Untuk tender dengan cara penawaran langsung ("direct proposal"), akses dokumen penawaran dibuka dari 15 Juni--5 Agustus 2016, forum klarifikasi dari tanggal 20 Juni-5 Agustus 2016 dan batas akhir penyerahan penawaran pada 8 Agustus 2016.
Sementara untuk tender reguler, akses dokumen penawaran dibuka dari 15 Juni--19 Oktober 2016, forum klarifikasi dari tanggal 20 Juni-19 Oktober 2016 dan batas akhir penyerahan penawaran pada 20 Oktober 2016. (WARTA EKONOMI)

•Badan PengeIoIa Dana Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit (BPDPKS) mengembangkan inovasi terbaru yaitu Layanan Elektronik Pembayaran Pungutan Dana Sawit. Layanan ini melibatkan  Sucofindo dan tiga bank plat merah: Bank Mandiri, BRI dan BNI. (SAWIT INDONESIA)


May 16,2016 22:27:36
·         TLKM’s engine growth is mainly coming from cellular business with growth of 18% YoY especially from data of 40% due to high traffic for smartphone registration  

·         Indihome also remains as company’s backbone with the trend of increasing price. Compared to its competitor, Linknet that still use hybrid cables, Indihome’s has used fiber and the speed is faster. TLKM targets the additional 1.1-1.2bn subscribers of Indihome by the end of thus year. 80% of subscribers take standard package of around Rp400k per month which coming from previous discounts and promotions. Some bottleneck for Indihome business is the lacking of fiber recourses and technical as the they are also acting as sales person, selling Indihome products door to door. TLKM aims to improve RPU by having advertisement and new stream, tapping cooperation with OTT players. TLKM’s vision is to buy bulked and enrich the contents for Indihome

·         Capex’s plan is at 25% sales with allocation 60% for mobile, 5-10% for other business, and remaining for Indihome

·         Competitive advantage is being a triple players (phone, internet, and television)

·         Currently still focus on strategy to migrate existing speedy users to Indihome and improve 4G users with bonus quota program for Ramadan plan

·         1 day in Telkom is roughly equal with revenue or Rp230bn

·         Commentary for competitors of EXCL and ISAT who just made a JV, is a good to open up opportunities. TLKM states just watch and see whether the JV works

·         TLKM admits they need more spectrum holdings and expects to have more spectrum in tender 1H16. TLKM’s spectrum is as much as EXCL although TLKM’s market share is four times bigger

·         TLKM has no plan for M&A in near future

·         TLKM states that the current trend is bonus quota for 4G and will persist with separate data packages

·         Regarding employees, TLKM said more early retirement (ERP) coming in 3Q16 with budget of Rp500bn coming from HR guidelines until retirement in 2018. There are 20k staffs retired between 2017-2019 (normal retirement). Meanwhile, the new recruitment is decreasing due to difficulty in finding candidates with digital skills sets

·         Main concern for TLKM now is at competition for 4G and regulation for spectrum sharing and connection. TLKM also waits for any price intervention by govt


May 07,2016 13:19:54
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM), Strong Ex-Java Signals

Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Telkom) remains our Top Pick for exposure to the ASEAN-4/Indonesian telco sector on account of:
1. The continuing strong growth trajectory at Telkomsel where coverage/network quality remains unsurpassed outside of Java;
2. The new interconnect rates should have a neutral/minimal impact;
3. The group’s strong balance sheet, superior ROEs and class-leading dividend payout for a state-owned enterprise.
Our DCF TP of IDR4,000 (16% upside) is unchanged post the results call.


May 03,2016 11:58:44
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) Keeping the beat
More growth exposure from mobile and fixed data service
We increase Telkomsel’s 2016E revenue by 2% vs. old estimate, mainly on the back of higher data revenue by 3% (driven by traffic). Regarding fixed broadband, we expect Indihome to contribute 5-6% to TLKM’s revenue in 2016E-17E (vs. 1Q16 4%) assuming same ARPU level as 1Q16 at IDR326K. Currently, Indihome lowest packet price of IDR 405K (since Feb 2016; rose 16% from prev. IDR350K) is already similar to  LINK’s 1Q16 ARPU of IDR402K. Our 2016E revenue is 3% above our old estimate.
 Slight change in EBITDA
We revised up our 2016E-18E EBITDA by 3-5%, mainly due to higher revenue estimate and slight margin increase on the back of better 1Q16 EBITDA margin (no ERP) than our prev. estimate for 1Q16. Our 2016E ERP cost estimate is IDR500bn (possibly incurred in the remaining quarters this year). We also take into account that TLKM might expense est. IDR750bn final tax as expense in 2016 (already paid as cash but still booked in prepaid tax last year).
More capex to support data growth
We increase our 2016E-18E capex to sales assumption from 26-19% to  26-23% anticipating investment increase to support data growth. Our 2017E-18E capex is higher by 23/17% to old estimate.
Raise TP by 6% to Rp3,800 (10.1% ups.)  - Maintain Buy
Our DCF-based method assume WACC of 10.3%, slightly lower than previously 11.4% as: RFR down from 8.1% to 7.2%, Debt/capital ratio raised from 19% to 32% (FY15 total debt above our est.). We maintain terminal’s EV/EBITDA for Telkomsel at 9x, but slightly raise TLKM excl. Telkomsel from 6.0x to 6.5x on the back of transition progress from copper to more exposure in fiber optic business (if no re-rating, TP is IDR3.7K). TLKM trades at 8x 2016 EV/EBITDA, slightly below average regional telecoms’ excl. Indonesia 9x 2016E EV/EBITDA. Core 2016 PE of TLKM is 19x slight premium to regional telecoms excl. Indonesia at 18x. Our TP implies 9x 2016 EV/EBITDA and 21x 2016 PE. Our TP represents Telkomsel’s valuation at 10x and Telkom ex Telkomsel at 5x 2016E EV/EBITDA (below LINK’s current price valuation at 7x).


Apr 29,2016 09:46:41
Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat ($MIKA), Off To An Excellent Start

Post 1Q16 – which coincided with a dengue fever outbreak – Mitra Keluarga still expects healthy patient traffic in April, especially for its hospitals in the Jakarta region. It is receiving more corporate patients from the likes of PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia ($TLKM) and Perusahaan Listrik Negara. Its Tegal hospital in central Java, which serves BPJS (Indonesian universal healthcare) patients, is also seeing a pick-up in private patients. Thus, we keep our BUY call and DCF-based TP of IDR3,100 (19% upside).

Apr 29,2016 09:42:41
Indonesia: 12th stimulus policy – Further Streamlining in Various Permits
The government released the details of its 12th stimulus policy, which mostly aim to further simplify various permits in doing business. While the latest policy appears to be an accentuation of previous stimulus to streamlines business process, in our view the government continues to show its focus to attract more investment into domestic economy, especially given sizeable contribution from Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) to overall Indonesia’s economy.
Efforts to lure more investment
President Joko Widodo through several cabinet meetings has emphasized his means to increase the rating of the country’s Ease of Doing Business (EODB) to the 40th rank. The World Bank surveyed that Indonesia stood at rank 109th from a total of 189 surveyed countries. Other ASEAN countries such as Singapore and Malaysia stand at the 1st and 18th rank of the list. Currently, there are 10 indicators that measure the EODB rank for a country. The indicators are business starting process, construction permit dealing process, tax payment, credit accessibility, contract enforcement, electricity supply, across border trading, insolvency settlement, and minority investors protection. To comply with the indicators, the Indonesian Economic Ministry along with the Investment Coordinating Board formed deregulations through the 12th Economic Stimulus.
Key points of the 12th stimulus policy
The 12th stimulus introduced a new deregulation scheme that will cut 94 procedures into only 49 procedures and 9 permits to only 6 permits. Furthermore, the stimulus package is followed by the release of 16 new regulations.
¨ For the business starting process, the initial regulation requires investors to go through 13 procedures that will take 47 days and IDR6.8m-7.8m to obtain Business Permit (SIUP), Company Registration (TDP), Deed of Establishment, location permit, and nuisance permit. With the deregulation, investors will only need 7-10 days procedure with IDR2.7m fee. Moreover, the government will only require 3 permits for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME), which are SIUP, TDP, and deed of establishment.
¨ The government also released a new regulation through regulation no 7/2016 on changes in authorised capital for limited company. With the new regulation, MSME’s authorised capital will be determined by mutual agreement of the founders as outlined in the deed of establishment. However, the regulation will keep enacting the minimum requirement of IDR50m for limited company.
¨ As for building construction permit, the government will cut the process into 14 procedures within 52 days from initial of 17 procedures and 210 days of processing time. Moreover, the building construction permit fee will be reduced to IDR70m from the initial fee of IDR86m.
¨ Tax payment process will be cut into 10x payments with online system from an initial of 54x payments. While property registration will be cut into 3 procedures in 7 days with a fee of 8.3% from the value of property. The government previously imposed 5 procedures with 25 processing days and 10.8% fee for the property registration.
¨ The government also decreases the simple lawsuit settlement process to only 8 procedures in 28 days. Any disagreement on the verdict will be able to appeal with additional 3 procedures and maximum of 10 days of settlement.
Follow-up measure to reduce overall execution risk

Before the release of the 12th stimulus package, the government has released a total of 195 regulations from September 2015- April 2016. The government stated that as of 18 April, it has successfully completed 169 regulations or 87% from the total regulation released. There are 16 (8%) regulations that are still in the discussion process, while the remaining 10 regulations that will be taken out from the Economic Stimulus Package. The government stated that each packages received positive responses from investors and citizens. However, the government will increase its socialisation and evaluate the implementation through dissemination and business clinics. The business clinics aimed to further discuss the stimulus packages with stakeholders to ensure the on the ground efficiency of the packages. Moreover, the business clinic will also serve as the communication facility between investors and government to resolve any problems, including the export increment issues. The clinics and dissemination will be implemented in 3 regions, such as Palembang, Balikpapan, and Lombok.
The near term catalyst is the tax amnesty approval
We continue to believe that tax amnesty approval could serve as one of major catalyst in the near term. Post the Parliament’s recess session, the long-awaited tax amnesty bill is finally being discussed under the Commission XI, which has been holding hearing sessions with experts, business leaders and other stakeholders. Given its importance on the overall budget and the progress of infrastructure development, the Government is mulling over the fact that the bill could take effect in June. We believe the initial approval of the tax amnesty could be an important catalyst for the near term, as well as a major step taken in the right direction to finally foster the compliance of taxpayers – which could help solidify the Government’s overall budget composition going forward. As such, we expect further foreign fund inflows to support the market post the approval of the tax amnesty although we acknowledge that execution risks still remain at this juncture. Our top pick in the market are $BBCA, $BBTN, $ICBP, $INDF, $ADHI, $LPPF, $MIKA, $TLKM, $BSDE and $LSIP.

Apr 25,2016 09:19:58
Strong performance already priced in

Downgrade to Hold on share price spike post 1Q16 earnings announcement. We downgrade TLKM to a HOLD with an unchanged DCF-based target price of Rp3,800. We think TLKM’s solid performance as seen in 1Q16 (in-line) is well priced in, leaving only less than 5% potential upside to our target price, following its share price rally on the back of strong 1Q16 earnings expectation.

1Q16 performance largely in-line. EBITDA reached Rp14.7tr (+18.5% y-o-y, +2.2% q-o-q, EBITDA margin: 53.2%), slightly above our estimate and in line with consensus. NPAT reached Rp4.5tr (+20.2% y-o-y, +16.3% q-o-q), in line with our estimate but above consensus on stable financing cost. We expect is EBITDA margin to decline slightly on continuous broadband infrastructure development for both its mobile and fixed-line businesses, in line with guidance.

Solid top-line growth driven by Telkomsel. Revenue reached Rp27.5tr (+16.6% y-o-y, +3.0% q-o-q), in line with our and consensus estimates on strong Telkomsel performance. Amid stabilising price competition among operators, Telkomsel has raised its ARPU steadily while continuously growing its subscriber base, resulting double digits y-o-y top-line growth.

We downgrade TLKM to a HOLD with an unchanged target price of Rp3,800 (adjusted FY16 EV/EBITDA 7.7x), which is derived using the discounted cash flow (DCF) model with 9.4% weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and 1.0% terminal growth.

Key Risks to Our View:
Disruption to benign competition. If any player becomes aggressive in gaining market share and triggers a new wave of price war, the whole sector could suffer.

Apr 20,2016 10:45:20
Sediakan Layanan Mobile Money, BTPN Gandeng Telkomsel memberitakan  PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk (BTPN) bekerja sama dengan Telkomsel mengembangkan layanan keuangan terhubung TCASH-BTPN Wow!. Ini merupakan layanan yang menghubungkan mobile money TCASH dengan rekening tabungan BTPN Wow! yang merupakan layanan berbasis telepon genggam.
Interkonektivas kedua produk menjadikan layanan keuangan terhubung ini lebih lengkap yang mengkombinasikan kekuatan produk antara jaringan telekomunikasi dengan jaringan perbankan.
Kerja sama ini merupakan wujud nyata komitmen Telkomsel dan BTPN untuk membantu pemerintah dalam Gerakan Nasional Non Tunai (GNTT) dan percepatan keuangan inklusif di Indonesia.

"Kerja sama strategis dengan Telkomsel ini sejalan dengan komitmen BTPN untuk mengambil peran penting dalam mewujudkan keuangan yang inklusif di Indonesia. Kami meyakini kerja sama ini akan meningkatkan jumlah masyarakat yang belum tersentuh jasa layanan keuangan formal," ujar Jerry Ng, Direktur Utama BTPN dalam siaran persnya, Senin (18/4).
Ke depan, kata dia, BTPN aan terus membuka peluang kerja sama strategis untuk mempercepat pencapaian visi keuangan inklusif di Indonesia.

Melalui layanan keuangan terhubung TCASH-BTPN Wow! pelanggan dapat menikmati berbagai fitur keuangan, seperti uang elektronik, pembayaran mobile, rekening tabungan yang aman dengan bunga bulanan, tanpa dikenakan biaya administrasi dan saldo minimum.
Tidak cuma itu, fitur seamless registration yang tersedia di layanan ini akan memungkinkan pelanggan mendapatkan layanan finansial dengan biaya rendah. Fitur ini juga memudahkan pengaturan dana milik pelanggan yang disimpan dalam bentuk TCASH ataupun di dalam rekening BTPN Wow!.

Apr 05,2016 14:55:46
South East Asia (SEA) – Growth Reset Underway

SEA equity markets added on to gains in March with improving foreign inflows, as risk appetite improved following some stabilization in China and a weaker USD from delayed Fed hike rate expectations. With a dovish Fed and likely tightening only in June, investor concerns on the global economic recovery are expected to ease further near term, which will be supportive of risk assets.

Within the region, we view Indonesia and Philippines as offering relatively stronger structural growth stories. Apart from infrastructure plays such as Jasa Marga ($JSMR), sectors we favour in Indonesia include the property sector where we see potential catalysts from improving presales helped by a lower interest rates environment and progress in the government’s tax amnesty programme. We highlight Bumi Serpong ($BSDE), which is well positioned to benefit from a recovery in property demand while valuations remain undemanding. We also favour market leader Telekomunikasi Indonesia ($TLKM) following more rational competition in the telecommunications sector. With a stable earnings outlook driven by continued growth in voice and data revenues, we view TLKM as a core holding within the SEA telecommunications sector.

Incoming data releases from the Philippines indicate that domestic demand trends remain on a positive track in 1Q16. January’s remittances growth was also broadly in line with trend, growing 3.4% yoy (vs 2015’s 4.1% growth). The next key event domestically is the upcoming elections in May where we expect election rhetoric to cast some uncertainties in the equity market. Post elections, we expect the gradual reform pace to be maintained and highlight Ayala Corp  as one of our preferred large cap picks to accumulate on weakness, which offers a portfolio of stable and growth companies leading in their respective sectors and well positioned to benefit from the country’s economic growth
Mar 21,2016 13:35:39
Telco: Boost from Lower Frequency Charge

Pemerintah menurunkan BHP (Biaya Hak Penggunaan) Frekuensi pada 2.100 dan 2.300 Mhz untuk mendorong industri telekomunikasi. Kami meyakini hal ini positif untuk seluruh emiten telekomunikasi, dimana biaya BHP frekuensi merupakan salah satu komponen biaya terbesar dalam satu tahun. Pada 2015, $TLKM membayar BHP frekuensi hingga Rp3,6 triliun, $EXCL Rp2,8 triliun, dan $ISAT sekitar Rp2,6 triliun.

Kami memperkirakan hal ini akan mendorong laba bersih perusahaan telekomunikasi tahun ini. Kami memprediksi laba bersih TLKM berpotensi tumbuh 14,6% tahun ini, sementara EXCL berpotensi mencatat laba positif dari tahun lalu yang mencatat kerugian. Selain itu, rupiah yang stabil juga akan membantu laba bersih EXCL seiring tidak adanya rugi selisih kurs yang signifikan. EXCL juga berencana melakukan rights issue dengan target dana minimal USD 500 juta tahun ini untuk melunasi utang USD.

Kami optimis terhadap industri telekomunikasi. Kami melihat tahun 2016 merupakan tahun positif bagi telekomunikasi, kami merekokmendasikan BELI untuk TLKM dengan target harga Rp3.900, mengimplikasikan EV/EBITDA 6,5x, dan juga BELI untuk EXCL dengan target harga Rp4.700, mengimplikasikan EV/EBITDA 5,0x.
Mar 21,2016 08:22:07
Telekomunikasi Indonesia ($TLKM),
4Q15/FY15 Results Call Takeaways

Telkom remains a BUY with TP raised to IDR4,000 (from IDR3,600, 18% upside, 11% WACC, 1.5% TG) after rolling forward our valuations. Key takeaways from the FY15 results call were lumpy one-offs booked in 4Q15, longer-term tax savings from assets revaluations, FY15 dividend payout look set to be maintained at 60% and guidance of double-digit revenue growth. The firm is our Top Pick for Indo telco exposure and our preferred ASEAN-4 telco pick. This is on account of its balance sheet strength, superior ROEs and attractive dividend yields.

¨ IndiHome constrained by lack of installation teams. The growth of Telkom Indonesia’s (Telkom) triple play bundled fibre service has been hampered by the lack of installers (1.1m subscribers (subs) of 10m premises passed for fibre at end-Dec 2015). This suggests that demand for its new bundled offering is likely to be capped in the medium term until the company mobilises new installers. Telkom is targeting 10,000 installers by year-end from 4,800 currently. We draw parallels with Telekom Malaysia’s (TM) (T MK, NEUTRAL, TP: MYR6.40) fibre broadband rollout, which encountered similar bottlenecks in the past. Telkom is vying for 3m fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) subs by end-2016 (30% take-up). The ARPU uplift from IndiHome is 2-3x that of regular fixed line ARPU.

¨ Dividend. Telkom expects FY15 payout to be sustained at FY14’s 60% level or higher, consistent with its broader payout policy of 50-70%. Assuming a constant payout, its dividend yield translates into 3%, ie still the highest among domestic peers. We expect future dividend payouts to be supported by the steady growth in Telkom’s FCF, with FCF yields projected at 6-7% for FY16-17.

¨ One-offs and forecast. The additional one-offs booked during 4Q15 comprised additional staff incentives at Telkomsel totalling IDR190bn and universal service obligation (USO) cost adjustments of IDR283bn. Telkom expects: i) revenue growth to be in line or higher than the market, ii) a slight decline in EBITDA margins, and iii) capex/sales of 22-25% for FY16. 60% of the overall capex is allocated for Telkomsel, with the remainder for the fixed broadband expansion. Our FY16-17 core earnings forecasts are trimmed by 5%/7% respectively after a few house-keeping adjustments, and we introduce FY18 numbers. Key downside risks to earnings are stronger-than-expected competition and higher-than-expected capex.

¨ Still our top Indo telco pick. Our DCF-based TP is raised to IDR4,000 (implying 6.5x FY17F EV/EBITDA) after rolling forward our valuations and adjusting for the latest net debt position. Telkom trades at inexpensive 5.7x FY17F EV/EBITDA. This is at a discount to its regional peers’ 9-10x, with valuations backed by its strong balance sheet and superior ROE/dividend yields. The stock remains one of our preferred ASEAN-4 telco exposures.

Source: RHB Securities
Mar 07,2016 09:06:53
Telekomunikasi Indonesia ($TLKM): Upgrade TP after strong 4Q15 results

Revise up EBITDA forecast in FY16/17. We revise up o Revise up EBITDA forecast in FY16/17. ur FY16 and FY17 EBITDA forecasts by 11% to Rp53tn and Rp55tn, respectively, on better overall top-line growth and relatively stable profitability. Our new revenue forecasts are 13% and 14% higher than the previous forecasts on a better outlook for the data segments (under Telkomsel), driven by stable data pricing and better subscribers growth.

4Q15 results reflect Telkomsel’s 4Q15 results reflect Telkomsel’ssupremacy in Indonesia supremacy in Indonesia cellular segments. We are more confident about TLKM cellular segments earnings outlook, as we believe Telkomsel will continue benefit from a more stable industry that was reflected in its 4Q15 performance. TLKM booked Rp14.3tn (+16% y-o-y, +6% q-oq) EBITDA in 4Q15, beating our expectation but in line with consensus. 4Q15 EBITDA margin hit 53.6%, the highest level in 2015.

Strong balance sheet. We also like TLKM for its str Strong balance sheet. ong balance sheet and zero exposure to foreign exchange rate fluctuations, unlike its smaller peers. This gives TLKM financial flexibility to maintain its growth momentum or keep paying dividends (with attractive yields of 4%).

Mar 07,2016 08:49:52
TLKM: Pertumbuhan Pelanggan dan ARPU yang kuat

BELI - Target Harga Rp3.900

TLKM mecatat laba bersih Rp15,5 triliun, tumbuh 7,03%yoy. Sesuai ekspektasi: 98% dari perkiraan kami dan konsensus Bloomberg. Jumlah pelanggan tumbuh 8,6% menjadi 152 juta pelanggan, dengan ARPU atau rata-rata pendapatan per pelanggan naik 10,9% menjadi Rp43ribu per bulan.

Didukung dengan pertumbuhan pelanggan dan ARPU yang kuat, kami meyakini TLKM akan memiliki pertumbuhan double digit di pendapatan sekitar 15% menjadi lebih dari Rp115 triliun tahun ini, hal ini akan membuat laba bersih juga akan memiliki pertumbuhan double digit yang signifikan. Pendapatan dari data tetap akan menjadi penopang pertumbuhan utama tahun ini, seiring penetrasi penggunaan smartphone yang terus meningkat.

Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi BELI dengan target harga Rp3.900, mengimplikasikan PER 2016 sebesar 18x.
Mar 01,2016 12:27:31
Staying Connected – February 2016

Spectrum developments dotted the Asean-4 telco landscape in recent weeks. Concerns over a competitive spectrum auction spooked MY investors just as the TH telcos prepare for the first tranche of spectrum payouts. We downgraded TH sector to UNDERWEIGHT on earnings concerns and intensifying competition. The MY telcos were earlier downgraded on auction fears albeit the about-turn in policy (spectrum assignment vs auction) prompted us to restore our NEUTRAL stance. The INDO telco sector remains the sole OVERWEIGHT of the Asean-4 telcos.

¨ ASEAN-4 telcos down 2.5% YTD. The strongest declines were see in MY (-11.6%) and SG (-5.2%) while both INDO and TH telcos gained 6-9%.

¨ Lost in translation. The announcement of a spectrum bidding exercise during the tabling of the revised Budget 2016 on 28 Jan clearly spooked investors. It was only a month earlier that the Thai Government raised a whopping USD6.5bn (MYR28bn) from an auction of the 900MHz band. A competitive bidding (a first for Malaysia) would have been value destructive for the sector. On 1 Feb, the Government announced that the 900/1800MHz spectrum would be re-allocated to Maxis, DiGi.Com (Digi), Celcom and U-Mobile under a new spectrum framework (kindly refer to our report dated 3 Feb – Telecommunications : A Fuzzy Line Restored). While the ‘awards’ ruled-out a cataclysmic auction, the ‘change of heart’ costs the telcos some MYR14bn in market capitalisation. Expect further details on the spectrum fees in the coming months. The remaining 5MHz on the 900MHz is likely reserved for the high speed rail (HSR).

¨ Singapore confirms a fourth mobile entrant. The Infocomm Development Authority (IDA) has set aside 60MHz for a new operator in a two-stage spectrum auction scheduled for 3Q16. This follows the announcement of the revised spectrum framework on 18 Feb (kindly refer to our report dated 19 Feb – Firing The Fourth Cylinder)

¨ Results season well underway – shaping up to be another lacklustre quarter. INDO telcos are seen to continue outperforming with the last of the results due late March. 4Q15 earnings season has ended for the SG telcos. Key takeaways were: i) the continuing sluggish mobile revenue from weak usage/roaming revenues, and ii) ARPU pressure from a stronger take-up of SIM-only plans. While the usual seasonality in subscriber acquisition cost (SAC) pummelled 4Q15 EBITDA, the impact was particularly acute for StarHub due to additional provisions and costs. It was also another lacklustre quarter for the Malaysian and Thai mobile operators due to weak consumer sentiment and heightened competition, with the TH telcos ramping-up handset subsidies to drive 3G/4G upgrades ahead of the spectrum transfers. The bright spot continues to be in Indonesia where a steady competitive environment and rapid mobile data take-up have hitherto driven the superior mobile revenue growth.

Feb 25,2016 09:10:23
TLKM group melakukan penggelaran kabel bawah laut di Medan sebagai bagian dari pembangunan konsorsium kabel bawah laut southeast Asia -middle east - western Europe5.
Feb 16,2016 14:48:46
Telkomsel targets its revenue to reach Rp84tn (US$6bn) in 2016, +10.5% YoY. Telkomsel Director of Sales, Mas’ud Khamid said that revenue in 2015 reached Rp76tn (US$5.4bn),+14.6% YoY. In 2016, Khamid explained that the company plans to boost data, which the company aims to contribute 40% of Telkomsel’s revenue guidance. Additionally, the company also will partner up with motorcycle taxi, Go-Jek apps to promote sales. Under a partnership agreement, Telkomsel will launch a new product called “Go-Pulsa” to enable Go-Jek drivers to sell phone credit vouchers valued between Rp50k (US$3.7) and Rp100k (US$7.4).


Feb 16,2016 14:48:02
Telkomsel targets its revenue to reach Rp84tn (US$6bn) in 2016, +10.5% YoY. Telkomsel Director of Sales, Mas’ud Khamid said that revenue in 2015 reached Rp76tn (US$5.4bn),+14.6% YoY. In 2016, Khamid explained that the company plans to boost data, which the company aims to contribute 40% of Telkomsel’s revenue guidance. Additionally, the company also will partner up with motorcycle taxi, Go-Jek apps to promote sales. Under a partnership agreement, Telkomsel will launch a new product called “Go-Pulsa” to enable Go-Jek drivers to sell phone credit vouchers valued between Rp50k (US$3.7) and Rp100k (US$7.4).
Feb 16,2016 14:46:03
Telkomsel targets its revenue to reach Rp84tn (US$6bn) in 2016, +10.5% YoY.Telkomsel Director of Sales, Mas’ud Khamid said that revenue in 2015 reached Rp76tn (US$5.4bn),+14.6% YoY. In 2016, Khamid explained that the company plans to boost data, which the company aims to contribute 40% of Telkomsel’s revenue guidance. Additionally, the company also will partner up with motorcycle taxi, Go-Jek apps to promote sales. Under a partnership agreement, Telkomsel will launch a new product called “Go-Pulsa” to enable Go-Jek drivers to sell phone credit vouchers valued between Rp50k (US$3.7) and Rp100k (US$7.4).
Oct 26,2015 06:37:57
Selamat pagi kakak, saya mahasiswi yang tengah menempuh skripsi.
Mohon bantuan kakak-kakak untuk mengisi dan menyebarkan kuesioner yang meneliti tentang perilaku investor berikut ya.

Segala bantuan akan sangat saya apresiasi. Terima kasih banyak telah meluangkan waktunya sebentar. ;);););)

Jun 09,2015 18:53:55
Defensive Stock. Watch List. 2,600 - 2,800

May 31,2015 12:41:25
Indonesia Top 10 companies by market cap


May 28,2015 15:52:37
TLKM dengan produk indiHOME seperti nya bakal masih kuat potensi naik nya.

Dengan P/E = 18.97 seperti nya masih cukup menarik untuk koleksi
May 26,2015 14:56:05
TLKM dengan produk indiHOME seperti nya bakal masih kuat potensi naik nya. Dengan P/E = 18.97 seperti nya masih cukup menarik untuk koleksi
May 21,2015 21:11:30
Our top picks: 5 mass consumption, 3 infrastructure related, 1 bank, and 1 industrial property. Top picks in Indonesia (in alphabetical order) 1 ADHI Adhi Karya 2 BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia 3 BEST Bekasi Fajar 4 GGRM Gudang Garam 5 INDF Indofood Sukses 6 JSMR Jasa Marga 7 KLBF Kalbe Farma 8 PTPP Pemb Perumahan 9 TLKM Telkom Indonesia 10 TELE Tiphone Mobile Indo Source: Maybank Kim Eng
Apr 29,2015 08:00:19
Indo Strategy - Positioning amidst slowest growth in a decade Too early to bottom fish The market sharp sell-down may appear excessive, yet we think it may be too early to be an aggressive buyer. The outlook of subdued growth outlook, probably a bit slower, broader and longer lasting than most envisaged, suggests it is still better to seek out stocks with relative earnings visibility. Indeed there is little indication to suggest this slowdown has stabilized thus far. Broad based slowdown Growth that was designed to slowdown in order to rein in CAD, e.g. BI allowing Rp to weaken for an essentially dollarized economy, has proven to be very potent. Weaker commodity prices along with the transition easing from the recent investment surge may well have contributed as well. Indeed, the recent earnings trend suggests a more pronounced and broad-based slowdown. This ranges from large ticket items to even basic consumer staples. Bellwether FMCGs that have already reported are showing that top-line growth running at a decade low pace (ex-GFC period); a reflection of weaker buying power and rising competition. Equally, we have also noticed an uptick in NPL though more toward the SME and micro segments. In addition, our channel checks across various industries, including bellwether consumer packaging, mostly reported a deteriorating environment. Slower and longer? Contrary to general expectations, we think it is premature to assume an economic recovery in 2H15. Indeed sub-5% growth for the year cannot be ruled out. Recently the capex trend suggests easing post the initial surge 3-4 years ago. That along with the job creation trend, easily half the pace seen in the past couple of years, is not supportive of any fast economic recovery in the second half. While we remain upbeat that the govt. infrastructure spending will be punchier into 2H, we think the direct economic impact would be muted. Indeed the more powerful multiplier effect will only be visible in the medium term. Indeed there is little indication to suggest this slowdown has already stabilized. As such, we believe stock picking toward earnings visibility and predictability will be key in this 'new normal'. Macro improving vs Micro worsening - Market context In balance, we think the market downside risk is limited; yet we think it may be too early to be an aggressive buyer. We think the macro environment is turning more positive, e.g. CAD possibly below BI's guidance of 1.6% in 1Q, along with easing inflation, etc. Politics too, seems to have stabilized, which should pave the way for the govt. to kick-start major infrastructure projects. Yet, faced with the possibly of the slowest growth in a decade (ex-GFC), along with flow favoring North Asia, we think stock picking towards better earnings visibility matters, notwithstanding the fact that initial sell-down tends to be indiscriminate. Within our DB Portfolio stocks, we think the following have high earnings visibility: BBCA and BBNI (Banks), TLKM (Telco), ICBP and KLBF (Consumer). Conversely, stocks that have done well in spite of worsening earnings fundamental such as ASII and UNTR appear more exposed. $IHSG
Apr 10,2015 01:38:15
Saat nya banyak saingan TLKM salah satu nya, MNCN Sinarmas juga masuk ke fibreoptik
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise.
3,950.00 80.00 (1.99%)
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Perse
Last Update 02:54:11