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P H
Sep 18,2017 09:09:37

Pasca Divestasi WTR dan Jalan Tol Tidak Tercapai

1H 2017 Result Review
Pendapatan PT. Waskita Karya Tbk. (WSKT) per semester I 2017 tumbuh 92,3% YoY menjadi Rp 15,55 triliun. Pendapatan dari bisnis konstruksi memberikan kontribusi terbesar atas total pendapatan perseroan. Pada semester I 2017 bisnis konstruksi berkontribusi sekitar 62% terhadap pendapatan perseroan. Kontribusi pendapatan dari jalan tol (toll-road) dan beton pracetak (precast) menyumbang masing-masing 26% dan 12% di semester I 2017. Kontribusi pendapatan dari konstruksi dan precast turun dibanding pada semester I 2016, karena meningkatnya kontribusi dari toll road. Meski demikian secara nominal pendapatan dari masing-masing unit bisnis itu mencatatkan kenaikan, bahkan hingga double digit. Pendapatan dari toll road naik hingga 73% YoY.

Laba usaha semester I 2017 meningkat 83,9% YoY menjadi Rp 2,44 triliun dan laba bersih (yang dapat diatribusikan ke entitas induk) naik 120,5% YoY menjadi Rp 1,28 triliun. Gross Profit Margin dan Operating Profit Margin turun di semester I 2017 tapi masih double digit. Sedang Net Profit Margin meningkat menjadi 9,2% dari 7,2%.

Pencapaian Kontrak

Hingga minggu I September 2017 WSKT telah membukukan kontrak baru senilai Rp 43 triliun. Kontrak baru proyek tersebut masih didominasi oleh proyek infrastruktur, khususnya jalan tol. Terdapat peningkatan kontrak baru sekitar Rp 15 triliun dari akhir Juli 2017 yang tercatat sebesar Rp 28 triliun. Waskita mencatatkan carry over dari tahun 2016 sekitar Rp 84 triliun. Dengan demikian hingga minggu I September 2017 Waskita Karya telah membukukan total kontrak sebesar Rp 127 triliun atau mencapai sekitar 88% dari target total kontrak tahun 2017. Waskita Karya menargetkan total kontrak (order book) sebesar Rp 144 triliun hingga akhir tahun 2017.

Saat ini Waskita Karya memiliki 5 proyek terbesar. Nilai kontrak untuk 5 proyek tersebut mencapai Rp 24,38 triliun. Perseroan masih membutuhkan dana untuk membiayai proyek-proyek perseroan. Sementara beberapa proyek Waskita Karya merupakan proyek dengan skema turnkey (turnkey project). Oleh karenanya dibutuhkan dana besar untuk menalangi pengerjaan proyek-proyek turnkey tersebut. Per Juni 2017 posisi piutang usaha perseroan mencapai sekitar Rp 3,4 triliun.

Divestasi WTR dan Jalan Tol
Waskita Karya melalui anak usahanya yaitu PT. Waskita Toll Road (WTR) awalnya berencana melakukan divestasi atas 10 ruas jalan tol. Selain itu perseroan juga menawarkan saham WTR melalui mekanisme rights issue. Kedua aksi korporasi itu bertujuan untuk memenuhi pendanaan proyek-proyek infrastruktur perseroan selanjutnya, terutama jalan tol. Hal itu untuk memperkuat WSKT sebagai developer jalan tol. Selain itu WSKT tidak ingin menguasai atau menjadi operator jalan tol dalam jangka panjang.

Namun dalam keterbukaan informasi di BEI pada 12 September 2017, manajemen menyatakan belum ada calon investor yang memenuhi target sesuai yang diharapkan oleh manajemen WTR. Dikabarkan bahwa penawaran yang masuk di bawah ekspektasi manajemen yaitu 2x PBV. Sebelumnya manajemen WSKT mensyaratkan atas divestasi itu sebagai berikut :
1. Pembangunan tetap dilakukan oleh WSKT
2. Pemilik baru harus bisa diterima oleh kreditur dari WSKT. Apabila pemilik baru tidak bisa menerima, maka pemilik baru harus membayar utang ke Bank Negara Indonesia.

Meski rencana divestasi belum sesuai rencana, WSKT dan WTR tetap berencana untuk melakukan divestasi ruas jalan tol tersebut. Skema divestasi tersebut masih dalam kajian manajemen. Waskita Karya memutuskan untuk tidak melanjutkan proses lelang 10 ruas tol dan menggantinya dengan skema negosiasi langsung one on one (satu per satu) dengan calon mitra strategis. Langkah itu ditempuh karena harga yang diajukan investor calon pembeli di bawah ekspektasi. Rencana divestasi itu dapat direalisasilan paling lambat pada semester I 2018, baik dengan skema menggandeng mitra strategis mau pun mendorong anak usaha melangsungkan penawaran umum saham perdana (Initial Public Offering/IPO). Perseroan memastikan akan tetap menjadi pemegang saham pengendali WTR dengan kepemilikan paling sedikit 51%.

Opsi penawaran umum perdana saham (Initial Public Offering/IPO) PT. Waskita Toll Road menjadi strategi terakhir apabila hasil rights issue dan divestasi tidak memuaskan. Manajemen menyatakan jika saham baru yang dikeluarkan WTR tidak ada peminat, maka perseroan akan menempuh opsi penawaran umum saham perdana (IPO). Rencana IPO tersebut baru dapat diputuskan pada semester I 2018.

Perseroan optimis akan divestasi jalan tol tersebut. Sebelumnya manajemen menyatakan bahwa nilai investasi jalan tol bisa meningkat 200%-300% dalam 2-3 tahun ke depan. Hal itu karena tidak ada land acquisition (lagi) dan jumlah mobil bertambah.

Saat ini Waskita Karya memiliki 18 ruas tol dan diperkirakan bertambah 3 ruas tol pada tahun 2017. Ruas jalan tol akan bertambah lagi pada tahun 2018, sesuai dengan kecepatan tender yang diikuti. Perseroan memperkirakan kebutuhan dana perusahaan mencapai Rp 10 triliun yang akan digunakan untuk membangun ruas tol baru.

Sumber Pendanaan Waskita Karya
Selain divestasi WTR dan jalan tol, untuk mendanai proyek-proyeknya Waskita berencana menerbitkan obligasi dengan mekanisme penawaran umum berkelanjutan (PUB) III senilai Rp 10 triliun. Tahap I akan diterbitkan sebesar Rp 3 triliun di tahun 2017. Sedang tahap II sebesar Rp 3 triliun pada semester I 2018 dan tahap III senilai Rp 2 triliun semester II 2018. Dana hasil emisi obligasi sebesar Rp 3 triliun itu akan digunakan untuk modal kerja perseroan. Sebesar 80% untuk pekerjaan konstruksi bangunan sipil, gedung serta rekayasa, pengadaan dan konstruksi (EPC) dan sebesar 20% untuk investasi di anak usaha dalam bentuk penyertaan modal. Seluruh investasi ke entitas anak dalam rangka ekspansi usaha yang diharapkan memberi kontribusi bagi kelangsungan bisnis perusahaan. Pada semester I 2017 kas dan setara kas perseroan tercatat sebesar Rp 7,5 triliun. Per Juni 2017 Waskita Karya posisi pinjaman bank perseroan sebesar Rp 5,4 triliun dan dana dari emisi obligasi Rp 6,5 triliun.

Waskita Karya pada tahun 2015 telah memperoleh pendanaan dengan mekanisme Penanaman Modal Negara (PMN) melalui rights issue. Waskita Karya memperoleh dana senilai Rp 5,3 triliun dari rights issue, yang terdiri dari Rp 3,5 triliun PMN pemerintah dan Rp 1,8 triliun dari publik. Peluang untuk memperoleh kembali pendanaan dari pemerintah rendah.

Sumber pendanaan (financing) perusahaan-perusahaan konstruksi, terutama BUMN, menjadi concern investor. Tidak terkecuali Waskita Karya. Ambisi pemerintah untuk merealisasikan program percepatan pembangunan infrastruktur terbentur pada anggaran pemerintah (APBN). Sementara BUMN karya juga menghadapi keterbatasan. Peluang pendanaan yang dimungkinkan adalah melalui penerbitan obligasi/surat utang, pinjaman bank atau skema B to B.

Prospek
Kebutuhan dana Waskita Karya untuk pembangunan jalan tol yang diperkirakan sebesar Rp 10 triliun semestinya bisa tercover oleh emisi obligasi dari penawaran umum berkelanjutan (PUB) III. Emisi obligasi tahap I senilai Rp 3 triliun itu diperkirakan bisa mengatasi pendanaan untuk mencapai target operasional di tahun 2017. Dana dari emisi obligasi sisanya sebesar Rp 7 triliun dapat dialokasikan untuk pendanaan di tahun berikutnya, sementara memproses persiapan divestasi WTR dan toll road atau IPO WTR.

Selain itu perseroan masih memiliki ruang pendanaan. Per Juni 2017 Debt (bank loan) to Equity Ratio Waskita Karya sebesar 2x. Sementara DER covenant bond sekitar 3x. Namun sejauh ini perseroan bersikap prudent dengan mempertahankan DER 2x. Perseroan juga memiliki interest coverage dan likuiditas yang baik. Mengingat keterbatasan pendanaan saat ini, bisa jadi dapat membatasi target perseroan di tahun 2018. Oleh karenanya target kontrak baru di tahun 2018 diperkirakan akan lebih konservatif, dengan asumsi rencana divestasi tidak terealisasi pada tahun 2018. Dengan kondisi saat ini, maka dalam pandangan Kami perseroan akan mempertimbangkan proyek-proyek berbasis non-turnkey. Perseroan yakin bahwa tertundanya divestasi tersebut tidak akan mengganggu target operasional perusahaan di tahun 2017. Perseroan menargetkan kontrak baru sebesar Rp 60 triliun, pendapatan Rp 22 triliun dan laba bersih Rp 3,5 triliun di tahun 2017.

Valuation
Relative Valuation

Dengan pendekatan relative valuation, Kami menggunakan estimasi PE’17F konsensus sektor konstruksi sebesar 13,5x dan EPS’17F Rp 173 yang mentranslasikan harga saham WSKT Rp 2300. Valuasi ini, dibandingkan harga saham WSKT Rp 1890 (12/9/17), dapat menjadi pertimbangan investasi.

Multiple Valuation
Saat ini WSKT diperdagangkan pada PE 10,9x atau di bawah rata-rata PE 3 tahun di 16,4x.

Harga saham WSKT terkoreksi 23,79% dalam setahun ini. Namun dalam periode 3 tahun saham WSKT telah naik 52,07% dibandingkan dengan IHSG yang menguat 14,84%.

$WSKT

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P H
Dec 19,2016 11:50:43

Waskita Karya ($WSKT) - Key Takeaways From Solo-Ngawi Toll Road Site Visit
 
We visited the Solo-Ngawi toll road located in Central Java. It forms part of the Trans Java Toll road and is regarded as one of the national top priority projects. Initially, the toll road was expected to be operational in 2018. However, given the smooth land acquisition and construction progress, it aims to open the toll road in Oct 2017. We maintain our BUY recommendation with an unchanged TP of IDR3,750 (51% upside). This is as the faster land clearing process would definitely benefit it since Waskita is the country’s second biggest toll road concession holder.

¨ Solo-Ngawi toll road. The project was initiated back in 2009 with a total length of 90km connecting the cities of Solo and Ngawi city. It was first expected to be operational in 2014. The toll road is divided into three sections. The first 20.9km (Kartasura-Karanganyar) was subsidised by the Government using the state budget. The other two sections (Karanganyar-Mantingan and Mantingan-Ngawi) were constructed by Solo Ngawi Jaya (SNJ),previously owned by Thiess Contractors Indonesia (Thiess). However, due to a land acquisition issue, construction was at a standstill. Hence, Jasa Marga ($JSMR) and Waskita KaryaToll Road (WTR), a subsidiary of Waskita Karya Persero (Waskita), took over the concession from Thiess in FY15.The Government now expects the Solo-Ngawi toll road to be completed in FY18. However, given the aggressive infrastructure development boost by President Joko Widodo, the land acquisition has been expedited as a result of the new land acquisition law. The toll road is likely to be opened during the Eid Al-Fitr holiday in 6M17 and fully operational in October the same year. Construction has now reached 51.56% completion and there are only around 50 land plots left to be cleared.

¨ Toll road to support the growth. With a recent concession signing of the Krian Legun di Bunder toll road, Waskita currently has around 15 toll roads, most of which are in complete toll roads. Having said that, we think that Waskita would have the highest earnings visibility ahead. This is as we expect its total orderbook to likely easily hit around IDR120trn in FY17, which is sufficient for its revenue for the next three years. We also think that its imminent plan to divest WTR to Sarana Multi Infrastruktur (SMI) and national pension fund PT Taspen Persero would alleviate its burden on cash flow and balance sheet.

¨ Diminishing land acquisition risk. Given the new land law in early 2015, we see some progress on infrastructure development in Indonesia. While execution of the bill was lacking in the first six months after its issuance, there has been faster progress from the concession owner and Government in clearing the land area for the projects. We saw this during our site visit to the 2x1,000MW Batang power plant (Lower Execution Risk Underpins Positive Outlook)and Solo-Ngawi toll road. The law stipulates that if there are no counter charges from the land owner within 14 days of the submission of the land value appraisal to the court, an execution order would be issued to start construction over that land.

¨ BUY with TP of IDR3,750. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the construction sector, with Waskita as our Top Pick. As the biggest toll road contractor in the country, itis slated to be a direct beneficiary of the faster land acquisition process. We maintain our BUY call with a TP of IDR3,750, based on 23x FY17F P/E. (Dony Gunawan)

 

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P H
Dec 16,2016 11:50:51

JSMR and WTR consortium plans IDR2.7tn investment

Solo Ngawi Jaya, the consortium of Jasa Marga ($JSMR) and Waskita Toll Road (WTR),a subsidiary of Waskita Karya ($WSKT), is planning IDR2.7tn investment on Salatiga-Solo toll road in 2017. Furthermore, this 29km toll road will be constructed within 18 months. (Investor Daily)

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P H
Nov 30,2016 11:45:13

Indonesia Strategy: Managing Volatility
We opine that Indonesia’s fundamentals remain pointed towards long-term positives. This is underpinned by BI’s pro-growth policies to propel economic growth, the low inflation environment, continued government focus on infrastructure spending, and the security forces’ exemplary conduct in maintaining stability as political tensions rise. Thus, we expect stronger market direction post the Fed’s anticipated rate hike in December.

¨ Outflows dominate. Worries over a potential US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase and weakening IDR have triggered outflows in both the equities and fixed income markets. This is a reversal after months of inflows. Post Donald Trump’s win in the recent US elections, the JCI continues to trade at sub-5,200 level, with outflows recorded at IDR9.6tnin November. Similarly, outflows in the fixed income market have deepened, reaching IDR17trn over the past month, with the 10-year government bond continuing to escalate to 8.3% (August: +6.3%). Arguably, a lack of catalysts in the market have also led to the insipid performances, and we are only expecting stronger market direction post the Fed rate increase that is expected by mid-December.

¨ The three spectres are currency, interest rate trends and politics. As highlighted in our 14 Nov 2016 Currency Woes Dampen Sentiment report, the fundamentals still point towards a resilient IDR. This is underpinned by its high-yield differential vs developed market (DM) economies and peers, relatively high levels of growth among major emerging market (EM) economies, and ongoing reforms. Rising current account deficit (CAD) over the next few years is still manageable, while forex reserve levels also improved to USD115bn.

¨ Action by Bank Indonesia (BI) to intervene in the currency market is plausible to indicate direction. An influx of asset repatriation is also expected towards year-end, which would help the IDR to recuperate to a more favourable level. We opine that BI would maintain its current relaxation bias policy to propel economic growth, especially given the subdued inflationary outlook. As the series of rate cuts have yet to result in a meaningful economic trajectory, it is unlikely that the central bank would take the risk by reversing its current relaxation policy.

¨ Over the past five years, the spread between the BI rate and inflation has averaged 130bps vs the current 145bps spread. This provides room for further relaxation if needed. We expect BI to maintain its current benchmark rate until year-end, and potentially make another 25bps cut in early 2017 to further support economic growth under stable IDR circumstances.

¨ Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama’s alleged religious defamation has raised the political landscape’s temperature, as seen by the magnitude of the anti-Basuki rally that occurred earlier this month. This upheaval is negatively perceived by investors, especially after >2 years of stable politics. The market is likely to take heed of the next rally and, more importantly, how the Government handles the situation. So far, the security forces have been exemplary in restoring stability. We continue to believe that the Government’s position remains strong. As long as these forces remain united under presidential control, any act that destabilises the country can be brought under control quickly.

¨ Commodity plays and blue chips. We like PP London Sumatra (Lonsum) and United Tractors as commodity plays. Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI), Astra International, Ciputra Development, Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD), Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Telkom), Indofood Sukses Makmur and Waskita Karya are all stocks with strong fundamentals. (Helmy Kristanto)

$LSIP $BBNI $CTRA $BSDE $TLKM $INDF $WSKT

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P H
Nov 22,2016 12:55:52

10M16 new contracts update: Waskita Karya ($WSKT) – Rp61tn, Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP) – Rp27.4tn

For WSKT, the 10M16 new contracts achievement translates to 87% of its 2016FY target of Rp70tn. Meanwhile, PTPP’s management believes that its 10M16 new contracts achievement is on-track to its 2016FY target of Rp31tn. In separate news, Wijaya Karya has become the lowest bidder for Rp40.1tn worth of projects although not all the projects have been signed by 10M16. (Bisnis Indonesia)

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P H
Nov 15,2016 22:49:40

JSMR estimates IDR16.4tn for Jakarta-Cikampek Elevated rail

Jasa Marga ($JSMR) is estimating the Jakarta-Cikampek Elevated rail project investment would amount to IDR16.4tn with 36.4km of length. However, JSMR has 60% ownership of the project with a 45-year concession, while the remaining 40% is owned by Waskita Karya ($WSKT). (Bisnis Indonesia)

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P H
Nov 14,2016 17:09:33

Indonesia: Currency update: IDR depreciation: Don’t panic
 
Effects of a shallow FX market; Buying opportunities exist
Based on Bank Indonesia’s data, ytd the average daily turnover for the IDR spot market is only USD1.7bn, which is shallow by regional standards, reflecting just 0.5x of GDP (exhibit 1), one of the lowest among its regional peers. Even worse is the 1M NDF market, which only trades at USD0.7bn a day ytd. Unfortunately, the NDF sometimes can influence the spot market, particularly on pressure stemming from the recent Trump election. However, given such illiquidity, we advise investors to remain calm, particularly as we believe the fundamentals in Indonesia remain largely unchanged. We note that, through years of balance sheet repair since the 1998 Financial Crisis, the Indonesian stock market’s net gearing has improved from more than 150% back then to 27.3% in 9M16. Furthermore, we believe Indonesia is currently in a good position given that its 3Q16 CAD of 1.86% is the lowest since 1Q12. In fact, we think the current situation presents buying opportunities for investors as we expect the IDR to become stronger by year-end. It is worth pointing out that there should still be around USD10bn to come in from tax amnesty repatriation between now and the end of 2016.

Sensitivity analysis: 1% weaker IDR = 0.9% market EPS
Given recent IDR gyrations, we present our latest currency sensitivity analysis on the IDR/1USD, in an effort to aid investors in better gauging their investments in Indonesia. Our study, based on 87 non-financial stocks under our coverage (62% of total JCI market capitalization), shows that each 1% IDR depreciation could lower the EPS of our covered stocks by 0.9% overall (exhibit 5). That said, it is not a surprise that a recent 3% negative swing in the NDF market spooked investors, as it could translate into a 3.6% wipeout in 2017 market EPS growth.  

Winners: Coal, Metals, Oil & Gas and Plantations

A stronger dollar should in general spell good news for sectors with dollar revenue such as Coal, Metals and Oil & Gas and Plantations (exhibit 5). By stock, our sensitivity analysis indicates that $SIMP, $WINS, $TBLA, $PTBA and $SGRO should be the major beneficiaries of IDR deprecation within our basket of stocks (exhibit 2).

Losers: Poultry, Property and Consumer Discretionary
Against a backdrop of a weaker IDR, sectors with large USD costs and borrowings should suffer: Poultry, Property and Consumer Discretionary (exhibit 5). Stock-wise, losers of a stronger dollar include heavily leveraged companies under our coverage: $SMCB, $LPKR and $MAPI (exhibit 3).

Safe havens: Mainly Construction and Telcos  

For investors seeking shelter from currency volatility, we point to the Construction and Telco sectors (exhibit 10 & 24). In terms of stocks, $JSMR, $SCMA, $SIDO and $WSKT (exhibit 4) should have their earnings relatively least altered by FX swings.


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P H
Nov 14,2016 10:00:51

Strategy: Currency Woes Dampen Sentiment

Sharp correction in JCI (down 4% on Friday) was mainly triggered by precipitous IDR weakening on external factors, while domestic macro improvements remain on track. We believe fundamentals still point to a resilient IDR, especially given Indonesia’s relatively high levels of growth among major EM economies. Consumer, pharmaceutical, poultry and high-end retailers would be at risk of IDR weakening, while commodities and heavy equipment players tend to benefit. High dividend yield stocks also offer protection in the current volatile market. Maintain LT positive view.

¨ Currency volatility is back on. Fears over potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike resulted in IDR falling by up to 3% to IDR13,545/USD onFriday. Considerable IDR weakening could lead to higher production costs and potential cost overruns in certain infrastructure projects, which would lead to higher inflation and growth risks. Strong foreign fund inflows have also increased risks.

¨ Indonesia is still on track for macro improvement, in our view particularly with its rising forex reserve of USD115bn and potential influx of repatriated funds by end-2016. However, the weakening IDR is seen as the main spectre for investors and its occurrence could trigger a market melt-down due to panic selling, shifting focus away from real fundamentals. Thus, BI’s firm response and action would be critical in restoring stability and confidence, in our view. We opine that IDR volatility would still linger before it recovers to IDR13,200/USD by end-2016.

¨ Stronger fundamentals now. There have been several episodes of high IDR volatility, with the last one occurring during 2014-15, when IDR depreciated as much as 30% and JCI suffered 13% losses. In our view, the current situation is different especially given the positive macro environment, in contrast to the subdued economic situation during 2014-15,on BI’s tightening rate policy bias.

¨ BI is already in the market to stabilise the currency given considerable depreciation in IDR, and we view this intervention as plausible to show direction. Current account deficit also remains manageable at 2.1% in 9M16 (3Q16: 1.8%) vs peak of 4.3% in 2014.We expect IDR to weaken slightly to 13,600/USD by 3Q17 on the back of larger current account deficit and potential Fed rate hike.

¨ Resilient IDR. In summary, we opine that fundamentals point to a resilient IDR, underpinned by high yield differentials vs developed market (DM) economies and peers, relatively high levels of growth among major emerging market (EM) economies, and ongoing reforms. Domestic consumption and government-led infrastructure spending also continue to serve as supporting factors for economic growth improvements and we still expect the economy to grow at 5.3% in 2017.

¨ Impact of weakening IDR. IDR weakening would impact corporate earnings through operational currency mismatch and/or forex debt translation. Consumer, pharmaceutical, poultry and high-end retailers have high importation costs and would be at risk. Conversely, exporters such as commodities and heavy equipment players would tend to benefit. Companies with high USD debt would also be negatively impacted if IDR weakening continues.

¨ All in, commodities and high dividend yield stocks offer some shield, in our view. We like London Sumatra and United Tractors as commodity plays, while Indocement Tunggal and Hexindo Adiperkasa offer highest dividend yields. Stocks with strong fundamentals for potential bottom-fishing include Bank Negara Indonesia, Astra International, Ciputra Development, Bumi Serpong Damai, Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Indofood Sukses Makmur and Waskita Karya. (Helmy Kristanto)

$BBNI $ASII $CTRA $ BSDE $TLKM $INDF $WSKT $UNTR $LSIP $INTP $HEXA

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P H
Nov 10,2016 23:01:55

Trump victory - the impact on Indonesia
 
JCI went into considerable correction, down as much as 2.4% during the intraday, following the prospect of Trump’s winning. Selling pressure were visible across sector, with IDR also depreciated 0.9%. Closer to end of trading hour, market slightly improved mainly led by a rebound on commodity counters, with index closed down 1% with IDR relatively flat.
 
The Trump’s winning undoubtedly creates uncertainty, especially on the execution and direction of what would be the policy under his administrative, on both economy and politic. According to our economist, historical facts imply that a clean sweep tends to be more positive for the US economy in general because of less gridlock. As such, with Republican sweep (Trump President and GOP Congress), fiscal policy, both from higher spending and lower taxes, is likely to be more expansionary over the next four years on average. It is still too early to conclude for any potential downward revision on economic growth at this stage.
 
One of the main concerns of the Trump administration would be on potential trade protectionist (anti-trade) issue. In regards of Indonesia, the main export products to the US would be textile, rubber product, shoes, electronics and F&B with export to US accounts for 12% of total non oil and gas export. However, the impact the share of export to GDP in Indonesia remains the lowest in the region at 22% (Vs Thailand’s 58%, Malaysia 73% and Singapore 198%), which would provide much-needed shelter under global economy volatility circumstances. Domestic consumption and government-led infrastructure spending continue to serve as the underpinning factors for economic growth improvement and we still expect economy growth at 5.3% in 2017.

Our economist still expect that the Fed is likely to go ahead with its tightening policy bias and raise rate by 25 bps this December. As such, one of the palpable risks would be on currency of which IDR has enjoyed 5% appreciation ytd. Any sudden increase in volatility could risk of escalation of importation of raw material and potential cost overrun in certain infra projects, which undoubtedly will led to inflation and growth risk. In our view, this risk would be contained, especially as: 1. Indonesia rising forex reserve of USD115b and expected to reach USD150b by 2017; 2. Repatriation fund inflow by end of the year; and 3. Record low inflation outlook at sub-4% level.
 
Acknowledging potential change in global trade and politics, Indonesia with its domestic consumption at the core, remains to offer attractive investment thesis. At this stage, we see no change on Indonesia fundamental investment story, and maintain our constructive view mainly underpin by macro improvement and government-led infrastructure investment. Our top picks in the market mainly comprise of company with strong balance and visible earnings growth and they are: $BBNI, $CTRA, $BSDE, $TLKM, $INDF and $WSKT. To play on the positive rally on the commodity, we like LSIP and UNTR. (Helmy Kristanto)

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P H
Nov 08,2016 19:08:48

Escalation in political tension; Macro improvement remains intact

While demonstration arguably has became part of life in Jakarta, last Friday’s demonstration would be one of the largest, reported to gather c. 50,000 people. The action were joined by many Moslem organisations from several regions to protest against Basuki T. Purnama (Ahok) on the allegation of religious defamation. The demonstration was mostly running in peace and calm order, but suddenly escalate into chaos at c.6 pm, the cut off time limit given by police. Couple of police trucks were burned with several casualty was reported on both side. The chaos only occurred in two specific locations, outside the Presidential Palace and one location in North Jakarta, with one Indomaret convenience store was looted. On Sunday, the police mentioned that the perpetrators of chaos in North Jakarta were unrelated to the one in Presidential Palace, and appears to be purely criminal act.

3 key messages from President Jokowi

We were encouraged by the way of the police and army to act quickly to restore the stability with tear gas, water cannon and truncheons, with strict order that rubber bullet was not allowed to be used. The situation was mostly under control past midnight.

Presiden Jokowi held press conference on early Saturday, with 3 key messages: 1. He condemned the chaos and violent demonstration;2. The legal process of Jakarta governor alleged transgressions would be concluded quickly and transparently and 3. Political actors are believed to ride on yesterday's chaos. In our view, the third points would signify escalation of political tension, which would led the government to make stronger intelligence effort and beef up security to prevent the whole situation to heighten. President Jokowi has also delayed his trip to Australia (scheduled: 6-8 Nov) to focus in restoring domestic stability.

Negative pressure is expected but macro improvement is still on tract

JCI has priced in a peaceful rally on Friday, with index closed up +0.6% ( +1.1% from Friday's low). Selling pressure is expected to happen on Monday, especially on the potential higher volatility of IDR.

There is also growing concern in relation to the prospect of asset repatriation under the current tax amnesty scheme. While the repatriation has been reported to the tax office, the physical transfer of that assets are still underway, with deadline by end of December. As such, it is imperative for the government to act quickly to restore confidence.

Despite Friday’s chaos, we see no change on Indonesia fundamental investment story, underpin by macro improvement and government-led infrastructure investment. Our top pick in the market are: $BBNI, $CTRA, $BSDE, $TLKM, $INDF and $WSKT.

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P H
Nov 08,2016 18:34:36

Waskita Karya ($WSKT) aims to grow 2017 net profit by 50% to Rp2.7tn

Supported by its toll road construction business, WSKT expects total 2017 revenues to reach Rp35tn, up around 40% from its 2016F sales of Rp24-25tn. The company also target to increase total assets by Rp30tn which would be funded by through additional equity (Rp10tn) and other financing option (Rp20tn). The company targets to develop 1,000km toll road projects by the end 2016.

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P H
Jul 27,2016 08:50:24
EARNINGS CALENDAR (Half Year 2016 - Estimated)

JULY 2016

Jul 25, 2016 :
$BBTN (Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 26, 2016
$BDMN (Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT)
$BMRI (Persero) Tbk PT Earnings Release - 4:00PM GMT+7

Jul 27, 2016
$AALI (Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT)
$HMSP (Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT)
$LPPF (Matahari Department Store Tbk PT)
$MPPA (Matahari Putra Prima Tbk PT)
$PTBA (Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk PT)

Jul 28, 2016
$ASII (Astra International Tbk PT)
$BEST (Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Tbk PT)
$BJBR (PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk)
$DOID (Bloomberg)
$NCO (Vale Indonesia Tbk PT)
$JPFA (Bloomberg)
$PSAB (Bloomberg)
$SSMS (Bloomberg)
$SMGR (Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$UNTR (United Tractors Tbk PT)
$UNVR (Unilever Indonesia Tbk PT)

Jul 29, 2016
$ASRI (Alam Sutera Realty Tbk PT)
$ADHI (Bloomberg)
$BSDE (Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk PT)
$BNGA (Bloomberg)
$BNLI (Bloomberg)
$BNII (Bloomberg)
$BKSL (Bloomberg)
$BHIT (Bloomberg)
$BISI (Bloomberg)
$CPIN (Bloomberg)
$CTRA (Ciputra Development Tbk PT)
$CTRP (Bloomberg)
$ELSA (Bloomberg)
$GIAA (Bloomberg)
$GJTL (Bloomberg)
$GGRM (Gudang Garam Tbk PT)
$NKP (Bloomberg)
$INTP (Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk PT)
$INDF (Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$ICBP (Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk PT)
$INDY (Bloomberg)
$KARW (Bloomberg)
$KAEF (Bloomberg)
$KIJA (Bloomberg)
$KLBF (Kalbe Farma Tbk PT)
$KRAS (Bloomberg)
$LPKR (Lippo Karawaci Tbk PT)
$LSIP (Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk PT)
$MAPI (Bloomberg)
$PWON (Bloomberg)
$PNBN, $PNLF, $PNIN (Bloomberg)
$PTPP (Bloomberg)
$RALS (Bloomberg)
$SMRA (Bloomberg)
$TBLA (Bloomberg)
$TLKM (Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$TOTL (Bloomberg)
$WSKT (Bloomberg)

AUGUST 2016
Aug 1, 2016
$HRUM (Harum Energy Tbk PT)
$SSIA (Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk PT)

Aug 10, 2016
$ITMG (Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk PT)

Aug 12, 2016
$EXCL (XL Axiata Tbk PT)

Aug 29, 2016
$ADRO (Adaro Energy Tbk PT)
$ANTM (Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk PT)
$BBRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT)
$ISAT (Indosat Tbk PT)
$PGAS (Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PT)

SEPTEMBER

Sep 13, 2016
$SMCB (Holcim Indonesia)

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P H
May 16,2016 09:07:35
MSCI INDONESIA SMALL CAP INDEX
Additions: Garuda Indonesia (GIAA)

Deletions: Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate (BEST) & Tiphone Mobile Indonesia (TELE)

MSCI INDONESIA STANDARD INDEX
Additions: Waskita Karya Persero (WSKT)
Deletions: Astra Agro Lestari (AALI)

$GIAA $BEST $TELE $WSKT $AALI


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P H
May 13,2016 09:23:41

WSKT Bakal Kantongi Rp8 Triliun

Bisnis Indonesia memberitakan PT Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk. pada 2016 membidik Rp8 triliun dari divestasi sebagian kepemilikan saham di satu anak usaha dan penerbitan saham baru satu anak usaha lainnya melalui penawaran saham perdana.

 

Emiten konstruksi pelat merah berkode saham WSKT itu berencana mendivestasikan 30%-40% kepemilikannya dalam PT Waskita Toll Road (WTR). Per 25 April 2016, Waskita Karya memiliki 99,99% saham dalam perusahaan pengoperasian dan pemeliharaan jalan tol itu. Saat ini, WTR memiliki 12 konsesi yang sedang dibangun dengan total panjang 515,4 kilometer.

 

Direktur Keuangan PT Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk. Tunggul Rajagukguk mengatakan investor yang akan membeli saham divestasi tersebut sudah ada. Saat ini dalam proses uji tuntas (due diligence) dan ditargetkan transaksi terjadi pada Juli 2016.

 

"Ada, tapi saya belum bisa beritahu. Mereka lagi due diligence, investor lokal, BUMN kurang lebih," katanya, Rabu (11/5). Menurutnya, calon pembeli bukanlah perusahaan konstruksi dan bukan pula PT Jasa Marga (Pereero) Tbk. (JSMR). Dari aksi divestasi saham di WTR itu, Waskita Karya menargetkan mengantongi dana Rp4 triliun.

Bull
P H
May 02,2016 08:49:50
Waskita 1Q16 net profits jumps ten-fold, above expectation

Waskita Karya ($WSKT) 1Q16 net profit grew by 968% YoY to Rp127.3 bn. This accounted for 7.6% of our FY16F, which looked very strong compared to average 1.3% achieved in the last 3 years. This was driven by rising sales (+137% YoY) and margin expansion across the board with GPM, OPM and NPM expanded by 300-460bps. 1Q16 operating profit jumped almost four-fold to Rp384 bn, already meeting 17% of our FY16 opr profit forecast, which we believe ahead of our expectation given average 1Q/FY operating profit of 10% since the company’s IPO in 2012. We cannot mention segment performance yet as the company will make correction on note to 1Q16 financials.

Comment : Following stronger-than-expected 1Q16 numbers, we are likely to revise up our earnings forecast and TP to above Rp3,000 for WSKT using historical peak PER of 25x. Our current TP is Rp2,600

Bull
P H
Apr 26,2016 09:00:30
Higher Infrastructure Spending: Where Does The Money Come From?
 
¨ The government’s energy subsidy reform has allowed it to increase its infrastructure spending since 2015 via saving from the subsidy.

¨ Indonesia’s state budget, however, will likely face downward pressure due to lower-than-expected oil price compared with the budget’s assumption of USD50/barrel. Taking into account our macro assumptions of the government continues its spending in 2016, coupled with the uncertainty of tax amnesty bill to be introduced in 1H16, we project the fiscal deficit to widen to 2.7% of GDP, from last year’s -2.5% of GDP.

¨ Nonetheless, to overcome the income shortfall, the government plans to cut its budget expenditure. This will likely affect the country’s economic growth somewhat, posing a downside risk to our real GDP growth forecast of 5.1% for 2016.

¨ In the short run, excise duties on selected products could be increased, including tobacco, fuel, and vehicles. Over the medium term, tax reform should aim at broadening the tax base and increasing the VAT rate, while tax administration should adopt a risk-based approach to reduce tax evasion.

$WSKT $ADHI $PTPP $WIKA
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P H
Apr 22,2016 09:54:40
Waskita Karya recorded IDR130bn net profit

Waskita Karya (WSKT) stated that it recorded net profit of IDR130bn (+992.4% YoY) in 1Q16 or 6.5% from its target of IDR2trn for FY16. The company’s revenue stood at IDR3.5trn (+239.8% YoY) for 1Q16 or 11.6% from its revenue target of IDR30trn. The company stated that its net profit achievement is in line with its target. The company is optimistic amid its contract achievement for infrastructure projects including the LRT project in Palembang. As of 1Q16 the company booked IDR8trn of new contracts or 12.7% from its total new contract target of IDR63trn. Waskita stated that 60% of the new contracts booked come from toll roads projects, 20% from government projects, 10% from private projects, while the remaining from SOEs projects.
 
Moreover, Waskita is planning to accelerate the IPO for its subsidiary,Waskita Beton. The IPO target is moved from September 2016 to August 2016. The company targets to receive IDR4trn from the IPO. The proceeds will be used to increase the subsidiary’s precast and ready mix production. With the IPO, Waskita Karya will release 40% of its subsidiary shares to the public.

$WSKT
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P H
Apr 20,2016 10:44:39
Berkah Trans Jawa bagi Waskita

Investor Daily memberitakan PT Waskita Karya Tbk (WSKT) akan menjadi perusahaan konstruksi yang paling diuntungkan oleh percepatan pembangunan ruas tol Trans Jawa. Keikutsertaan ini tidak saja memperkuat investasi tol perseroan, tetapi juga membawa dampak positif pada bisnis konstruksi dan beton pracetak (precast) perseroan ke depan.
Sebagaimana diketahui, Waskita Karya telah memenangkan 6 dari 19 seksi ruas tol Trans Jawa, seperti Pemalang-Batang, Solo-Ngawai, Ngawi-Kertosono. Saat ini, perseroan tengah menggarap 11 ruas jalan tol baik secara konsesi atau mandiri dengan investasi total Rp 51,5 triliun.

Analis Trimegah Securities mengatakan, perseroan diuntungkan atas gencarnya investasi proyek tol. Apalagi dengan adanya keinginan pemerintah untuk mempercepat penyelesaian ruas tol Trans Jawa dengan target tahun 2018.
Tidak hanya menguntungkan bisnis konstruksi dan investasi jalan tol, dia mengatakan, segmen beton pra cetak (precast) juga diuntungkan atas peningkatan proyek jalan tol tersebut
 
Meski membawa dampak positif, Trimegah Securities menyoroti, besarnya investasi proyek tol akan berdampak terhadap kebutuhan dana dalam jumlah besar untuk beberapa tahun mendatang. Besarnya kebutuhan dana tersebut, berpeluang mengangkat rasio utang (DER) perseroan menjadi 100,2%, dibandingkan akhir tahun lalu sekitar 85,5%.
“Melihat kebutuhan dana bersifat jangka panjang tersebut, tidak menutup kemungkikan bagi perseroan untuk menerbitkan saham baru ke depan,” tulisnya.

Berbagai faktor tersebut mendorong Trimegah Securities untuk mempertahankan rekomendasi beli saham WSKT dengan target harga Rp 2.500. Target harga tersebut juga merefleksikan estimasi kenaikan penjualan perseroan menjadi Rp 19,87 triliun tahun ini, dibandingkan realisasi tahun lalu Rp 14,15 triliun. Laba bersih diproyeksikan naik menjadi Rp 1,4 triliun, dibandingkan pencapaian tahun lalu Rp 1,04 triliun.
Danareksa Sekuritas tetap mempertahankan rekomendasi beli saham WSKT dengan target harga Rp 2.150.

$WSKT
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P H
Apr 11,2016 09:44:59
Infrastructure is a hot commodity in ASEAN. With global economy remains uncertain, the focus has shifted to domestic sectors such as infrastructure. Today we published a 130-page report on ASEAN infrastructure where we look at, among other things, opportunities, funding requirements and challenges across countries in ASEAN. In Indonesia, we continue to be positive on infrastructure sector, and believe the country has reached a point where it is in a desperate need for infrastructure. You can see from various publications and statistics that Indonesia needs infrastructure in almost all sectors, such as power, roads, airports, seaports, etc. So, it is the right strategy by the government not to prioritize one sector over another. In terms of sector attractiveness, we think power sector is on top of our list due to, among other things, less risk in currency mismatch and abundant sources of energy. The next attractive one is road sector. That is our first takeaway.
 
Our second takeaway is that government has strong support for infrastructure as shown by big allocation for infrastructure in the state budget (over 2% of GDP which is the highest ever). However, state budget is not the only funding source because funding from SOE and private sectors accounts for more than 50% of total funding needs, suggesting diversified funding. Despite high reliance on SOE and private sectors, the government does not provide any guarantee for projects, suggesting fiscal prudent policy. The government will continue providing their supports through, for instance, accelerations of permit issuances.
 
In conclusion, we reiterate our positive view on the sector. Construction, toll road and property companies will be the main beneficiaries. We have chosen three stocks as top picks in Indonesia: $PTPP, $WSKT and $BSDE.
 
In terms of risk factor, implementation especially in land acquisition is the biggest one.
Bull
P H
Mar 07,2016 10:10:42
Wijaya Karya Beton ($WTON), We Expect Its GPM To Improve ….

… although it may still be below its historical highs of 13.1-14.9% since competition in the precast industry may intensify this year as its competitors increase their capacities. Also uncertainty of the high-speed train project could have a negative impact on its performance. FY15 NPAT was above our estimates, but lower then consensus, therefore we remain NEUTRAL on Wika Beton, while our DCF-derived TP of IDR870 (from IDR830, 8% downside) implies a 31.9x FY16F P/E.

¨ Competition remains stiff. We expect Wijaya Karya Beton (Wika Beton) to see intense competition from other state-owned enterprises (SOEs) such as Waskita Karya ($WSKT), Pembangunan Perumahan ($PTPP) and Adhi Karya ($ADHI). Waskita Karya is scheduled to grow its capacity to 2.35m tonnes pa from 1.63m tonnes pa and would become the second biggest precast producer in the market. Meanwhile, Pembangunan Perumahan may add 400,000 tonnes pa production capacity via its facilities in Sentul and Bekasi.

¨ We expect GPM to recover this year, given increased spending by the Government, while Wika Beton’s parent Wijaya Karya’s ($WIKA) new contract target would benefit the former. Thus, we expect its GPM to improve to approximately 12.8% in FY16-17, vs 12.4% last year. However, this is far below its historical high GPMs of c.13.1-14.9% (recorded in 2012-2014), given the potentially tough competition in the precast industry.

¨ The high-speed train (HST) project still has an uncertain future. The Ministry of Transportation has not given yet the approval for the project to the consortium (made up of Indonesian SOEs and a Chinese partner) tasked to the project. Meanwhile, the Chinese counterpart is requesting for a guarantee from the Government. While revenue contribution from the HST project may reach IDR6trn-8trn in 3-4 years, we expect contributions to begin in FY17– if the project goes through.

¨ FY15 results. Earnings of IDR174bn (-47% YoY) were about 9% above our estimate – but 10% below consensus – on lower-than-expected tax expenses, while revenue of IDR2.6trn (-19% YoY) was in line. GPM fell to 12.4% due to the lower utilisation rate early last year.

¨ Improvement in 4Q15. 4Q15 revenue (+68% QoQ, +16% YoY) contributed 42% of total revenue last year – above its normal c.27% contribution due to an increase in projects in the quarter. Meanwhile, NPAT surged >100% QoQ but fell by 18% YoY, due to the lower tax expenses.

¨ Maintain NEUTRAL with a DCF-derived TP of IDR870 (from IDR830) that also implies 31.2x FY16F P/E. Currently, the stock is trading at 33.9x FY16F P/E.
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Akim siregar
Jun 10,2015 16:52:07
#WSKT : Waskita Raya sets right issue price at 1450 rupiah each
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Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise.
WSKT
2,100.00 20.00 (0.94%)
Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk.
Last Update 02:54:11